Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Week 7: Top 25 -- TFG

This week we shed five previously-undefeated team, a team in a tailspin continues to plummet to earth, and a single game is responsible for one of the largest shake-ups we've seen this year.

Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Off Pts Def Pts Pace
001+1 TCU 0.9455 0.4332 27.2 8.1 81.2
002-1 Alabama 0.9200 0.6298 28.2 10.0 78.1
003-- Boise St. 0.9094 0.4103 29.5 11.1 82.2
004+1 Ohio St. 0.9034 0.4439 25.1 9.7 81.5
005-1 Iowa 0.8911 0.5491 22.0 9.0 81.6
006-- Florida 0.8817 0.6489 29.2 12.5 78.8
007+1 Virginia Tech 0.8655 0.5906 27.2 12.3 79.9
008+2 Nebraska 0.8597 0.4497 24.4 11.4 80.8
009+2 LSU 0.8554 0.6432 23.6 11.1 79.8
010-1 Oklahoma 0.8529 0.6544 22.5 10.8 91.5
011-4 Oregon 0.8495 0.5508 25.1 12.1 91.8
012+3 Utah 0.8104 0.3644 25.8 14.1 83.3
013-1 Texas 0.7935 0.5329 24.0 13.7 82.9
014-1 Arizona 0.7896 0.6559 21.5 12.4 83.3
015+1 Stanford 0.7846 0.6292 28.5 16.5 81.9
016NA South Carolina 0.7712 0.6987 22.6 13.4 79.7
017+2 Auburn 0.7549 0.5557 23.2 14.5 85.1
018-- Arkansas 0.7546 0.6327 23.1 14.4 83.1
019+2 California 0.7513 0.6103 21.5 13.4 84.1
020+3 Florida St. 0.7445 0.6155 24.3 15.6 82.1
021-4 Miami-FL 0.7411 0.6841 21.5 13.7 85.0
022-2 USC 0.7312 0.5389 21.8 14.3 83.4
023NA Cincinnati 0.7241 0.5476 20.9 14.0 85.9
024NA Missouri 0.7209 0.4693 20.2 13.4 86.7
025NA Oregon St. 0.7163 0.7184 24.2 16.4 84.7

New entries: South Carolina, Cincinnati, Missouri, Oregon State.

Dropped out: Penn State, Clemson, Oklahoma State, Air Force.

The biggest story here is clearly the South Carolina/Alabama game, which not only reshaped the national title discussion, but shook up the statistics as well. Alabama dropped 0.030 in EWP, while South Carolina jumped a staggering 0.089. The Gamecocks' offensive efficiency jumped a nearly unheard-of 3.6 PPH, which is what will happen when you hang 35 points on Alabama in a mere 141 plays, an offensive efficiency of 24.8 PPH against what had been the best defense in college football. On top of that, this game wasn't just slow, it was glacial. I had to go back and check the box score myself to make sure my computer program hadn't misread the data from the NCAA's website. South Carolina scored 35 points on a mere 57 plays from scrimmage. To say that this was a deliberate dismantling of the Crimson Tide would be an understatement. The question now is whether this was a fluke occurrence, or is this a situation similar to USC of last year where once Oregon State laid the blueprints on how to defeat them, the rest of the nation took notes and followed suit?

Cincinnati and Missouri sneak into the top 25 on the basis of beating up hapless opponents, whereas Oregon State -- cheered on by their #1 fans, Boise State -- goes to Arizona and sneaks past the Wildcats. the Beavers have now played both new top team TCU in addition to (3) Boise, and had a tougher time with Boise. My computer disagrees with this logic, but it's something that the human voters will (or should) notice.

Quick notes:

  • Oregon wins but in unimpressive fashion and drops 4 spots as a result of a poor defensive showing.
  • Florida State dismantles Miami on both sides of the ball and leapfrogs them.
  • USC hangs with Stanford and improves their EWP, but gets passed by FSU and "the other" USC.
  • Texas continues their slow drift southward in the polls.
  • Penn State continues their swan dive, dropping 19 points over two weeks.

It'll be interesting to see what happens in the SEC. Both Auburn and LSU remain undefeated, with LSU as the team with a better chance of remaining undefeated. Alabama is still the best team in the SEC, and Arkansas and Auburn present serious challenges. The likely scenario involves the SEC getting frozen out of the national championship game this year, and that could be the one thing the voters and the computers actually agree on.