Biggest Jumps: Nevada (+23, 53 to 30); Temple (+13, 65 to 53); Southern Miss (+13, 76 to 63)
Biggest Drops: Missouri (-21, 37 to 58); Kansas (-20, 40 to 60); Oregon State (-18, 19 to 37)
Full rankings after the jump.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Week 4: Top 25 -- RBA
Week 3 provides more clarity to the ranking landscape. We notice fewer dramatic jumps in the rankings this week as we obtain more information about how these teams really perform. Rankings should stabilize in another two weeks, so stay tuned.
New Entries: Air Force
Dropped Out: Oregon State
My hunch regarding Bay Area sports teams was half correct. Stanford looked like a legit contender when they scored touchdowns on each of their first eight possessions against Wake Forest in Palo Alto. On the other hand, Cal got blasted by Nevada 52-31 in Reno. The question you probably have to ask is, "WTF is Cal still doing in the top 15?" The Golden Bear defense got ravaged by Nevada, but their offensive efficiency is #3 nationally versus an average opponent. Since team strength is measured using pythagorean expectations, they get a big ranking bump despite getting whipped by the Wolfpack.
Speaking of offensive powerhouses, the Pac-10 is making huge strides in the poll thanks to dominant offenses. The top three offensive threats are Oregon (30.0 PPH), Stanford (29.1 PPH), and Cal (27.4 PPH). Thanks to their ability to light up the scoreboard, the Pac-10 is forcing people to reevaluate their perceptions of the conference.
| Rank | +/- | Team | WinPct | SoS | Off Pts | Def Pts | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | -- | Alabama | 0.9669 | 0.5454 | 26.2 | 6.0 | 79.0 |
| 002 | -- | Oregon | 0.9594 | 0.5342 | 30.0 | 7.6 | 87.6 |
| 003 | -- | Ohio St. | 0.9411 | 0.5358 | 23.2 | 6.9 | 80.0 |
| 004 | -- | TCU | 0.9411 | 0.4638 | 24.8 | 7.4 | 84.8 |
| 005 | -- | Stanford | 0.9338 | 0.5546 | 29.1 | 9.2 | 84.2 |
| 006 | -- | Florida | 0.9165 | 0.5580 | 24.0 | 8.5 | 80.9 |
| 007 | +4 | LSU | 0.9042 | 0.5421 | 19.7 | 7.4 | 80.5 |
| 008 | +4 | Nebraska | 0.8919 | 0.5289 | 23.1 | 9.2 | 83.6 |
| 009 | +1 | Texas | 0.8885 | 0.5156 | 22.3 | 9.0 | 84.1 |
| 010 | +3 | Arizona | 0.8836 | 0.5601 | 22.8 | 9.5 | 83.2 |
| 011 | +5 | Boise St. | 0.8801 | 0.4577 | 25.6 | 10.8 | 85.0 |
| 012 | -4 | Penn State | 0.8783 | 0.5413 | 16.5 | 7.0 | 81.9 |
| 013 | -4 | Virginia Tech | 0.8772 | 0.5350 | 23.0 | 9.8 | 79.2 |
| 014 | -7 | California | 0.8764 | 0.5327 | 27.4 | 11.7 | 84.3 |
| 015 | -1 | Iowa | 0.8527 | 0.5215 | 17.5 | 8.1 | 82.2 |
| 016 | -1 | Georgia | 0.8523 | 0.5558 | 24.5 | 11.4 | 80.0 |
| 017 | -- | South Carolina | 0.8312 | 0.5481 | 18.1 | 9.0 | 78.9 |
| 018 | -- | Oklahoma | 0.8233 | 0.5443 | 21.4 | 10.9 | 84.5 |
| 019 | +2 | Utah | 0.8089 | 0.4613 | 21.4 | 11.4 | 83.5 |
| 020 | +5 | Arkansas | 0.8070 | 0.5642 | 22.2 | 11.9 | 82.5 |
| 021 | -1 | Miami-FL | 0.8067 | 0.5530 | 19.2 | 10.3 | 81.2 |
| 022 | +1 | Mississippi St. | 0.7912 | 0.5611 | 19.3 | 10.8 | 80.8 |
| 023 | -1 | Georgia Tech | 0.7876 | 0.5311 | 25.2 | 14.2 | 82.1 |
| 024 | -- | USC | 0.7857 | 0.5350 | 22.3 | 12.7 | 83.5 |
