Week 5: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities, Conference-USA

Last updated: Fri Sep 26 23:40:05 2014

Middle Tenn.

41

Old Dominion

28

Final

Week 5: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities, Mountain West

Last updated: Fri Sep 26 23:24:05 2014

Fresno St.

35

New Mexico

24

Final

Week 5: Friday Predictions

106 New Mexico 34  88 Fresno St. 38

100 New Mexico 31  73 Fresno St. 42

NA Old Dominion 32  84 Middle Tenn. 27

126 Old Dominion 34  78 Middle Tenn. 41

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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Week 5: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities, Pac-12

Last updated: Thu Sep 25 23:44:06 2014

UCLA

27

Arizona St.

17

Half

Week 5: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities, Big XII

Last updated: Thu Sep 25 23:24:05 2014

Texas Tech

35

Oklahoma St.

45

Final

Week 5: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities, Sun Belt

Last updated: Thu Sep 25 17:16:07 2014

Appalachian St.

at

Georgia Southern

Later

Week 5: Thursday Predictions

32 Arizona St. 33  30 UCLA 30

20 Arizona St. 31  34 UCLA 27

NA Georgia Southern 41 NA Appalachian St. 17

118 Georgia Southern 17 128 Appalachian St. 0

6 Oklahoma St. 46  66 Texas Tech 27

15 Oklahoma St. 42  59 Texas Tech 24

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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Week 5: Top 25 -- TFG

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	+1	Alabama  ( 4 - 0 )	0.954	0.550	44	28.6	4	9.2	2	150.1	125
2	-1	Florida St.  ( 2 - 0 )	0.951	0.728	7	28.6	3	9.4	3	161.0	104
3	--	LSU  ( 2 - 1 )	0.926	0.750	5	25.8	10	10.0	7	158.8	111
4	+8	Texas A&M  ( 3 - 0 )	0.907	0.560	38	27.2	5	11.6	18	179.9	16
5	+1	Baylor  ( 2 - 0 )	0.904	0.423	91	26.5	7	11.4	15	188.8	4
6	-1	Oklahoma St.  ( 1 - 1 )	0.904	0.775	3	28.8	1	12.4	23	185.1	8
7	+1	Stanford  ( 1 - 1 )	0.903	0.562	37	18.9	45	8.2	1	154.3	122
8	+11	Georgia  ( 2 - 1 )	0.902	0.624	23	27.0	6	11.7	19	162.4	97
9	+4	Wisconsin  ( 1 - 1 )	0.900	0.661	17	25.8	9	11.3	13	161.3	101
10	-1	Auburn  ( 3 - 0 )	0.900	0.682	13	25.5	11	11.2	12	172.4	44
11	-7	Oklahoma  ( 4 - 0 )	0.900	0.564	35	25.3	12	11.1	11	166.5	84
12	-1	Mississippi St.  ( 4 - 0 )	0.890	0.541	48	21.1	22	9.6	4	174.5	35
13	-6	Oregon  ( 3 - 0 )	0.880	0.556	40	28.8	2	13.6	37	174.0	38
14	+2	Mississippi  ( 3 - 0 )	0.875	0.518	55	20.4	29	9.8	6	171.6	49
15	-1	Notre Dame  ( 3 - 0 )	0.867	0.474	67	20.4	30	10.1	9	163.3	94
16	-1	Ohio St.  ( 2 - 1 )	0.864	0.468	70	26.3	8	13.1	28	166.5	83
17	-7	Missouri  ( 2 - 1 )	0.861	0.645	20	21.5	20	10.8	10	175.4	33
18	+5	Louisville  ( 2 - 1 )	0.837	0.379	103	17.8	54	9.6	5	158.7	112
19	-1	BYU  ( 4 - 0 )	0.824	0.551	43	20.8	27	11.6	17	182.7	14
20	+1	Nebraska  ( 3 - 0 )	0.809	0.464	71	23.2	16	13.5	33	171.7	48
21	NA	Clemson  ( 0 - 2 )	0.800	0.852	1	20.5	28	12.1	21	180.4	15
22	-5	Michigan St.  ( 1 - 1 )	0.798	0.462	74	21.1	24	12.6	25	165.2	87
23	-3	Florida  ( 2 - 1 )	0.789	0.603	29	19.0	43	11.6	16	173.1	43
24	-2	South Carolina  ( 3 - 1 )	0.780	0.751	4	24.7	13	15.4	45	158.1	114
25	NA	TCU  ( 1 - 0 )	0.777	0.618	26	19.3	39	12.1	22	173.3	41

Rankings through games of 2014-09-21

New entries: Clemson, TCU.

