Week 1: Wrap-up

Week 1 is officially in the books.  It was an exciting weekend with amazing last-minute victories by Boise State, East Carolina, and Jacksonville State.  It's time to take a look back and see how we did with limited information.

Eddie

Accuracy:  33-6 (85%)

Eddie is so smart because:  Boise State beat Virginia Tech by exactly three points, although it was slightly higher scoring than predicted.  Speaking of which, RBA went 65% against the spread last week.

Eddie is a moron because:  Fresno State whipped Cincinnati 28-14.  Although the Bearcats jumped out to a 14 point lead, their offensive line had no answer for a Bulldog defense that sacked Cincinnati QB Zach Collaros eight times.  After a slow start, Fresno State beat Cincinnati in all phases in a game that wasn't as close as the score indicates.

Eddie wants a mulligan on:  Maryland over Navy.  The Middies missed a field goal, fumbled twice at the Maryland one-yard-line, displayed LSU-like clock management before halftime, and were stopped no more than six inches from the goal line on the final play of the game when they could have kicked the field goal to send the game into overtime.

Eddie got lucky on:  East Carolina over Tulsa.  ECU needed a Hail Mary to beat Tulsa.  Enough said.

Justin

Accuracy:  33-6 (85%)

Justin is so smart because:  My computer expected to get 33.037 games correct this week, and had to settle for 33 on the nose. The ones I got wrong were either expected to be close games (BSU/VT, East. Mich./Army) or had such weird stuff happen that no one can or will be able to explain it (Navy gets all butterfingers inside the 3 around Maryland, Fresno State managed to trick Cincy into replacing their defense with the local Girl Scout troop at halftime). I can live with getting those wrong.

Justin is a moron because:  Maybe picking Middle Tennessee over Minnesota wasn't the best idea in the world. I'm having a word with my talent scouts now to see what the hell they were thinking.

Justin wants a mulligan on:  Maryland over Navy. See Eddie's section for a good summary. At least in the football stadium you can't hear the Terps chanting "[eff] you, [opponent] ::clap clap clap-clap-clap::" like you can during basketball season.

Justin got lucky on:  ECU over Tulsa. For those who didn't see it, you should really check out the drive log to see what it was like in the second half. It's like both teams watched the Cincy/Fresno State game and said, "Now Cincinnati ... there's a defense! We can be just like them!"

Week 2: Full Rankings -- RBA

I'm having some script issues, so no summary of risers and floppers this week.  As mentioned in the Top 25 summary, I'm working to include FBS games in RBA, meaning that Ole Miss should be pretty much ignored here.  Full rankings after the jump.

Week 2: Top 25 -- RBA

First order of business:  Yes, I know that Ole Miss is way too high.  We have not historically been grabbing FCS games because teams that lose to FCS opponents are generally pretty bad to begin with.  Until the import tool can grab FCS data reliably, we're stuck with Ole Miss in the top 25.  Don't panic -- they'll drop as soon as possible.

Since we're on the subject of anomalies:

1. Virginia Tech is ranked above Boise State:  From a statistical perspective, Virginia Tech and Boise State played dead even in a game that wasn't settled until a minute left in the game.  The separation between the Hokies and the Broncos has more to do with Texas dropping and Arizona rising than the result of Monday's game.
2. Major churn in the top 25:  RBA has a higher weight factor on the current season than TFG, so teams have major jumps based upon their performances in the first game.  Since Oregon, Arizona, and Nebraska smoked their week 1 opponents, they had a major jump.  Expect these to smoothen out over time as we observe more games.
3. Southern Cal's precipitous drop:  The Trojans played poor defense against a vastly inferior Hawaii team, increasing their defensive efficiency by 4.4 PPH. That's going to hurt your ranking.
4. The Oklahoma love-fest concluded:  Oklahoma has dropped from the top 5 all the way down to 23rd.  That's what happens when you lose 7.6 PPH of offensive efficiency against a bottom 50 team.