| 025 | +1 | Air Force | 0.7741 | 0.4753 | 17.7 | 10.4 | 82.5 |
New Entries: Air Force
Dropped Out: Oregon State
My hunch regarding Bay Area sports teams was half correct. Stanford looked like a legit contender when they scored touchdowns on each of their first eight possessions against Wake Forest in Palo Alto. On the other hand, Cal got blasted by Nevada 52-31 in Reno. The question you probably have to ask is, "WTF is Cal still doing in the top 15?" The Golden Bear defense got ravaged by Nevada, but their offensive efficiency is #3 nationally versus an average opponent. Since team strength is measured using pythagorean expectations, they get a big ranking bump despite getting whipped by the Wolfpack.
Speaking of offensive powerhouses, the Pac-10 is making huge strides in the poll thanks to dominant offenses. The top three offensive threats are Oregon (30.0 PPH), Stanford (29.1 PPH), and Cal (27.4 PPH). Thanks to their ability to light up the scoreboard, the Pac-10 is forcing people to reevaluate their perceptions of the conference.
Week 3: Wrap-Up
Week 3 is officially in the books. Before we start looking forward to Alabama-Arkansas and Boise-Oregon State, we can take a quick look back at how TFG and RBA performed.
Eddie
Accuracy: 42-11 (79.2%)
The Good: Although the pick was incorrect, RBA calling Wisconsin-Arizona State a coin flip was entirely accurate. Wisconsin won by (a) blocking an extra point in the 4th quarter and (b) tackling the Sun Devil kick returner at the WIS 1 before halftime to save a TD. For comparison, 97.36% of participants in ESPN's college pick'em chose Wisconsin with an average confidence of 7.38 out of 10. Honorable mention goes to picking the Auburn-Clemson score exactly.
The Bad: Ole Miss over Vanderbilt with 5:1 odds. Don't get me wrong; I'm ecstatic that the Rebels lost. However, a team that loses to a D-IAA opponent shouldn't be that high. Chalk this one down to the low priority I've given to fixing the D-IAA hole in RBA.
The Ugly: All the picks from Thursday and Friday nights, but especially Cal over Nevada. I felt that #7 was too high for the Golden Bears, but I never expected Nevada to take them behind the woodshed like that.
Accuracy: 42-11 (79.2%)
The Good: Although the pick was incorrect, RBA calling Wisconsin-Arizona State a coin flip was entirely accurate. Wisconsin won by (a) blocking an extra point in the 4th quarter and (b) tackling the Sun Devil kick returner at the WIS 1 before halftime to save a TD. For comparison, 97.36% of participants in ESPN's college pick'em chose Wisconsin with an average confidence of 7.38 out of 10. Honorable mention goes to picking the Auburn-Clemson score exactly.
The Bad: Ole Miss over Vanderbilt with 5:1 odds. Don't get me wrong; I'm ecstatic that the Rebels lost. However, a team that loses to a D-IAA opponent shouldn't be that high. Chalk this one down to the low priority I've given to fixing the D-IAA hole in RBA.
The Ugly: All the picks from Thursday and Friday nights, but especially Cal over Nevada. I felt that #7 was too high for the Golden Bears, but I never expected Nevada to take them behind the woodshed like that.
