Tuesday, October 9, 2018

Week 8: Undefeated ... but for how long? — RBA

Odds as of games through 2018-10-07

Legitimate Title Contenders

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.936 1 0.555 9 31.5 1 9.7 4 158.1 130
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01  32 Louisville 14 vs   1 Alabama 51 167 91.0%
2018/09/08  79 Arkansas St. 7 at   1 Alabama 57 187 97.1%
2018/09/15   1 Alabama 62 at  40 Mississippi 7 164 95.2%
2018/09/22  19 Texas A&M 23 at   1 Alabama 45 164 93.7%
2018/09/29 124 LA-Lafayette 14 at   1 Alabama 56 144 99.7%
2018/10/06   1 Alabama 65 at 103 Arkansas 31 153 99.1%
2018/10/13  36 Missouri 17 at   1 Alabama 45 166 91.7%
2018/10/20   1 Alabama 52 at  99 Tennessee 17 161 98.1%
2018/11/03   1 Alabama 27 at  12 LSU 20 159 83.1%
2018/11/10  17 Mississippi St. 13 at   1 Alabama 31 161 86.0%
2018/11/24  11 Auburn 14 at   1 Alabama 31 160 79.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 51.0%
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs Auburn Tigers, 79.4%


Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.882 2 0.536 49 27.5 3 10.1 8 163.1 117
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01 111 Oregon St. 31 at   3 Ohio St. 77 181 95.9%
2018/09/08 100 Rutgers 3 at   4 Ohio St. 52 166 97.3%
2018/09/15   3 Ohio St. 40 vs  13 TCU 28 187 40.5%
2018/09/22  95 Tulane 6 at   3 Ohio St. 49 161 93.7%
2018/09/29   2 Ohio St. 27 at   6 Penn State 26 190 46.6%
2018/10/06  61 Indiana 26 at   2 Ohio St. 49 188 90.0%
2018/10/13  66 Minnesota 17 at   2 Ohio St. 48 163 91.6%
2018/10/20   2 Ohio St. 35 at  50 Purdue 24 167 88.5%
2018/11/03  74 Nebraska 17 at   2 Ohio St. 52 165 93.5%
2018/11/10   2 Ohio St. 31 at  33 Michigan St. 20 164 83.2%
2018/11/17   2 Ohio St. 41 at  54 Maryland 21 164 89.3%
2018/11/24   6 Michigan 17 at   2 Ohio St. 28 163 56.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 32.0%
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs Michigan Wolverines, 56.8%


Second-Tier Hopefuls

UCF Knights
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.767 14 0.467 91 25.1 7 13.6 38 166.0 83
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/08/30  25 UCF 56 at 116 Connecticut 17 177 90.5%
2018/09/21  80 FL-Atlantic 36 at  25 UCF 56 187 80.7%
2018/09/29  65 Pittsburgh 14 at  24 UCF 45 166 62.2%
2018/10/06  96 SMU 20 at  14 UCF 48 187 86.5%
2018/10/13  14 UCF 38 at  56 Memphis 24 168 76.1%
2018/10/20  14 UCF 45 at  88 East Carolina 20 169 87.5%
2018/11/01  55 Temple 21 at  14 UCF 41 164 76.6%
2018/11/10  79 Navy 20 at  14 UCF 38 161 80.4%
2018/11/17  62 Cincinnati 20 at  14 UCF 42 168 79.5%
2018/11/23  14 UCF 36 at  42 South Florida 35 168 70.0%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 22.8%
Most difficult game left: November 23, at South Florida Bulls, 70.0%


Georgia Bulldogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.875 3 0.547 29 26.6 4 9.3 3 160.2 123
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/08   5 Georgia 41 at  19 South Carolina 17 162 80.1%
2018/09/15 115 Middle Tenn. 7 at   5 Georgia 49 147 95.1%
2018/09/22   2 Georgia 43 at  39 Missouri 29 176 78.4%
2018/09/29  99 Tennessee 12 at   3 Georgia 38 146 95.6%
2018/10/06  40 Vanderbilt 13 at   3 Georgia 41 155 84.2%
2018/10/13   3 Georgia 27 at  12 LSU 24 160 68.1%
2018/10/27  23 Florida 14 vs   3 Georgia 31 160 77.5%
2018/11/03   3 Georgia 28 at  37 Kentucky 21 162 83.6%
2018/11/10  11 Auburn 20 at   3 Georgia 31 161 62.7%
2018/11/17 113 Massachusetts 14 at   3 Georgia 56 165 97.2%
2018/11/24  39 Georgia Tech 17 at   3 Georgia 42 160 83.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 22.5%
Most difficult game left: November 10, vs Auburn Tigers, 62.7%


