2011 - 2012: Final Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: SMU (0.096); Northern Ill. (0.048); Temple (0.039); FIU (0.035); LA-Monroe (0.028)

Biggest drops: Pittsburgh (-0.064); Clemson (-0.054); Wake Forest (-0.031); Maryland (-0.031); Boston College (-0.029)

Full rankings after the jump.

2011 - 2012: Final Top 25 -- TFG

Eddie and I got distracted by life after the end of the championship game, but over a month later here is your final TFG top 25 for the 2011 - 2012 season.

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	0.973	0.661	5	37.2	2	8.9	1	149.2	120
2	--	LSU	0.937	0.710	1	33.3	5	11.4	2	153.2	113
3	--	Boise St.	0.899	0.431	84	33.8	4	14.1	5	160.7	80
4	--	Wisconsin	0.869	0.554	50	39.2	1	18.4	36	152.4	116
5	--	Stanford	0.861	0.559	46	34.5	3	16.7	21	157.6	100
6	--	Oregon	0.855	0.608	17	29.9	10	14.7	6	179.8	5
7	--	Oklahoma	0.852	0.598	25	25.8	22	12.8	3	178.3	7
8	--	TCU	0.850	0.421	86	31.8	6	15.9	18	158.9	91
9	--	Oklahoma St.	0.836	0.597	26	30.1	9	15.7	17	180.1	3
10	+1	Arkansas	0.812	0.637	8	31.7	7	17.6	29	167.2	35
11	+1	South Carolina	0.801	0.628	11	27.3	15	15.6	15	155.9	103
12	-2	Florida St.	0.795	0.549	52	26.3	20	15.3	12	154.7	109
13	+2	Michigan St.	0.782	0.603	20	25.4	23	15.2	10	161.6	71
14	-1	Michigan	0.779	0.573	34	30.6	8	18.5	37	156.0	102
15	-1	USC	0.776	0.566	41	27.5	14	16.8	23	163.4	52
16	+1	Florida	0.762	0.668	4	24.9	27	15.7	16	156.6	101
17	-1	Virginia Tech	0.759	0.518	61	24.4	30	15.4	13	155.6	105
18	--	Notre Dame	0.756	0.618	12	23.7	31	15.1	9	164.2	48
19	--	Georgia	0.751	0.617	13	26.8	18	17.2	25	162.3	61
20	--	Texas A&M	0.750	0.595	29	23.3	35	15.0	7	183.3	1
21	+1	Houston	0.741	0.396	95	28.2	11	18.5	38	180.1	4
22	-1	Ohio St.	0.726	0.566	40	25.1	25	17.0	24	153.2	112
23	--	Missouri	0.720	0.568	38	22.4	45	15.3	11	169.4	22
24	NA	Temple	0.706	0.309	119	24.6	29	17.3	28	150.3	119
25	NA	West Virginia	0.705	0.541	55	27.3	16	19.2	48	166.7	37

Rankings through games of 2012-01-15

New entries: Temple, West Virginia.

Dropped out: Nebraska, Texas.

In a surprise to effectively no one, the Alabama Crimson Tide end the season atop the rankings. Certainly some say that Oklahoma State deserved a shot at the title in place of Alabama. I'm not going to re-hash those arguments here, but I will make this observation: based on nearly twelve years of data, the Crimson Tide had the highest end-of-season rankings we've seen here. If they played the 2003 USC Trojans, they would be 73% likely to win. They'd be two-to-one favorites against the 2008 Tebow Gators, as well as Vince Young and the 2005 Texas Longhorns. The 2011 Oklahoma State Cowboys would have had a one-in-four shot of winning a title game against LSU.

Their odds against Alabama?

One in eight.

That's not to say that they absolutely, positively would have lost; there's a reason we play the games. But that is to say to call the Cowboys "underdogs" in this context would be a polite understatement of the highest order.