Justin
Accuracy: 41-12 (77.4%)
The Good: Pointing out that all the Thursday and Friday games were going to be much closer than conventional wisdom expected. In fact none of the favorites won, and the home teams swept the visitors. The storyline for Kansas appears to be "we can't figure out this team," but TFG is pretty sure that (for now) it's just early-season-on-the-road jitters. I wasn't quite as sure about the closeness of Iowa-Arizona as Eddie, but knew that it and the Clemson-Auburn game were going to be two of the best games on Saturday.
The Bad: I'm with Eddie; Ole Miss-Vandy should have been a cakewalk for the Rebels, but it appears there might be something to the Houston-Nutt-blows-games-he-should-win school of thought.
The Ugly: Some idiot said something about Florida State-BYU being a coin toss. That person is an idiot.
Overall Season Accuracy
Justin: 113-24 (82.5%)
Overall Season Accuracy
Justin: 113-24 (82.5%)
Eddie: 112-25 (81.8%)
At the start of this year Eddie tested the revised RBA algorithm against TFG using data from the 2003-2009 seasons and had an accuracy rating that was about 0.6% behind TFG. This translates to one missed game for every 167 played. Well here we are 137 games into the year and RBA is 1 game behind TFG. It appears that for now past performance is indicative of future gains.
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Week 3: Saturday Predictions
Full predictions after the jump. Justin's picks are in blue, Eddie's are in yellow.
Week 3: Saturday Matchups
After the success of GUGS last week, we bring you this round of Games You Gotta See. As always, we focus on the most interesting game between two teams from BCS conferences, the most interesting game between two teams from non-BCS conferences, the most interesting game between a BCS team and a non-BCS team, and the overall Game of the Week. We'll also examine big games that failed to make the cut and explain why.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Arizona Wildcats
GUGS Score: 89.4
Eddie: (14) Iowa faces off against (13) Arizona in a matchup that RBA predicts with only 53% confidence. Iowa has the better offense and defense at 15.2 PPH and 10.8 PPH, respectively. Arizona can only muster 13.4 PPH of offense and 17.1 PPH of defense. However, they're playing in Tempe (+3 points for Arizona), and Iowa maintains a slow pace of 164 plays/game, implying that the Hawkeyes will have fewer opportunities to exploit their advantage. All this adds up to a close game with Iowa pulling off the win: 25-24.
Justin: (10) Iowa goes on the road to visit (19) Arizona in a game of two so-so offenses but solid defenses. The Hawkeyes continue to get it done with defense, but will get tested with an early road trip. Home field advantage is huge this early in the season, and Arizona is going to need every single bit of crowd noise and momentum to pull off the upset. The Hawkeyes' defense is the 5th-best in Division I-A, allowing a mere 10.4 PPH; Arizona's defense is still a respectable 13.5 PPH, but even factoring in home field advantage this will be a coin toss. TFG says Iowa 29-28, with a 55.4% chance of winning.
Clemson Tigers at Auburn Tigers.
GUGS Score: 85.9
Justin: The (21) Clemson Tigers visit the (31) Auburn Tigers in a marquee ACC-SEC showdown. These teams are almost mirror images of each other, efficiency-wise, around 21.0 PPH on the offensive side and 14.0 PPH on the defense, give or take about 1.0 PPH. The downside for Auburn is that Clemson has the slight advantage on either side of the ball; the upside for Auburn is that they're at home. The one area where these teams diverge is pace: Auburn averages an extra 12 plays per game, so might try and turn this into a track meet. They're going to need all the help they get, because TFG has Auburn as 31-30 favorites, but only with 52.7% odds.
Eddie: [Insert tired joke about Tigers winning.] Although (28) Clemson is ranked higher than (36) Auburn, they match up quite well. Auburn's offense is flashy, but their defense is more likely to win the day against Clemson. Auburn's defense is amazingly consistent, varying only 3.8 PPH across all opponent levels, whereas Clemson's may vary by up to 13.1 PPH. RBA says that home field edges the game in favor of Auburn: 27-24 with 55.5% confidence.
