Saturday, September 8, 2012

Week 2: Saturday Matchups

With Justin temporarily absent, I'll present my picks and leave the placeholders for his picks.

Game of the Week
Florida Gators at Texas A&M Aggies
GUGS Score: 58.8


Justin


Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
19 Texas A&M 0.759 0.603 22 22.8 39 14.4 7 184.1 1
21 Florida 0.746 0.609 17 23.6 34 15.3 12 158.5 99


Texas A&M 34, Florida 30 (64.9%); 171 plays


Eddie


Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
19 Texas A&M 0.860 0.556 10 22.2 15 12.1 25 172.7 11
16 Florida 0.883 0.559 7 16.8 55 10.1 8 161.4 110


People act like (19) Texas A&M was the flop of the 2011 season and undeserving of an invite to the SEC.  Those same people clearly don't pay attention to their schedule, which included Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Baylor, Kansas State, and Oklahoma.  The Aggies weren't terribly consistent, but they were certainly above average with a 32.8 +/- 21.3 PPH offense and 1.5 +/- 21.2 PPH defense.  (16) Florida has looked terrible offensively with a 24.8 +/- 15.9 PPH.  Their 0.1 +/- 20.0 PPH defense is the only thing keeping them in the top 25.  The game should be relatively close, but home field advantage inducts the Aggies into the SEC with a 28-24 win with 68.5% confidence.



Shootout of the Week
Air Force Falcons at Michigan Wolverines
GUGS Score: 41.6


Eddie


Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
21 Michigan 0.851 0.544 24 22.4 13 12.0 24 167.5 50
52 Air Force 0.596 0.472 87 19.3 28 17.3 73 164.2 93


Still stinging from their Alabama beatdown, (21) Michigan hosts (52) Air Force.  The triple option is surprisingly effective against unprepared defenses, and Michigan plays like an unprepared defense with 0.0 +/- 27.7 PPH efficiency.  The problem is that Air Force is no better at 7.0 +/- 20.6 PPH.  The real difference is offensive efficiency.  Denard Robinson should run free in the Air Force secondary, leading a 34.2 +/- 23.6 PPH offense against a comparatively weak 26.4 +/- 14.2 PPH Falcon offense.  Expect lots of scoring and a 41-21 Michigan victory with 77.4% confidence.


Justin


Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
17 Michigan 0.790 0.710 1 32.3 6 19.1 45 156.1 108
49 Air Force 0.572 0.412 94 24.3 28 21.6 68 162.4 68


Michigan 45, Air Force 32 (82.9%); 159 plays



Coin Toss Game of the Week
Vanderbilt Commodores at Northwestern Wildcats
GUGS Score: 45.4


Justin


Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
66 Northwestern 0.475 0.510 63 21.9 50 22.8 76 171.5 22
58 Vanderbilt 0.542 0.648 8 19.4 73 18.1 36 160.2 85


Northwestern 34, Vanderbilt 33 (57.0%); 165 plays


Eddie


Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
63 Northwestern 0.500 0.511 63 17.3 46 17.4 75 176.7 2
27 Vanderbilt 0.807 0.550 14 18.8 33 11.1 14 161.5 107


RBA loves (27) Vanderbilt.  They nearly beat Arkansas last year and South Carolina this year.  The Commodores are tough on defense to the tune of 2.9 +/- 16.6 PPH.  Offensive inconsistency keeps them out of the top 25, but 33.0 +/- 28.4 PPH is comparable to Michigan.  (63) Northwestern isn't that bad, but their 10.0 +/- 14.8 PPH defense is going to have their hands full.  RBA says Vandy wins, 31-24, with 74.2% confidence.



SystemExpected
W - L
Expected
% Correct
RBA 33.66 -  9.34 78.28%
TFG 34.11 -  8.89 79.32%