Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Week 11: Undefeated ... but for how long? — RBA


Odds as of games through 2014-11-02


Legitimate Title Contenders

Florida State Seminoles
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.865 3 0.541 33 27.2 3 10.4 11 165.8 85
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30   1 Florida St. 37 vs  14 Oklahoma St. 31 174 85.7%
2014/09/20  25 Clemson 17 at   1 Florida St. 23 170 82.6%
2014/09/27   1 Florida St. 56 at  77 North Carolina St. 41 191 96.9%
2014/10/04  90 Wake Forest 3 at   5 Florida St. 43 163 97.7%
2014/10/11   2 Florida St. 38 at  57 Syracuse 20 162 88.1%
2014/10/18  21 Notre Dame 27 at   3 Florida St. 31 172 68.5%
2014/10/30   3 Florida St. 42 at  22 Louisville 31 177 31.2%
2014/11/08  55 Virginia 14 at   3 Florida St. 41 166 88.2%
2014/11/15   3 Florida St. 35 at  31 Miami-FL 24 164 80.2%
2014/11/22  59 Boston College 20 at   3 Florida St. 41 166 88.6%
2014/11/29  24 Florida 20 at   3 Florida St. 35 163 73.5%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 46.1%
Most difficult game left: November 29, vs Florida Gators, 73.5%



Second-Tier Hopefuls

Marshall Thundering Herd
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.680 28 0.471 87 22.0 17 15.1 55 169.7 36
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30  56 Marshall 42 at 125 Miami-OH 27 186 95.8%
2014/09/13 119 Ohio 14 at  49 Marshall 44 178 94.4%
2014/09/20  53 Marshall 48 at 110 Akron 17 189 79.1%
2014/10/04  45 Marshall 56 at  91 Old Dominion 14 167 69.2%
2014/10/11  85 Middle Tenn. 24 at  32 Marshall 49 191 69.6%
2014/10/18  30 Marshall 45 at 114 FIU 13 167 91.7%
2014/10/25  96 FL-Atlantic 16 at  29 Marshall 35 176 89.7%
2014/11/08  28 Marshall 42 at 119 Southern Miss. 20 169 93.3%
2014/11/15  78 Rice 20 at  28 Marshall 41 169 77.9%
2014/11/22  28 Marshall 38 at  87 UAB 28 167 80.3%
2014/11/28  53 Western Kentucky 24 at  28 Marshall 38 166 63.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 37.2%
Most difficult game left: November 28, vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, 63.7%



Absolute Phonies

Mississippi State Bulldogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.778 19 0.555 8 20.7 26 10.7 13 163.7 109
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30 120 Southern Miss. 0 at  17 Mississippi St. 49 183 97.7%
2014/09/06 100 UAB 34 at  28 Mississippi St. 47 199 96.2%
2014/09/13  32 Mississippi St. 35 at  79 South Alabama 3 178 84.6%
2014/09/20  27 Mississippi St. 34 at   3 LSU 29 176 25.4%
2014/10/04  11 Texas A&M 31 at  21 Mississippi St. 48 199 30.5%
2014/10/11   6 Auburn 23 at  21 Mississippi St. 38 188 36.6%
2014/10/25  16 Mississippi St. 45 at  66 Kentucky 31 188 76.7%
2014/11/01  18 Arkansas 10 at  19 Mississippi St. 17 168 50.6%
2014/11/15  19 Mississippi St. 20 at   1 Alabama 31 159 20.2%
2014/11/22  90 Vanderbilt 17 at  19 Mississippi St. 38 162 89.5%
2014/11/29  19 Mississippi St. 21 at   2 Mississippi 28 164 23.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-23.1
Most difficult game left: November 15, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 20.2%



One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2014-11-02


Oregon Ducks
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.784 17 0.530 50 25.1 9 13.8 40 177.6 2
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/09/06   4 Michigan St. 27 at   7 Oregon 46 184 56.5%
2014/09/13  95 Wyoming 14 at   9 Oregon 48 161 94.9%
2014/09/20   8 Oregon 38 at  77 Washington St. 31 175 87.7%
2014/10/02  40 Arizona 31 at  15 Oregon 24 187 76.1%
2014/10/11  20 Oregon 42 at  29 UCLA 30 186 36.2%
2014/10/18  26 Washington 20 at  17 Oregon 45 181 59.3%
2014/10/24  15 Oregon 59 vs  76 California 41 205 86.0%
2014/11/01   8 Stanford 16 at  17 Oregon 45 172 58.9%
2014/11/08  17 Oregon 31 at  34 Utah 27 172 68.0%
2014/11/22  88 Colorado 24 at  17 Oregon 48 173 87.7%
2014/11/29  17 Oregon 38 at  50 Oregon St. 24 174 73.8%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 44.0%
Most difficult game left: November 8, at Utah Utes, 68.0%



