#32: Insight Bowl
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers (39.6 CQR)
Eddie: Neither (69) Iowa State or (64) Minnesota is particularly good offensively, especially since Eric Decker went down with an injury. However, Minnesota plays relatively consistent defense. Iowa State forces more turnovers, so they can make this a game. RBA favors Minnesota, 27-24, but with a virtual coin flip at 52.5% confidence.
Justin: Both (68) Minnesota and (82) Iowa State sport similar defensive efficiencies (17.0 and 17.8 PPH, respectively) but Minnesota has a 2.3 PPH edge on the offensive end and has played a the 12-strongest schedule in the Bowl Division. In an odd statistical convergence, TFG also favors Minnesota 27-24, but with a slightly higher confidence level.
#31: Humanitarian Bowl
Bowling Green vs. Idaho Vandals (40.4 CQR)
Justin: Expect this game to be the very definition of a shootout. (77) Bowling Green might play lackluster defense by allowing 19.0 PPH, but the 86th-ranked Vandals are tied for having the 8th worse defensive efficiency by allowing 25.6 PPH. They make up for it by having a slightly better offense than Bowling Green, but that's not saying much. If you want to know the importance of a good defense, all you have to do is look at Idaho and Nebraska; both have identical offensive efficiencies (18.7) but Nebraska only allows 10.4 PPH. This should be a fast and furious shootout, with Bowling Green taking the victory, 38-31.
Eddie: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, well, you get the picture. After being the idiot for picking Idaho a few weeks back, RBA decides to go the other way and pick (55) Bowling Green over (71) Idaho because they play better defense and turn the ball over 0.85 times fewer per game. Expected score is 38-31 with 52.5% confidence.
#30: Little Caesar's Bowl
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Ohio Bobcats (40.6 CQR)
Eddie: (73) Marshall has a serious drop-off against above-average opponents, whereas (35) Ohio holds their own against teams up until 0.620 winning percentages. Not only that, Ohio is more opportunistic on defense, averaging 2.75 takeaways per game. RBA says Ohio over Marshall, 24-17, with 62.8% confidence.
Justin: Although (70) Ohio and (84) Marshall are only separated by 14 spots in the standings, the difference in their expected winning percentage is quite staggering (0.451 to 0.310); this is what happens when Ohio has a nearly 2.0 PPH advantage on both sides of the ball. Marshall is really going to need to step it up to make up for that gap, but TFG isn't optimistic, pegging Ohio as nearly 2-to-1 favorites to take home the 27-24 victory.
Summary:
| Home |
Visitors |
Odds |
Home |
Visitors |
Odds |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (82) | Iowa St. | 24 |
(68) | Minnesota | 27 |
63.5 |
(69) | Iowa St. | 24 |
(64) | Minnesota | 27 |
52.5 |
| (77) | Bowling Green | 38 |
(86) | Idaho | 31 |
60.7 |
(55) | Bowling Green | 38 |
(71) | Idaho | 31 |
52.5 |
| (84) | Marshall | 24 |
(70) | Ohio | 27 |
64.7 |
(73) | Marshall | 17 |
(35) | Ohio | 24 |
62.8 |