Let me also take a moment to address some expected criticism.
Wisconsin and Oregon effectively played to a tie. As a friend of mine from LSU said, "Wisconsin obviously took a page from the 'Les Miles School of Clock Management', but forgot to take the more advanced 'Pulling Wins Out of Your Ass'." We were one second and a Hail Mary away from OT.
Stanford was the better team. If it weren't for some poor FG kicking, they would have won. If it hadn't been for two uncharacteristic turnovers and two uncharacteristic lapses on defense, it wouldn't have been close. If this game gets played ten times, Stanford wins six of them.
Boise State is still third because of how they played all season, despite their game against TCU. They gave Georgia their second-worst loss of the year (behind LSU), barely lost to an 11-2 TCU team, and beat Arizona State more soundly than Oregon.

In the end, though, this was Alabama's season. The 2011 Crimson Tide will go down as the most dominant team in the Tempo-Free Gridiron era, despite their one loss. Let's just hope they can get a better kicking game next year.

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Counting Down the Champions, #1: 2005 Texas Longhorns

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2005/09/03	108	/ 104	LA-Lafayette	3	at	8	/  10	Texas	60	168	98.3%	/  96.9%
2005/09/10	3	/   6	Texas	25	at	12	/  13	Ohio St.	22	157	52.5%	/  33.1%
2005/09/17	96	/ 107	Rice	10	at	2	/   7	Texas	51	157	98.0%	/  97.1%
2005/10/01	4	/   7	Texas	51	at	43	/  44	Missouri	20	189	82.4%	/  89.7%
2005/10/08	4	/   3	Texas	45	vs	7	/  24	Oklahoma	12	167	55.8%	/  70.7%
2005/10/15	30	/  28	Colorado	17	at	4	/   2	Texas	42	173	87.4%	/  73.9%
2005/10/22	14	/  14	Texas Tech	17	at	2	/   2	Texas	52	184	81.9%	/  73.2%
2005/10/29	2	/   2	Texas	47	at	68	/  80	Oklahoma St.	28	186	91.0%	/  94.6%
2005/11/05	3	/   2	Texas	62	at	87	/  84	Baylor	0	164	95.8%	/  96.1%
2005/11/12	49	/  38	Kansas	14	at	1	/   2	Texas	66	175	93.6%	/  86.0%
2005/11/25	1	/   2	Texas	40	at	44	/  48	Texas A&M	29	171	92.5%	/  91.4%
2005/12/03	2	/   1	Texas	70	vs	36	/  29	Colorado	3	166	88.7%	/  75.8%
2006/01/04	1	/   1	Texas	41	vs	3	/   2	USC	38	182	62.6%	/  38.8%

Texas Longhorns
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2005	0.948	1	0.538	62	36.0	1	11.2	3	170.5	55

Justin

They were called the greatest college football team ever assembled. Eleven players went in the NFL draft: seven on the first day, four on the second. Their offense had two Heisman winners.

And the best BCS champion in our countdown defeated them, 41-38, in the 2006 BCS championship game. In retrospect, the blind "arrogance" of Will Ferrell versus the cool, justified confidence of Matthew McConaughey in this pregame clip sums up the pregame attitudes better than I can say here.

This Texas team was the clear TFG #1 heading into this game, listed at 62.6% likely to win. So why Texas and not USC? The Longhorns eeked by (12) Ohio State, but from there on out simply dominated their competition. They put up 26.9 PPH against (7) Oklahoma, 28.3 PPH against (14) Texas Tech, and averaged 33.0 PPH in their two meetings against (30) Colorado. On top of that, their defense was the #3 defense in FBS that year, only allowing 11.2 PPH. USC, by comparison, allowed 12.7 PPH in their season. So why all the USC hype? They were the defending national champions (possibly two-time national champions, depending on who you ask), played a tougher schedule than Texas, and defeated more top-30 teams than the Longhorns. But USC also had more close calls than Texas, which should have been cause for concern (who remembers the "Bush push" against then-TFG#27 Notre Dame?). In the end, the Longhorns proved that they and not the over-hyped Trojans were the team of the decade.

