Saturday, May 7, 2016

Formula One: Elo Ratings, Post-Russian Grand Prix

Lewis Hamilton continues to have bad luck, Sebastian Vettel's is even worse, and Nico Rosberg just keeps going. And in news from Thursday night, it appears that Kvyat is out and Verstappen is in at Red Bull, following Kvyat's double collision with Vettel during the opening lap at Sochi. The Russian driver and the teenager are swapping places for the rest of the season, with Kvyat relegated back down to the Toro Rosso team for the final 17 races.

Oops.
Source: Daily Mail
What does Elo have to say about this swap? Is Red Bull making the right choice in promoting Verstappen to the A-team?

Rank+/-Driver TeamRating+/-
1 -- RosbergMercedes 1740 +25
2 -- VettelFerrari 1505 +34
3 -- RaikkonenFerrari 1453 +24
4 +1 HamiltonMercedes 1334 -1
5 +3 BottasWilliams 1306 +119
6 +1 MassaWilliams 1279 +68
7 -3 RicciardoRed Bull 1278 -119
8 +1 VerstappenToro Rosso 1162 +3
9 +2 PerezForce India 1091 +71
10 -4 KvyatRed Bull 1089 -135
11 -1 Sainz Jr.Toro Rosso 1051 -78
12 +1 AlonsoMcLaren 1011 +81
13 -1 HulkenbergForce India 993 -13
14 -- ButtonMcLaren 970 +42
15 -- GrosjeanHaas 963 +41
16 -- VandoorneMcLaren 901 --
17 +2 MagnussenRenault 896 +87
18 -1 GutierrezHaas 754 -65
19 -1 EricssonSauber 728 -90
20 +2 PalmerRenault 711 +38
21 -1 NasrSauber 663 -31
22 -1 WehrleinManor 614 -73
23 -- HaryantoManor 570 -24

While the Driver's Championship standings have Kvyat in eighth with 21 points and Verstappen in 10th with 13 points, Elo has those positions reversed. Even though the teenager failed to score any points, it was due to an engine failure. Kvyat, however, fell four spots in the ratings due to his 15th-place finish, sandwiched between the two Saubers. The Red Bull team had the worst outing of the weekend, dropping a total of 254 points, worse than even Sauber (-121 points) or Manor (-97 points).

RankTeamAvg. Rating
1Mercedes1537
2Ferrari1479
3Williams1293
4Red Bull1183
5Toro Rosso1107
6Force India1042
7McLaren961
8Haas859
9Renault804
10Sauber694
11Manor592

Looking at the average Elo rating of drivers in each team, we see that Kvyat's performance have dropped the senior Red Bull team to within a handful of points of the junior team, and further back from Williams. Even though Red Bull currently leads Williams in the points, 57-51, Elo has Sir Frank's squad as the third-best team on the grid. Bolstered by a 4-5 finish in Russia, it's unlikely that Red Bull will keep their third-place spot in the Constructor's Championship for long.

Hamilton continues to be plagued by reliability issues, which are largely responsible for his current fourth-place standing in the ratings. His last-place start on the grid in China alone cost him 315 points, while his 10th place start in Russia dropped him 64 points. While it's likely that his 7th place finish in China would've cost him a spot or two in the ratings, reliability issues beyond his control have pushed him further down in the ratings than any on-track performance.

Meanwhile, everything continues to come up Rosberg. His rating of 1740 is his third-highest post-race rating ever, only 17 points behind the 2014 United States Grand Prix, and 50 points behind the 2014 Brazilian Grand Prix.

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