Monday, November 9, 2009

Week 10: Summary

Overall it was a brutal week for predictions.  Of the 11 games where the favorite had between a 50% and 60% chance to win, I got two correct (Hawaii and LA-Monroe).  Throw in Notre Dame-Navy (with the 60.2% chance of getting it right) and I went 2-for-12 in predicting close games.  Those are a lot of bad bounces.  Overall my record for this week was 36-17, bringing the total for the last three weeks to 122-41 for an accuracy of 74.8%.  In my next post I'll examine some changes I'm making to my system in response to observations and feedback.  But first, the Week 10 recap ....

Games To Watch

(25) Oregon State at (39) California.
I said: Vegas -- and my numbers -- say Cal is the favorite, but look for Oregon State to pull off the upset.
Result: Correct. OSU took control of this game early on and didn't let go.

(33) Navy at (35) Notre Dame.
 I said:  I predict that Notre Dame will pull off the victory, but only at the end and only if they can keep Navy from getting some quick points.
Result: Somewhat near the target but ultimately wrong. Navy scored on their first two drives to go up 14-0 at the start of the second quarter.  Notre Dame missed two FGs -- including one from the Navy 12 -- gave up a safety, and just couldn't pull it together.  In every category except the one that mattered, Notre Dame one-upped Navy: yards, first downs, punts, etc.  With two minutes left, Notre Dame still had a shot to win, they just couldn't get it done.

(47) Houston at (56) Tulsa.
I said: The main question is whether or not Tulsa will be able to keep up with Houston's frantic pace, averaging an NCAA-high 185 plays per game.  The numbers give Tulsa a 51% nod in what will be a fast-and-furious high-scoring game.
Result: I'm pretty disappointed I didn't get this one right.  I looked at the boxscore and saw Tulsa up 8 with 2:30 minutes to go and Houston at midfield.  Here I thought the worse that would happen would be overtime.  And up 2 with 0:25 left?  Surely this one was in the bag.  But no.  These are the kinds of games that drive me crazy because you're left wondering if there was anything you could have done differently to predict a Houston win.  Sometimes ... it just doesn't work out.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

(90) Utah State at (101) Hawaii.  Not nearly as close as the numbers predicted.  This appears to be a growing trend.