Texas Longhorns
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2005	1.000	1	0.500	65	29.5	2	8.4	7	169.8	67

Eddie

(1) Texas beat out one of the greatest teams of all time in the 2006 Rose Bowl in (2) Southern Cal, and that tells you something about Vince Young's Longhorns. After beating (15) Ohio State by a field goal in September, nobody came within 10 or held the Longhorns to fewer than 40 points until the Rose Bowl. Even then, the Trojans only came within a field goal of the Longhorns. Texas's offensive efficiency of 35.1 +/- 11.1 PPH is amazing. To put that in perspective, we'd expect Vince Young and company to hang 27.8 PPH against this year's LSU Tiger defense. That's roughly equal to 46 points. Think about that for a second. This year's top two teams played to a 9-6 final score in overtime, and RBA expects Texas to score over 40 points against them. Texas's defense is very good at 4.4 +/- 7.5 PPH. That's not quite as good as many of the teams on this list, but they didn't have to be due to their explosive offense, making them the top team in our countdown.

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Counting Down the Champions, #2: 2008 Florida

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2008/08/30	43	/  59	Hawaii	10	at	7	/   2	Florida	56	148	77.8%	/  68.3%
2008/09/06	74	/  76	Miami-FL	3	at	4	/   1	Florida	26	148	95.3%	/  85.3%
2008/09/20	3	/   2	Florida	30	at	19	/  36	Tennessee	6	135	66.7%	/  72.5%
2008/09/27	56	/  59	Mississippi	31	at	2	/   1	Florida	30	162	93.8%	/  89.4%
2008/10/04	4	/   2	Florida	38	at	54	/  66	Arkansas	7	157	82.0%	/  90.6%
2008/10/11	6	/  11	LSU	21	at	3	/   3	Florida	51	155	66.0%	/  55.6%
2008/10/25	34	/  40	Kentucky	5	at	3	/   2	Florida	63	153	88.4%	/  72.7%
2008/11/01	9	/  12	Georgia	10	vs	2	/   1	Florida	49	148	68.5%	/  55.9%
2008/11/08	2	/   1	Florida	42	at	50	/  50	Vanderbilt	14	144	90.6%	/  85.4%
2008/11/15	24	/  26	South Carolina	6	at	2	/   1	Florida	56	159	87.0%	/  76.7%
2008/11/29	2	/   1	Florida	45	at	23	/  25	Florida St.	15	160	87.3%	/  84.5%
2008/12/06	2	/   1	Florida	31	vs	8	/   5	Alabama	20	145	69.8%	/  60.7%
2009/01/08	4	/   3	Oklahoma	14	vs	2	/   1	Florida	24	165	67.2%	/  55.2%

Florida Gators
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2008	0.947	2	0.640	5	38.5	1	12.2	6	159.0	111

Justin

Let's just get this out of the way: From the Tebow-Tebow Tebow Tebow the Tebow-Tebow Tebow, the Tebow Tebow Tebow is Tebow PPH. The Tebow 10 Tebow Tebow a Tebow Tebow than Tebow PPH. Tebow one Tebow Tebow Tebow had an Tebow Tebow than Tebow PPH: the Tebow-Tebow Tebow Gators Tebow by Tim Tebow. In all seriousness, what this team did to even quality opposition was scary. They hung 21.4 PPH on an Alabama squad whose previous worst was 20.4 PPH on the road against (5) Georgia. They put up

• 22.2 PPH against (19) Tennessee;
• 28.1 PPH against (23) Florida State;
• 32.9 PPH against (6) LSU;
• 33.1 PPH against (9) Georgia; and
• 35.2 PPH against (24) South Carolina.

And keep in mind that these are raw efficiencies, not adjusted for strength of opponent. I'm not a Tebow fanboy by any stretch of the imagination, and you can argue that it was because of the receivers or the offensive scheme or that Urban Meyer ran up the score (Eddie will address that) but our numbers predict that the 2008 Gators would put up 39 points on this year's LSU squad. The only reason they didn't finish the year at the top of the TFG rankings was because their defensive efficiency wasn't quite up to par -- USC had an other-worldly 7.2 PPH -- but when you've got the top-rated offense over the last 10 years ... well, maybe you don't need to worry as much about your defense.

