Week 6 RBA Projections: ACC,Big East,C-USA,Independents

Projected conference champions

• ACC Atlantic: Clemson
• ACC Coastal: Georgia Tech
• Big East: Rutgers
• C-USA East: Southern Miss.
• C-USA West: SMU
• Independents: Notre Dame

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 6 TFG Projections: ACC,Big East,C-USA,Independents

Projected conference champions

• ACC Atlantic: Clemson
• ACC Coastal: Virginia Tech
• Big East: West Virginia
• C-USA East: UCF
• C-USA West: Houston
• Independents: Notre Dame

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

New for 2011: Conference Projections

We mentioned this a while back when we announced the redesign, but new for this year starting in October are projections for the final standings of each conference, updated weekly. Want to know how the SEC championship race looks? Check in every Wednesday. Want to know if anyone from the Big East will be able to separate themselves from the pack? (Answer: probably not.) Check in on Mondays. We'll have projections according to both TFG and RBA systems, so you'll get some variety in your projections.

Schedule

• Monday: ACC, Big East, Conference USA, Independents
• Tuesday: Big Ten, Big XII, Mid-Atlantic, Mountain West
• Wednesday: SEC, Pac-12, Sunbelt, Western Athletic

Here's a sample of the projected Big East standings as of 2011/09/25:

Big East
Team		Conference		Overall		Adjusted
		Now	Projected	Now	Projected	Off.	Def.	Pace
34	South Florida	0 -  0   0.000	4 -  3   0.571	3 -  0   1.000	8 -  3   0.727	19.8	14.8	169.2
32	West Virginia	0 -  0   0.000	4 -  3   0.571	2 -  1   0.667	7 -  4   0.636	21.8	16.0	164.2
33	Pittsburgh	0 -  0   0.000	4 -  3   0.571	1 -  2   0.333	6 -  5   0.545	21.3	15.8	164.7
47	Cincinnati	0 -  0   0.000	3 -  4   0.429	2 -  1   0.667	6 -  5   0.545	23.2	20.7	168.6
51	Louisville	0 -  0   0.000	3 -  4   0.429	1 -  1   0.500	6 -  5   0.545	19.4	17.8	159.4
53	Connecticut	0 -  0   0.000	3 -  4   0.429	1 -  2   0.333	5 -  6   0.455	18.6	17.4	165.9
59	Rutgers	0 -  0   0.000	3 -  4   0.429	1 -  1   0.500	5 -  6   0.455	20.1	20.1	163.0
81	Syracuse	0 -  0   0.000	2 -  5   0.286	2 -  1   0.667	5 -  6   0.455	16.8	21.0	163.9
Projected records may not sum to total number of actual games due to rounding errors.

As the note at the bottom says, due to some rounding errors in the mathematical formula we use to do the projections, they might add up funny. That should resolve itself as the season goes on, though.

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Week 6: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Texas Tech (0.139); Western Michigan (0.102); Wake Forest (0.095); Temple (0.095); Pittsburgh (0.094)

Biggest drops: North Carolina St. (-0.173); Tulane (-0.098); Nebraska (-0.093); South Florida (-0.089); Ohio (-0.074)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 6: Top 25 -- RBA

[ Note: Eddie is on the road yet again -- we travel a lot for work -- so this is in fire-and-forget mode. ]

