Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Week 11: Undefeated ... but for how long? — TFG


Odds as of games through 2014-11-02


Legitimate Title Contenders

Marshall Thundering Herd
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.749 23 0.239 125 22.3 16 14.8 42 177.1 29
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30  53 Marshall 42 at 124 Miami-OH 27 186 97.3%
2014/09/13 104 Ohio 14 at  73 Marshall 44 178 84.7%
2014/09/20  59 Marshall 48 at 116 Akron 17 189 87.6%
2014/10/04  39 Marshall 56 at  83 Old Dominion 14 167 70.0%
2014/10/11  84 Middle Tenn. 24 at  29 Marshall 49 191 88.2%
2014/10/18  31 Marshall 45 at 101 FIU 13 167 86.1%
2014/10/25 101 FL-Atlantic 16 at  22 Marshall 35 176 95.2%
2014/11/08  23 Marshall 37 at 114 Southern Miss. 23 174 92.4%
2014/11/15  68 Rice 26 at  23 Marshall 35 171 81.1%
2014/11/22  23 Marshall 39 at  97 UAB 27 174 87.7%
2014/11/28  93 Western Kentucky 28 at  23 Marshall 41 178 86.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 57.1%
Most difficult game left: November 15, vs Rice Owls, 81.1%



Second-Tier Hopefuls

Florida State Seminoles
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.897 5 0.615 30 29.2 2 12.9 23 169.2 73
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30   1 Florida St. 37 vs  10 Oklahoma St. 31 174 83.8%
2014/09/20  28 Clemson 17 at   1 Florida St. 23 170 93.6%
2014/09/27   2 Florida St. 56 at  48 North Carolina St. 41 191 89.7%
2014/10/04  97 Wake Forest 3 at   3 Florida St. 43 163 98.5%
2014/10/11   3 Florida St. 38 at  64 Syracuse 20 162 91.4%
2014/10/18  15 Notre Dame 27 at   3 Florida St. 31 172 77.2%
2014/10/30   4 Florida St. 42 at  11 Louisville 31 177 47.7%
2014/11/08  64 Virginia 22 at   5 Florida St. 38 169 92.2%
2014/11/15   5 Florida St. 34 at  22 Miami-FL 28 164 70.8%
2014/11/22  52 Boston College 25 at   5 Florida St. 37 163 86.4%
2014/11/29  24 Florida 27 at   5 Florida St. 35 168 75.5%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 42.6%
Most difficult game left: November 15, at Miami Hurricanes, 70.8%



Absolute Phonies

Mississippi State Bulldogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.873 8 0.625 23 22.4 15 10.9 8 177.7 26
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30 120 Southern Miss. 0 at  29 Mississippi St. 49 183 97.0%
2014/09/06 104 UAB 34 at  16 Mississippi St. 47 199 97.2%
2014/09/13  21 Mississippi St. 35 at  62 South Alabama 3 178 71.1%
2014/09/20  11 Mississippi St. 34 at   3 LSU 29 176 26.1%
2014/10/04  12 Texas A&M 31 at   9 Mississippi St. 48 199 63.7%
2014/10/11   2 Auburn 23 at  10 Mississippi St. 38 188 42.4%
2014/10/25   5 Mississippi St. 45 at  68 Kentucky 31 188 86.6%
2014/11/01  27 Arkansas 10 at   8 Mississippi St. 17 168 77.9%
2014/11/15   8 Mississippi St. 25 at   1 Alabama 31 166 22.3%
2014/11/22  91 Vanderbilt 20 at   8 Mississippi St. 34 166 93.4%
2014/11/29   8 Mississippi St. 26 at   2 Mississippi 27 173 36.2%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-13.3
Most difficult game left: November 15, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 22.3%



One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2014-11-02


Oregon Ducks
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.855 14 0.581 44 27.9 3 14.3 36 175.5 34
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/09/06   4 Michigan St. 27 at   6 Oregon 46 184 56.8%
2014/09/13 105 Wyoming 14 at   5 Oregon 48 161 98.6%
2014/09/20   7 Oregon 38 at  77 Washington St. 31 175 90.4%
2014/10/02  41 Arizona 31 at  13 Oregon 24 187 85.3%
2014/10/11  18 Oregon 42 at  23 UCLA 30 186 47.8%
2014/10/18  26 Washington 20 at  18 Oregon 45 181 71.5%
2014/10/24  14 Oregon 59 vs  80 California 41 205 90.2%
2014/11/01  19 Stanford 16 at  20 Oregon 45 172 51.8%
2014/11/08  14 Oregon 35 at  40 Utah 27 174 73.3%
2014/11/22  92 Colorado 27 at  14 Oregon 44 176 92.4%
2014/11/29  14 Oregon 40 at  72 Oregon St. 26 172 89.3%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 60.5%
Most difficult game left: November 8, at Utah Utes, 73.3%



