Update: Yesterday I mistakenly said that the Orange Bowl would get first pick from the At-Large teams. Upon further review of the BCS eligibility and selection rules it seems that the bowl that loses the top seed to the national title game gets first pick, followed by the bowl that loses the number two seed to the title game. In this case -- assuming Florida finishes at #1 and Texas at #2 -- the Sugar Bowl will get first pick, followed by the Fiesta Bowl. The full selection order would then be
- Sugar (SEC champion replacement)
- Fiesta (Big XII champion replacement)
- Orange (at-large, will play ACC champion)
- Fiesta (at-large, will play Big XII replacement)
- Sugar (at-large, will play SEC replacement)
Fiesta Bowl
Normally this game pits the Big XII champion against an at-large bid. Since we project Texas to be busy with Florida on the 7th, the Fiesta Bowl gets the second replacement pick. It's likely that Alabama will be spoken for by this point (see the Sugar Bowl), meaning that the Fiesta gets the first pick of the rest of the best. Oddly, the current conventional wisdom points to an Iowa-Boise State matchup. On the basis of selecting the best available, the numbers point to TCU landing here instead of the Orange Bowl against the ACC champion. The Orange Bowl would get the third at-large pick. Currently the #5 BCS team is Cincinnati, but the Bearcats have a tough final game on the road against Pitt; TFG has them as 4-point favorites, but with only a 51% chance of winning. As I said in my previous BCS analysis, the odds are against Cincinnati winning out.
Assuming that doesn't happen, the next available best-of-the-rest is Boise State. Not only would this be a rematch of the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl, but would match two non-Big-Six teams against each other in a BCS for the first time ever. Would this really happen? On one hand, without a conventional big-name school to draw a nationwide fanbase, the money side might not make sense. On the flip side, putting TCU and Boise State in the same bowl would prevent a scenario that no BCS advocate would want to see: two mid-majors defeating two "Big Six" teams and finishing the season undefeated.
For the moment we'll assume that the Fiesta doesn't want to turn into the Mid-Major Bowl but still chooses TCU. Having ruled out Boise State, we slide further down the rankings to Pittsburgh. The Panthers have two tough games coming up against West Virginia and Cincinnati. Pitt are 4-point favorites against WVU but 4-point underdogs against the Bearcats, and likely to split these games to finish the year at 10-2, which brings us back to the Cincinnati situation. If Pitt loses to WVU but defeats Cincinnati they'll end up 10-2 with a win over the (presumably) 11-1 Bearcats. How does this fare for TCU?
| Horned Frogs | Opponent | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (3) | TCU | 33 | (17) | Cincinnati | 26 | 83.1 |
| (3) | TCU | 33 | (19) | Pittsburgh | 26 | 83.6 |
The answer: about the same. Cincinnati is shaky but has a decent shot of finishing the year undefeated. It also means that should they get dismantled by TCU everyone will suddenly remember all the shortcomings the Bearcats displayed throughout the year as proof that TCU didn't play a "worthy" BCS opponent.
Sugar Bowl
The loser of the SEC title game will almost certainly land here, which our projections indicate will be Alabama. At this point TCU and Cincinnati have been taken (Fiesta). Will the Orange Bowl take Boise State as an opponent for Georgia Tech? I say no; Pitt is likely to lose one more before the year is out and Iowa is in free-fall. That brings us to Oklahoma State. If the Cowboys beat the Sooners, they get the spot in the Orange Bowl and Penn State plays Alabama. If Oklahoma salvages something and wins, the Orange Bowl takes the Lions and the Cowboys play the Tide. TFG and the odds currently are on the Sooners, so we'll assume this is correct and Georgia Tech plays Penn State and Alabama faces off against Oklahoma State.
Rose Bowl
Ohio State has clinched their Rose Bowl berth and awaits the Pac-10 champion, which will be decided in Eugene on the 3rd. The current TFG projection for this game is Oregon 31, Oregon State 27, with the Ducks as 2-to-1 favorites. With a BCS bowl berth on the line, though, both teams will be motivated. So which one of these teams would Ohio State rather face?
| Buckeyes | Opponent | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (5) | Ohio State | 29 | (12) | Oregon | 27 | 70.1 |
| (5) | Ohio State | 30 | (27) | Oregon State | 24 | 82.3 |
Regardless of their opponent, Ohio State is the favorite. On the whole, Oregon State is the weaker team and presents a better matchup for the Buckeyes. The Buckeys have an anemic offense, averaging just 21.1 PPH, on par with both Oregon (22.6) and Oregon State (20.5). The big difference, though, is on defense. The Buckeyes are tied with Alabama for having the most efficient defense in the country at just 8.3 PPH. Compared to Oregon (12.2) or Oregon State (14.2), Ohio State is geared to slow their opponents down to a crawl.
Summary
Below is a table summarizing the projected participants in each bowl, the final scores, and the odds that the favorite will win.
| Bowl |
Favorite |
Underdog |
Odds |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BCS Title |
(1) |
Florida |
32 |
(2) | Texas | 31 |
56.7 |
| Orange |
(6) |
Penn State |
32 |
(22) | Georgia Tech | 30 |
73.5 |
| Fiesta |
(3) |
TCU |
33 |
(17) | Cincinnati | 26 |
83.1 |
| Sugar |
(4) |
Alabama |
33 |
(23) | Oklahoma State | 26 |
85.4 |
| Rose |
(5) |
Ohio State |
29 |
(12) | Oregon | 27 |
70.1 |
Comments, criticism and discussion are welcome below.