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	+1	Alabama	1.000	0.551	15	24.5	5	5.8	1	157.6	121
2	+2	Wisconsin	0.992	0.537	36	27.8	2	10.3	10	162.1	107
3	-2	Stanford	0.983	0.544	23	27.0	3	9.4	6	167.3	49
4	+3	LSU	0.975	0.549	16	22.1	13	7.1	2	161.0	111
5	-2	Oregon	0.975	0.533	42	28.4	1	10.7	14	176.0	3
6	-1	Boise St.	0.966	0.458	98	24.8	4	9.1	5	169.1	30
7	-1	TCU	0.958	0.462	93	23.6	8	13.7	36	168.3	39
8	--	Oklahoma	0.942	0.543	25	24.4	7	8.5	4	170.8	19
9	+1	Oklahoma St.	0.933	0.552	13	24.5	6	13.9	40	172.5	10
10	-1	Florida	0.924	0.552	12	22.6	11	8.3	3	161.7	109
11	+5	Clemson	0.923	0.527	56	18.1	42	10.7	13	166.4	64
12	--	Florida St.	0.923	0.556	8	19.3	30	9.9	8	166.2	68
13	+4	Auburn	0.900	0.544	24	20.7	19	14.9	52	159.4	116
14	+1	Texas A&M	0.896	0.555	9	20.1	23	11.3	21	171.3	16
15	+5	Arizona St.	0.896	0.527	55	19.2	31	11.3	22	173.9	6
16	+3	Arkansas	0.895	0.570	1	23.0	10	12.9	29	165.6	79
17	-3	Ohio St.	0.893	0.531	43	18.3	40	9.6	7	159.4	115
18	+3	South Carolina	0.876	0.545	21	20.0	24	12.4	27	157.9	120
19	-8	Virginia Tech	0.875	0.528	52	16.8	56	10.1	9	158.3	119
20	-2	Iowa	0.858	0.524	58	19.6	28	13.2	34	164.2	92
21	+1	Georgia	0.858	0.554	11	20.2	22	11.2	17	159.6	114
22	NA	Temple	0.857	0.498	70	15.2	72	12.0	24	162.1	106
23	NA	Pittsburgh	0.830	0.528	51	17.2	52	11.2	18	164.6	88
24	+1	Texas	0.826	0.520	60	19.0	34	11.2	20	168.1	43
25	-2	Notre Dame	0.817	0.565	3	17.5	49	10.9	16	165.0	85

Rankings through games of 2011-10-02

New entries: Temple, Pittsburgh.

Dropped out: Nebraska, Illinois.

Just a quick note that we now have a consensus #1 team for the first time this season: the Alabama Crimson Tide. Their whipping of Florida at the Gators' home field propels them into sole ownership of the top spot in both RBA and TFG. There are some discrepancies from there on down, but Alabama's dominance puts them head-and-shoulders above the rest of FBS for the time being.

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Week 6: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Toledo (0.101); Michigan (0.074); West Virginia (0.069); Cincinnati (0.067); Washington (0.058)

Biggest drops: Minnesota (-0.117); Temple (-0.112); Miami-OH (-0.066); Utah (-0.061); Louisville (-0.058)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 6: Top 25 -- TFG

It was a rough week for my predictions -- I didn't even break 70% for the first time in a while -- but let's see how this affected the top 25.

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	0.959	0.625	16	34.1	1	9.7	1	155.1	118
2	--	Boise St.	0.912	0.496	61	29.3	5	11.5	3	164.0	76
3	+2	LSU	0.909	0.671	4	29.8	4	11.9	5	160.8	100
4	+2	Oklahoma	0.902	0.601	21	26.1	16	10.7	2	180.6	5
5	-1	Stanford	0.901	0.495	62	30.9	3	12.8	8	159.8	103
6	+1	Wisconsin	0.882	0.506	57	31.4	2	14.0	15	158.8	107
7	-4	Florida	0.879	0.605	20	27.7	10	12.5	7	161.4	97
8	+2	Oregon	0.859	0.642	10	27.8	9	13.5	12	185.5	1
9	-1	Ohio St.	0.851	0.507	56	23.2	25	11.6	4	158.7	109
10	-1	TCU	0.818	0.427	89	28.0	7	15.4	22	164.9	72
11	--	Virginia Tech	0.803	0.524	48	22.6	32	12.9	9	157.2	115
12	NA	Michigan	0.790	0.476	70	27.7	11	16.3	30	160.9	99
13	+10	Clemson	0.788	0.638	12	22.4	35	13.3	11	166.2	62
14	+5	Notre Dame	0.787	0.646	7	22.1	41	13.1	10	170.1	32
15	-3	Texas A&M	0.785	0.630	15	22.9	27	13.7	13	177.9	8
16	-2	Florida St.	0.784	0.643	9	26.5	15	15.8	27	158.1	112
17	-4	Arkansas	0.781	0.641	11	28.7	6	17.2	35	169.3	37
18	-3	Oklahoma St.	0.779	0.553	38	25.5	18	15.4	23	182.0	2
19	+2	Georgia	0.761	0.663	5	27.1	13	17.0	33	160.2	101
20	+5	Michigan St.	0.759	0.563	32	23.1	26	14.6	17	160.2	102
21	+1	Texas	0.754	0.486	66	22.7	30	14.5	16	163.5	81
22	NA	West Virginia	0.754	0.536	41	24.3	21	15.5	24	163.1	87
23	-6	Nebraska	0.753	0.563	33	23.9	23	15.3	21	166.1	65
24	-4	Missouri	0.751	0.606	19	21.7	44	13.9	14	171.8	21
25	NA	Iowa	0.738	0.521	49	24.5	20	16.2	29	167.8	50