Brigham Young Cougars at Florida State Seminoles.
GUGS Score: 80.7
Eddie: (46) Florida State may be playing at home, but they're looking up at the (30) Cougars. Only 0.8 PPH separate BYU and FSU offensively, but the Seminoles have been woeful on the defensive side of the ball. RBA expects FSU to surrender 21.5 PPH, as opposed to 14.8 PPH for BYU. Home field advantage keeps the game close, but BYU should win this one 31-28 with 63.9% confidence.
Justin: The (49) Seminoles host the (30) Cougars in our top BCS/non-BCS matchup of the week. BYU is fresh off a road loss to (20) Air Force, and looking to get back on track. The Seminoles and the Cougars both sport offensive efficiencies in the low 20s, but BYU has almost a 5.0 PPH advantage on the defensive side of the ball. Florida State is going to need to overcome that massive disadvantage if they want any hope of winning. TFG pegs this game as quite literally too close to call; Florida State gets to edge, but they need 4 decimal places to make it work, as TFG has them winning 35-34, but with 50.0% odds.
Fresno State Bulldogs at Utah State Aggies
GUGS Score: 72.1
Justin: Our non-BCS game of the week has (58) Fresno State visiting (74) Utah State. Fresno State is just above 0.500 in the TFG rankings, whereas Utah State is hovering just above 0.400. Fresno State sports a reasonably good offense at 21.6 PPH, but makes up for it with a thoroughly mediocre defense that allows 21.2 PPH. Utah State is in much worse shape, with nearly a -3.0 net PPH. The Aggies' home field advantage should make this one very competitive, though, as Fresno State has only a 50.1% chance of pulling off the 36-34 road victory.
Eddie: (63) Fresno State whipped Cincinnati two weeks ago, but that's not saying much these days. (86) Utah State's claim to fame is keeping Oklahoma in check. Conventional wisdom would suggest that Utah State would have an advantage playing at home. However, the Bulldogs match up very well against the Aggies' defense at 20.0 PPH. Utah State can only expect 15.5 PPH. As in the previous matchup, home field gives the Aggies a chance, but Fresno State should win this one 31-28 with 66.6% confidence.
Games you probably wanted us to preview:
Arkansas Razorbacks at Georgia Bulldogs.
GUGS Score: 82.7
Should be a good game, just not quite as competitive as Clemson/Auburn. Eddie swears that Arkansas is going to win this game, even though both TFG and RBA disagree.
Texas Longhorns at Texas Tech Red Raiders.
GUGS Score: 71.8
Not competitive. RBA says the expected scores should be close but is fairly confident that Texas wins this one with 68.8% confidence; TFG concurs, picking the Longhorns as a one-FG favorite and 61.6% favorites.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Washington Huskies.
GUGS Score: 60.2
Not competitive. Jake Locker continues his inexplicable journey to Todd McShay's #1 draft pick against a nasty Cornhusker defense. RBA gives the Huskies only 27.8% probability of winning at home. TFG is slightly more optimistic for Washington, but still says they've only got 29.5% odds of winning.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Arizona Wildcats
GUGS Score: 89.4
Eddie: (14) Iowa faces off against (13) Arizona in a matchup that RBA predicts with only 53% confidence. Iowa has the better offense and defense at 15.2 PPH and 10.8 PPH, respectively. Arizona can only muster 13.4 PPH of offense and 17.1 PPH of defense. However, they're playing in Tempe (+3 points for Arizona), and Iowa maintains a slow pace of 164 plays/game, implying that the Hawkeyes will have fewer opportunities to exploit their advantage. All this adds up to a close game with Iowa pulling off the win: 25-24.