Clemson Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.827 8 0.541 37 23.2 10 8.8 1 170.0 44
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/08   3 Clemson 28 at  30 Texas A&M 26 161 77.2%
2018/09/15  97 Georgia Southern 7 at   8 Clemson 38 154 97.4%
2018/09/22   7 Clemson 49 at  64 Georgia Tech 21 157 87.5%
2018/09/29  43 Syracuse 23 at   7 Clemson 27 176 87.7%
2018/10/06   8 Clemson 63 at  52 Wake Forest 3 182 86.4%
2018/10/20  27 North Carolina St. 20 at   8 Clemson 35 169 69.5%
2018/10/27   8 Clemson 31 at  48 Florida St. 20 167 80.5%
2018/11/03  64 Louisville 17 at   8 Clemson 48 167 85.4%
2018/11/10   8 Clemson 34 at  41 Boston College 20 168 76.6%
2018/11/17  25 Duke 17 at   8 Clemson 31 169 67.2%
2018/11/24  19 South Carolina 17 at   8 Clemson 35 164 63.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 15.5%
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs South Carolina Gamecocks, 63.1%


Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.738 20 0.566 2 19.1 38 11.3 14 165.3 95
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01  12 Michigan 17 at  17 Notre Dame 24 161 60.6%
2018/09/08 126 Ball St. 16 at  15 Notre Dame 24 195 97.0%
2018/09/15  48 Vanderbilt 17 at  26 Notre Dame 22 170 74.1%
2018/09/22  26 Notre Dame 56 at  54 Wake Forest 27 197 62.6%
2018/09/29  13 Stanford 17 at  20 Notre Dame 38 169 71.1%
2018/10/06  20 Notre Dame 45 at  29 Virginia Tech 23 180 43.3%
2018/10/13  69 Pittsburgh 17 at  20 Notre Dame 38 164 77.9%
2018/10/27  20 Notre Dame 28 vs  79 Navy 21 161 76.0%
2018/11/03  20 Notre Dame 27 at  47 Northwestern 24 170 68.2%
2018/11/10  48 Florida St. 17 at  20 Notre Dame 34 165 68.1%
2018/11/17  44 Syracuse 20 vs  20 Notre Dame 34 166 65.6%
2018/11/24  20 Notre Dame 28 at  30 USC 27 166 56.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 10.1%
Most difficult game left: November 24, at USC Trojans, 56.1%


Long Shots

North Carolina State Wolfpack
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.696 27 0.529 55 19.9 33 12.9 26 168.3 63
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/08 124 Georgia State 7 at  37 North Carolina St. 41 158 94.9%
2018/09/22  28 North Carolina St. 37 at  71 Marshall 20 168 70.9%
2018/09/29  78 Virginia 21 at  26 North Carolina St. 35 159 76.8%
2018/10/06  41 Boston College 23 at  27 North Carolina St. 28 158 60.4%
2018/10/20  27 North Carolina St. 20 at   8 Clemson 35 169 30.5%
2018/10/27  27 North Carolina St. 28 at  44 Syracuse 29 167 38.4%
2018/11/03  48 Florida St. 21 at  27 North Carolina St. 31 167 64.3%
2018/11/08  52 Wake Forest 21 at  27 North Carolina St. 38 168 65.6%
2018/11/17  27 North Carolina St. 35 at  64 Louisville 27 167 72.0%
2018/11/24  27 North Carolina St. 38 at  91 North Carolina 21 168 82.7%
2018/12/01  88 East Carolina 14 at  27 North Carolina St. 45 170 82.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-41.4
Most difficult game left: October 20, at Clemson Tigers, 30.5%