TCU Horned Frogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.867 11 0.576 46 24.3 10 12.0 12 180.8 15
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/09/13  61 Minnesota 7 at  42 TCU 30 170 76.0%
2014/09/27  25 TCU 56 at 120 SMU 0 187 96.0%
2014/10/04   8 Oklahoma 33 at   7 TCU 37 191 60.0%
2014/10/11   6 TCU 58 at   5 Baylor 61 242 37.5%
2014/10/18  27 Oklahoma St. 9 at   8 TCU 42 176 81.8%
2014/10/25  77 Texas Tech 27 at   6 TCU 82 190 95.7%
2014/11/01   7 TCU 31 at  34 West Virginia 30 186 76.5%
2014/11/08  10 Kansas St. 30 at  11 TCU 31 168 53.9%
2014/11/15  11 TCU 36 at 120 Kansas 19 173 97.2%
2014/11/27  11 TCU 32 at  49 Texas 23 175 82.4%
2014/12/06  70 Iowa St. 27 at  11 TCU 39 182 89.1%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 38.5%
Most difficult game left: November 8, vs Kansas State Wildcats, 53.9%



Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.952 1 0.632 20 26.5 8 8.6 2 155.0 125
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30  83 West Virginia 23 vs   2 Alabama 33 178 97.0%
2014/09/06  99 FL-Atlantic 0 at   2 Alabama 41 133 99.0%
2014/09/13 123 Southern Miss. 12 at   1 Alabama 52 153 99.9%
2014/09/20  20 Florida 21 at   2 Alabama 42 170 88.6%
2014/10/04   1 Alabama 17 at   6 Mississippi 23 167 62.8%
2014/10/11   1 Alabama 14 at  28 Arkansas 13 158 81.4%
2014/10/18  16 Texas A&M 0 at   1 Alabama 59 160 83.0%
2014/10/25   1 Alabama 34 at  48 Tennessee 20 169 90.4%
2014/11/08   1 Alabama 27 at   4 LSU 24 156 65.0%
2014/11/15   8 Mississippi St. 25 at   1 Alabama 31 166 77.7%
2014/11/29   3 Auburn 30 at   1 Alabama 31 162 65.5%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 33.1%
Most difficult game left: November 8, at LSU Tigers, 65.0%



Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.872 9 0.478 70 27.2 4 13.2 25 169.4 71
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30  11 Ohio St. 34 at  46 Navy 17 143 76.4%
2014/09/06  53 Virginia Tech 35 at  11 Ohio St. 21 179 89.4%
2014/09/13  99 Kent St. 0 at  26 Ohio St. 66 175 94.9%
2014/09/27  55 Cincinnati 28 at  16 Ohio St. 50 181 88.7%
2014/10/04  17 Ohio St. 52 at  54 Maryland 24 168 74.8%
2014/10/18  61 Rutgers 17 at  14 Ohio St. 56 160 89.3%
2014/10/25   9 Ohio St. 31 at  43 Penn State 24 189 72.9%
2014/11/01  81 Illinois 14 at   9 Ohio St. 55 171 92.3%
2014/11/08   9 Ohio St. 30 at  13 Michigan St. 32 166 48.2%
2014/11/15   9 Ohio St. 34 at  59 Minnesota 24 163 84.2%
2014/11/22  80 Indiana 26 at   9 Ohio St. 42 172 91.9%
2014/11/29  51 Michigan 23 at   9 Ohio St. 33 161 83.1%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 31.0%
Most difficult game left: November 8, at Michigan State Spartans, 48.2%