Rankings through games of 2011-10-02

New entries: Michigan, West Virginia, Iowa.

Dropped out: Utah, South Carolina, Penn State.

The Crimson Tide solidify their hold on the top spot, with an absolutely staggering offensive efficiency of 34.1 PPH. Digging through old rankings the closest comparisons I could find were Florida with Tebow (love or hate the guy, the Gators were scary efficient with him at QB), Texas with Vince Young, and USC during their 2003-2005 blitz. Alabama isn't quite as good as these teams yet -- the Tebow Gators tipped the ratings at just north of 37.0 PPH -- but we're looking at rarefied air here. Boise managed to stay ahead of the LSU/Oklahoma/Stanford/Wisconsin pack, but just barely.

Meanwhile Florida, Ohio State, TCU, and Virginia Tech are moving in the wrong direction. The Hokies managed to stay at #11, but their WinPct dropped from 0.841 to 0.803; another week of movement like that and they'll be lucky to stay in the top 20. Clemson seems ready to shed last year's up-and-down routine; another performance like the one in Blacksburg and the Tigers will be a legitimate top-10 team (insert obligatory ACC disclaimer).

Michigan seems to be doing their best to game the system, laying an unreal beatdown on a helpless Minnesota team. I'm not necessarily convinced that the Wolverines are as good as Arkansas, Texas A&M, or Clemson, but if the Golden Gophers continue to sink then that will make this win look less and less impressive in the eyes of the computer. Oh, and some team in Indiana seems to be making a resurgence. I wonder if the national press will finally start giving them some love.

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Week 5: Saturday Recap

RBA continues to chug along on pace, while my TFG system is really struggling. Let's recap.

Week 5
System	Expected		Actual
	W - L	Win %	W - L	Win %
RBA	37.1 -  14.9	71.4	37 -  15	71.2
TFG	38.8 -  13.2	74.5	35 -  17	67.3

Game of the Week

Arkansas Razorbacks 42, Texas A&M Aggies 38

Justin

(12) Texas A&M 35, (13) Arkansas 33 (51.1%)

This is one of those games where you're upset to get it wrong, but you can't really blame your computer too much. TFG said it was effectively going to be a coin toss, and in the end it came down to a penalty, a big play, and a stalled A&M drive. This is kind of a pyrrhic victory for Arkansas, though, since giving up this many points to a weak A&M offense is going to ding them in the polls; the Razorbacks surrendered 38 points in 208 plays on a neutral field, slightly above their adjusted season average of 16.7 PPH. Their only hope is that their offensive production of 20.2 PPH against an excellent Aggie defense will be enough to help them tread water.

Eddie

(19) Arkansas 31, (15) Texas A&M 27 (51.6%)

Can I get a "Woo pig sooie?"  As predicted, this game was the best of the weekend, featuring over 1200 yards of offense.  Injuries on the defensive line (three out of four starters) certainly contributed to the Aggies' 381 yards rushing, but there's no explanation for a pair of "NFL grade cornerbacks" (as described Chris Spielman and Dave Pasch) to surrender 509 yards through the air with a whopping 281 receiving yards by Jarius Wright.  He was open over the middle 20 yards downfield throughout the entire game.  Ex-NFL coach Mike Sherman opted to punt twice on 4th and short instead of playing for the win, leading to two Arkansas touchdowns.  There's debate as to whether Arkansas won this game or Texas A&M lost it.  From RBA's perspective, it doesn't matter. Both teams will likely drop in the RBA top 25 next week, as their defensive ratings will likely collapse.

Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game

Alabama Crimson Tide 38, Florida Gators 10

Eddie

(2) Alabama 28, (9) Florida 21 (70.5%)

My preview stated "the only things keeping this game under control are the Crimson Tide's slow and methodical pace and Florida's home field advantage." This turned out to be fairly accurate, even if the difference in score was much larger. Florida opened the game with a huge touchdown pass and gained more yards through the air in the first quarter than Alabama's per-game average. Then, John Brantley threw a pass right into Courtney Upshaw's belly for an Alabama touchdown. From that moment onward, Florida just couldn't get things going. Brantley got hurt. His backup was ineffective. Richardson and Lacy ground down the Florida defense. Alabama ran away late to win 38-10. The only question left about Alabama is if they pass Stanford in the RBA top 25.

Justin

(1) Alabama 32, (3) Florida 30 (58.5%)

I don't know if you noticed this, but Alabama is good. Scary good. The Gators had the second-best defense in FBS coming into this game, and the Crimson Tide hung 38 points on them in a mere 146 plays (that's 26.0 PPH for those playing at home). Only 14 teams in FBS could do that against an average opponent on a neutral field, but to do that against the second-best defense on their home field is absolutely unreal. After this game I'd stop worrying about LSU and start focusing on Alabama as potential SEC champions and even national champions.

Shootout of the Week

Boise State Broncos 30, Nevada Wolf Pack 10

Justin

(2) Boise St. 43, (45) Nevada 28 (91.2%)

For whatever reason the Wolfpack seems to know how to really get at Boise, even during a down year. Between a bad game for Kellen Moore and the Broncos taking their foot off the accelerator in the fourth, this ended up being less of a shootout than we expected. At only 159 plays this game was slower than expected, but even given that the Broncos only managed about 18.9 PPH. If the Bronco D hadn't really stepped up, this might have hurt Boise's rankings a bit. As it is, I fully expect them to stay a shade above the BCS titans nipping at their heels, but well behind the Crimson Tide.

Eddie

(5) Boise St. 49, (61) Nevada 20 (91.0%)

This game was all Boise State, but it wasn't quite the shooting gallery we expected. Kellen Moore threw back-to-back interceptions in the second quarter to kill a couple of drives. Meanwhile, the Broncos focused on the running game. Naturally, running plays chew more clock, limiting Boise's scoring opportunities. Petersen pulled Moore in the fourth after the worst statistical game of his career. Meanwhile, their defense pitched a shutout until the starters were pulled. All in all, this added up to a 30-10 Bronco victory, which probably isn't enough to keep them in the RBA top 5.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Washington State Cougars 31, Colorado Buffaloes 27

Eddie

(55) Washington St. 35, (73) Colorado 28 (67.3%)

Well, will you look at that? Washington State threw for 376 yards and scored two touchdowns in the final 2:35 to survive a close game against the Buffaloes. Admittedly, this game was closer than RBA predicted, but it looks like the Cougars may actually be respectable in 2011 after wandering in the wastes for the last half-decade. This makes TFG and RBA even on 2011 toss-ups.

Justin

(71) Colorado 34, (86) Washington St. 29 (68.2%)

Dammit, Colorado. Pass defense. Hold the football. I guess that's why we call these "coin toss" games, though. It'd just have been nice to get this one right, especially since my computer seems to be collapsing under the weight of so many sudden changes to top teams (TCU, Virginia Tech, Auburn, South Carolina, etc.). This was pretty much the definition of a middle-of-the-road game, as both teams averaged about 16-19 PPH. As Eddie said, we're all tied up going into this week. Hopefully I can get one back.

Coin Toss Record: RBA 2, TFG 2.

