Week 14: Saturday Recap

Week 14
System	Expected		Actual
	W - L	Win %	W - L	Win %
RBA	14.9 -   6.1	71.1	18 -   3	85.7
TFG	15.2 -   5.8	72.6	17 -   4	81.0

Game of the Week

Oklahoma State Cowboys 44, Oklahoma Sooners 10; 181 plays

Justin

(5) Oklahoma 38, (12) Oklahoma St. 35 (63.7%); 180 plays

The stories of this game were turnovers and field position. Oklahoma State scored 44 points -- 5 touchdowns and 3 field goals -- off of drives of 40, 43, 68 and 1 yard (for touchdowns) and 57, 60, and 92 (for field goals). Throw in a touchdown directly off a turnover and the Sooners turned what could have/should have been a coin toss into a romp for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys managed 44 points in 181 plays for an offensive efficiency of 24.3 PPH against one of the best defenses in FBS. Oklahoma State is peaking at the right time, but it might be too late to make a serious case for the title game.

Eddie

(6) Oklahoma St. 31, (5) Oklahoma 28 (54.7%); 172 plays

Okay, nobody saw 44-10 coming. I'll take a little credit for RBA picking the winner, but otherwise, this game was very far from the predictions. Justin hit the nail on the head; this game was all about field position and turnovers.

Coin Toss Record: TFG 6, RBA 6.

Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game

Wisconsin Badgers 42, Michigan State Spartans 39; 154 plays

Eddie

(4) Wisconsin 31, (18) Michigan St. 24 (65.6%); 164 plays

"You keep saying that word. I don't think it means what you think it means." Maybe it's just Wisconsin, but Michigan State shouldn't be performing this well offensively. The Spartans exceeded offensive expectations for the second time against the Badgers and nearly won this game.

Justin

(3) Wisconsin 38, (15) Michigan St. 30 (68.0%); 160 plays

Regardless of the outcome, you can't say that Michigan State doesn't have a flair for the dramatic. Unlike the last time these teams met, Michigan State racked up more yards, more first downs, and (crucially) more turnovers. Unfortunately for the Spartans, this didn't translate to an even larger victory. Even up by only a touchdown, Wisconsin seemed to have this one locked up going into the second quarter (TFG had the Badgers as 81% likely to win just before the Spartans pulled off their ballet lateral play). By the time the second quarter ended, though, it was a dead-even coin toss. In the end, though, Wisconsin just had a bit more offense than Michigan State could handle.

Unstoppable Force 9, Immovable Object 3

Shootout of the Week

Southern Miss Golden Eagles 49, Houston Cougars 28; 205 plays

Justin

(23) Houston 39, (43) Southern Miss. 35 (63.2%); 177 plays

Can I get an "I told you so"? We're just lucky that Houston got exposed here instead of in a BCS bowl. Houston's offense was never quite as ferocious as some claimed, but here it was exposed for all to see. However even down 28-21 with 3:30 to play in the third quarter, the Cougars had about a 1-in-3 shot to win. Before the end of the quarter, though, they surrendered 14 points and their odds dropped to 1-in-12. Each team tacked on a meaningless touchdown to get our final score. Houston's loss, though, clears the way for TCU or USM, or some other similarly worthy non-BCS school to claim an at-large bid (thanks, hapless Big East!).

Eddie

(24) Houston 31, (19) Southern Miss. 28 (52.0%); 171 plays

You could argue that Southern Miss has been overrated by RBA for most of the season, but it's been right about Houston. The Cougars' offensive inconsistency showed up at the worst possible time to the tune of 13.7 PPH. USM just kept scoring and scoring, and Houston kept playing fast. When you run 205 plays, small differences in efficiency turn into huge differences on the scoreboard. At 20.3 PPH, the Golden Eagles should have hung 42 on the Cougars, so they only slightly exceeded expectations. RBA missed the pick, but the analysis was pretty accurate.

2011 - 2012 Season
System	Expected		Actual
	W - L	Win %	W - L	Win %
TFG	501.6 - 176.4	74.0	499 - 179	73.6
RBA	498.5 - 179.5	73.5	492 - 186	72.6

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Week 14: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Games for 2011-12-03

