Monday, January 2, 2012

2011 - 2012 Bowl Previews: Part VII


Today is Part VII of our 2011 - 2012 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • Allstate Sugar Bowl
    Michigan Wolverines vs Virginia Tech Hokies
  • Outback Bowl
    Georgia Bulldogs vs Michigan State Spartans
  • Allstate BCS National Championship Game
    Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers
  • Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
    Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Stanford Cardinal
  • Rose Bowl Game presented by Visio
    Oregon Ducks vs Wisconsin Badgers
Full previews after the jump ....

5. Allstate Sugar Bowl

Tuesday, January 3 at 8:30 PM

Michigan Wolverines (10 - 2; 6 - 2 Big Ten)
vs
Virginia Tech Hokies (10 - 2; 7 - 2 ACC)
GUGS Score: 71.9

Eddie

Michigan Wolverines
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.886 17 0.542 29 22.8 12 12.0 26 167.8 44
Virginia Tech Hokies
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.817 23 0.526 58 17.7 41 11.2 15 158.2 118

RBA doesn't consider either of these teams to be BCS quality teams. (17) Michigan managed to avoid a certain loss against (4) Wisconsin, lost to (19) Michigan State and (32) Iowa, and were really lucky to beat (20) Notre Dame. On the other side of the ball (23) Virginia Tech's signature win is the... (26) Miami Hurricanes? Quit boring everyone! This game may be a good game to watch, but it's criminal that (8) Boise State has to sit at home and watch it play out. There's little doubt that Michigan has improved throughout 2011, especially on defense. At 0.0 +/- 24.5 PPH, they're still prone to surrendering points to stronger teams, but the good news is that Virginia Tech isn't a great team at 0.784 strength and a 22.2 +/- 9.1 PPH offense. The most surprising statistic is that RBA thinks Virginia Tech's 0.0 +/- 26.6 PPH defense is actually worse than Michigan's. With advantages on offense and defense, expect Michigan to run away late, 34-24, with 54.7% probability.

Justin

Michigan Wolverines
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.798 12 0.567 45 28.7 8 16.6 34 160.4 100
Virginia Tech Hokies
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.779 16 0.515 64 23.3 25 14.1 9 158.8 106

Oh look, it's another matchup determined by money instead of the quality of the teams. Technically this could have been something more interesting -- at least I assume it could have been, since the rules governing BCS bowl selection are a bit dense -- but Arkansas-Boise State? Yes, please. Instead we get BCS#11 Virginia Tech and BCS#13 Michigan in the Sugar Bowl. This won't be a bad game, per se, but oh for what could have been. This will be a game with two distinctly different feels; Michigan's offense and Tech's defense are each top-10, whereas the Wolverine defense and the Hokie offense are decidedly second-tier. This is going to come down to which side is able to make better plays when Michigan is on offense. This will be a slow game but likely to be moderately high-scoring. TFG gives the slightest of edges to Michigan, though. Michigan 34, Virginia Tech 31 (52.8%); 159 plays.


Michigan Wolverines Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/03  67 /  88 Western Michigan 10 at  62 /  54 Michigan 34 110  67.8% /  81.3%
2011/09/10  28 /  30 Notre Dame 31 at  39 /  45 Michigan 35 151  54.9% /  34.7%
2011/09/17 116 / 117 Eastern Michigan 3 at  37 /  43 Michigan 31 140  96.3% /  94.1%
2011/09/24  59 /  56 SDSU 7 at  31 /  39 Michigan 28 162  75.8% /  58.7%
2011/10/01  79 /  94 Minnesota 0 at  29 /  33 Michigan 58 149  86.3% /  79.0%
2011/10/08  12 /  25 Michigan 42 at  68 /  79 Northwestern 24 169  77.0% /  77.0%
2011/10/15  14 /  26 Michigan 14 at  21 /  20 Michigan St. 28 158  42.8% /  58.8%
2011/10/29  69 /  70 Purdue 14 at  18 /  26 Michigan 36 150  86.9% /  83.7%
2011/11/05  18 /  28 Michigan 16 at  38 /  27 Iowa 24 153  62.9% /  39.7%
2011/11/12  21 /  28 Michigan 31 at  46 /  45 Illinois 14 157  63.4% /  69.4%
2011/11/19  17 /  25 Nebraska 17 at  16 /  21 Michigan 45 163  50.5% /  47.0%
2011/11/26  17 /  23 Ohio St. 34 at  12 /  15 Michigan 40 146  54.8% /  53.4%
2012/01/03  16 /  23 Virginia Tech -- vs  12 /  17 Michigan -- --  52.8% /  54.7%