Florida Gators
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2008	1.000	1	0.559	7	26.4	3	9.1	8	163.4	102

Eddie

Say what you will about Tim Tebow in the NFL, but he really was an astounding collegiate quarterback. (1) Florida was challenged exactly one time during the regular season: a 31-30 loss to (60) Ole Miss where Tebow was stopped at the one yard line on the go ahead score. In contrast, Florida beat (37) Tennessee by 24, (11) LSU by 30, (13) Georgia by 39, (27) South Carolina by 50, (27) Florida State by 30, and a very good (5) Alabama by 11. They even beat (3) Oklahoma by 10 in the national championship game. Much like this year's Southern Miss, the Gators played up to their competition offensively, sporting a ridiculous 21.7 -/+ 8.7 PPH efficiency (note the sign change). The Gators didn't play exceptional defense at 7.3 +/- 3.5 PPH, but they didn't have to with an offense like that. One can only wonder how they could have performed if they hadn't put the scrubs in so early in the ball game after building huge leads.

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Counting Down the Champions, #3: 2004 USC Trojans

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2004/08/28	20	/  26	Virginia Tech	13	vs	4	/   2	USC	24	147	74.5%	/  73.6%
2004/09/11	45	/  58	Colorado St.	0	at	6	/   1	USC	49	164	92.2%	/  84.8%
2004/09/18	2	/   1	USC	42	at	82	/  95	BYU	10	174	96.0%	/  93.2%
2004/09/25	3	/   1	USC	31	at	55	/  47	Stanford	28	153	89.4%	/  94.8%
2004/10/09	9	/   4	California	17	at	4	/   2	USC	23	147	77.2%	/  78.0%
2004/10/16	20	/  23	Arizona St.	7	at	3	/   1	USC	45	162	84.2%	/  76.4%
2004/10/23	72	/  78	Washington	0	at	2	/   1	USC	38	175	97.1%	/  94.3%
2004/10/30	2	/   2	USC	42	at	44	/  41	Washington St.	12	183	87.0%	/  82.0%
2004/11/06	1	/   2	USC	28	at	36	/  31	Oregon St.	20	183	87.5%	/  81.4%
2004/11/13	93	/  71	Arizona	9	at	1	/   2	USC	49	161	98.1%	/  96.4%
2004/11/27	34	/  33	Notre Dame	10	at	2	/   2	USC	41	155	87.5%	/  83.6%
2004/12/04	2	/   2	USC	29	at	37	/  30	UCLA	24	160	89.8%	/  89.0%
2005/01/04	2	/   1	USC	55	vs	1	/   6	Oklahoma	19	166	40.6%	/  45.0%

USC Trojans
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2004	0.928	2	0.607	24	30.4	1	10.9	2	167.2	83

Justin

After the 2003 season USC set out to prove that they were the team to beat. With the exception of the week of November 13th, though, it was the Oklahoma Sooners who were the wire-to-wire TFG #1. USC, Auburn, and Miami jostled around for the #2 spot most of the season, but by the time of the BCS title game it was clear that Oklahoma and USC were the top two teams in college football. Once again, the BCS and TFG agree on this fact. Oklahoma had the #2 offense at 29.7 PPH and the #1 defense at 9.2 PPH, while the Trojans had the top-rated offense and the second-rated defense. Even against top-rated teams such as (9) Cal and (20) Virginia Tech -- who would finish the season at #5 and #9, respectively -- the Trojans put up solid performances. The title game wasn't even close, as the final score of 55-19 doesn't even start to describe the degree to which USC dominated Oklahoma. Auburn went 13-0, but thanks to the BCS format didn't get a shot at USC. TFG says they only would have had a 39.8% chance against the Trojans, but those are roughly the odds that USC had against the Sooners. Chalk up another argument for a plus-one or even an eight-team playoff.

USC Trojans
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2004	1.000	1	0.552	19	23.7	5	7.0	4	170.4	63

Eddie

Looking back on history, the 2004 season could be remembered as the year where blind conference loyalty and homerism leaped to the forefront of college broadcasting. (1) Southern Cal was an unquestioned champion according to RBA but faced weak opposition in the championship because the BCS cast aside (3) Auburn instead of (6) Oklahoma, leading SEC fans into a non-stop redneck publicity campaign that continues to this day. Between Reggie Bush, LenDale White, Matt Leinart, Dwayne Jarrett, Steve Smith, and an embarrassment of riches on the lines and two-deep, the Trojans sported the most consistent offense on this list at 24.7 +/- 1.9 PPH. Their defense had moments of weakness, surrendering 28 to Stanford and 20 to Oregon State, but were otherwise dominating at 1.9 +/- 10.4 PPH. The Trojans left little doubt that they were a legitimate national champion. Oh, the #2 team that should have been playing in the national championship game against USC was... (2) Boise State.