Last updated: Wed Aug 15 22:13:50 2012

Week 14: Saturday Predictions

67 Arkansas St. 35 100 Troy 29

71 Arkansas St. 34 100 Troy 21

45 Baylor 33  24 Texas 36

45 Baylor 28  22 Texas 35

4 Boise St. 49 120 New Mexico 17

8 Boise St. 63 115 New Mexico 6

40 Cincinnati 33  56 Connecticut 31

40 Cincinnati 31  70 Connecticut 20

35 Clemson 28   9 Virginia Tech 34

32 Clemson 27  20 Virginia Tech 28

110 Colorado St. 29  90 Wyoming 35

111 Colorado St. 24  83 Wyoming 31

117 FL-Atlantic 28  97 LA-Monroe 37

118 FL-Atlantic 21  97 LA-Monroe 31

17 Georgia 29   2 LSU 39

12 Georgia 20   2 LSU 28

74 Hawaii 30  39 BYU 36

76 Hawaii 31  51 BYU 32

23 Houston 39  43 Southern Miss. 35

24 Houston 31  19 Southern Miss. 28

32 Kansas St. 37  70 Iowa St. 30

28 Kansas St. 38  74 Iowa St. 21

15 Michigan St. 30   3 Wisconsin 38

18 Michigan St. 24   4 Wisconsin 31

51 Nevada 38 107 Idaho 28

55 Nevada 41 107 Idaho 14

115 New Mexico St. 32  79 Utah St. 42

104 New Mexico St. 27  79 Utah St. 35

106 North Texas 35 109 Middle Tenn. 33

106 North Texas 31 108 Middle Tenn. 27

12 Oklahoma St. 35   5 Oklahoma 38

6 Oklahoma St. 31   5 Oklahoma 28

29 Pittsburgh 34  80 Syracuse 27

33 Pittsburgh 31  84 Syracuse 20

59 SDSU 38  86 Fresno St. 32

57 SDSU 35  85 Fresno St. 24

8 TCU 47 114 UNLV 23

14 TCU 49 119 UNLV 14

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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Week 14: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week / Coin Toss Game of the Week

Oklahoma Sooners at Oklahoma State Cowboys

GUGS Score: 81.0

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
12	Oklahoma St.	0.800	0.536	55	27.7	9	15.9	27	181.2	4
5	Oklahoma	0.875	0.571	41	26.6	13	12.2	4	179.5	6

The raw numbers suggest this is the #2 offense (OSU) against the #8 offense (OU) and the #29 defense (OU) against the #64 defense (OSU). And this, ladies and gentlemen, is why tempo-free stats are important. Neither offense is quite as good as it would seem, but neither defense is anywhere as bad as the raw, unadjusted numbers suggest. What TFG can tell you, though, is that this will be one of the fastest, highest-scoring games this year. Both teams like to get out and run, but the Sooners have a 1.1 PPH advantage on offense and a 3.7 PPH advantage on defense. In a high-paced game like this those slight differences can really become significant. TFG says the Sooners take this by a field goal after a furious track meet. Oklahoma 38, Oklahoma St. 35 (63.7%); 180 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
6	Oklahoma St.	0.966	0.548	16	26.8	3	14.0	46	173.3	7
5	Oklahoma	0.974	0.542	26	23.5	10	10.0	7	171.6	14

If nothing else, this will certainly be an exciting game. (6) Oklahoma State has an incredible offense at 36.1 +/- 18.5 PPH and a defense that is better and more consistent than you'd think at 13.2 +/- 1.6 PPH. They give up a ton of points mainly because they play so fast. Lord knows what will happen when they get together with fellow speedsters, (5) Oklahoma. The Sooners are slightly less efficient but slightly more consistent offensively at 29.2 +/- 11.4 PPH. Contrary to popular belief, they also play pretty good defense (4.7 +/- 10.8 PPH). Again, they're penalized by many people for how fast they play. RBA says Oklahoma State finishes their (nearly) dream season with a 31-28 Bedlam victory with 54.7% confidence. I make no such prediction about whether they'll jump Alabama in the BCS.

Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game

Wisconsin Badgers vs Michigan State Spartans

GUGS Score: 66.9

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
18	Michigan St.	0.874	0.541	29	20.0	25	10.8	15	167.1	52
4	Wisconsin	0.975	0.533	42	28.4	1	10.8	16	161.6	107

Tell me if you've heard this one before: Michigan State has a tendency to lose its offense in big games. Well, it's still true. (18) Michigan State still struggles against top flight competition with their 31.2 +/- 22.4 PPH offense. The difference this time is that RBA has decided that (4) Wisconsin has the same problem (39.1 +/- 21.4). Unfortunately for the Spartans, that's over a touchdown per hundred plays better. Furthermore, the Badgers have an equivalent defense this time around at 4.3 +/- 13.0 PPH versus the Spartans' 3.0 +/- 15.6 PPH. Sure, Michigan State won this game in October, but even the most diehard Spartan fan has to admit that the hail mary reception was lucky. Despite that victory, RBA still picks Wisconsin, 31-24, with 65.6% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
15	Michigan St.	0.793	0.564	47	22.9	27	13.4	6	163.4	81
3	Wisconsin	0.890	0.514	64	34.6	1	15.0	23	157.5	111