Virginia Tech Hokies Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/10   9 /  11 Virginia Tech 17 at  72 /  78 East Carolina 10 150  83.3% /  92.3%
2011/09/17  85 /  84 Arkansas St. 7 at  11 /  10 Virginia Tech 26 163  93.5% /  94.6%
2011/09/24  11 /  11 Virginia Tech 30 at  99 / 103 Marshall 10 157  92.2% /  91.5%
2011/10/01  23 /  10 Clemson 23 at  11 /  19 Virginia Tech 3 162  73.2% /  62.4%
2011/10/08  29 /  66 Miami-FL 35 at  11 /  24 Virginia Tech 38 146  69.5% /  75.4%
2011/10/15  13 /  23 Virginia Tech 38 at  71 /  81 Wake Forest 17 167  78.7% /  82.8%
2011/10/22  88 /  91 Boston College 14 at  12 /  25 Virginia Tech 30 158  93.2% /  86.4%
2011/10/29  13 /  25 Virginia Tech 14 at  81 /  73 Duke 10 162  81.9% /  79.9%
2011/11/10  12 /  23 Virginia Tech 37 at  37 /  40 Georgia Tech 26 147  64.2% /  63.7%
2011/11/17  43 /  48 North Carolina 21 at  13 /  23 Virginia Tech 24 157  70.1% /  59.9%
2011/11/26  14 /  20 Virginia Tech 38 at  66 /  69 Virginia 0 151  80.1% /  75.9%
2011/12/03   9 /  23 Virginia Tech 10 vs  35 /  29 Clemson 38 175  72.1% /  61.5%
2012/01/03  16 /  23 Virginia Tech -- vs  12 /  17 Michigan -- --  47.2% /  45.3%


4. Outback Bowl

Monday, January 2 at 1:00 PM

Georgia Bulldogs (9 - 3; 7 - 2 SEC)
vs
Michigan State Spartans (9 - 3; 7 - 2 Big Ten)
GUGS Score: 76.8

Justin

Georgia Bulldogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.750 20 0.605 20 25.2 15 16.2 29 162.9 85
Michigan State Spartans
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.798 13 0.597 23 23.7 24 13.7 7 163.8 79

While Georgia may have the better losses -- LSU, Boise State, and South Carolina -- the Spartans have a slightly better overall resume according to TFG. On a side note, I'm somewhat disappointed that Georgia didn't beat LSU in the SEC title game, thereby ensuring that the SEC champion would have lost to Boise State ("WHARGGABL! Early-season slip-up! Irrelevant!"). As it is we're got a good matchup between two solid teams. If there's any weakness on the field, it'll be the Georgia defense at 16.2 PPH. The Spartans actually have a top-10 defense at 13.7 PPH -- playing Wisconsin and their top-rated offense twice and only surrendering an average of 23.9 PPH helps -- and a top-25 offense. This will be a close but not particularly quick game, and TFG gives a slight nod to the Spartans. Michigan St. 32, Georgia 31 (56.9%); 163 plays.

Eddie

Georgia Bulldogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.921 12 0.550 11 22.8 11 10.7 10 159.6 114
Michigan State Spartans
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.878 19 0.542 27 20.7 22 11.4 18 167.1 52

RBA has missed four (19) Michigan State picks and three (12) Georgia picks so far this season, so this one makes me a little nervous. The Spartans are respectable on both sides of the ball, but the Bulldogs win the offensive side of ball. Michigan State's 29.5 +/- 17.4 PPH offense is less efficient but more consistent than the Bulldogs' 36.2 +/- 26.7 PPH. Defensively, these two teams are mirror images with Georgia being negligibly more efficient at 1.7 +/- 18.1 PPH, as opposed to Michigan State's 1.7 +/- 19.3 PPH. With that in mind, RBA expects a Georgia victory, 31-24, with 58.0% confidence.