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS	Off Pts	Def Pts	Pace
001	--	Alabama	0.9523	0.5479	23.9	6.5	79.1
002	--	Oregon	0.9466	0.5317	29.2	8.4	87.6
003	--	Ohio St.	0.9329	0.5337	21.6	6.9	80.0
004	--	TCU	0.9255	0.4657	23.4	7.8	84.9
005	--	Florida	0.9156	0.5578	23.8	8.4	80.9
006	--	Penn St.	0.9002	0.5399	19.7	7.6	82.1
007	--	Nebraska	0.8941	0.5314	20.6	8.2	83.7
008	--	Virginia Tech	0.8879	0.5364	20.6	8.4	79.2
009	--	Texas	0.8766	0.5137	23.6	10.1	84.2
010	--	Arizona	0.8748	0.5586	22.1	9.5	83.2
011	--	Boise St.	0.8592	0.4587	25.2	11.5	85.1
012	--	Georgia	0.8527	0.5540	25.5	11.9	80.1
013	--	Mississippi	0.8430	0.5224	22.2	10.7	81.8
014	--	LSU	0.8379	0.5455	19.7	9.6	80.7
015	--	South Carolina	0.8158	0.5465	18.0	9.4	79.0
016	--	Georgia Tech	0.8156	0.5358	26.3	13.8	82.2
017	--	Oregon St.	0.8096	0.5434	21.5	11.5	86.2
018	--	Stanford	0.8074	0.5558	23.0	12.3	84.3
019	--	Arkansas	0.8027	0.5645	26.7	14.5	82.6
020	--	Miami (FL)	0.8006	0.5506	19.1	10.5	81.2
021	--	BYU	0.7996	0.4829	21.4	11.7	85.3
022	--	Oklahoma St.	0.7974	0.5515	22.6	12.5	85.0
023	--	Oklahoma	0.7974	0.5415	20.2	11.1	84.4
024	--	Southern Cal	0.7894	0.5352	23.3	13.1	83.6
025	--	Iowa	0.7867	0.5216	16.1	9.2	82.2

Expect the top 25 to be fairly fluid until around week 5 when teams stop whipping overmatched non-conference opponents and start playing more familiar teams.

Week 2: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Arizona (+15, 38 to 23); South Carolina (+15, 44 to 29); Iowa State (+15, 85 to 70).

Biggest drops: Southern Miss (-17, 58 to 75); Northern Illinois (-16, 71 to 87); Cincinnati (-14, 19 to 33).

Full rankings after the jump.

Current Rankings -- TFG

Update: as of August 2, 2012, the most recent TFG rankings have been moved to this page.

Week 2: Top 25 -- TFG

This past week saw very little action between top-ranked teams, except for the thriller between Boise State and Virginia Tech. When looking at these rankings, keep in mind that they are by and large still a reflection of last year's season. A mere 11.8% of the statistical weight that goes into these rankings is from the games you just saw, while a full 66.2% comes from the 2009-2010 season. The remainder comes from even older data.

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS	Off Pts	Def Pts	Pace
001	+2	Alabama	0.9422	0.5830	27.4	8.7	79.2
002	-1	Florida	0.9275	0.5797	30.7	10.9	77.0
003	+1	Ohio St.	0.9272	0.5339	24.3	8.6	81.4
004	-2	TCU	0.9102	0.5172	24.3	9.5	83.0
005	--	Texas	0.8855	0.5142	27.8	12.2	83.8
006	+7	Oregon	0.8847	0.5512	25.3	11.1	90.7
007	+1	Boise St.	0.8795	0.4951	26.7	11.9	84.5
008	+1	Penn State	0.8788	0.5778	22.7	10.1	80.7
009	-2	Virginia Tech	0.8707	0.6519	26.4	12.1	80.3
010	-4	Oklahoma	0.8497	0.6212	21.5	10.7	89.3
011	+1	Iowa	0.8343	0.6018	21.2	11.0	80.4
012	-1	Nebraska	0.8309	0.4498	21.2	11.1	80.4
013	+2	LSU	0.8158	0.6409	22.1	12.0	82.3
014	-4	USC	0.8118	0.5614	22.6	12.5	84.5
015	-1	Texas Tech	0.7723	0.5349	24.6	15.1	88.9
016	NA	Georgia	0.7643	0.5835	26.2	16.3	79.7
017	-1	Utah	0.7572	0.4982	21.4	13.6	84.9
018	+2	Mississippi	0.7555	0.6323	21.5	13.6	81.6
019	+2	Clemson	0.7448	0.5111	20.8	13.3	81.9
020	+2	Georgia Tech	0.7412	0.6616	27.0	17.6	79.0
021	-4	BYU	0.7382	0.4596	21.5	14.2	85.2
022	-4	Pittsburgh	0.7337	0.5870	23.2	15.4	81.5
023	NA	Arizona	0.7332	0.5211	20.2	13.5	82.5
024	NA	Oregon St.	0.7298	0.6649	23.3	15.7	84.4
025	NA	Arkansas	0.7291	0.6629	25.3	16.8	83.4

New entries: Georgia, Arizona, Oregon State, Arkansas.

