Saturday, December 1, 2012

Week 14: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week
Wisconsin Badgers vs Nebraska Cornhuskers


Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
17 Nebraska 0.770 0.616 18 26.1 22 16.1 20 168.0 47
12 Wisconsin 0.806 0.553 42 30.1 5 17.1 27 156.0 114

Where's the SEC title game? GUGS shades towards close games, and TFG thinks the Dawgs are going to get blown out (no offense, Georgia fans). This, however, should be closer. The last time they played this year it was at Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers eeked out a 3-point victory; that kind of loss seems to be Wisconsin's MO this year, with four losses by exactly a field goal (their other loss was to Ohio State by a touchdown). Wisconsin's lost a lot of offense from last year, but has still been (opponent-and-pace-adjusted) very efficient. Nebraska hasn't been a slouch, either, and with both defenses in the "good" but not "outstanding" category, this looks to be a close, relatively high-scoring affair between two top-20 teams. The Badgers will try and slow things down, while the Huskers will pick up the pace a bit. It'll be a good game with no clear favorite, but since Nebraska doesn't have home field advantage this time, look for the Badgers to eek out a close win in the end. The predicted margin is, fittingly, a field goal. Wisconsin 37, Nebraska 34 (55.5%); 161 plays.


Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
19 Nebraska 0.863 0.533 45 18.7 35 11.5 23 167.1 65
16 Wisconsin 0.882 0.531 47 20.8 22 11.0 16 161.6 112

What?  No Alabama-Georgia?  If you must know, it's because RBA doesn't think that game is going to be very competitive (31-17, Alabama).  On the other hand, Nebraska-Wisconsin should be a pretty good game, even if not matching two teams in the BCS top three.  The formerly unstoppable Badger offense has proven itself inconsistent in 2012, notching a 32.6 +/- 23.6 PPH performance.  Their defense isn't Alabama or Notre Dame, but a 4.8 +/- 12.4 PPH very respectable.  The Huskers sport a similarly effective defense at 3.6 +/- 16.0 PPH.  The key in this game is the Nebraska offensive consistency.  They haven't always been flashy, but the Cornhuskers 21.9 +/- 6.3 PPH demonstrates a predictability that RBA likes.  RBA says that Nebraska wins the Big Ten, 28-24, with 58.8% confidence.

Coin Toss Game of the Week
UCF Knights at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
GUGS Score: 58.5


Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
50 Tulsa 0.609 0.466 92 16.1 66 14.1 43 171.9 16
36 UCF 0.713 0.461 97 18.4 38 14.1 40 163.5 104

For what it's worth, history is on my side.  Tulsa beat UCF three weeks ago, 23-21.  UCF's offense simply isn't consistent.  A 30.7 +/- 24.6 PPH performance will only look good because Tulsa isn't very good on defense at 11.2 +/- 5.8 PPH.  The only reason why Tulsa will win this game is because UCF's 10.0 +/- 8.3 PPH defense is even worse.  It will be ugly, but expect a 27-24 Tulsa victory with 54.4% confidence.


Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
44 Tulsa 0.598 0.421 81 20.0 70 17.1 28 178.3 10
33 UCF 0.636 0.354 114 24.9 27 19.9 50 156.9 108

I'm not sure a two-point victory at home is really having history on your side, but whatever. This game is a tale of two teams with opposing strengths and weaknesses: Tulsa has no offense, but a relatively solid D, while UCF has a good offense, but a middling defense. These teams are also on opposite ends of the tempo spectrum; Tulsa will want to go-go-go, while UCF is a more patient team. This will be close, but TFG thinks the Knights will get revenge for their loss a few weeks ago. UCF 35, Tulsa 33 (54.0%); 167 plays.

W - L
% Correct
RBA 10.68 -  4.32 71.17%
TFG 10.65 -  4.35 71.03%