Georgia Bulldogs Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/03  23 /  24 Georgia 21 vs   2 /   3 Boise St. 35 159  15.1% /  33.2%
2011/09/10  19 /  19 South Carolina 45 at  21 /  21 Georgia 42 165  63.1% /  53.4%
2011/09/24  20 /  22 Georgia 27 at  71 /  86 Mississippi 13 169  72.6% /  77.8%
2011/10/01  44 /  35 Mississippi St. 10 at  21 /  22 Georgia 24 169  75.3% /  56.7%
2011/10/08  19 /  18 Georgia 20 at  33 /  27 Tennessee 12 152  48.7% /  46.7%
2011/10/15  17 /  16 Georgia 33 at  96 /  52 Vanderbilt 28 170  87.3% /  76.0%
2011/10/29  28 /  11 Georgia 24 vs  11 /  16 Florida 20 172  36.2% /  33.5%
2011/11/05 110 / 107 New Mexico St. 16 at  27 /  18 Georgia 63 164  94.0% /  95.5%
2011/11/12  29 /  38 Auburn 7 at  23 /  13 Georgia 45 143  59.4% /  67.7%
2011/11/19  89 /  60 Kentucky 10 at  15 /  11 Georgia 19 157  88.5% /  78.1%
2011/11/26  19 /  12 Georgia 31 at  44 /  43 Georgia Tech 17 149  68.3% /  76.0%
2011/12/03   2 /   2 LSU 42 vs  17 /  12 Georgia 10 168  17.2% /  18.5%
2012/01/02  13 /  19 Michigan St. -- vs  20 /  12 Georgia -- --  43.1% /  58.0%


Michigan State Spartans Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/10 113 / 113 FL-Atlantic 0 at  44 /  44 Michigan St. 44 140  95.1% /  94.2%
2011/09/17  25 /  45 Michigan St. 13 at  31 /  27 Notre Dame 31 164  42.7% /  46.6%
2011/09/24  95 / 106 Central Michigan 7 at  32 /  44 Michigan St. 45 151  88.9% /  82.6%
2011/10/01  25 /  34 Michigan St. 10 at   8 /  17 Ohio St. 7 156  23.9% /  31.0%
2011/10/15  14 /  26 Michigan 14 at  21 /  20 Michigan St. 28 158  57.2% /  41.2%
2011/10/22   6 /   4 Wisconsin 31 at  14 /  14 Michigan St. 37 151  42.3% /  27.3%
2011/10/29  10 /  20 Michigan St. 3 at  19 /  17 Nebraska 24 153  46.6% /  62.7%
2011/11/05  96 / 112 Minnesota 24 at  16 /  21 Michigan St. 31 163  92.3% /  95.7%
2011/11/12  22 /  25 Michigan St. 37 at  33 /  27 Iowa 21 182  57.3% /  30.5%
2011/11/19  96 / 101 Indiana 3 at  21 /  20 Michigan St. 55 164  89.0% /  90.0%
2011/11/26  13 /  18 Michigan St. 31 at  62 /  59 Northwestern 17 156  79.4% /  73.7%
2011/12/03   3 /   5 Wisconsin 42 vs  15 /  19 Michigan St. 39 154  32.0% /  34.4%
2012/01/02  13 /  19 Michigan St. -- vs  20 /  12 Georgia -- --  56.9% /  42.0%


3. Allstate BCS National Championship Game

Monday, January 9 at 8:30 PM

Alabama Crimson Tide (10 - 1; 7 - 1 SEC)
vs
LSU Tigers (12 - 0; 9 - 0 SEC)
GUGS Score: 80.3

Eddie

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 1.000 1 0.549 14 26.1 5 5.1 1 156.9 120
LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 1.000 2 0.549 17 26.8 4 6.5 2 160.2 113