Michigan State Spartans
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.859 13 0.494 64 23.5 13 11.9 11 163.9 98
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/09/06   4 Michigan St. 27 at   6 Oregon 46 184 43.2%
2014/09/20 125 Eastern Michigan 14 at  17 Michigan St. 73 161 99.8%
2014/09/27  95 Wyoming 14 at  22 Michigan St. 56 147 95.9%
2014/10/04  19 Nebraska 22 at  22 Michigan St. 27 191 58.9%
2014/10/11  21 Michigan St. 45 at  98 Purdue 31 167 91.2%
2014/10/18  19 Michigan St. 56 at  70 Indiana 17 163 74.0%
2014/10/25  56 Michigan 11 at  17 Michigan St. 35 151 86.3%
2014/11/08   9 Ohio St. 30 at  13 Michigan St. 32 166 51.8%
2014/11/15  13 Michigan St. 33 at  55 Maryland 25 170 81.4%
2014/11/22  73 Rutgers 21 at  13 Michigan St. 32 161 89.6%
2014/11/29  13 Michigan St. 29 at  44 Penn State 21 166 79.7%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 30.1%
Most difficult game left: November 8, vs Ohio State Buckeyes, 51.8%



Duke Blue Devils
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.663 37 0.456 77 18.4 41 14.2 35 180.6 16
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/09/06  51 Duke 34 at 112 Troy 17 186 77.1%
2014/09/13 102 Kansas 3 at  54 Duke 41 176 89.1%
2014/09/20  95 Tulane 13 at  35 Duke 47 193 92.8%
2014/09/27  31 Duke 10 at  47 Miami-FL 22 185 54.7%
2014/10/11  40 Duke 31 at  31 Georgia Tech 25 168 34.3%
2014/10/18  52 Virginia 13 at  33 Duke 20 172 76.6%
2014/11/01  26 Duke 51 at  66 Pittsburgh 48 175 71.6%
2014/11/08  37 Duke 27 at  57 Syracuse 24 174 59.9%
2014/11/15  47 Virginia Tech 24 at  37 Duke 27 175 61.3%
2014/11/20  56 North Carolina 31 at  37 Duke 35 181 64.1%
2014/11/29 117 Wake Forest 20 at  37 Duke 31 173 91.3%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 21.5%
Most difficult game left: November 8, at Syracuse Orange, 59.9%



Nebraska Cornhuskers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.825 18 0.502 60 22.2 17 12.4 16 174.0 39
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30  68 FL-Atlantic 7 at  44 Nebraska 55 180 67.2%
2014/09/13  27 Nebraska 55 at  84 Fresno St. 19 192 75.2%
2014/09/20  54 Miami-FL 31 at  21 Nebraska 41 156 84.5%
2014/09/27  77 Illinois 14 at  20 Nebraska 45 183 91.2%
2014/10/04  19 Nebraska 22 at  22 Michigan St. 27 191 41.1%
2014/10/18  17 Nebraska 38 at  48 Northwestern 17 179 64.6%
2014/10/25  65 Rutgers 24 at  14 Nebraska 42 153 90.2%
2014/11/01  84 Purdue 14 at  15 Nebraska 35 176 91.7%
2014/11/15  18 Nebraska 27 at   7 Wisconsin 29 165 35.6%
2014/11/22  59 Minnesota 23 at  18 Nebraska 31 165 81.5%
2014/11/28  18 Nebraska 29 at  29 Iowa 24 169 65.7%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 19.1%
Most difficult game left: November 15, at Wisconsin Badgers, 35.6%



Kansas State Wildcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.871 10 0.610 33 24.6 9 12.0 13 155.4 123
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/09/06  17 Kansas St. 32 at  62 Iowa St. 28 169 73.8%
2014/09/18   9 Auburn 20 at  25 Kansas St. 14 168 35.7%
2014/09/27  94 UTEP 28 at  27 Kansas St. 58 146 94.8%
2014/10/04  66 Texas Tech 13 at  31 Kansas St. 45 166 80.6%
2014/10/18  22 Kansas St. 31 at  12 Oklahoma 30 156 24.7%
2014/10/25  39 Texas 0 at  20 Kansas St. 23 148 77.1%
2014/11/01  45 Oklahoma St. 14 at  17 Kansas St. 48 157 81.6%
2014/11/08  10 Kansas St. 30 at  11 TCU 31 168 46.1%
2014/11/20  10 Kansas St. 34 at  31 West Virginia 28 169 74.8%
2014/11/29 120 Kansas 17 at  10 Kansas St. 35 161 97.6%
2014/12/06  10 Kansas St. 34 at  15 Baylor 32 173 53.7%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 18.1%
Most difficult game left: November 8, at TCU Horned Frogs, 46.1%