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Counting Down the Champions, #4: 2009 Alabama Crimson Tide

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2009/09/05	19	/  25	Virginia Tech	24	vs	9	/   7	Alabama	34	165	68.9%	/  78.7%
2009/09/12	109	/ 105	FIU	14	at	8	/   7	Alabama	40	160	98.0%	/  96.4%
2009/09/19	115	/ 115	North Texas	7	at	9	/   8	Alabama	53	146	98.6%	/  97.0%
2009/09/26	53	/  56	Arkansas	7	at	9	/   7	Alabama	35	165	89.2%	/  83.1%
2009/10/03	7	/   7	Alabama	38	at	49	/  42	Kentucky	20	164	80.8%	/  79.9%
2009/10/10	7	/   5	Alabama	22	at	14	/  21	Mississippi	3	159	58.9%	/  64.5%
2009/10/17	35	/  28	South Carolina	6	at	6	/   3	Alabama	20	158	89.3%	/  75.0%
2009/10/24	21	/  20	Tennessee	10	at	4	/   6	Alabama	12	155	86.0%	/  78.9%
2009/11/07	12	/  17	LSU	15	at	5	/   4	Alabama	24	155	70.9%	/  75.1%
2009/11/14	5	/   4	Alabama	31	at	51	/  53	Mississippi St.	3	136	86.5%	/  91.4%
2009/11/27	4	/   4	Alabama	26	at	36	/  28	Auburn	21	156	85.1%	/  81.0%
2009/12/05	1	/   4	Florida	13	vs	4	/   1	Alabama	32	139	33.7%	/  36.4%
2010/01/07	4	/   3	Texas	21	vs	3	/   1	Alabama	37	167	52.6%	/  52.8%

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2009	0.914	3	0.619	13	27.3	4	10.6	3	157.7	114

Justin

This is the second consecutive appearance in our countdown by Nick Saban. It's also the second appearance of a team that played during the life of this blog, and the second that we had to explain away as being not the best team in college football that year. The Tebow Gators with their 32.7 PPH offense and 11.5 PPH defense finished the year 0.018 ahead of the Crimson Tide in our rankings despite having lost to them in the title game. (Once again, we refer you to Ken Massey's comment about the best team not always winning.) Don't get me wrong; Alabama had a bruisingly efficient offense that ranked 4th in the nation once adjusted for strength of schedule and pace -- something that not all critics take into account -- and a solid defense. That's not to say that this team didn't have their close calls. They needed a blocked FG just to get past Tennessee, as well as fourth quarter comebacks against Virginia Tech, LSU, and Auburn. This team was excellent, but not truly dominating to the same degree as the remaining teams in our countdown.

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2009	1.000	1	0.548	18	21.8	11	7.4	3	158.2	119

Eddie

2009 Alabama marks the first true RBA #1 in our countdown. Their offense wasn't flashy but managed to put points on the board at a 29.9 +/- 16.5 PPH efficiency. Like virtually every other team on this list, Alabama dominated thanks to its defense. "Mount" Terrance Cody, Rolando McClain, Dont'a Hightower, and Javier Arenas crushed opposing offenses, resulting in a 4.0 +/- 6.7 PPH efficiency. As good as this team was, they were barely the best team of 2009. RBA thinks that the (1a) Crimson Tide stomped all over (1b) Texas in the BCS national championship primarily because Colt McCoy was injured on the first drive of the game because both teams were very evenly matched otherwise.

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Counting Down the Champions, #5: 2003 LSU Tigers