Another field goal exhibition? Unlikely. (1a) LSU and (1b) Alabama are extremely powerful on both sides of the ball. This game ranks only third on the GUGS system because it should be a defensively oriented game, just not as much as you may expect. Defensively, Alabama holds a slight edge at 0.9 +/- 8.3 PPH to the Tigers' 2.8 +/- 7.5 PPH. Offensively, these two teams are even. LSU is a slightly less efficient but more consistent 35.7 +/- 17.7 PPH, as opposed to the Crimson Tide's 36.2 +/- 20.2. In the end, RBA gives the Bama defense a slight nod, 24-21, with 67.0% confidence.

Justin

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.963 1 0.621 13 33.5 2 9.1 1 152.2 120
LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.946 2 0.656 5 33.4 3 10.6 2 156.1 115

Actually the main reasons GUGS isn't hot on this game are that both of us think Alabama will win, and both think it'll be a low-scoring affair. Having said that, I should point out that GUGS like this game more than last year's most interesting game. However, it's difficult to say something new that we didn't say the first time around. I know it seems weird for the computer to keep Alabama on top after they lose to LSU at home, but if you look back at the game it's difficult to argue that the LSU was the better team for the full game. LSU had one drive of more than 40 yards; Alabama had three. LSU had six punts; Alabama had two. Alabama was a slightly underthrown pass away from a touchdown. Throw in that the Crimson Tide went 1-of-5 on 40+ yard field goals when the national average is about 55%, and you'll see that LSU was very lucky to walk out with the win. The question is whether or not Alabama can do it again but clean up their mistakes. I'd be surprised if we saw another low-scoring game, but both of these teams will have had nearly a month off before kickoff. Alabama 34, LSU 32 (59.4%); 154 plays.


Alabama Crimson Tide Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/03 100 /  97 Kent St. 7 at   3 /   2 Alabama 48 172  98.6% /  98.2%
2011/09/10   2 /   3 Alabama 27 at  33 /  37 Penn State 11 164  79.5% /  89.4%
2011/09/17 106 / 108 North Texas 0 at   1 /   2 Alabama 41 153  99.1% /  98.1%
2011/09/24  12 /  19 Arkansas 14 at   1 /   2 Alabama 38 145  86.1% /  74.7%
2011/10/01   1 /   1 Alabama 38 at   3 /  11 Florida 10 146  58.5% /  70.5%
2011/10/08  86 /  55 Vanderbilt 0 at   1 /   1 Alabama 34 140  98.5% /  94.6%
2011/10/15   1 /   1 Alabama 52 at  72 /  69 Mississippi 7 141  96.9% /  97.8%
2011/10/22  42 /  34 Tennessee 6 at   1 /   1 Alabama 37 138  96.9% /  93.0%
2011/11/05   2 /   3 LSU 9 at   1 /   1 Alabama 6 143  72.6% /  73.0%
2011/11/12   1 /   1 Alabama 24 at  39 /  30 Mississippi St. 7 155  93.7% /  95.3%
2011/11/26   1 /   1 Alabama 42 at  39 /  44 Auburn 14 136  94.7% /  96.1%
2012/01/09   2 /   2 LSU -- vs   1 /   1 Alabama -- --  59.4% /  67.0%


