Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Week 9: Predictions

After correctly predicting an impressive 49 of the 56 games last week, it's time for the numbers to return to earth. I still expect about 42 of these predictions to be correct this week, but back-to-back 80+% accuracy would be unlikely. With that in mind, we go to ...

Games To Watch

West Virginia at South Florida. This game will come down to how well USF's offense plays. Both WVU and USF have defensive efficiency ratings around 15.5 and both have played a similar strength of schedule. WVU, however, has an offensive efficiency of 23.1 compared to 16.6 for USF. If USF can either find an extra gear in their offense or bring WVU's offense down to their level, they have a shot.

USC at Oregon. Oregon State took USC to the wire last weekend, and Oregon is a much better opponent. USC has roughly a 2-point margin in their favor on both the offensive and defensive efficiency, but if Oregon can do a better job of exploiting holes in the previously-invincible USC defense then this will be a close game. Oregon likes to play at a faster pace than USC, so there's the potential to get USC out of their element and rack up some quick points.

Kansas at Texas Tech. Both teams are coming off solid defeats -- Kansas to an underrated Oklahoma team, TTU to an out-of-nowhere A&M squad -- and looking to rebound. TTU needs to find answers on the defensive end, since Kansas has a much more efficient offense than A&M (23.4 versus 19.9). Look for this to be another high-scoring game; good offense, so-so defenses, and a quick pace.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Middle Tennessee State at Florida-Atlantic. Once again Florida-Atlantic finds itself in the projected closest game of the week, with a 52.1% chance of pulling out the victory. If this is anything like last week then this does not bode well for MTSU.

Full predictions after the break.


Home
Visitors
Odds
Memphis
17
East Carolina
31
73.5
Virginia Tech
31
North Carolina
7
92.1
South Florida
17
West Virginia
24
63.7
Arizona St.
17
California
24
54.3
Arkansas
46
Eastern Michigan
24
97.9
Auburn
17
Mississippi
24
60.1
Ball St.
17
Ohio
24
52.6
Baylor
7
Nebraska
24
88.5
Boise St.
42
SJSU
17
99.4
Boston College
17
Central Michigan
14
62.7
Colorado
17
Missouri
24
63.3
Colorado St.
17
Air Force
24
74.3
Connecticut
24
Rutgers
17
53.9
FIU
24
LA-Lafayette
17
76.3
FL-Atlantic
31
Middle Tenn.
24
52.1
Florida St.
35
North Carolina St.
17
87.3
Fresno St.
35
Utah St.
17
90.7
Houston
24
Southern Miss.
17
69.5
Idaho
24
LA Tech
31
52.3
Illinois
17
Michigan
24
73.1
Iowa
24
Indiana
7
97.2
Kent St.
24
Western Michigan
17
54.4
Kentucky
24
Mississippi St.
17
67.9
Louisville
24
Arkansas St.
17
60.0
LSU
43
Tulane
17
99.5
Miami-OH
24
Toledo
31
74.0
Minnesota
17
Michigan St.
24
60.2
Navy
31
Temple
17
80.8
Florida
35
Georgia
17
94.0
Notre Dame
24
Washington St.
7
97.7
Nevada
35
Hawaii
24
84.9
Northern Ill.
31
Akron
17
88.0
North Texas
35
Western Kentucky
31
79.8
Northwestern
14
Penn State
24
94.7
Ohio St.
41
New Mexico St.
14
99.8
Oklahoma
35
Kansas St.
7
97.6
Oklahoma St.
17
Texas
24
81.9
Oregon
17
USC
24
61.6
Oregon St.
31
UCLA
17
85.7
SDSU
24
New Mexico
17
80.1
Syracuse
17
Cincinnati
31
91.7
TCU
38
UNLV
14
99.2
Tennessee
17
South Carolina
14
74.8
Texas A&M
31
Iowa St.
24
65.1
Texas Tech
38
Kansas
31
76.7
Troy
24
LA-Monroe
17
84.1
Tulsa
35
SMU
17
87.8
Utah
31
Wyoming
14
97.1
UTEP
35
UAB
24
77.0
Vanderbilt
7
Georgia Tech
31
88.7
Virginia
24
Duke
7
81.9
Wake Forest
17
Miami-FL
24
73.2
Wisconsin
31
Purdue
24
65.7