Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Week 2: Top 25 -- RBA

First order of business:  Yes, I know that Ole Miss is way too high.  We have not historically been grabbing FCS games because teams that lose to FCS opponents are generally pretty bad to begin with.  Until the import tool can grab FCS data reliably, we're stuck with Ole Miss in the top 25.  Don't panic -- they'll drop as soon as possible.

Since we're on the subject of anomalies:
  1. Virginia Tech is ranked above Boise State:  From a statistical perspective, Virginia Tech and Boise State played dead even in a game that wasn't settled until a minute left in the game.  The separation between the Hokies and the Broncos has more to do with Texas dropping and Arizona rising than the result of Monday's game.
  2. Major churn in the top 25:  RBA has a higher weight factor on the current season than TFG, so teams have major jumps based upon their performances in the first game.  Since Oregon, Arizona, and Nebraska smoked their week 1 opponents, they had a major jump.  Expect these to smoothen out over time as we observe more games.
  3. Southern Cal's precipitous drop:  The Trojans played poor defense against a vastly inferior Hawaii team, increasing their defensive efficiency by 4.4 PPH. That's going to hurt your ranking.
  4. The Oklahoma love-fest concluded:  Oklahoma has dropped from the top 5 all the way down to 23rd.  That's what happens when you lose 7.6 PPH of offensive efficiency against a bottom 50 team.

Rank+/-TeamWinPctSoSOff PtsDef PtsPace
003--Ohio St.0.93290.533721.66.980.0
006--Penn St.0.90020.539919.77.682.1
008--Virginia Tech0.88790.536420.68.479.2
011--Boise St.0.85920.458725.211.585.1
015--South Carolina0.81580.546518.09.479.0
016--Georgia Tech0.81560.535826.313.882.2
017--Oregon St.0.80960.543421.511.586.2
020--Miami (FL)0.80060.550619.110.581.2
022--Oklahoma St.0.79740.551522.612.585.0
024--Southern Cal0.78940.535223.313.183.6

Expect the top 25 to be fairly fluid until around week 5 when teams stop whipping overmatched non-conference opponents and start playing more familiar teams.