TCU Horned Frogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.855 4 0.481 79 24.1 12 10.1 7 169.2 44
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/09/13  56 Minnesota 7 at  41 TCU 30 170 57.2%
2014/09/27  23 TCU 56 at 111 SMU 0 187 86.5%
2014/10/04  13 Oklahoma 33 at  14 TCU 37 191 30.6%
2014/10/11   9 TCU 58 at   5 Baylor 61 242 44.6%
2014/10/18  25 Oklahoma St. 9 at  10 TCU 42 176 58.2%
2014/10/25  72 Texas Tech 27 at   6 TCU 82 190 88.7%
2014/11/01   4 TCU 31 at  45 West Virginia 30 186 87.3%
2014/11/08  15 Kansas St. 24 at   4 TCU 31 167 66.6%
2014/11/15   4 TCU 45 at 111 Kansas 13 170 97.0%
2014/11/27   4 TCU 31 at  27 Texas 24 169 77.2%
2014/12/06  42 Iowa St. 17 at   4 TCU 45 170 84.6%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 42.2%
Most difficult game left: November 8, vs Kansas State Wildcats, 66.6%



Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.911 1 0.552 12 25.3 6 7.7 2 156.0 128
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30  70 West Virginia 23 vs   2 Alabama 33 178 96.6%
2014/09/06 112 FL-Atlantic 0 at   2 Alabama 41 133 98.6%
2014/09/13 122 Southern Miss. 12 at   2 Alabama 52 153 99.0%
2014/09/20  21 Florida 21 at   2 Alabama 42 170 66.2%
2014/10/04   1 Alabama 17 at   3 Mississippi 23 167 54.9%
2014/10/11   1 Alabama 14 at  19 Arkansas 13 158 67.3%
2014/10/18  14 Texas A&M 0 at   1 Alabama 59 160 63.9%
2014/10/25   1 Alabama 34 at  31 Tennessee 20 169 82.6%
2014/11/08   1 Alabama 28 at   6 LSU 20 158 68.5%
2014/11/15  19 Mississippi St. 20 at   1 Alabama 31 159 79.8%
2014/11/29  10 Auburn 21 at   1 Alabama 31 158 74.4%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 40.7%
Most difficult game left: November 8, at LSU Tigers, 68.5%



Michigan State Spartans
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.815 11 0.540 37 24.7 10 11.1 17 166.5 78
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/09/06   4 Michigan St. 27 at   7 Oregon 46 184 43.5%
2014/09/20 127 Eastern Michigan 14 at  11 Michigan St. 73 161 99.2%
2014/09/27 104 Wyoming 14 at  15 Michigan St. 56 147 95.0%
2014/10/04  23 Nebraska 22 at   9 Michigan St. 27 191 65.4%
2014/10/11   8 Michigan St. 45 at 100 Purdue 31 167 95.8%
2014/10/18  15 Michigan St. 56 at  67 Indiana 17 163 86.7%
2014/10/25  54 Michigan 11 at  12 Michigan St. 35 151 81.5%
2014/11/08   7 Ohio St. 27 at  11 Michigan St. 28 163 57.2%
2014/11/15  11 Michigan St. 38 at  66 Maryland 24 166 85.0%
2014/11/22  58 Rutgers 14 at  11 Michigan St. 45 165 82.3%
2014/11/29  11 Michigan St. 31 at  43 Penn State 21 165 77.6%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 31.1%
Most difficult game left: November 8, vs Ohio State Buckeyes, 57.2%



Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.842 7 0.524 59 27.3 2 11.3 19 161.1 120
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30   9 Ohio St. 34 at  62 Navy 17 143 85.5%
2014/09/06  56 Virginia Tech 35 at  10 Ohio St. 21 179 79.2%
2014/09/13 103 Kent St. 0 at  23 Ohio St. 66 175 94.0%
2014/09/27  40 Cincinnati 28 at  14 Ohio St. 50 181 63.8%
2014/10/04   8 Ohio St. 52 at  52 Maryland 24 168 86.4%
2014/10/18  53 Rutgers 17 at   8 Ohio St. 56 160 83.5%
2014/10/25   7 Ohio St. 31 at  46 Penn State 24 189 81.7%
2014/11/01  82 Illinois 14 at   7 Ohio St. 55 171 93.8%
2014/11/08   7 Ohio St. 27 at  11 Michigan St. 28 163 42.8%
2014/11/15   7 Ohio St. 31 at  52 Minnesota 17 163 85.0%
2014/11/22  67 Indiana 20 at   7 Ohio St. 48 166 88.9%
2014/11/29  56 Michigan 17 at   7 Ohio St. 41 163 86.2%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 27.9%
Most difficult game left: November 8, at Michigan State Spartans, 42.8%



Nebraska Cornhuskers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.771 20 0.535 45 22.0 16 11.9 23 168.0 60
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30 107 FL-Atlantic 7 at  37 Nebraska 55 180 90.3%
2014/09/13  27 Nebraska 55 at  73 Fresno St. 19 192 67.7%
2014/09/20  46 Miami-FL 31 at  23 Nebraska 41 156 70.6%
2014/09/27  82 Illinois 14 at  25 Nebraska 45 183 84.0%
2014/10/04  23 Nebraska 22 at   9 Michigan St. 27 191 34.6%
2014/10/18  22 Nebraska 38 at  63 Northwestern 17 179 74.7%
2014/10/25  59 Rutgers 24 at  23 Nebraska 42 153 74.6%
2014/11/01  93 Purdue 14 at  20 Nebraska 35 176 90.9%
2014/11/15  20 Nebraska 21 at  13 Wisconsin 34 164 44.6%
2014/11/22  52 Minnesota 17 at  20 Nebraska 31 166 76.9%
2014/11/28  20 Nebraska 28 at  39 Iowa 24 166 71.9%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 24.7%
Most difficult game left: November 15, at Wisconsin Badgers, 44.6%



Baylor Bears
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.814 12 0.557 6 25.7 5 11.9 24 176.9 4
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/31  72 SMU 0 at   6 Baylor 45 192 90.5%
2014/09/12   3 Baylor 63 at  91 Buffalo 21 180 92.9%
2014/09/27  11 Baylor 49 at  41 Iowa St. 28 206 85.1%
2014/10/04   6 Baylor 28 at  30 Texas 7 184 68.1%
2014/10/11   9 TCU 58 at   5 Baylor 61 242 55.4%
2014/10/18   5 Baylor 27 at  61 West Virginia 41 209 89.1%
2014/11/01 111 Kansas 14 at  12 Baylor 60 172 96.8%
2014/11/08  12 Baylor 31 at  14 Oklahoma 34 174 47.4%
2014/11/22  35 Oklahoma St. 24 at  12 Baylor 41 176 75.3%
2014/11/29  12 Baylor 48 vs  75 Texas Tech 24 178 88.8%
2014/12/06  15 Kansas St. 28 at  12 Baylor 29 170 55.8%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 17.7%
Most difficult game left: November 8, at Oklahoma Sooners, 47.4%



Duke Blue Devils
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.618 40 0.531 49 17.9 43 14.5 48 168.4 57
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/09/06  52 Duke 34 at 110 Troy 17 186 77.4%
2014/09/13 107 Kansas 3 at  51 Duke 41 176 81.6%
2014/09/20  90 Tulane 13 at  45 Duke 47 193 82.3%
2014/09/27  43 Duke 10 at  45 Miami-FL 22 185 48.9%
2014/10/11  49 Duke 31 at  42 Georgia Tech 25 168 45.9%
2014/10/18  52 Virginia 13 at  41 Duke 20 172 54.0%
2014/11/01  40 Duke 51 at  71 Pittsburgh 48 175 38.1%
2014/11/08  40 Duke 24 at  47 Syracuse 27 166 45.5%
2014/11/15  60 Virginia Tech 24 at  40 Duke 28 164 61.4%
2014/11/20  62 North Carolina 27 at  40 Duke 35 167 62.6%
2014/11/29 110 Wake Forest 13 at  40 Duke 38 168 85.8%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 15.0%
Most difficult game left: November 8, at Syracuse Orange, 45.5%