2011 - 2012 Season
System	Expected		Actual
	W - L	Win %	W - L	Win %
RBA	172.0 -  60.0	74.2	173 -  59	74.6
TFG	175.8 -  56.2	75.8	168 -  64	72.4

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Week 5: Saturday Predictions

Several interesting non-conference (Arkansas/Texas A&M) and new-conference (Wisconsin/Nebraska) matchups this week. Fifty games in all.  Expected records for today:

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
TFG	37.20 - 12.80	74.41%
RBA	35.69 - 14.31	71.38%

Home			Visitors			Home			Visitors
30	Arizona St.	34	61	Oregon St.	26	20	Arizona St.	35	82	Oregon St.	17
13	Arkansas	33	12	Texas A&M	35	19	Arkansas	31	15	Texas A&M	27
2	Boise St.	43	45	Nevada	28	5	Boise St.	49	61	Nevada	20
88	Boston College	30	83	Wake Forest	27	83	Boston College	28	94	Wake Forest	21
66	Fresno St.	37	78	Mississippi	33	68	Fresno St.	34	86	Mississippi	24
101	Central Michigan	30	55	Northern Ill.	36	107	Central Michigan	24	65	Northern Ill.	41
107	Colorado St.	32	109	SJSU	29	109	Colorado St.	27	101	SJSU	24
71	Colorado	34	86	Washington St.	29	73	Colorado	28	55	Washington St.	35
53	Connecticut	33	68	Western Michigan	28	63	Connecticut	28	76	Western Michigan	20
80	East Carolina	31	41	North Carolina	35	81	East Carolina	28	46	North Carolina	31
118	Eastern Michigan	34	119	Akron	33	116	Eastern Michigan	34	118	Akron	27
76	FIU	35	84	Duke	31	49	FIU	35	80	Duke	21
3	Florida	30	1	Alabama	32	9	Florida	21	2	Alabama	28
21	Georgia	37	44	Mississippi St.	28	22	Georgia	28	28	Mississippi St.	24
35	Illinois	35	75	Northwestern	26	24	Illinois	35	67	Northwestern	24
97	Indiana	26	24	Penn State	36	97	Indiana	20	37	Penn State	35
60	Iowa St.	28	22	Texas	33	69	Iowa St.	24	25	Texas	31
36	Kansas St.	40	46	Baylor	34	42	Kansas St.	35	48	Baylor	31
91	Kansas	32	40	Texas Tech	39	87	Kansas	27	44	Texas Tech	42
5	LSU	40	62	Kentucky	23	7	LSU	38	52	Kentucky	14
72	LA Tech	35	64	Hawaii	33	75	LA Tech	31	62	Hawaii	32
51	Louisville	34	99	Marshall	24	54	Louisville	38	103	Marshall	14
95	Miami-OH	30	47	Cincinnati	36	95	Miami-OH	24	50	Cincinnati	34
29	Michigan	40	79	Minnesota	28	39	Michigan	38	90	Minnesota	17
93	Middle Tenn.	42	120	Memphis	26	96	Middle Tenn.	35	120	Memphis	7
117	New Mexico	33	115	New Mexico St.	31	115	New Mexico	24	112	New Mexico St.	20
58	North Carolina St.	33	38	Georgia Tech	36	64	North Carolina St.	28	38	Georgia Tech	31
8	Ohio St.	33	25	Michigan St.	27	14	Ohio St.	34	45	Michigan St.	17
74	Ohio	36	111	Kent St.	27	72	Ohio	35	108	Kent St.	17
6	Oklahoma	47	102	Ball St.	22	8	Oklahoma	52	98	Ball St.	7
82	Purdue	25	19	Notre Dame	32	89	Purdue	21	23	Notre Dame	31
18	South Carolina	39	28	Auburn	35	21	South Carolina	31	17	Auburn	28
31	USC	34	48	Arizona	28	29	USC	31	35	Arizona	24
73	Southern Miss.	40	100	Rice	31	60	Southern Miss.	35	99	Rice	21
98	LA-Lafayette	37	116	FL-Atlantic	30	102	LA-Lafayette	28	114	FL-Atlantic	20
4	Stanford	43	77	UCLA	24	1	Stanford	48	78	UCLA	13
81	Syracuse	31	59	Rutgers	32	74	Syracuse	28	70	Rutgers	24
39	Temple	34	69	Toledo	27	32	Temple	31	71	Toledo	20
37	Tennessee	40	113	Buffalo	22	27	Tennessee	42	113	Buffalo	10
9	TCU	41	67	SMU	24	6	TCU	49	79	SMU	13
70	Troy	42	114	UAB	28	77	Troy	38	117	UAB	20
54	Tulsa	42	108	North Texas	27	56	Tulsa	45	111	North Texas	13
92	Army	37	105	Tulane	31	91	Army	34	88	Tulane	27
42	Navy	33	49	Air Force	30	43	Navy	28	41	Air Force	24
16	Utah	38	56	Washington	28	31	Utah	35	51	Washington	24
11	Virginia Tech	32	23	Clemson	26	11	Virginia Tech	31	16	Clemson	24
87	Virginia	35	104	Idaho	28	84	Virginia	38	105	Idaho	24
32	West Virginia	39	90	Bowling Green	26	26	West Virginia	42	93	Bowling Green	17
112	Western Kentucky	29	89	Arkansas St.	34	110	Western Kentucky	21	85	Arkansas St.	31
7	Wisconsin	37	17	Nebraska	30	4	Wisconsin	34	13	Nebraska	21

