Monday, September 20, 2010

Week 3: Wrap-Up

Week 3 is officially in the books.  Before we start looking forward to Alabama-Arkansas and Boise-Oregon State, we can take a quick look back at how TFG and RBA performed.

Accuracy: 42-11 (79.2%)
The Good: Although the pick was incorrect, RBA calling Wisconsin-Arizona State a coin flip was entirely accurate.  Wisconsin won by (a) blocking an extra point in the 4th quarter and (b) tackling the Sun Devil kick returner at the WIS 1 before halftime to save a TD.  For comparison, 97.36% of participants in ESPN's college pick'em chose Wisconsin with an average confidence of 7.38 out of 10.  Honorable mention goes to picking the Auburn-Clemson score exactly.
The Bad: Ole Miss over Vanderbilt with 5:1 odds.  Don't get me wrong; I'm ecstatic that the Rebels lost.  However, a team that loses to a D-IAA opponent shouldn't be that high.  Chalk this one down to the low priority I've given to fixing the D-IAA hole in RBA.
The Ugly: All the picks from Thursday and Friday nights, but especially Cal over Nevada.  I felt that #7 was too high for the Golden Bears, but I never expected Nevada to take them behind the woodshed like that.

Accuracy: 41-12 (77.4%)
The Good: Pointing out that all the Thursday and Friday games were going to be much closer than conventional wisdom expected. In fact none of the favorites won, and the home teams swept the visitors. The storyline for Kansas appears to be "we can't figure out this team," but TFG is pretty sure that (for now) it's just early-season-on-the-road jitters. I wasn't quite as sure about the closeness of Iowa-Arizona as Eddie, but knew that it and the Clemson-Auburn game were going to be two of the best games on Saturday.
The Bad: I'm with Eddie; Ole Miss-Vandy should have been a cakewalk for the Rebels, but it appears there might be something to the Houston-Nutt-blows-games-he-should-win school of thought.
The Ugly: Some idiot said something about Florida State-BYU being a coin toss. That person is an idiot.

Overall Season Accuracy
Justin: 113-24 (82.5%)
Eddie: 112-25 (81.8%)
At the start of this year Eddie tested the revised RBA algorithm against TFG using data from the 2003-2009 seasons and had an accuracy rating that was about 0.6% behind TFG. This translates to one missed game for every 167 played. Well here we are 137 games into the year and RBA is 1 game behind TFG. It appears that for now past performance is indicative of future gains.