#21: Independence Bowl
Georgia Bulldogs vs Texas A&M Aggies (55.2 CQR)
Eddie: (52) Georgia and (62) Texas A&M are both coming off disappointing seasons. Both offenses are reasonably consistent, but the defenses have been atrocious against better competition. Luckily for both teams, neither qualifies as "better" competition; Georgia's and Texas A&M's strengths are 0.584 and 0.491, respectively. This game is likely to be ugly with a lot of turnovers and penalties. RBA says Georgia should pull out the victory: 31-28.
Justin: These teams are remarkably similar with one small exception. Both teams have an offensive efficiency in the low 20s and a defense efficiency in the high teens. However (35) Georgia plays at a leisurely 81.5 Plays Per Half, whereas (50) Texas A&M has the third-fastest pace in the FBS Division, tearing off 91.5 PPH. The raw numbers favor the Bulldogs, but if A&M wants to pull off the upset they'll need to get Georgia off their game and into an uncomfortably quick pace. Barring that, Georgia brings the track meet under control and pulls off the 38-35 victory.
#20: Emerald Bowl
Boston College Eagles vs USC Trojans (56.6 CQR)
Justin: This will be unfamiliar territory for the (11) Trojans, as this isn't the Rose Bowl. Statistically they've done well, but haven't been able to seal the deal against several teams. An early glance over the numbers hints this might be the hallmark of an inexperienced team: brilliant in bursts but unable to get their record to match their talent level. (46) Boston College, however, has an anemic offense that's kept afloat by a stingy defense. In their fall since mid-season, USC has been strong of defense but struggled on offense. The only hope the Eagles have of not getting blown out is to find some extra offense against USC. TFG isn't convinced this will happen, and picks USC as 3-to-1 favorites in a low-scoring match.
Eddie: (36) Southern Cal has an advantage at 15.6 PPH over (49) Boston College's 13.5 PPH. Southern Cal also wins the turnover battle, so they should win this one. The only reason this game is close is because USC's defense has been uncharacteristically awful in the second half of the season, demonstrating a 35.4 PPH swing depending on the quality of opponent. If USC's defense decides to show up, Boston College doesn't have a prayer. If USC's defense is lame, it could be close. Recent history suggests the latter, so RBA predicts a close USC victory at 24-21.
#19: Gator Bowl
Florida State Seminoles vs West Virginia Mountaineers (56.7 CQR)
Eddie: For a set of mismatched opponents, this game might actually be pretty decent because the teams are nearly identical on the stat sheet: turnovers, takeaways, penalties, and quality-adjusted offense and defense. The key is that (18) West Virginia has actually been on the winning side of the ball, whereas (65) Florida State hasn't been able to get the breaks necessary to win. Since the only difference are team strengths, Florida State suffers a higher derating factor and falls behind with 15.4 PPH, as opposed to West Virginia's 18.9 PPH. RBA expects West Virginia to win by a touchdown: 31-24.
Justin: TFG says these teams aren't quite as mismatched and RBA believes, although (28) West Virginia is still the favorite. (44) Florida State has a more efficient offense than the Mountaineers, but has had more problems on the defensive side, surrendering 5.8 PPH more than West Virginia. If the Seminoles can work out their defensive issues they'll have a good shot at pulling this one off. Failing that, TFG has the Mountaineers by a FG, 31-28.
Summary:
| Home |
Visitors |
Odds |
Home |
Visitors |
Odds |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (35) | Georgia | 38 |
(50) | Texas A&M | 35 |
57.5 |
(52) | Georgia | 31 |
(62) | Texas A&M | 28 |
56.5 |
| (46) | Boston College | 24 |
(11) | USC | 27 |
77.4 |
(49) | Boston College | 21 |
(36) | USC | 24 |
53.4 |
| (44) | Florida St. | 28 |
(28) | West Virginia | 31 |
60.5 |
(65) | Florida St. | 24 |
(18) | West Virginia | 31 |
67.1 |