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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Week 5: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week

Texas A&M Aggies vs Arkansas Razorbacks

GUGS Score: 77.7

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
13	Arkansas	0.781	0.611	17	27.8	8	16.7	34	166.7	53
12	Texas A&M	0.791	0.594	21	22.6	30	13.3	10	176.2	12

Eddie gets yet another chance to defend the Razorbacks. The thing is that this time he might actually have a case. The Aggies and the Razorbacks are nearly symmetric versions of each other. Arkansas has a top-10 offense and good-by-not-great defense, while the Aggies have a top-10 defense and a good-but-not-great offense. This is even being played at a neutral site.  This game will come down to whether or not Arkansas can get its offense going, and minimize turnovers and mistakes. TFG says this'll be a close one, but gives the slight edge to the Aggies, but only just slightly. A&M 35, Razorbacks 33, with 51.1% confidence.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
19	Arkansas	0.867	0.569	1	22.6	11	13.0	33	165.3	81
15	Texas A&M	0.895	0.554	10	19.8	25	10.9	15	171.1	16

Here we go again. Although (20) Arkansas is ranked lower than (15) Texas A&M, RBA actually considers Arkansas the stronger team. I can imagine y'all scratching your heads at that. Arkansas's offense is more potent (32.7 +/- 20.2 PPH) than the Aggies (28.4 +/- 17.2 PPH). Their defense (2.3 +/- 21.4 PPH) is comparable to the Aggies (2.7 +/- 16.3 PPH). The real key here is the Razorbacks' variance, which is slightly higher than the Aggies. This means that they are likely to lose more games than Texas A&M, ranking them lower, even though they might actually be the stronger team, on average. My Hogs have been bitten by injuries lately, so it's difficult to really say how this one is going to play out. RBA says Arkansas 31-27.

Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game

Alabama Crimson Tide at Florida Gators

GUGS Score: 61.1

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
9	Florida	0.932	0.551	12	23.0	10	7.9	2	161.8	107
2	Alabama	1.000	0.549	17	24.0	7	6.1	1	157.6	120

You may have heard about the padawan-master comparison between Will Muschamp and Nick Saban. Well, let's just say that the student has not yet become the master. (2) Alabama is devastatingly good. They're more consistent than (9) Florida on both sides of the ball. Furthermore, they hold a 6.0 PPH offensive advantage and a 7.7 PPH defensive advantage. The only things keeping this game under control are the Crimson Tide's slow and methodical pace and Florida's home field advantage. RBA says Alabama wins a hard-hitting 28-21 game with 70.5% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
3	Florida	0.906	0.521	48	27.8	9	11.3	2	163.1	83
1	Alabama	0.952	0.580	25	31.0	1	9.4	1	157.0	116

This is about as good of a UFIO game as you can ask for, as Alabama has the top-ranked offense and the Gators have the second-rated defense. Unfortunately for Florida, the only better defense in the country will also be on the opposite sideline in Alabama crimson. The Gator offense isn't bad -- at 27.8 PPH it's the ninth-best offense in the country -- but the Alabama defense is just that much better; as the only sub-10.0 PPH defense in the country. The Gators are down 3.2 PPH on offense and 1.9 PPH on defense, meaning on a neutral site they should expect to be down about a TD over the course of a normal game. This game is being played at Florida, though, which means the Gators could make it competitive. TFG thinks this is the best shot anyone in the SEC has of slowing the Crimson Tide down the rest of the season, but even with that Alabama are favored, 32-30, with a 58.5% chance of taking home the win.

