Week 14: Saturday Predictions

The last week of major non-bowl play wraps up on Sunday.  With only 14 games to choose from it's tough to fill out the slate and find hidden gems, so we're just going to go with the obvious ones for this week.

Games of the Week

Florida Gators vs Alabama Crimson Tide
Eddie:  If RBA is any indication, this game should be as good as advertised.  (6) Alabama's perception by RBA has been shifted lately by a close game against Auburn.  (4) Florida has gotten better since its issues against Arkansas and Mississippi State.  [Insert joke about referees being less obvious here.]  Alabama plays cleaner than Florida, committing fewer turnovers, getting more takeaways, and suffering fewer penalties.  If Alabama can get the offense rolling and make a few big plays to Julio Jones to keep the safeties honest, they can win, but if they play like they have during the second half of the season, Florida takes the title.  RBA says Florida, 20-14, but with only 50.9% confidence.
Justin: You don't need us to tell you to watch this game.  (1) Florida boasts the nation's second-most efficient offense at 29.2 PPH, losing by a nose to the (3) Longhorns (29.8 PPH) but well ahead of (4) Alabama, clocking in at 23.5 PPH.  The bad news for the Crimson Tide is that this puts them just ahead of (49) Florida State with a 23.2 PPH efficiency.  The good news for 'bama is that their defense is the fourth-best in the nation, allowing only 8.9 PPH.  Unfortunately for the Tide, the Gators are one of the three teams ahead of them, allowing only 8.4 PPH.  All of this adds up to a rough game for Alabama, with TFG predicting a 31-24 victory for Tebow and the Gators, punching their ticket for the title game.

Cincinnati Bearcats at Pittsburgh Panthers
Justin: TFG holds the (17) Bearcats in low esteem, a full eight places behind the second-lowest undefeated team, (9) Boise State.  Cincinnati has not mounted an efficient campaign this year and has played a sub-0.500 strength-of-schedule.  The quality gap between the Bearcats and (15) LSU is as large as the gap between the Tigers and (8) Virginia Tech.  Fortunately for Cincinnati (18) Pittsburgh has played a similarly weak slate and performed about as well (i.e., okay but not fantastic).  Cincinnati plays a slightly more up-tempo game than Pittsburgh -- 172 plays per game compared to 165 -- but other than that these teams near-mirrors of each other efficiency-wise.  TFG is calling this one a coin toss with the slight edge going to Cincinnati: 31-27, Bearcats, with a 50.6% chance of being right.
Eddie:  Expect a clean game with that matches an efficient (12) Pittsburgh running game against an extremely good (5) Cincinnati passing game.  Neither team makes a lot of mistakes, averaging fewer than one turnover per game. Pitt is a little better at taking the ball away, though.  Home field advantage says this one is close.  Pittsburgh tries to slow the game down by grinding out long drives on the ground, but Cincinnati pulls off the undefeated season 21-20.