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2003/08/30	112	/ 113	LA-Monroe	7	at	20	/  20	LSU	49	171	96.8%	/  98.6%
2003/09/06	17	/  16	LSU	59	at	69	/  74	Arizona	13	173	72.6%	/  87.6%
2003/09/20	5	/   3	Georgia	10	at	14	/  11	LSU	17	181	40.2%	/  30.0%
2003/09/27	13	/   9	LSU	41	at	74	/  83	Mississippi St.	6	158	85.0%	/  90.4%
2003/10/11	16	/  16	Florida	19	at	7	/  11	LSU	7	157	67.2%	/  51.6%
2003/10/18	12	/   9	LSU	33	at	39	/  45	South Carolina	7	156	63.6%	/  80.1%
2003/10/25	19	/  21	Auburn	7	at	6	/   5	LSU	31	148	75.8%	/  69.0%
2003/11/01	71	/  83	LA Tech	10	at	6	/   3	LSU	49	168	94.0%	/  95.8%
2003/11/15	4	/   5	LSU	27	at	13	/  21	Alabama	3	162	60.7%	/  82.8%
2003/11/22	3	/   5	LSU	17	at	28	/  24	Mississippi	14	164	79.8%	/  84.5%
2003/11/28	13	/  21	Arkansas	24	at	5	/   5	LSU	55	150	68.2%	/  83.0%
2003/12/06	3	/   4	LSU	34	vs	5	/   6	Georgia	13	161	53.1%	/  33.9%
2004/01/04	1	/   2	Oklahoma	14	vs	3	/   3	LSU	21	166	39.7%	/  43.8%

LSU Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2003	0.917	3	0.595	20	27.9	5	10.7	3	163.0	110

Justin

Ah, the 2003-2004 season. The first of USC's AP national titles, but the one that the BCS doesn't recognize. TFG, though, actually agrees with the BCS on this one; USC had an excellent offense at 31.1 PPH, but their 13.6 PPH defense didn't do them any favors. LSU, however, is a different story. In fact the main contrast between the 2003 squad and the 2007 team is that this year's team relied more on defense. Look at their last entry, and then look at this one. Only once did a team crack the 20-point barrier against the 2003 Tiger squad, whereas it happened seven times in 2007. Even adjusting for strength of opponent and pace -- two of the 2007 games went into 3OT -- this squad flat-out played defense at a higher level than in later years, and it paid off for them in the form of a national championship.

LSU Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2003	0.991	3	0.558	18	23.7	4	7.0	4	164.7	107

Eddie

For the second time in this list, (1) Southern Cal has reason to be upset because they had to sit at home and watch (2) Oklahoma play (3) LSU in the national championship game. This defense was every bit as nasty as 2011's defense. The 2003 team was led by DL Chad Lavalais and CB Corey Webster to a 3.8 +/- 6.3 PPH efficiency. The offense was surprisingly effective at 34.4 +/- 21.3 PPH, even if they were occasionally flaky and completely unmemorable. In the end, they were able to upset (yes, upset) Oklahoma in the national championship game, earning perpetual trolling rights over USC fans.

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Counting Down the Champions, #6: 2007 LSU Tigers

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2007/08/30	2	/   6	LSU	45	at	87	/  77	Mississippi St.	0	159	95.7%	/  94.3%
2007/09/08	3	/  30	Virginia Tech	7	at	1	/   1	LSU	48	158	70.6%	/  55.2%
2007/09/15	85	/  96	Middle Tenn.	0	at	1	/   1	LSU	44	145	98.9%	/  99.0%
2007/09/22	29	/  24	South Carolina	16	at	1	/   3	LSU	28	164	94.4%	/  91.4%
2007/09/29	1	/   1	LSU	34	at	115	/ 117	Tulane	9	169	99.2%	/  99.6%
2007/10/06	4	/   4	Florida	24	at	1	/   2	LSU	28	158	81.7%	/  81.8%
2007/10/13	1	/   2	LSU	37	at	41	/  34	Kentucky	43	200	89.4%	/  90.9%
2007/10/20	11	/  16	Auburn	24	at	2	/   3	LSU	30	157	84.5%	/  82.1%
2007/11/03	2	/   4	LSU	41	at	26	/  30	Alabama	34	191	80.7%	/  86.1%
2007/11/10	101	/ 101	LA Tech	10	at	2	/   4	LSU	58	175	98.0%	/  97.4%
2007/11/17	2	/   3	LSU	41	at	77	/  84	Mississippi	24	161	94.7%	/  94.4%
2007/11/23	25	/  25	Arkansas	50	at	2	/   5	LSU	48	210	76.6%	/  75.9%
2007/12/01	28	/  24	Tennessee	14	vs	2	/   5	LSU	21	170	76.8%	/  71.1%
2008/01/07	1	/   4	Ohio St.	24	vs	2	/   3	LSU	38	156	36.4%	/  68.2%