The strange thing is that this matchup has gotten even more lopsided on paper than the last time we ran it. In that case the prediction was Wisconsin 34, Michigan State 30. Remove the freak Hail Mary, and you've got something pretty close to the final score. Who here thinks the Spartans can pull that off twice? Me neither. Another piece of bad news for Michigan State is that this isn't going to be in East Lansing. Home field advantage is always a big boost, especially early in the season. Pair a neutral field with a reinvigorated Badger offense, and you've got Wisconsin by 8 this time. Wisconsin 38, Michigan St. 30 (68.0%); 160 plays.

Shootout of the Week

Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Houston Cougars

GUGS Score: 62.1

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
23	Houston	0.721	0.335	111	26.7	12	18.2	53	180.0	5
43	Southern Miss.	0.601	0.336	110	21.4	37	18.2	51	175.6	13

The current line on this game is Houston by two touchdowns. That may be optimistic, or Houston may just be this year's version of 2010 Auburn, who were barely favored in their title game last year. The Cougars are definitely picking up steam and doing better against quality opponents. Will it be enough to get past Southern Miss? TFG isn't as positive on the Golden Eagles as RBA is, mainly because it thinks their defense is a bit dodgy. Honestly, right now that's probably the worst thing to be going wrong for Southern Miss right now, as Houston really starts firing on all cylinders on offense. Their sheer pace gives them a boost in the eyes of the human pollsters -- Houston shouldn't be anywhere within spitting distance of the top 10 right now -- but they're starting to find more efficient offense now. TFG says it'll be enough in a shootout of a game. Houston 39, Southern Miss. 35 (63.2%); 177 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
24	Houston	0.826	0.471	85	22.9	12	13.7	39	175.2	4
19	Southern Miss.	0.870	0.482	76	20.9	22	15.3	57	168.6	36

Stewart Mandel thinks that Houston will beat Southern Miss by four touchdowns. RBA doesn't think so. Sure, we've mocked (24) Houston this season, but they're finally hitting their stride. Although you'd think that they consistently ring up points, you'd be wrong. Adjusted for competition, the Cougars' 38.6 +/- 31.3 PPH is the most inconsistent offense in the country. In contrast, the (19) Golden Eagles' offense is the most consistent at 20.3 +/- 1.3 PPH. In another statistical WTF, Houston actually has the most consistent defense in the country: 13.2 +/- 0.9 PPH. (No, Southern Miss isn't the least consistent defense. That'd be UTEP at +/- 34.0 PPH, followed by UCLA at 26.0 PPH.) For the first time all season, RBA picks Houston to beat Southern Miss, 31-28, but at only 52.0% confidence. If the Cougar offense brings it, then this game could get out of hand quickly, but if they take a quarter off, Southern Miss is going to beat them.

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
TFG	13.93 -  5.07	73.32%
RBA	13.78 -  5.22	72.54%

Week 14: Friday Predictions

55 Northern Ill. 38  69 Ohio 35

64 Northern Ill. 34  65 Ohio 31

75 UCLA 26   7 Oregon 41

63 UCLA 17   3 Oregon 45

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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Week 14 RBA Projections: SEC,Pac-12,Sun Belt,WAC

Projected conference champions

• Pac-12 North: Oregon
• Pac-12 South: USC
• SEC East: Georgia
• SEC West: LSU
• Sun Belt: Arkansas St.
• WAC: LA Tech

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 TFG Projections: SEC,Pac-12,Sun Belt,WAC

Projected conference champions

• Pac-12 North: Oregon
• Pac-12 South: USC
• SEC East: Georgia
• SEC West: LSU
• Sun Belt: Arkansas St.
• WAC: LA Tech

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 TFG Projections: Big Ten,Big XII,MAC,MWC

Projected conference champions

• Big Ten Leaders: Wisconsin
• Big Ten Legends: Michigan St.
• Big XII: Oklahoma
• MAC East: Ohio
• MAC West: Northern Ill.
• MWC: TCU

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14: Thursday Predictions

50 South Florida 29  26 West Virginia 33

49 South Florida 24  34 West Virginia 25

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter @TFGridiron

Week 14 RBA Projections: Big Ten,Big XII,MAC,MWC

Projected conference champions

• Big Ten Leaders: Wisconsin
• Big Ten Legends: Michigan St.
• Big XII: Oklahoma St.
• MAC East: Ohio
• MAC West: Northern Ill.
• MWC: TCU

Full projected conference standings after the jump.