The "No, You're An Idiot" Game of the Week

West Virginia Mountaineers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights.
Eddie:  Do you go with the traditionally downtrodden (37) Rutgers or Bill Stewart-coached (24) West Virginia?  The real idiot is anybody who claims to know how this game turns out at all.  Neither option is particularly appealing in a game that RBA predicts with only 54.6% confidence.  West Virginia is a little more consistent on the scoreboard, but unfortunately, that's because they consistently turn the ball over.  Rutgers averages 2.6 takeaways per game to match WVU's 2.2 turnovers per game.  Expect West Virginia to play better in all facets of the game but keep shooting themselves in the foot as Rutgers squeaks by in the home upset, 25-24.
Justin: Idiot games were slim pickins this week, as RBA and TFG disagree on only two games and we thought it would be tough to get people worked up over (105) Florida-Atlantic and (108) Florida-International.  Instead we have the (29) Mountaineers visiting the (36) Scarlet Knights.  West Virginia has played better ball on both sides against stronger opposition than the Knights.  The lines for this game give a slight nod to Rutgers, but TFG likes the Mountaineers.  West Virginia plays more efficient offense   by 0.4 PPH and more efficient defense by 1.0 PPH.  It's a narrow margin but should give the Mountaineers a slim nod in this matchup.  Home field advantage isn't as big a factor in December as it is in September, so Rutgers won't get a big bump from playing at home.  WVU takes this one, 27-24.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Clemson Tigers
Justin: All signs point to the winner of this game earning the right to lose to the Big Ten runner-up.  This game will also tell us how far the (21) Tigers and (24) Yellow Jackets have come since the start of the season.  Tech defeated Clemson back in September, 30-27, in Atlanta.  As far as TFG is concerned, though, that game (a) is now irrelevant, and (b) what does count falls under the category of a victory for Clemson once home field advantage is factored out.  Now that 10 games have passed and they're playing on a neutral field, can Clemson put it together and pull off the victory?  TFG says "yes, but just barely."  Final score: Clemson 34, Georgia Tech 31 in a game that shows little defense but some explosive offense.
Eddie:  As dominating as (17) Georgia Tech has been on offense, they sure didn't show it last week against Georgia, so RBA thinks they're not that good against quality competition.  (13) Clemson has  played pretty well this year but has been unlucky in close losses.  When comparing the two teams on paper, Clemson's offense and defense simply don't fall off as quickly against tougher competition.  Clemson is a little more clumsy with the ball, but Georgia Tech isn't quite as good at forcing turnovers.  They've played a close game once already, so expect Clemson to be ready to stop the flexbone and win a good one, 28-24.

Full predictions after the jump.

Week 14: Thursday Predictions

As per usual, my picks are in blue, Eddie's are in yellow. Just two games tonight, but one will decide who goes to the Rose Bowl. Currently both TFG and RBA agree that it'll be Oregon, but the Ducks have little margin for error.

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(12)	Oregon	31	(25)	Oregon St.	27	66.4	(9)	Oregon	34	(20)	Oregon St.	24	60.6
(116)	Western Kentucky	27	(103)	Arkansas St.	38	75.8	(119)	Western Kentucky	27	(108)	Arkansas St.	31	70.0

Week 14: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps:  Ohio (+26, 51 to 25); Oklahoma (+15, 34 to 19); South Carolina (+14, 64 to 50)

Biggest drops:  Temple (-18, 16 to 34); North Carolina (-13, 22 to 35); Mississippi, South Florida, Florida State, Duke (-10).

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 14: Top 25 -- RBA

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS	Off Pts	Def Pts	Pace
001	--	Texas	0.9873	0.4815	24.4	8.6	88.4
002	+2	TCU	0.9873	0.4516	23.2	7.3	82.2
003	-1	Boise St.	0.9873	0.4344	26.8	11.8	82.7
004	-1	Florida	0.9873	0.5000	22.1	6.6	77.3
005	+1	Cincinnati	0.9783	0.4412	21.6	12.0	83.2
006	+1	Alabama	0.9485	0.5161	20.0	6.9	80.7
007	+5	Virginia Tech	0.9342	0.5615	20.7	9.2	80.2
008	--	Iowa	0.9307	0.5294	15.1	9.8	79.9
009	+4	Oregon	0.9304	0.5484	22.4	12.2	88.6
010	-1	Ohio St.	0.9277	0.5000	18.2	7.6	80.6
011	-1	Penn State	0.9217	0.4876	17.1	7.9	79.4
012	-7	Pittsburgh	0.9095	0.4712	19.9	12.1	78.9
013	+1	Clemson	0.8520	0.5454	18.5	12.4	83.9
014	+7	Stanford	0.8468	0.4733	22.6	16.2	80.2
015	+3	Texas Tech	0.8458	0.5120	20.5	11.8	92.3
016	+1	LSU	0.8458	0.4923	16.0	9.6	80.4
017	-6	Georgia Tech	0.8451	0.4750	22.2	15.8	78.0
018	NA	BYU	0.8246	0.4254	19.7	13.8	82.8
019	NA	Oklahoma	0.8130	0.6048	18.4	8.0	90.3
020	+3	Oregon St.	0.8122	0.5182	19.8	13.6	83.9
021	+4	Nebraska	0.8120	0.4470	14.6	7.2	81.7
022	-3	Miami-FL	0.8112	0.5508	19.5	13.1	82.5
023	-8	Houston	0.8087	0.4146	21.7	16.5	95.0
024	NA	West Virginia	0.8044	0.5189	16.2	12.0	82.5
025	NA	Ohio	0.7954	0.3952	16.7	14.6	83.8