Justin: (10) Iowa goes on the road to visit (19) Arizona in a game of two so-so offenses but solid defenses. The Hawkeyes continue to get it done with defense, but will get tested with an early road trip. Home field advantage is huge this early in the season, and Arizona is going to need every single bit of crowd noise and momentum to pull off the upset. The Hawkeyes' defense is the 5th-best in Division I-A, allowing a mere 10.4 PPH; Arizona's defense is still a respectable 13.5 PPH, but even factoring in home field advantage this will be a coin toss. TFG says Iowa 29-28, with a 55.4% chance of winning.
Clemson Tigers at Auburn Tigers.
GUGS Score: 85.9
Justin: The (21) Clemson Tigers visit the (31) Auburn Tigers in a marquee ACC-SEC showdown. These teams are almost mirror images of each other, efficiency-wise, around 21.0 PPH on the offensive side and 14.0 PPH on the defense, give or take about 1.0 PPH. The downside for Auburn is that Clemson has the slight advantage on either side of the ball; the upside for Auburn is that they're at home. The one area where these teams diverge is pace: Auburn averages an extra 12 plays per game, so might try and turn this into a track meet. They're going to need all the help they get, because TFG has Auburn as 31-30 favorites, but only with 52.7% odds.
Eddie: [Insert tired joke about Tigers winning.] Although (28) Clemson is ranked higher than (36) Auburn, they match up quite well. Auburn's offense is flashy, but their defense is more likely to win the day against Clemson. Auburn's defense is amazingly consistent, varying only 3.8 PPH across all opponent levels, whereas Clemson's may vary by up to 13.1 PPH. RBA says that home field edges the game in favor of Auburn: 27-24 with 55.5% confidence.
Brigham Young Cougars at Florida State Seminoles.
GUGS Score: 80.7
Eddie: (46) Florida State may be playing at home, but they're looking up at the (30) Cougars. Only 0.8 PPH separate BYU and FSU offensively, but the Seminoles have been woeful on the defensive side of the ball. RBA expects FSU to surrender 21.5 PPH, as opposed to 14.8 PPH for BYU. Home field advantage keeps the game close, but BYU should win this one 31-28 with 63.9% confidence.
Justin: The (49) Seminoles host the (30) Cougars in our top BCS/non-BCS matchup of the week. BYU is fresh off a road loss to (20) Air Force, and looking to get back on track. The Seminoles and the Cougars both sport offensive efficiencies in the low 20s, but BYU has almost a 5.0 PPH advantage on the defensive side of the ball. Florida State is going to need to overcome that massive disadvantage if they want any hope of winning. TFG pegs this game as quite literally too close to call; Florida State gets to edge, but they need 4 decimal places to make it work, as TFG has them winning 35-34, but with 50.0% odds.
Fresno State Bulldogs at Utah State Aggies
GUGS Score: 72.1
Justin: Our non-BCS game of the week has (58) Fresno State visiting (74) Utah State. Fresno State is just above 0.500 in the TFG rankings, whereas Utah State is hovering just above 0.400. Fresno State sports a reasonably good offense at 21.6 PPH, but makes up for it with a thoroughly mediocre defense that allows 21.2 PPH. Utah State is in much worse shape, with nearly a -3.0 net PPH. The Aggies' home field advantage should make this one very competitive, though, as Fresno State has only a 50.1% chance of pulling off the 36-34 road victory.
Eddie: (63) Fresno State whipped Cincinnati two weeks ago, but that's not saying much these days. (86) Utah State's claim to fame is keeping Oklahoma in check. Conventional wisdom would suggest that Utah State would have an advantage playing at home. However, the Bulldogs match up very well against the Aggies' defense at 20.0 PPH. Utah State can only expect 15.5 PPH. As in the previous matchup, home field gives the Aggies a chance, but Fresno State should win this one 31-28 with 66.6% confidence.
Games you probably wanted us to preview:
Arkansas Razorbacks at Georgia Bulldogs.
GUGS Score: 82.7
Should be a good game, just not quite as competitive as Clemson/Auburn. Eddie swears that Arkansas is going to win this game, even though both TFG and RBA disagree.
Texas Longhorns at Texas Tech Red Raiders.