Dropped out: Miami-FL, Stanford, Cincinnati, Air Force.

Even after one week the computer polls begin to fall in line with people's expectations. Alabama and Ohio State rise to the top, USC and Texas Tech slip downwards. Georgia gets bonus points for manhandling LA-Lafayette, and Oregon is rewarded mightily for pounding New Mexico. After a few weeks, however, these lopsided wins will start fading into the statistical noise as TFG is reminded that neither LAL nor UNM is a powerhouse this year, and a big win counts for little. Ole Miss is saved by the fact that games against I-AA opponents aren't taken into account; we may have to fix that eventually.

The Pac10 makes a strong start out of the gate, placing 4 teams in the top 25, second only to the 6 teams from the SEC. This early on it's difficult for the computers to pick anything out of the noise, though.

Week 1: Saturday, Sunday, and Monday Predictions

Full predictions after the jump.  Justin's are in blue, Eddie's are in yellow

Week 1: Saturday Matchups

Welcome back, TFG readers!  It's been a long offseason, and we've been busy during the offseason.  We're looking forward to seeing how the new algorithm works out.  Week 1 picks are always tough because we have to assume that this week's teams are the same teams that finished last season.  Since that isn't the case, we expect a lower accuracy early, so you should mock the picks now before they start punching you in the face around Week 3.

Boise State Broncos vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (in Washington, D.C.).

Eddie:  This game should probably be a home field advantage for (11) Virginia Tech, but I'm sticking with the neutral rating because (13) Boise State has earned the right to be treated as an equal.  Boise State doesn't get the love from RBA that it does from the human polls because their offense tends to disappear against stronger teams, as evidenced by their 19 point performance versus (12) Oregon and 17 point showing against (2) TCU.  Virginia Tech's defense is a solid 13.2 PPH in this matchup, so we shouldn't expect this one to turn into a shootout.  The question is if Virginia Tech can overcome a particularly underrated 12.9 PPH Boise State defense behind a powerful running game.  The Hokies will try to play keep away (163 plays/game), and the Broncos will try to run (174 plays/game).  This game should be every bit as good as advertised with only 53.7% confidence.  RBA says the Broncos will be taking their first step towards a mythical national championship game:  27-24.
Justin: Even though (8) Boise State finished the year as one of only two undefeated teams in college football, they weren't quite as impressive as (6) Virginia Tech. Both offenses tied for fourth in the country last year behind only Florida, Texas, and Texas Tech. In the end it came down to defense, with the Hokies allowing 0.4 PPH fewer than the Broncos, and on that basis TFG picks the Hokies to eek out a victory in the highlight of the season opener: 32-30.

Connecticut Huskies at Michigan Wolverines.

Justin: One of these teams has an anemic offense that aspires to the high-octane efficiency of the UTEP Miners, and is paired with a defense that got shown up efficiency-wise by the likes of Wyoming. And then there's the (37) Huskies. UConn put on a decent show last year, flirting with the 20 PPH mark on the offensive side, while holding opponents to a respectable 15.9 PPH. This game should move at a decent clip, as both teams average over 170 plays per game. Home field advantage -- particularly effective at the beginning of the season -- makes a game of this one and may be juuuust enough to push Michigan over the top. The Wolverines win the coin toss here, taking home a 32-30 victory with 50.5% likelihood.
Eddie: There was a time in the recent past when we were arguing that (64) Michigan deserved to play Ohio State in the mythical national championship game instead of Florida.  Now, we're worried about if the winningest program in NCAA history can beat (44) UConn, a team from a disrespected conference with fewer than ten years of D-IA experience.  Michigan suffers on both sides of the ball, yielding 17.8 PPH on defense compared to UConn's 13.5 PPH while only scoring 13.7 PPH versus 18.2 PPH.  Significant improvement on either side of the ball will help Michigan win this one, provided UConn holds steady.  Home field advantage keeps it close, but RBA is 66.5% confident that UConn begins the Rich Rodriguez death march with a tight 28-27 victory.