New entries:  BYU, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Ohio

Dropped out:  Arkansas, Oklahoma State, Temple, North Carolina

The top four teams -- (1a) Texas, (1b) TCU, (1c) Boise State, and (1d) Florida -- are statistically indistinguishable.  (5) Cincinnati is only behind by 0.01.  (6) Alabama's struggles against 4-loss SEC teams are starting to take their toll in the rankings.  Will they be able to step it up this weekend against Florida when it matters most?

The surprise team in my top 10 is (7) Virginia Tech, who flattened (75) Virginia over the weekend.  Virginia Tech has has never had a defensive problem and laying 42 on their in-state rival helps a lot.  The surprise fall comes from (23) Houston, who dropped eight spots despite scoring 73 against a helpless (111) Rice.  I'll need to look into this one a little further to see exactly how that happened.

I give Justin a lot of grief over TFG's Oklahoma lovefest, but even RBA is ranking them in the top 25 this week after shellacking Oklahoma State.  Since I'm this week's idiot, I'll refrain from criticizing how a 7-5 team is at his #6 spot.  I'll leave that to Farkers, who will likely do a better job than me, anyway.

Week 14: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Ohio (+12, 72 to 60); South Carolina (+10, 49 to 39); Houston (+8, 43 to 35).

Biggest drops: Navy (-10, 32 to 42); South Florida (-10, 62 to 72); Oklahoma State (-8, 23 to 31); Marshall (-8, 76 to 84).

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 14: Top 25 -- TFG

TCU played a weak opponent and Florida was the only of the top-tier team to really deal with their in-state rival.

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS	Off Pts	Def Pts	Pace
001	--	Florida	0.9666	0.5884	29.2	8.4	77.7
002	+1	TCU	0.9489	0.4210	25.9	8.8	84.2
003	-1	Texas	0.9373	0.5377	29.8	10.9	86.2
004	--	Alabama	0.9333	0.6076	23.5	8.9	80.5
005	--	Ohio St.	0.9252	0.5251	21.1	8.3	83.2
006	+2	Oklahoma	0.9084	0.6917	21.5	9.2	90.2
007	-1	Penn State	0.8943	0.5178	20.9	9.5	82.1
008	+1	Virginia Tech	0.8908	0.5772	24.3	11.2	81.1
009	-2	Boise St.	0.8895	0.3920	27.2	12.6	84.8
010	+3	USC	0.8569	0.5694	20.8	10.7	85.7
011	-1	Texas Tech	0.8429	0.5915	25.9	13.9	90.0
012	--	Oregon	0.8420	0.6033	23.0	12.4	93.1
013	+2	Iowa	0.8268	0.5524	19.6	11.0	82.2
014	-3	Nebraska	0.8262	0.5078	19.3	10.8	82.0
015	-1	LSU	0.8209	0.5890	19.7	11.2	82.5
016	+4	Utah	0.7816	0.4430	20.4	12.7	86.7
017	--	Cincinnati	0.7733	0.4739	22.3	14.2	86.3
018	+1	Pittsburgh	0.7691	0.5181	21.5	13.8	82.8
019	+2	BYU	0.7685	0.4350	22.7	14.6	84.9
020	+4	Miami-FL	0.7549	0.6315	21.9	14.5	83.8
021	-5	Clemson	0.7483	0.5942	20.2	13.5	84.7
022	NA	Arkansas	0.7363	0.6555	25.7	17.6	84.8
023	-5	Mississippi	0.7319	0.6219	21.5	14.8	82.7
024	-2	Georgia Tech	0.7304	0.6120	26.2	18.1	79.5
025	NA	Oregon St.	0.7293	0.5356	20.9	14.5	87.1

New entries: Arkansas, Oregon State.