GUGS Score: 71.8
Not competitive. RBA says the expected scores should be close but is fairly confident that Texas wins this one with 68.8% confidence; TFG concurs, picking the Longhorns as a one-FG favorite and 61.6% favorites.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Washington Huskies.
GUGS Score: 60.2
Not competitive. Jake Locker continues his inexplicable journey to Todd McShay's #1 draft pick against a nasty Cornhusker defense. RBA gives the Huskies only 27.8% probability of winning at home. TFG is slightly more optimistic for Washington, but still says they've only got 29.5% odds of winning.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Week 3: Thursday and Friday Predictions
The Thursday/Friday games of week 3 show TFG and RBA in complete consensus about the projected winners, but TFG is significantly less confident than RBA about the favorites running the table over the next 36 hours. All three projected victors are the visiting teams, and we're still early enough in the season that home field advantage means something. Interestingly enough, one team facing the uphill battle against home field advantage is Kansas, who rode momentum and a track meet against heavy favorite Georgia Tech to an upset victory at home. This week they're on the road facing Southern Miss in what TFG predicts will be a real nailbiter. This may not be Iowa-Arizona game of Saturday, but both Friday games have the potential to be interesting.
TFG says the favorites have an 18% chance of running the table; RBA says that's closer to 39%. We'll find out soon enough.
TFG says the favorites have an 18% chance of running the table; RBA says that's closer to 39%. We'll find out soon enough.
| Home | Visitors | Odds | Home | Visitors | Odds | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (66) | North Carolina St. | 32 | (32) | Cincinnati | 34 | 61.3 | (67) | North Carolina St. | 27 | (44) | Cincinnati | 31 | 64.7 |
| (48) | Nevada | 34 | (26) | California | 36 | 53.7 | (53) | Nevada | 21 | (7) | California | 38 | 84.4 |
| (72) | Southern Miss. | 33 | (50) | Kansas | 34 | 55.5 | (76) | Southern Miss. | 24 | (40) | Kansas | 34 | 71.5 |
Monday, September 13, 2010
Week 3: Full Rankings -- RBA
Biggest jumps: California (+20, 27 to 7); Baylor (+20, 80 to 60); Air Force (+14, 40 to 26); Texas A&M (+14, 53 to 39).
Biggest drops: Mississippi (-18, 13 to 31); Boston College (-18, 40 to 58); Oklahoma State (-13, 22 to 35); Buffalo (-13, 95 to 108); Colorado State (-13, 101 to 114).
Full rankings after the jump.
Biggest drops: Mississippi (-18, 13 to 31); Boston College (-18, 40 to 58); Oklahoma State (-13, 22 to 35); Buffalo (-13, 95 to 108); Colorado State (-13, 101 to 114).
Full rankings after the jump.
Week 3: Top 25 -- RBA
Eddie is on a campus recruiting trip, so there is still no FCS input. Keep this in mind when judging Virginia Tech.
New Entries: California, Utah, Mississippi State
Dropped Out: BYU, Mississippi, Oklahoma State
Who says Bay Area sports teams are terrible? We shouldn't get ahead of ourselves at this point since the rankings are still in flux. However, there's no denying that Stanford and Cal laid the wood to UCLA and Colorado, respectively. They experienced major jumps thanks to strong performances on both sides of the ball. Expect them to settle to their natural locations in the next three weeks or so, as RBA is fairly volatile during the first five weeks of the season.
