Sunday, November 29, 2009

Week 13: Summary

Another relatively upset-free week in college football, another good showing for the TFG numbers, another so-so week for RBA, and another 16 games before we go bowling.  TFG went 39-10 this week (79.6%) compared with 34-15 (69.4%) for RBA.  Notable "what-the-heck-happened" games include red-hot UNC losing to North Carolina State, Houston Nutt blowing the big game against Mississippi State, and Navy forgetting to show up in the second half against Hawaii.  On to the summary.

Games of the Week

Utah Utes at Brigham Young Cougars
Justin said: The Utes are thin at the running back position, but the good news is for them it's always been about defense.  If they can stop BYU's offense -- similar in adjusted efficiency to (12) Oregon -- they'll pull out the victory.
Eddie said: RBA favors BYU over Utah by a single point, 28-27, in what should be one of the best games of the day.  The winner of the turnover battle wins the Holy War.
What happened: Well, this is about as close as it gets.  BYU wins by 3 in overtime.  Utah gained more yards (298-265) got more first downs (17-14) and ran more plays (75-68).  Unfortunately the Utes just couldn't punch it into the endzone, settling for five FGs, including a crucial one in OT.  Utah also saw a lot of yellow, racking up over 100 yards in penalties.  In the end it all added up to the Utes falling short.

Georgia Bulldogs at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Eddie said: Barring a turnover-ridden game, the Yellow Jackets will out-play the Bulldogs on both sides of the ball, win decisively 41-24, and send Georgia defensive coordinator Willie Martinez to the unemployment office.
Justin said: I remain skeptical about Georgia's ability to [stop Tech's offense], so look for Tech to walk away as 38-31 winners.
What happened: This was one of the slowest games all weekend, seeing only 146 plays.  Tech never got its offense going and trailed the entire game. Combined with Clemson's loss to South Carolina, things aren't looking good for the ACC as both title game contenders were taken down by middle-of-the-pack SEC teams.  The more things change ...

The "No, You're An Idiot" Game of the Week

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Duke Blue Devils
Justin said: Wake Forest has been playing well, but against tough competition.  Expect the Demon Deacons to put it all together this weekend and pull off the 27-24 victory.
Eddie said: RBA is picking Duke over Wake Forest, 31-24, in a game where the Blue Devils simply make fewer mistakes than the Demon Deacons.
What happened: Looks like the idiot tally is knotted at 1 after this defense-free showdown.  The two teams combined for 954 yards and 79 points, with Duke falling back to earth to finish the season at 5-7.  There were no major mistakes by either team, with the exception of Duke QB Thaddeus Lewis throwing a pick-six on a 4th-and-2 from their own 33.  Hey, at least Duke basketball is gearing up for their traditional November romp before underacheiving in the NCAAs.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Utah State Aggies at Idaho Vandals
Eddie: Unlike the Broncos, the Aggies' sport one of the worst defenses in the country.  In this one, the Vandals simply suck less and are playing at home.  RBA says Idaho over Utah State, 34-20 with 73.2% odds.
Justin: This game isn't likely to be described in retrospect as "pretty", but expect a lot of scoring and for the game to be decided in Utah State's favor on a late drive.  Final score: 35-31.
What happened: Sixty minutes, 195 plays, and 101 combined points.  Utah State went up 45-42 on a 75-yard reception with nine minutes to go.  Idaho would cough up the ball on the next drive and the Aggies would tack on a second TD 20 seconds after the first to go up 52-42.  Idaho would score again but couldn't get the onsides kick.  For those keeping track at home, Idaho put up an offensive efficiency of 25.1 PPH (e.g., Texas-Tech-esque) and lost.  Interesting footnote: Utah State won despite racking up 187 yards of penalties, and that is not a typo.