Dropped out: North Carolina, Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma continues to hang around the top 10 by virtue of defensive performances against BYU, Miami-FL, and Texas.  Lost on the system, though, is the fact that the Sooners lost all of those games.  Throw in their offensive steamrolling of Texas A&M, Kansas State, and Tulsa, and you have Bob Stoops' playbook on how to get into the top 10 of computer rankings while just hovering above 0.500 in actual play.  Boise State continues to drift downwards thanks to uninspired play against poor opponents.  Utah and Arkansas lose but climb in the rankings thanks to hanging on until OT.

TCU continues to get it done against inferior competition, whereas Texas and Alabama struggled to put away middle-of-the-pack opponents.  Right now the tickets to the title game are Florida's and Texas's to lose.  If Texas does slip up, however, will the AP voters actually put TCU in the title game against the SEC champions?

Week 13: Summary

Another relatively upset-free week in college football, another good showing for the TFG numbers, another so-so week for RBA, and another 16 games before we go bowling.  TFG went 39-10 this week (79.6%) compared with 34-15 (69.4%) for RBA.  Notable "what-the-heck-happened" games include red-hot UNC losing to North Carolina State, Houston Nutt blowing the big game against Mississippi State, and Navy forgetting to show up in the second half against Hawaii.  On to the summary.

Games of the Week

Utah Utes at Brigham Young Cougars
Justin said: The Utes are thin at the running back position, but the good news is for them it's always been about defense.  If they can stop BYU's offense -- similar in adjusted efficiency to (12) Oregon -- they'll pull out the victory.
Eddie said: RBA favors BYU over Utah by a single point, 28-27, in what should be one of the best games of the day.  The winner of the turnover battle wins the Holy War.
What happened: Well, this is about as close as it gets.  BYU wins by 3 in overtime.  Utah gained more yards (298-265) got more first downs (17-14) and ran more plays (75-68).  Unfortunately the Utes just couldn't punch it into the endzone, settling for five FGs, including a crucial one in OT.  Utah also saw a lot of yellow, racking up over 100 yards in penalties.  In the end it all added up to the Utes falling short.

Georgia Bulldogs at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Eddie said: Barring a turnover-ridden game, the Yellow Jackets will out-play the Bulldogs on both sides of the ball, win decisively 41-24, and send Georgia defensive coordinator Willie Martinez to the unemployment office.
Justin said: I remain skeptical about Georgia's ability to [stop Tech's offense], so look for Tech to walk away as 38-31 winners.
What happened: This was one of the slowest games all weekend, seeing only 146 plays.  Tech never got its offense going and trailed the entire game. Combined with Clemson's loss to South Carolina, things aren't looking good for the ACC as both title game contenders were taken down by middle-of-the-pack SEC teams.  The more things change ...

The "No, You're An Idiot" Game of the Week

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Duke Blue Devils
Justin said: Wake Forest has been playing well, but against tough competition.  Expect the Demon Deacons to put it all together this weekend and pull off the 27-24 victory.
Eddie said: RBA is picking Duke over Wake Forest, 31-24, in a game where the Blue Devils simply make fewer mistakes than the Demon Deacons.
What happened: Looks like the idiot tally is knotted at 1 after this defense-free showdown.  The two teams combined for 954 yards and 79 points, with Duke falling back to earth to finish the season at 5-7.  There were no major mistakes by either team, with the exception of Duke QB Thaddeus Lewis throwing a pick-six on a 4th-and-2 from their own 33.  Hey, at least Duke basketball is gearing up for their traditional November romp before underacheiving in the NCAAs.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Utah State Aggies at Idaho Vandals
Eddie: Unlike the Broncos, the Aggies' sport one of the worst defenses in the country.  In this one, the Vandals simply suck less and are playing at home.  RBA says Idaho over Utah State, 34-20 with 73.2% odds.
Justin: This game isn't likely to be described in retrospect as "pretty", but expect a lot of scoring and for the game to be decided in Utah State's favor on a late drive.  Final score: 35-31.
What happened: Sixty minutes, 195 plays, and 101 combined points.  Utah State went up 45-42 on a 75-yard reception with nine minutes to go.  Idaho would cough up the ball on the next drive and the Aggies would tack on a second TD 20 seconds after the first to go up 52-42.  Idaho would score again but couldn't get the onsides kick.  For those keeping track at home, Idaho put up an offensive efficiency of 25.1 PPH (e.g., Texas-Tech-esque) and lost.  Interesting footnote: Utah State won despite racking up 187 yards of penalties, and that is not a typo.