LSU Tigers Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/03   5 /   9 Oregon 27 vs   9 /   7 LSU 40 184  45.4% /  56.5%
2011/09/15   7 /   8 LSU 19 at  35 /  26 Mississippi St. 6 150  69.4% /  64.1%
2011/09/24   5 /   7 LSU 47 at  21 /  26 West Virginia 21 188  64.4% /  35.3%
2011/10/01  62 /  55 Kentucky 7 at   5 /   4 LSU 35 162  93.0% /  84.7%
2011/10/08   7 /  13 Florida 11 at   3 /   3 LSU 41 141  66.6% /  54.8%
2011/10/15   3 /   2 LSU 38 at  32 /  29 Tennessee 7 143  81.4% /  82.7%
2011/10/22  24 /  30 Auburn 10 at   2 /   3 LSU 45 144  88.6% /  87.0%
2011/11/05   2 /   3 LSU 9 at   1 /   1 Alabama 6 143  27.4% /  27.0%
2011/11/12  97 /  95 Western Kentucky 9 at   2 /   2 LSU 42 151  98.0% /  98.4%
2011/11/19   2 /   2 LSU 52 at  87 /  88 Mississippi 3 139  96.6% /  96.6%
2011/11/25   9 /  10 Arkansas 17 at   2 /   2 LSU 41 149  78.2% /  77.3%
2011/12/03   2 /   2 LSU 42 vs  17 /  12 Georgia 10 168  82.8% /  81.5%
2012/01/09   2 /   2 LSU -- vs   1 /   1 Alabama -- --  40.6% /  33.0%


2. Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

Monday, January 2 at 8:30 PM

Oklahoma State Cowboys (11 - 1; 8 - 1 Big XII)
vs
Stanford Cardinal (11 - 1; 8 - 1 Pac-12)
GUGS Score: 84.4

Justin

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.826 9 0.559 47 28.4 9 15.2 22 180.4 5
Stanford Cardinal
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.873 5 0.552 53 30.8 4 14.3 13 162.5 88

Technically this is the undercard matchup -- BCS #3 vs BCS #4 -- but GUGS feels it'll be more interesting than the title game, largely thanks to TFG and RBA disagreeing about who will win. Oklahoma State has a tendency to get into track meets with opponents, which doesn't speak well to their defensive efficiency. These teams aren't too different than they were two months ago when they were still undefeated and vying for a spot in the title game. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, Stanford has an advantage on both sides of the ball: 2.4 PPH on offense and 0.9 PPH on defense. Their only hope is to try and play an Oregon-type game against the Cardinal and try to wear down Stanford's defense. The numbers show they've got a 41% change against Stanford, which -- oddly enough -- was the same shot Oregon had in Palo Alto. Stanford 39, Oklahoma St. 36 (59.2%); 171 plays.

Eddie

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.975 4 0.550 12 27.0 3 13.7 39 173.3 7
Stanford Cardinal
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.958 6 0.543 23 27.5 2 10.8 12 167.0 53

Let's just say that these two teams have contrasting defensive styles. (5) Oklahoma State is consistently below average at 15.0 -/+ 2.7 PPH, but (6) Stanford never shows up against strong competition at 0.0 +/- 22.7 PPH. Offensively, this game should be a fireworks display. The Cowboys score at a 35.2 +/- 16.5 PPH clip. The Cardinal are effectively the same at 35.7 +/- 16.4 PPH. RBA says that consistency wins the defensive battle, and the pace turns that small advantage into a large scoreboard differential. Oklahoma State wins, 38-27, with 63.9% confidence.


Oklahoma State Cowboys Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/03 110 / 112 LA-Lafayette 34 at  16 /  12 Oklahoma St. 61 196  96.7% /  94.4%
2011/09/08  34 /  31 Arizona 14 at  22 /  10 Oklahoma St. 37 185  69.2% /  53.2%
2011/09/18  15 /   9 Oklahoma St. 59 at  55 /  58 Tulsa 33 202  66.1% /  70.7%
2011/09/24  17 /  10 Oklahoma St. 30 at  14 /  14 Texas A&M 29 199  38.3% /  52.7%
2011/10/08  89 /  89 Kansas 28 at  18 /  10 Oklahoma St. 70 186  91.8% /  89.9%
2011/10/15  15 /  10 Oklahoma St. 38 at  29 /  34 Texas 26 184  51.6% /  52.3%
2011/10/22  15 /   9 Oklahoma St. 45 at  22 /  27 Missouri 24 187  42.6% /  63.8%
2011/10/29  50 /  44 Baylor 24 at  12 /   8 Oklahoma St. 59 190  83.3% /  68.5%
2011/11/05  35 /  34 Kansas St. 45 at  10 /   7 Oklahoma St. 52 181  75.4% /  61.1%
2011/11/12  11 /   7 Oklahoma St. 66 at  60 /  62 Texas Tech 6 179  77.1% /  78.4%
2011/11/18   9 /   5 Oklahoma St. 31 at  77 /  81 Iowa St. 37 211  88.6% /  82.2%
2011/12/03   5 /   7 Oklahoma 10 at  12 /   4 Oklahoma St. 44 181  36.3% /  54.7%
2012/01/02   5 /   6 Stanford -- vs   9 /   4 Oklahoma St. -- --  40.8% /  63.9%