Shootout of the Week

Nevada Wolf Pack at Boise State Broncos

GUGS Score: 40.8

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2	Boise St.	0.908	0.472	77	29.6	5	11.8	4	164.4	76
45	Nevada	0.580	0.433	89	23.5	27	20.6	70	167.8	45

Having witnessed Nevada's stunning near-collapse at SJSU in person, this looks like it will be another Boise State romp. The Wolfpack isn't the same team they were last year when they knocked off Boise thanks to two stunning missed field goals, but Boise still has Kellen Moore under center. What hasn't gotten much notice is the Boise defense; they held a good Georgia team to their lowest point total so far this year, Toledo to their lowest for the year, and Tulsa to the second-lowest for the year. The only team to turn out a better defensive performance against any Boise opponent? (6) Oklahoma, and their #3 defense in the country. Look for the Broncos to shut down the Wolfpack offense and turn this into an extended offensive drill. Broncos 43, Nevada 28, with Boise at 91.2% favorites.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
5	Boise St.	0.983	0.458	97	25.6	4	9.6	7	169.2	29
61	Nevada	0.496	0.468	89	19.3	31	18.1	80	170.3	21

Notice a pattern forming here? If it wasn't apparent by now, (5) Boise State is really, really good. (61) Nevada has fallen like a rock since Colin Kaepernick's graduation. In fact, Justin and I got to see them limp to a victory against San Jose State in person two weekends ago. This game is going to be yet another Bronco execution. Nevada is weak defensively at 4.5 +/- 27.3 PPH, and Boise is as destructive as ever with a 35.3 +/- 19.2 PPH offense. Basically, the score in this game is capped by how long Chris Petersen leaves his starters in the game. RBA says that Boise rolls at home, 49-20, with 91.0% confidence.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Washington State Cougars at Colorado Buffaloes

GUGS Score: 44.5

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
73	Colorado	0.393	0.561	5	15.4	69	17.7	76	168.7	35
55	Washington St.	0.545	0.535	39	19.0	34	17.2	70	172.7	9

Yet another game between comically bad teams, Justin? I know that (55) Washington State has been on the rise thanks to Marshall Lobbestael (who?) and a resurgent offense (in Pullman?), but this jump in productivity manifests as a huge variance. Their offensive variance is a whopping 35.9 PPH, and their defensive variance is barely better at 26.7 PPH. (73) Colorado has a new head coach this season, but they're still largely the same Buffalo team that has floundered for the last few seasons. Home field keeps this game within a touchdown, but based on this season's results, we expect the Cougars to pull out a 35-28 victory with 67.4% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
71	Colorado	0.422	0.553	38	18.0	74	20.4	66	166.1	59
86	Washington St.	0.332	0.522	47	16.5	90	21.8	81	168.9	36

Yes yes yes. I'll update the algorithm in my copious free time. For this week, though, it appears that we agree on Colorado (ranked in the low 70s) but disagree on Washington State. TFG is a bit slower to adjust to big changes in a team, and as such is still skeptical that the Cougars really have a big chance here. Washington State's offense may be "resurgent" but TFG has yet to really buy into that surge. The upside is that this game between two third-quartile teams should move quickly and provide some entertainment, since both teams are n the top half of the league for pace. Quick, sloppy, and not pretty (insert a "your mom" joke here) but TFG has the Buffaloes taking this one home 34-29, with 68.2% confidence. The fun part of this game won't be the on-field action as much as it will be the commentators going on and on about conference realignment, thanks to this being a Pac-12 conference game this year.

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
TFG	37.20 - 12.80	74.41%
RBA	35.69 - 14.31	71.38%