Bowling Green Falcons at Troy Trojans.

Eddie:  Both (82) Troy and (83) Bowling Green are middling schools with spread offenses.  Bowling Green is consistently weak on defense, surrendering 16.4 PPH.  Troy's offense has a knack for jumping all over weak defenses like the Falcons at 17.8 PPH.  RBA says Troy wins 31-28, but this game is going to be really tight at 50.4% confidence because only 0.4% separate their strength ratings over the course of ten seasons.  If I were a betting man, I'd expect this to be one of those picks that goes the other way because Troy lost QB Levi Brown to graduation, and RBA can't possibly know that.
Justin: From the lofty heights of the BCS conferences we drill down into this MAC-Sun Belt slugfest between the (78) Falcons and the (71) Trojans. The name of the game this early in the year is home field advantage, and the Trojans are the benefactors here. What might otherwise be a close game between two second-tier teams becomes a bit of a romp for Troy, thanks to the Trojans' 1.5 PPH advantage on the defensive side. But don't think the talent gap between the first two games and this game is too large; the Trojans posted offensive and defensive efficiencies that were within 0.5 PPH of the Wolverines. In the end, Troy wins 35-29.

Week 1: Thursday and Friday predictions

Tonight is the kickoff of the college football season in earnest. There are eight games between D-1A teams tonight and tomorrow. Justin's predictions are in blue, Eddie's are in yellow. Our rankings and predictions are unchanged since the end of last year -- we don't attempt to project year-to-year changes based on number of starters returning or other similar metrics -- so take these predictions with a small grain of salt.

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(96)	UAB	39	(102)	FL-Atlantic	33	70.1	(92)	UAB	38	(107)	FL-Atlantic	24	67.5
(91)	Hawaii	23	(10)	USC	34	87.5	(95)	Hawaii	13	(5)	USC	45	96.8
(85)	Iowa St.	29	(71)	Northern Ill.	28	53.0	(69)	Iowa St.	31	(89)	Northern Ill.	20	64.1
(74)	Middle Tenn.	30	(69)	Minnesota	28	59.7	(84)	Middle Tenn.	24	(61)	Minnesota	27	64.5
(4)	Ohio St.	36	(84)	Marshall	18	96.8	(7)	Ohio St.	41	(91)	Marshall	6	95.5
(44)	South Carolina	31	(58)	Southern Miss.	26	70.7	(45)	South Carolina	31	(63)	Southern Miss.	20	65.9
(16)	Utah	33	(18)	Pittsburgh	29	67.3	(30)	Utah	28	(27)	Pittsburgh	27	52.1
(99)	Toledo	29	(38)	Arizona	37	76.3	(98)	Toledo	17	(16)	Arizona	45	92.8

Kicking Off the 2010-2011 Season

We're back!

It's been a long offseason, but we've been busy behind the scenes cleaning up our algorithms, holding daily brainstorming sessions inside the top-secret TFG Batcave, and (of course) trash-talking each other about the upcoming year. Actually mainly it's Eddie trash-talking me or trying to impart some sense of what the coming season has to offer, and me smiling and nodding along pretending that I understand what he's talking about (if anyone can explain to me what a 'Razorback' is, please e-mail me).

Eddie's RBA has improved by leaps and bounds during the offseason, leaving me to hunt for ways to add improvements to my TFG system. After his latest rounds of adjustments I hold a 0.4% lead over him in 10-year winning percentage. To put that in perspective, there are roughly 50-ish college football games each week; under his new system, once every five weeks I get one right that he misses. In response I've been burning the midnight oil to put some distance between myself and him, accuracy-wise.

Over the next few days we'll discuss some crazy predictions for the coming year, how we've updated our respective systems, where we still have room for improvement, and the season-opening rankings and predictions (hint: as far as our computers know, it's January 9th, 2010, and last year's undefeated Boise State is about to take on recent bowl winner Virginia Tech).

Stay tuned, and keep watching this space.