South Florida Bulls
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.621 42 0.511 62 21.5 18 17.0 67 170.2 43
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/08  59 Georgia Tech 38 at  39 South Florida 49 175 60.0%
2018/09/15  44 South Florida 25 vs 111 Illinois 19 198 87.2%
2018/09/22  88 East Carolina 13 at  50 South Florida 20 175 86.2%
2018/10/06  42 South Florida 58 at 113 Massachusetts 42 187 87.5%
2018/10/12  42 South Florida 34 at  93 Tulsa 28 173 76.0%
2018/10/20 126 Connecticut 14 at  42 South Florida 45 168 94.6%
2018/10/27  42 South Florida 31 at  46 Houston 35 174 47.0%
2018/11/03  87 Tulane 21 at  42 South Florida 38 169 75.1%
2018/11/10  42 South Florida 34 at  62 Cincinnati 28 170 62.4%
2018/11/17  42 South Florida 31 at  55 Temple 34 166 41.6%
2018/11/23  14 UCF 36 at  42 South Florida 35 168 30.0%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-50.6
Most difficult game left: November 23, vs UCF Knights, 30.0%


Absolute Phonies

West Virginia Mountaineers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.743 18 0.537 43 22.1 12 13.5 36 172.0 25
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01  39 West Virginia 40 vs  88 Tennessee 14 148 74.0%
2018/09/22  46 Kansas St. 6 at  29 West Virginia 35 153 50.3%
2018/09/29  18 West Virginia 42 at  55 Texas Tech 34 196 36.4%
2018/10/06  76 Kansas 22 at  18 West Virginia 38 163 86.7%
2018/10/13  18 West Virginia 28 at  35 Iowa St. 31 171 37.8%
2018/10/25  60 Baylor 24 at  18 West Virginia 45 175 76.9%
2018/11/03  18 West Virginia 27 at  31 Texas 34 171 37.9%
2018/11/10  15 TCU 27 at  18 West Virginia 31 171 52.5%
2018/11/17  18 West Virginia 31 at  22 Oklahoma St. 38 174 46.7%
2018/11/23   9 Oklahoma 38 at  18 West Virginia 34 172 38.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-95.9
Most difficult game left: October 13, at Iowa State Cyclones, 37.8%


Colorado Buffaloes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.662 34 0.548 23 18.9 42 12.7 23 171.3 32
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/08/31  55 Colorado 45 vs  77 Colorado St. 13 170 43.6%
2018/09/08  33 Colorado 33 at  71 Nebraska 28 200 56.6%
2018/09/28  96 UCLA 16 at  39 Colorado 38 167 78.0%
2018/10/06  32 Arizona St. 21 at  34 Colorado 28 159 50.5%
2018/10/13  34 Colorado 24 at  30 USC 28 169 47.7%
2018/10/20  34 Colorado 17 at   4 Washington 34 169 20.1%
2018/10/27 111 Oregon St. 17 at  34 Colorado 49 170 88.0%
2018/11/02  34 Colorado 31 at  58 Arizona 27 172 67.3%
2018/11/10  24 Washington St. 31 at  34 Colorado 28 172 42.9%
2018/11/17  28 Utah 28 at  34 Colorado 27 169 47.8%
2018/11/24  34 Colorado 31 at  65 California 24 172 68.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-125.0
Most difficult game left: October 20, at Washington Huskies, 20.1%


Cincinnati Bearcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.514 62 0.491 72 15.4 83 15.0 48 170.4 41
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01 115 Cincinnati 26 at  61 UCLA 17 174 17.5%
2018/09/08  96 Cincinnati 21 at 104 Miami-OH 0 151 44.6%
2018/09/22  68 Ohio 30 at  82 Cincinnati 34 171 21.6%
2018/09/29  71 Cincinnati 49 at 125 Connecticut 7 171 81.8%
2018/10/06  87 Tulane 21 at  62 Cincinnati 37 175 69.9%
2018/10/20  62 Cincinnati 21 at  55 Temple 31 166 45.8%
2018/10/27  62 Cincinnati 34 at  96 SMU 28 169 68.1%
2018/11/03  79 Navy 24 at  62 Cincinnati 34 164 51.4%
2018/11/10  42 South Florida 34 at  62 Cincinnati 28 170 37.6%
2018/11/17  62 Cincinnati 20 at  14 UCF 42 168 20.5%
2018/11/23  88 East Carolina 20 at  62 Cincinnati 38 171 64.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-125.7
Most difficult game left: November 17, at UCF Knights, 20.5%


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