Dropped out: Washington, Kansas St..

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Week 5: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Arkansas (0.122); Maryland (0.111); Rutgers (0.107); Washington St. (0.103); Virginia (0.100)

Biggest drops: Syracuse (-0.159); Northern Ill. (-0.150); SDSU (-0.136); North Carolina (-0.127); Bowling Green (-0.092)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 5: Top 25 -- RBA

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Florida St.  ( 2 - 0 )	0.917	0.542	30	29.6	2	8.5	2	165.6	84
2	--	Alabama  ( 4 - 0 )	0.879	0.554	12	26.0	7	8.8	3	155.9	128
3	+3	LSU  ( 2 - 1 )	0.862	0.552	16	21.3	21	9.4	6	160.4	123
4	-1	Baylor  ( 2 - 0 )	0.862	0.560	6	26.9	5	11.5	21	176.1	5
5	--	Wisconsin  ( 1 - 1 )	0.858	0.534	48	27.4	4	9.4	5	161.6	118
6	-2	Mississippi  ( 3 - 0 )	0.850	0.538	41	24.1	13	9.3	4	164.7	99
7	+3	Oklahoma  ( 4 - 0 )	0.839	0.551	19	23.7	14	10.9	15	171.7	20
8	+1	Oregon  ( 3 - 0 )	0.837	0.532	50	25.1	10	12.5	29	177.4	3
9	+8	Auburn  ( 3 - 0 )	0.835	0.555	11	25.4	9	10.8	14	160.1	124
10	+2	Texas A&M  ( 3 - 0 )	0.827	0.551	17	26.7	6	11.5	22	174.0	10
11	-3	Michigan St.  ( 1 - 1 )	0.819	0.542	32	23.1	16	10.3	9	166.5	75
12	-1	Stanford  ( 1 - 1 )	0.819	0.547	24	20.9	24	7.9	1	166.2	77
13	--	Notre Dame  ( 3 - 0 )	0.814	0.567	3	19.8	29	9.9	8	164.2	101
14	+2	Missouri  ( 2 - 1 )	0.813	0.528	56	21.5	20	12.3	26	174.8	9
15	+3	Oklahoma St.  ( 1 - 1 )	0.789	0.558	7	22.8	17	10.4	11	175.6	6
16	-2	BYU  ( 4 - 0 )	0.787	0.488	73	17.8	48	10.8	13	171.2	23
17	+3	USC  ( 2 - 1 )	0.777	0.540	36	20.0	27	13.1	36	166.6	72
18	-11	Louisville  ( 2 - 1 )	0.776	0.482	79	19.3	35	10.3	10	164.7	97
19	+4	Ohio St.  ( 2 - 1 )	0.748	0.526	59	25.5	8	11.5	23	160.7	122
20	+4	Arizona St.  ( 2 - 0 )	0.745	0.539	39	23.4	15	15.2	52	174.8	8
21	-6	Florida  ( 2 - 1 )	0.743	0.562	4	19.7	30	11.4	20	160.9	120
22	+3	South Carolina  ( 3 - 1 )	0.738	0.542	31	24.7	12	17.1	71	158.3	127
23	NA	Nebraska  ( 3 - 0 )	0.737	0.538	40	22.3	18	13.1	37	167.8	63
24	-2	Kansas St.  ( 1 - 1 )	0.735	0.540	35	21.1	22	12.5	28	165.3	89
25	-6	Clemson  ( 0 - 2 )	0.735	0.537	43	21.7	19	12.6	31	169.1	41

Rankings through games of 2014-09-21

New entries: Nebraska.

Dropped out: Georgia.

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