Alabama and Oregon are separating themselves from the pack, but it's still early. Justin and I going to be watching Alabama closely in the next two weeks as they play our alma maters, Duke and Arkansas. Oregon should remain relatively unchallenged until they face Stanford in three weeks.
| Rank | +/- | Team | WinPct | SoS | Off Pts | Def Pts | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | -- | Alabama | 0.9645 | 0.5486 | 24.0 | 5.7 | 79.0 |
| 002 | -- | Oregon | 0.9594 | 0.5338 | 30.0 | 7.6 | 87.6 |
| 003 | -- | Ohio St. | 0.9290 | 0.5359 | 22.2 | 7.2 | 80.1 |
| 004 | -- | TCU | 0.9255 | 0.4658 | 23.4 | 7.8 | 84.9 |
| 005 | +13 | Stanford | 0.9252 | 0.5557 | 23.5 | 7.9 | 84.2 |
| 006 | -1 | Florida | 0.9193 | 0.5571 | 24.0 | 8.4 | 80.9 |
| 007 | +20 | California | 0.9061 | 0.5329 | 27.1 | 10.1 | 84.4 |
| 008 | -2 | Penn State | 0.8903 | 0.5418 | 19.3 | 7.8 | 82.0 |
| 010 | -1 | Texas | 0.8855 | 0.5141 | 22.9 | 9.4 | 84.1 |
| 011 | +3 | LSU | 0.8785 | 0.5436 | 19.1 | 8.1 | 80.6 |
| 012 | -5 | Nebraska | 0.8749 | 0.5297 | 20.3 | 8.7 | 83.7 |
| 013 | -3 | Arizona | 0.8748 | 0.5597 | 22.1 | 9.5 | 83.2 |
| 014 | +11 | Iowa | 0.8603 | 0.5212 | 17.4 | 7.9 | 82.2 |
| 015 | -3 | Georgia | 0.8578 | 0.5544 | 24.4 | 11.2 | 80.0 |
| 016 | -5 | Boise St. | 0.8574 | 0.4584 | 25.3 | 11.6 | 85.0 |
| 017 | -2 | South Carolina | 0.8312 | 0.5481 | 18.1 | 9.0 | 78.9 |
| 018 | +5 | Oklahoma | 0.8288 | 0.5439 | 21.5 | 10.8 | 84.5 |
| 019 | -2 | Oregon St. | 0.8096 | 0.5444 | 21.5 | 11.5 | 86.2 |
| 020 | -- | Miami-FL | 0.8067 | 0.5526 | 19.2 | 10.3 | 81.2 |
| 021 | +9 | Utah | 0.8001 | 0.4634 | 19.8 | 10.9 | 83.5 |
| 022 | -6 | Georgia Tech | 0.7988 | 0.5337 | 25.3 | 13.9 | 82.2 |
| 023 | +3 | Mississippi St. | 0.7973 | 0.5579 | 19.6 | 10.8 | 80.9 |
| 024 | -- | USC | 0.7920 | 0.5355 | 22.3 | 12.5 | 83.6 |
| 025 | -6 | Arkansas | 0.7911 | 0.5630 | 21.8 | 12.2 | 82.6 |
New Entries: California, Utah, Mississippi State
Dropped Out: BYU, Mississippi, Oklahoma State
Who says Bay Area sports teams are terrible? We shouldn't get ahead of ourselves at this point since the rankings are still in flux. However, there's no denying that Stanford and Cal laid the wood to UCLA and Colorado, respectively. They experienced major jumps thanks to strong performances on both sides of the ball. Expect them to settle to their natural locations in the next three weeks or so, as RBA is fairly volatile during the first five weeks of the season.
Alabama and Oregon are separating themselves from the pack, but it's still early. Justin and I going to be watching Alabama closely in the next two weeks as they play our alma maters, Duke and Arkansas. Oregon should remain relatively unchallenged until they face Stanford in three weeks.
Week 2: Wrap-up
Week 2 is in the books, and the TFG was silent on what was arguably the biggest story of the weekend: the 20-13 upset of Ohio by Toledo. Going into the game, Toledo had less than a 1-in-5 shot of winning, but still managed to pull off the upset, holding the high-flying Ohio offense to a mere third of its predicted output. This is bad news for Ohio, as they were hoping to gain some momentum going into this week's game against in-state rivals Ohio State.
