Sunday, November 15, 2009

Week 11: Summary

This past week was a slightly better one for my system as it went 44-12, going 3-4 in games where the favorite only had a 50-60% chance of winning.  This brings the four-week total to 166-53, or 75.8% accurate.  This week I'll be examining avenues to improve that further.  But first, the Week 11 recap ....

Games To Watch

(23) Miami-FL at (38) North Carolina.
I said: If North Carolina can keep Miami's offense in check they should be able to get their points.
Result: Miami outplayed UNC, racking up 438 yards to UNC's 326.  However, Miami also threw four INTs and UNC never trailed in this one, pulling off the 33-24 upset in Chapel Hill.

(29) Auburn at (37) Georgia.
I said: The law of "common opponents" says Auburn wins this one in a walk, but my numbers say this is anyone's game.
Result: With nine minutes left this one was knotted at 24, but Georgia got an INT in Auburn territory and drove 39 yards for the game-winning touchdown.  Auburn had a chance to tie it, getting to UGA's 22 yard line before sacks and penalties gave them a 4th-and-23 (they didn't make it).  Prediction: 31-24 UGA.  Result: 31-24 UGA.  You're welcome.

(26) Arizona at (49) California.
I said: Both play at a similar pace, so this is going to come down to one of two things: can Cal dig up some extra defense or can their offense find an extra gear to outscore Arizona?
Result: At the two-minute mark Cal was up 18-16 and Arizona was within field goal range.  What followed was one of those freak plays that no statistics can predict.  Arizona quarterback Nick Foles had his own pass deflected back to him; instead of batting it to the ground he caught the ball and tried to make another (illegal) pass.  Instead of 4th-and-3 at the Cal 25, Arizona faced a 4th-and-17 at the Cal 39.  The conversion failed and on the next play Cal RB Shane Vereen ran 61 yards to put Cal up 24-16.  Cal got the defense they needed and some lucky breaks on the offense to pull off the upset.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

(15) Texas Tech at (21) Oklahoma State.
I said: If [Oklahoma State] can slow down TTU's offense they'll have a shot.  Otherwise they risk getting completely blown out.
Result: The Cowboys held TTU to their lowest point total of the year, including TTU's game at Texas.  That's no small feat, and OSU was rewarded with a win.