Stanford Cardinal Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/03 115 / 107 SJSU 3 at   6 /   1 Stanford 57 162  98.8% /  98.2%
2011/09/10   6 /   1 Stanford 44 at  90 /  82 Duke 14 155  91.4% /  93.3%
2011/09/17   5 /   1 Stanford 37 at  40 /  36 Arizona 10 155  76.6% /  79.2%
2011/10/01  76 /  75 UCLA 19 at   4 /   3 Stanford 45 152  95.3% /  94.7%
2011/10/08  76 /  67 Colorado 7 at   5 /   4 Stanford 48 155  95.2% /  94.9%
2011/10/15   4 /   4 Stanford 44 at  82 /  64 Washington St. 14 157  93.1% /  90.8%
2011/10/22  44 /  32 Washington 21 at   4 /   2 Stanford 65 159  91.4% /  88.3%
2011/10/29   4 /   2 Stanford 56 at  24 /  22 USC 48 191  69.6% /  83.9%
2011/11/05   4 /   2 Stanford 38 at  61 /  60 Oregon St. 13 149  88.6% /  92.8%
2011/11/12   7 /   3 Oregon 53 at   4 /   5 Stanford 30 166  59.7% /  51.2%
2011/11/19  51 /  44 California 28 at   7 /   7 Stanford 31 152  84.8% /  90.0%
2011/11/26  15 /  21 Notre Dame 14 at   7 /   7 Stanford 28 174  65.8% /  73.6%
2012/01/02   5 /   6 Stanford -- vs   9 /   4 Oklahoma St. -- --  59.2% /  36.1%


1. Rose Bowl Game presented by Visio

Monday, January 2 at 5:00 PM

Oregon Ducks (10 - 2; 9 - 1 Pac-12)
vs
Wisconsin Badgers (10 - 2; 7 - 2 Big Ten)
GUGS Score: 87.8

Eddie

Oregon Ducks
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.983 3 0.531 45 25.5 7 10.7 11 176.2 3
Wisconsin Badgers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.975 5 0.533 42 28.7 1 11.4 19 161.5 108

After the Arkansas game, this is the one game I have to watch. On one hand, you have the lightning-fast (3) Oregon Ducks with their efficient offense. On the other, you have the slow and grinding (4) Wisconsin offense that pounds defenses into paste. Due to pace, humans tend to overestimate Oregon's raw efficiency, but their 28.4 +/- 5.9 PPH suggests that nobody can stop them for an entire game. Wisconsin has put up a lot of points despite playing slowly, but they have been known to be slowed by tougher teams at 38.4 +/- 19.4 PPH. That's still better than (1a) LSU and (1b) Alabama, but it's a shade below the Ducks. This wouldn't be a problem if the Ducks couldn't play defense. Unfortunately for the Badgers, Oregon's 1.5 +/- 18.5 PPH is roughly equivalent to Wisconsin's 2.9 +/- 17.0 PPH. Oregon will push the pace to exploit their offensive advantage, leading to a 38-31 win but at only 51.7% confidence.