LSU Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2007	0.881	2	0.581	33	29.7	3	13.3	9	165.4	86

Justin

It's interesting to note that this is one time where the TFG and BCS rankings agreed on the top two teams. LSU had stumbled twice during the season, losing to (41) Kentucky and (25) Arkansas in a pair of triple-overtime contests. This team is also where we see a trend in BCS champions emerge: from here on out, all teams that win a BCS championship have a top-3 offense or defense, and a top-10 squad on the other side of the ball. In this case the Tigers had one of the most efficient offenses in FBS, and a respectable defense that only allowed 13.3 PPH. This was the year that Les Miles really earned the "Mad Hatter" nickname, with several unorthodox play calls. LSU often went for it on 4th down, succeeding over 80% of the time.

This was also the second year that Ohio State would face -- and lose against -- the SEC champion. As with most of their games, LSU succeeded thanks to their efficient offense and great defense.

LSU Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2007	0.991	3	0.548	21	23.8	4	10.1	7	162.1	112

Eddie

The "Year of the Upset" finished with two-loss (3) LSU knocking off one-loss (4) Ohio State in one of the best seasons I can personally remember. RBA considered (1) Southern Cal and (2) West Virginia to be better teams, but LSU was certainly a good team powered by a good, but not otherworldly 3.6 +/- 12.9 PPH defense and a consistent but not great 29.7 +/- 11.8 PPH offense. They lost close games and benefited greatly from 2006 Florida's dismantling of Ohio State and timely flops by (6) Missouri and (2) West Virginia in the final week of the regular season. Before leaving 2007, where were Georgia and their upset fans in all this? Lounging at RBA #8, so quit your whining Bulldog fans.

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Counting Down the Champions, #7: 2006 Florida Gators

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2006/09/02	57	/  69	Southern Miss.	7	at	19	/  16	Florida	34	144	82.5%	/  78.6%
2006/09/09	86	/  87	UCF	0	at	16	/  10	Florida	42	161	94.2%	/  85.8%
2006/09/16	8	/  12	Florida	21	at	26	/  33	Tennessee	20	147	58.7%	/  68.3%
2006/09/23	66	/  73	Kentucky	7	at	10	/  12	Florida	26	154	91.5%	/  96.6%
2006/09/30	18	/  26	Alabama	13	at	10	/  10	Florida	28	148	73.1%	/  63.2%
2006/10/07	5	/  13	LSU	10	at	7	/   5	Florida	23	151	53.8%	/  72.6%
2006/10/14	4	/   8	Florida	17	at	9	/  11	Auburn	27	134	48.8%	/  60.7%
2006/10/28	18	/  21	Georgia	14	vs	6	/   9	Florida	21	152	67.1%	/  71.5%
2006/11/04	6	/  10	Florida	25	at	67	/  56	Vanderbilt	19	155	89.8%	/  89.1%
2006/11/11	35	/  30	South Carolina	16	at	9	/  11	Florida	17	145	79.0%	/  74.2%
2006/11/25	9	/  10	Florida	21	at	33	/  37	Florida St.	14	156	73.7%	/  75.8%
2006/12/02	8	/  11	Florida	38	vs	15	/  21	Arkansas	28	153	56.3%	/  60.1%
2007/01/08	1	/   1	Ohio St.	14	vs	8	/   4	Florida	41	143	24.0%	/  20.0%

Florida Gators
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2006	0.847	8	0.661	2	23.4	18	11.8	9	165.1	81

Justin

The 2006-2007 season is particularly relevant given that there were many calls for a rematch between BCS#1 Ohio State and BCS#3 Michigan. Florida, though, snuck into the title game thanks to a 13-9 upset victory by UCLA over USC. This Gator team was good but not particularly dominating, with several close calls against second-tier opponents (see: (26) Tennessee, (67) Vandy, and (35) South Carolina). Like most SEC teams, this Florida squad played a slow, considered game that only once broke the 160-plays-per-game mark. Their offense wasn't really considered "dominating" by any measure, which made their 41-14 victory in the title game all that much more surprising. Their offense would flourish in later years, though, as the 2008-2009 Gator squad will demonstrate.