Also, I'm being told that some team in Blacksburg, Virginia was defeated by a team in Harrisonburg, Virginia. I'm also being told that it was a I-AA team over a I-A team, which means it's outside the scope of TFG analysis and therefore uninteresting. (Seriously, though, I might have to put some logic in my system that detects when an ACC team is playing as the favorite and reverse that logic. Especially when it's two ACC teams playing each other. They're like a vortex of anti-prediction.)
Justin
Accuracy: 39-6 (86.7%)
The Good: I'm generally pleased with how TFG performed this week, getting Air Force/BYU correct, predicting that Georgia Tech/Kansas wasn't going to be the complete romp that conventional wisdom predicted, and knowing that both Penn State/Alabama and Miami/Ohio State were going to be completely lopsided ballgames that generally wouldn't be worth watching.
The Bad: I don't have too much to complain about here. The ones I got wrong were generally predicted to be close ones (see: Rice at North Texas) or involved some unexpected last-minute heroics (see: Michigan at Notre Dame).
The Ugly: Let's just pretend I never dismissed North Carolina State out of hand and said that the NCSU/UCF game wouldn't be worth watching, mmkay?
Eddie
Accuracy: 37-8 (82.2%)
The Good: I agree with Justin here. RBA knew that the Miami/Ohio State and Alabama/Penn State games weren't going to be as good as ESPN wanted you to believe.
The Bad: I made the mistake of injecting the human element into my Georgia Tech pick. Not only was the game closer than the experts would predict, but Kansas actually pulled off the upset.
The Ugly: Picking Oklahoma State as a +28 point favorite in a game that they really should have lost. Troy got zero points on two trips inside the oSu 10 yard line down 34-30.
Also, I'm being told that some team in Blacksburg, Virginia was defeated by a team in Harrisonburg, Virginia. I'm also being told that it was a I-AA team over a I-A team, which means it's outside the scope of TFG analysis and therefore uninteresting. (Seriously, though, I might have to put some logic in my system that detects when an ACC team is playing as the favorite and reverse that logic. Especially when it's two ACC teams playing each other. They're like a vortex of anti-prediction.)
Justin
Accuracy: 39-6 (86.7%)
The Good: I'm generally pleased with how TFG performed this week, getting Air Force/BYU correct, predicting that Georgia Tech/Kansas wasn't going to be the complete romp that conventional wisdom predicted, and knowing that both Penn State/Alabama and Miami/Ohio State were going to be completely lopsided ballgames that generally wouldn't be worth watching.
The Bad: I don't have too much to complain about here. The ones I got wrong were generally predicted to be close ones (see: Rice at North Texas) or involved some unexpected last-minute heroics (see: Michigan at Notre Dame).
The Ugly: Let's just pretend I never dismissed North Carolina State out of hand and said that the NCSU/UCF game wouldn't be worth watching, mmkay?
Eddie
Accuracy: 37-8 (82.2%)
The Good: I agree with Justin here. RBA knew that the Miami/Ohio State and Alabama/Penn State games weren't going to be as good as ESPN wanted you to believe.
The Bad: I made the mistake of injecting the human element into my Georgia Tech pick. Not only was the game closer than the experts would predict, but Kansas actually pulled off the upset.
The Ugly: Picking Oklahoma State as a +28 point favorite in a game that they really should have lost. Troy got zero points on two trips inside the oSu 10 yard line down 34-30.
Sunday, September 12, 2010
Week 3: Full Rankings -- TFG
Biggest jumps: Baylor (+22, 90 to 60); California (+20, 46 to 26); SMU (+16, 85 to 69).
Biggest drops: Colorado (-18, 63 to 81); Florida State (-14, 35 to 49); Tennessee (-13, 32 to 45).
Full rankings after the jump.
Biggest drops: Colorado (-18, 63 to 81); Florida State (-14, 35 to 49); Tennessee (-13, 32 to 45).
Full rankings after the jump.
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