Arizona State Sun Devils
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.696 26 0.540 38 21.6 20 14.1 42 174.9 7
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/09/06  22 Arizona St. 58 at 109 New Mexico 23 168 94.3%
2014/09/13  24 Arizona St. 38 at 109 Colorado 24 181 93.1%
2014/09/25  32 UCLA 62 at  30 Arizona St. 27 191 61.5%
2014/10/04  37 Arizona St. 38 at  25 USC 34 196 49.5%
2014/10/18   7 Stanford 10 at  34 Arizona St. 26 166 16.0%
2014/10/25  30 Arizona St. 24 at  28 Washington 10 168 38.3%
2014/11/01  34 Utah 16 at  26 Arizona St. 19 183 56.9%
2014/11/08  21 Notre Dame 24 at  26 Arizona St. 28 169 58.7%
2014/11/15  26 Arizona St. 34 at  50 Oregon St. 27 173 65.9%
2014/11/22  72 Washington St. 24 at  26 Arizona St. 41 174 77.1%
2014/11/28  26 Arizona St. 27 at  33 Arizona 28 173 44.2%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 13.2%
Most difficult game left: November 28, at Arizona Wildcats, 44.2%



Kansas State Wildcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.793 15 0.541 34 25.7 5 12.5 28 165.0 93
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/09/06  24 Kansas St. 32 at  54 Iowa St. 28 169 71.1%
2014/09/18   9 Auburn 20 at  24 Kansas St. 14 168 53.2%
2014/09/27 106 UTEP 28 at  24 Kansas St. 58 146 92.0%
2014/10/04  64 Texas Tech 13 at  28 Kansas St. 45 166 78.1%
2014/10/18  24 Kansas St. 31 at  11 Oklahoma 30 156 35.5%
2014/10/25  27 Texas 0 at  22 Kansas St. 23 148 55.3%
2014/11/01  35 Oklahoma St. 14 at  15 Kansas St. 48 157 58.3%
2014/11/08  15 Kansas St. 24 at   4 TCU 31 167 33.4%
2014/11/20  15 Kansas St. 31 at  45 West Virginia 28 167 75.0%
2014/11/29 111 Kansas 14 at  15 Kansas St. 49 168 94.2%
2014/12/06  15 Kansas St. 28 at  12 Baylor 29 170 44.2%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 10.4%
Most difficult game left: November 8, at TCU Horned Frogs, 33.4%



Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.769 21 0.563 3 21.1 21 12.8 29 164.5 102
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30  78 Rice 17 at  31 Notre Dame 48 156 71.4%
2014/09/06  33 Michigan 0 at  18 Notre Dame 31 154 51.8%
2014/09/13 114 Purdue 14 vs  13 Notre Dame 30 168 91.1%
2014/09/27  16 Notre Dame 31 vs  70 Syracuse 15 175 79.8%
2014/10/04   2 Stanford 14 at  16 Notre Dame 17 170 65.4%
2014/10/11  67 North Carolina 43 at  13 Notre Dame 50 201 80.9%
2014/10/18  21 Notre Dame 27 at   3 Florida St. 31 172 31.5%
2014/11/01  21 Notre Dame 49 at  70 Navy 39 163 82.3%
2014/11/08  21 Notre Dame 24 at  26 Arizona St. 28 169 41.3%
2014/11/15  68 Northwestern 17 at  21 Notre Dame 35 170 79.3%
2014/11/22  22 Louisville 21 at  21 Notre Dame 31 164 51.9%
2014/11/29  21 Notre Dame 24 at  25 USC 27 165 42.7%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-13.8
Most difficult game left: November 8, at Arizona State Sun Devils, 41.3%



Auburn Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.815 10 0.555 9 25.1 9 11.8 22 160.4 124
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30  38 Arkansas 21 at  20 Auburn 45 158 61.7%
2014/09/06  74 SJSU 13 at  13 Auburn 59 176 84.6%
2014/09/18   9 Auburn 20 at  24 Kansas St. 14 168 46.8%
2014/09/27  74 LA Tech 17 at   9 Auburn 45 170 92.8%
2014/10/04  10 LSU 7 at  12 Auburn 41 161 52.0%
2014/10/11   6 Auburn 23 at  21 Mississippi St. 38 188 63.4%
2014/10/25  39 South Carolina 35 at   9 Auburn 42 168 75.5%
2014/11/01  10 Auburn 35 at   2 Mississippi 31 171 32.8%
2014/11/08  16 Texas A&M 24 at  10 Auburn 38 167 50.4%
2014/11/15  10 Auburn 28 at   5 Georgia 31 160 38.1%
2014/11/29  10 Auburn 21 at   1 Alabama 31 158 25.6%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-20.3
Most difficult game left: November 29, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 25.6%


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