Auburn Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.912 3 0.772 2 29.2 2 12.1 15 170.1 61
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30  84 Arkansas 21 at   9 Auburn 45 158 90.4%
2014/09/06  81 SJSU 13 at  19 Auburn 59 176 93.6%
2014/09/18   9 Auburn 20 at  25 Kansas St. 14 168 64.3%
2014/09/27  65 LA Tech 17 at  10 Auburn 45 170 93.6%
2014/10/04   2 LSU 7 at   4 Auburn 41 161 49.0%
2014/10/11   2 Auburn 23 at  10 Mississippi St. 38 188 57.6%
2014/10/25  34 South Carolina 35 at   3 Auburn 42 168 90.3%
2014/11/01   3 Auburn 35 at   2 Mississippi 31 171 36.2%
2014/11/08  39 Texas A&M 27 at   3 Auburn 40 173 87.0%
2014/11/15   3 Auburn 34 at  12 Georgia 33 166 58.1%
2014/11/29   3 Auburn 30 at   1 Alabama 31 162 34.5%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 17.4%
Most difficult game left: November 29, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 34.5%



Arizona State Sun Devils
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.730 28 0.583 43 21.7 21 14.9 45 174.6 38
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/09/06  22 Arizona St. 58 at 114 New Mexico 23 168 92.6%
2014/09/13  22 Arizona St. 38 at 113 Colorado 24 181 92.2%
2014/09/25  30 UCLA 62 at  32 Arizona St. 27 191 58.5%
2014/10/04  45 Arizona St. 38 at  23 USC 34 196 22.0%
2014/10/18   9 Stanford 10 at  40 Arizona St. 26 166 30.5%
2014/10/25  26 Arizona St. 24 at  32 Washington 10 168 41.6%
2014/11/01  37 Utah 16 at  23 Arizona St. 19 183 64.5%
2014/11/08  19 Notre Dame 30 at  28 Arizona St. 29 172 42.8%
2014/11/15  28 Arizona St. 34 at  72 Oregon St. 27 172 76.1%
2014/11/22  77 Washington St. 29 at  28 Arizona St. 37 178 80.6%
2014/11/28  28 Arizona St. 32 at  38 Arizona 29 179 58.6%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 15.4%
Most difficult game left: November 8, vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 42.8%



Baylor Bears
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.853 15 0.453 78 26.7 7 13.8 32 191.7 1
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/31  82 SMU 0 at   7 Baylor 45 192 90.3%
2014/09/12   3 Baylor 63 at  79 Buffalo 21 180 91.8%
2014/09/27   5 Baylor 49 at  60 Iowa St. 28 206 84.9%
2014/10/04  10 Baylor 28 at  25 Texas 7 184 59.8%
2014/10/11   6 TCU 58 at   5 Baylor 61 242 62.5%
2014/10/18   7 Baylor 27 at  54 West Virginia 41 209 80.5%
2014/11/01 119 Kansas 14 at  10 Baylor 60 172 97.7%
2014/11/08  15 Baylor 35 at   6 Oklahoma 37 181 39.3%
2014/11/22  58 Oklahoma St. 29 at  15 Baylor 40 184 84.1%
2014/11/29  15 Baylor 46 vs  90 Texas Tech 29 189 92.0%
2014/12/06  10 Kansas St. 34 at  15 Baylor 32 173 46.3%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 14.1%
Most difficult game left: November 8, at Oklahoma Sooners, 39.3%



Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.813 19 0.611 32 21.5 22 12.4 17 169.7 63
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30  60 Rice 17 at  26 Notre Dame 48 156 74.0%
2014/09/06  33 Michigan 0 at  21 Notre Dame 31 154 76.5%
2014/09/13 111 Purdue 14 vs   7 Notre Dame 30 168 97.6%
2014/09/27  15 Notre Dame 31 vs  52 Syracuse 15 175 83.1%
2014/10/04   5 Stanford 14 at  16 Notre Dame 17 170 50.2%
2014/10/11  59 North Carolina 43 at  14 Notre Dame 50 201 89.4%
2014/10/18  15 Notre Dame 27 at   3 Florida St. 31 172 22.8%
2014/11/01  16 Notre Dame 49 at  67 Navy 39 163 83.9%
2014/11/08  19 Notre Dame 30 at  28 Arizona St. 29 172 57.2%
2014/11/15  69 Northwestern 21 at  19 Notre Dame 31 171 86.8%
2014/11/22  17 Louisville 27 at  19 Notre Dame 25 166 44.7%
2014/11/29  19 Notre Dame 29 at  25 USC 27 170 60.7%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 13.5%
Most difficult game left: November 22, vs Louisville Cardinals, 44.7%


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