Florida Gators
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2006	0.983	4	0.551	18	19.1	25	8.9	11	165.1	90

Eddie

I know what you're thinking. The 2006 Florida Gators blasted the crap out of the undefeated (1) Ohio State Buckeyes. How could they possibly be the 7th best champion? For starters, somebody has to be near the bottom. Second, Florida didn't win games big like their 2008 championship team. 2008 Florida even had a loss, but it was a respectable loss to (11) Auburn. In fact, it wasn't until the SEC championship game against (22) Arkansas where (11) Florida really became (4) Florida and punched their ticket to the BCS championship game where they would crucify the Buckeyes as 20.0% underdogs. Not bad for a team that only beat (31) Tennessee and (29) South Carolina by one point a piece.

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Counting Down the Champions, #8: 2010 Auburn Tigers

[ Sorry for the delay. A combination of holiday travel and a stomach bug held this up, but here we go. ]

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2010/09/04	103	/ 104	Arkansas St.	26	at	33	/  33	Auburn	52	181	91.9%	/  86.8%
2010/09/09	31	/  32	Auburn	17	at	39	/  35	Mississippi St.	14	157	40.1%	/  63.8%
2010/09/18	21	/  22	Clemson	24	at	31	/  26	Auburn	27	174	52.7%	/  55.0%
2010/09/25	22	/  19	South Carolina	27	at	28	/  22	Auburn	35	158	55.9%	/  40.0%
2010/10/02	105	/ 109	LA-Monroe	3	at	23	/  24	Auburn	52	151	94.1%	/  90.5%
2010/10/09	19	/  20	Auburn	37	at	54	/  44	Kentucky	34	157	64.6%	/  61.5%
2010/10/16	18	/  22	Arkansas	43	at	17	/  17	Auburn	65	172	61.6%	/  54.8%
2010/10/23	9	/  12	LSU	17	at	16	/  14	Auburn	24	159	47.6%	/  57.2%
2010/10/30	15	/  13	Auburn	51	at	47	/  48	Mississippi	31	159	61.8%	/  70.2%
2010/11/13	18	/  21	Georgia	31	at	13	/  11	Auburn	49	151	61.2%	/  51.4%
2010/11/26	13	/  12	Auburn	28	at	3	/   4	Alabama	27	158	25.5%	/  23.5%
2010/12/04	14	/  18	South Carolina	17	vs	13	/   8	Auburn	56	158	50.7%	/  56.1%
2011/01/10	5	/   4	Oregon	19	vs	10	/   7	Auburn	22	182	42.9%	/  65.2%

Auburn Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2010	0.833	10	0.662	3	30.4	2	16.0	28	166.8	55

Justin

We've discussed this team a few times before. Their whole season was highly improbable, they often won by the skin of their teeth, and they had an absolutely atrocious defense. But just to recap some of the "highlights" of the Auburn season:

• a dropped TD pass by Clemson in OT;
• a last-minute field goal to beat Kentucky;
• three Alabama turnovers inside the Auburn 5;
• four failed attempts by the Ducks to punch it in from the 1 (yet they went 2-for-2 in 2pt conversions);
• a failure of the Ducks to get the easy 3 on a 4th-and-goal from the 1; and
• a tackle that was (correctly) called not-a-tackle in the closing minute of the title game.

What got them through this season was a combination of an efficient offense and a series of freakishly lucky plays. This team wasn't dominating in the way that many of the later teams on our countdown were, and they deservedly end up at the bottom of this list.

Auburn Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2010	0.957	7	0.545	25	26.1	1	13.0	36	158.9	117

Eddie

Our freshest national title memories come first in this countdown. There's little question that Auburn is the worst national champion of the last decade. Sure, they went undefeated, and that counts for something. However, that understates the way that they managed to go undefeated -- winning close games. The Tigers beat (35) Mississippi State by three, (22) Clemson by three, (45) Kentucky by three, (4) Alabama by one, and (4) Oregon by three. Some of those teams were pretty good, so why the disrespect? First, Auburn didn't play a lick of defense in 2010, and RBA favors teams that play good defense. Second, great teams whip opponents. Auburn simply didn't do that. They were marginally favored in several games and scraped by -- just as expected -- suggesting to the computer that they were properly ranked.

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