Week 13: Saturday Predictions

Full predictions after the jump.  Justin's are in blue, Eddie's are in yellow

Week 13: Saturday Matchups

Once again we give you two games to watch, the coin toss game of the week, and the "No, You're An Idiot" game, in which Eddie and I explain how the other is just plain wrong.  Currently Eddie has been correct once, and I have yet to be correct.

Games of the Week

Utah Utes at Brigham Young Cougars
Justin: This game is a perfect example of why it's better to lose early in the season.  The 21st-ranked Cougars were crushed at home by (3) TCU 38-7 a month ago, whereas (20) Utah received their 55-28 shellacking from TCU on the road two weeks ago.  Both have similar strength of schedule and both have identical records.  But BYU is ranked four spots higher in the BCS and is a 7-point favorite.  The TFG numbers disagree, giving Utah a 4-point edge in this game, but only as a 53% favorite.  The Utes are thin at the running back position, but the good news is for them it's always been about defense.  If they can stop BYU's offense -- similar in adjusted efficiency to (12) Oregon -- they'll pull out the victory.
Eddie: RBA considers this a near toss-up because the teams have identical SoS-adjusted strengths.  (28) BYU is expected to put up 16.1 PPH, whereas (29) Utah should produce 17.1 PPH.  They have nearly identical tendencies with takeaways and penalties.  BYU tends to turn the ball over once more per game, but they're playing at home.  RBA favors BYU over Utah by a single point, 28-27, in what should be one of the best games of the day.  The winner of the turnover battle wins the Holy War.

Georgia Bulldogs at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Eddie: I love Paul Johnson and what he has done for (11) Georgia Tech.  They absolutely flatten teams with the flexbone, but RBA keeps them out of the top 10 because their defense has been terrible.  How bad?  I'm talking about Baylor-level bad, surrendering 15.4 PPH to average opponents.  On the bright side, they're consistently bad, so we expect similar performance against a (59) Georgia team looking to put the defensive ineptitude of the 2009 season behind them.  Barring a turnover-ridden game, the Yellow Jackets will out-play the Bulldogs on both sides of the ball, win decisively 41-24, and send Georgia defensive coordinator Willie Martinez to the unemployment office.
Justin: The (22) Yellow Jackets possess the third-most efficient offense in the nation behind only (1) Florida and (2) Texas.  Why, then, does TFG think so poorly of Tech that it has them 20 spots behind the Longhorns?  Defense, defense, defense.  And those three words are about as much defense as the 38th-ranked Bulldogs are going to see this weekend.  This is going to be a slow but high-scoring game, as both Tech and the Dawgs possess exceedingly average defenses; think Michigan or Washington for adjusted-efficiency analogs.  The Bulldogs' game plan needs to be all about slowing down Tech's offense because they shouldn't need to worry too much about scoring against the Yellow Jackets.  However, I remain skeptical about Georgia's ability to do just that, so look for Tech to walk away as 38-31 winners.

