Monday, October 18, 2010

Week 7: Wrap-Up

Another week, another top-ranked team falters, and the pool of undefeateds shrinks. I'll update my previous rundown of undefeated teams later this week, but for now let's look back on the week that was.

Accuracy: 40-14 (74.1%)

The Good: Overall accuracy is slipping as the games in general become more competitive, but my sense of how accurate I should be remains steady. This past week the computers said I should expect to get 40.12 out of 54 right, and I got 40 out of 54. Last week I was expected to get 39.04 right, and I got 39 right. I am where I expect to be, and that's reassuring.
The Bad: I still feel there are some fundamental issues with how I'm taking strengths of the teams and converting them to predicted scores. Even though I'm doing well on predicting the winners, my sense of final scores is atrocious.
The Ugly: I'm still behind Eddie for the season. Although this week was another step forward as I've closed the gap to two games. A lot can happen over the course of the season, though.

Accuracy: 39-15 (72.2%)

The Good: One of co-workers likes to question the validity of our systems by asking, "How does it compare to always picking the higher ranked team?"  With that in mind, I find it particularly fitting that this week's highlight is picking Washington to upset his Oregon State Beavers with 50.3% confidence.  The game was settled in 2OT with the Beavers missing a gutsy two-point conversion.  Predicted margin of victory:  One point.  Going along with Justin's comment, RBA has predicted 73.30% of its games correctly since 2000 and expected to get 73.30% correct, suggesting that maybe it has a pretty good idea what's going on in the college football world.
The Bad: Let's give credit where it's due.  Oklahoma State exceeded expectations and unloaded on Texas Tech.  The Cowboys might actually be pretty respectable, despite what some people might think.
The Ugly: Picking Nevada over Hawaii in Honolulu cost me 12 points in the TFD pick'em, marking the second time in three weeks that RBA has pulled the rug out from under me with the big money pick of the week.  I'm still holding down the fort in third place despite sporting the best record in the league for the season (41-19).

Overall Season Totals
Eddie: 268-66 (77.9%)
Justin: 266-68 (77.3%)