Justin

Oregon Ducks
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.861 6 0.598 22 26.9 10 13.0 6 185.4 1
Wisconsin Badgers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.883 4 0.535 57 35.0 1 15.6 26 157.9 110

This is far and away the most interesting game we've see since we started keeping track of this via GUGS. As Eddie said, the efficiencies of each team are somewhat distorted by pace. Wisconsin possesses the top offense according to TFG, whereas Oregon just sneaks into the top 10. On the flip side, the Oregon defense is well within the top 10 while the Badger defense is about 20 spots lower. The problem for Oregon is that those 20 spots translate to a 2.6 PPH advantage, while Wisconsin's offense holds an 8.1 PPH advantage over the Duck offense. Wisconsin's defense will struggle to keep up with Oregon's pace, while Oregon's defense will struggle simply to keep Wisconsin out of the end zone. If the Badgers can prevent the Ducks from getting a quick start and can use their overpowering offense to keep Oregon's offense off the field, they'll have the advantage. If Oregon is able to get off to the races and can contain the Badger offense -- a difficult task, considering that even in their two losses Wisconsin managed an average of 19.4 PPH on the road -- they've got a shot. It'll be close, but TFG says Wisconsin's offense gives them the edge. Wisconsin 41, Oregon 36 (54.9%); 171 plays.


Oregon Ducks Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/03   5 /   9 Oregon 27 vs   9 /   7 LSU 40 184  54.6% /  43.5%
2011/09/10  26 /  49 Nevada 20 at  10 /   4 Oregon 69 189  79.2% /  76.0%
2011/09/24   8 /   3 Oregon 56 at  48 /  35 Arizona 31 188  75.6% /  72.4%
2011/10/06  48 /  51 California 15 at   8 /   5 Oregon 43 196  87.6% /  87.0%
2011/10/15  25 /  12 Arizona St. 27 at   7 /   6 Oregon 41 186  78.2% /  73.3%
2011/10/22   7 /   5 Oregon 45 at  86 /  78 Colorado 2 173  90.9% /  93.8%
2011/10/29  89 /  71 Washington St. 28 at   5 /   4 Oregon 43 173  97.1% /  91.5%
2011/11/05   6 /   4 Oregon 34 at  45 /  30 Washington 17 162  80.5% /  86.5%
2011/11/12   7 /   3 Oregon 53 at   4 /   5 Stanford 30 166  40.3% /  48.8%
2011/11/19  20 /  12 USC 38 at   5 /   3 Oregon 35 181  71.5% /  78.1%
2011/11/26  65 /  66 Oregon St. 21 at   4 /   3 Oregon 49 197  88.2% /  92.9%
2011/12/02  75 /  65 UCLA 31 at   7 /   3 Oregon 49 183  90.6% /  89.8%
2012/01/02   4 /   5 Wisconsin -- vs   6 /   3 Oregon -- --  45.1% /  51.7%


Wisconsin Badgers Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/01 107 / 106 UNLV 17 at  14 /  11 Wisconsin 51 146  96.5% /  94.7%
2011/09/10  40 /  66 Oregon St. 0 at  15 /   7 Wisconsin 35 153  79.4% /  78.4%
2011/09/17  13 /   3 Wisconsin 49 vs  47 /  64 Northern Ill. 7 160  76.3% /  71.8%
2011/10/01  17 /  26 Nebraska 17 at   7 /   2 Wisconsin 48 159  73.9% /  66.2%
2011/10/15  95 /  95 Indiana 7 at   6 /   3 Wisconsin 59 162  96.7% /  95.3%
2011/10/22   6 /   4 Wisconsin 31 at  14 /  14 Michigan St. 37 151  57.7% /  72.7%
2011/10/29   7 /   6 Wisconsin 29 at   9 /  12 Ohio St. 33 159  47.1% /  76.4%
2011/11/05  72 /  72 Purdue 17 at   7 /   8 Wisconsin 62 166  91.6% /  91.9%
2011/11/12   6 /   6 Wisconsin 42 at  92 / 110 Minnesota 13 129  93.7% /  96.7%
2011/11/19   6 /   6 Wisconsin 28 at  47 /  52 Illinois 17 144  84.1% /  85.6%
2011/11/26  22 /  37 Penn State 7 at   6 /   4 Wisconsin 45 155  70.7% /  79.7%
2011/12/03   3 /   5 Wisconsin 42 vs  15 /  19 Michigan St. 39 154  68.0% /  65.6%
2012/01/02   4 /   5 Wisconsin -- vs   6 /   3 Oregon -- --  54.9% /  48.3%


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