The "No, You're An Idiot" Game of the Week

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Duke Blue Devils
Justin: This didn't turn out so well for me last week, but I've got a better feeling about this game.  Mainly because my system picked (63) Wake Forest and Eddie's picked (81) Duke.  Yes, for football.  The Blue Devils had a reasonable streak in the middle of the season, defeating Maryland, North Carolina State, and Virginia.  In restrospect, however, defeating the 59th, 80th, and 89th ranked teams in the nation does not a BCS contender make, and the Blue Devils have slipped over the last several weeks.  Wake Forest has been playing well, but against tough competition.  Expect the Demon Deacons to put it all together this weekend and pull off the 27-24 victory.
Eddie: Newsflash!  (88) Wake Forest falls in the same category as (113) Maryland, (107) NC State, and (72) Virginia.  As miserable as (74) Duke has been lately, Wake Forest has been even worse.  Duke should put up 16.4 PPH against Wake's 14.5 PPH.  Duke also turns the ball over less frequently, takes the ball away more frequently, commits fewer penalties, and plays at home.  RBA is picking Duke over Wake Forest, 31-24, in a game where the Blue Devils simply make fewer mistakes than the Demon Deacons.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Utah State Aggies at Idaho Vandals
Eddie: (66) Idaho has made serious improvements since last year but has been run over by everybody with a solid pulse, losing to Washington, Nevada, Boise State, and Fresno State by a staggering score of 206-114.  Luckily for them, (102) Utah State has been on life support for a couple of seasons now.  Idaho has been very, very sloppy on occasion, surrendering as many as seven turnovers against Boise State.  Unlike the Broncos, the Aggies' sport one of the worst defenses in the country.  In this one, the Vandals simply suck less and are playing at home.  RBA says Idaho over Utah State, 34-20 with 73.2% odds.
Justin: This matchup isn't going to be on ESPN Prime-Time anytime soon, but this should be a good game.  The line has (90) Idaho as three-point favorites, but TFG likes (86) Utah State for the upset.  Neither team plays anything really really resembling "defense", but at least the Aggies have an adjusted efficiency resembling that of Georgia (19.8 PPH versus 19.2 PPH) whereas the Vandals have a porous defense with an AdjE of 25.6 PPH, good for 9th-worst in FBS.  The Aggies, however, make up for it with an offensive efficiency of 14.5 PPH.  This game isn't likely to be described in retrospect as "pretty", but expect a lot of scoring and for the game to be decided in Utah State's favor on a late drive.  Final score: 35-31.

Full predictions available here.

Week 13: Friday Predictions

Thirteen games on the Friday of week thirteen.  Let's hope that neither Alabama nor Boise State nor Cincinnati are superstitious teams.  A loss would almost certainly destroy Alabama's chances at a trip to the national title game. Cincinnati needs to win out at hope for the misfortune of others to get into serious title contention talk.  Thanks to the dominant performance of TCU, even if Boise State wins out they'll need some good PR to leap past BCS regulars Penn State and Virginia Tech and Big Six notables like Iowa and Oklahoma State.

TFG and RBA agree on all games except Wyoming/Colorado State and Kent State/Buffalo.

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(106)	Akron	38	(116)	Eastern Michigan	27	72.3	(110)	Akron	31	(119)	Eastern Michigan	17	77.5
(34)	Auburn	24	(4)	Alabama	31	90.2	(46)	Auburn	10	(7)	Alabama	28	88.4
(7)	Boise St.	38	(47)	Nevada	31	85.5	(2)	Boise St.	45	(35)	Nevada	21	81.7
(74)	Bowling Green	38	(98)	Toledo	31	68.9	(61)	Bowling Green	38	(86)	Toledo	24	70.2
(46)	Central Michigan	31	(60)	Northern Ill.	27	59.4	(43)	Central Michigan	27	(55)	Northern Ill.	20	65.1
(17)	Cincinnati	31	(78)	Illinois	24	87.4	(6)	Cincinnati	42	(95)	Illinois	7	96.6
(91)	Colorado St.	31	(107)	Wyoming	27	65.0	(106)	Colorado St.	24	(85)	Wyoming	25	52.8
(75)	Colorado	20	(11)	Nebraska	31	89.8	(97)	Colorado	17	(25)	Nebraska	31	78.9
(101)	Kent St.	27	(79)	Buffalo	31	69.2	(93)	Kent St.	25	(83)	Buffalo	24	54.8
(83)	Louisville	24	(41)	Rutgers	31	78.1	(81)	Louisville	17	(38)	Rutgers	24	64.9
(72)	Ohio	27	(61)	Temple	31	58.5	(51)	Ohio	31	(16)	Temple	32	53.5
(71)	Tulsa	38	(103)	Memphis	27	76.7	(87)	Tulsa	31	(100)	Memphis	21	64.9
(30)	West Virginia	27	(19)	Pittsburgh	31	60.4	(27)	West Virginia	20	(4)	Pittsburgh	24	62.6