Monday, October 26, 2009

Week 9: Top 25

After a full weekend of college ball here are the Top 25 for this week, including the changes from last week.

Rank
+/-
Team
WinPct
SoS
Offense
Defense
Pace
001
--
Florida
0.9716
0.6852
32.8
10.1
77.1
002
+4
Texas
0.9616
0.5703
30.3
10.4
85.6
003
+2
Boise St.
0.9592
0.4131
28.2
9.8
82.7
004
-1
Alabama
0.9581
0.5984
25.8
9.1
80.2
005
-1
Oklahoma
0.9572
0.7377
25.0
8.9
88.8
006
+1
TCU
0.9531
0.5396
23.9
8.8
81.7
007
-5
USC
0.9527
0.5681
25.3
9.3
82.9
008
--
Penn State
0.9414
0.4759
23.3
9.2
79.9
009
--
Ohio St.
0.9255
0.5364
22.4
9.7
80.4
010
--
Virginia Tech
0.9044
0.6912
26.8
12.7
80.4
011
+1
Oregon
0.8860
0.5878
23.2
11.7
89.2
012
+1
Iowa
0.8793
0.6085
22.1
11.4
79.9
013
-2
Nebraska
0.8553
0.5218
21.7
12.0
80.8
014
+4
Cincinnati
0.8423
0.4786
21.7
12.4
85.2
015
--
Clemson
0.8407
0.6319
20.4
11.7
84.1
016
+4
LSU
0.8319
0.6022
21.2
12.4
80.0
017
-3
Texas Tech
0.8235
0.5509
28.3
17.0
87.8
018
-1
Utah
0.8131
0.4101
21.4
13.1
83.4
019
-3
Mississippi
0.8096
0.5572
21.5
13.3
81.5
020
+3
Georgia Tech
0.8090
0.7278
28.2
17.4
77.5
021
-2
Tennessee
0.7793
0.6344
20.9
13.7
81.1
022
-1
West Virginia
0.7775
0.4684
23.1
15.2
83.0
023
NA
Pittsburgh
0.7770
0.5189
24.1
15.9
80.5
024
NA
Oklahoma St.
0.7742
0.5076
26.1
17.3
82.5
025
NA
Oregon St.
0.7701
0.6664
23.0
15.4
86.5

Dropped out: BYU, Notre Dame, Virginia.

The big winners this week were Texas, Cincinnati, and LSU.  Alabama, Oklahoma, and USC all won but managed to drop a few spots.  Less than one one-hundreths of a point separate spots two through seven, so there's a lot of potential for movement over the next few weeks.  Florida had big shifts in both their offensive and defensive efficiency, neither in the right direction.  Oklahoma continues to win with excellent defense, clocking in with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 8.9.

At this point I don't think it's too early to start asking what to do about Boise State.  I'll go into more depth later this week, but they've got a downhill road to an undefeated season right now, with only 1-in-12 odds that they won't go undefeated.  Their adjusted efficiencies place them in a dead heat with Alabama, but their strength of schedule is the second-weakest in the Top 25, trailing only #18 Utah.  Their one quality win is a 19-8 home victory over #11 Oregon; after that the next toughest competition is #43 Fresno State.  They've played all of two teams with adjusted defensive efficiencies less than 20, which may mean their stellar offense is more a product of poor competition than actual firepower.

In an interesting footnote, it was a mere three years ago that we were facing a Fiesta Bowl in which a presumed-favorite Oklahoma was taken down by underrespected Boise State.  Were that same game played today we may see the exact opposite scenario.