Week 6: Saturday Predictions

112 Akron 26  79 Ohio 31

111 Akron 24 105 Ohio 31

1 Alabama 47 NA Georgia State 9

2 Alabama 45 125 Georgia State 0

21 Arizona St. 35  23 Notre Dame 32

22 Arizona St. 31  14 Notre Dame 28

51 Auburn 27  50 Mississippi 26

54 Auburn 24  19 Mississippi 28

6 Baylor 43  61 West Virginia 27

21 Baylor 42  61 West Virginia 21

76 Boston College 32 101 Army 24

93 Boston College 28 102 Army 17

68 Bowling Green 31 123 Massachusetts 15

55 Bowling Green 38 123 Massachusetts 10

90 Buffalo 32 117 Eastern Michigan 23

113 Buffalo 34 118 Eastern Michigan 21

67 California 28  64 Washington St. 26

69 California 28  62 Washington St. 27

97 Colorado 21   2 Oregon 42

103 Colorado 10   3 Oregon 56

10 Florida 25  42 Arkansas 19

8 Florida 34  36 Arkansas 20

3 Florida St. 35  53 Maryland 23

1 Florida St. 41  58 Maryland 20

104 Hawaii 26  84 SJSU 28

109 Hawaii 24  71 SJSU 34

119 Idaho 29  62 Fresno St. 42

122 Idaho 21  49 Fresno St. 41

66 Indiana 28  13 Penn State 33

65 Indiana 24  20 Penn State 34

22 Iowa 23  35 Michigan St. 19

32 Iowa 20  23 Michigan St. 21

95 Kansas 22  27 Texas Tech 31

104 Kansas 17  41 Texas Tech 38

96 Kent St. 28  57 Northern Ill. 34

89 Kent St. 24  53 Northern Ill. 34

91 LA-Lafayette 33 109 Texas State 29

76 LA-Lafayette 34  90 Texas State 24

78 Marshall 36  89 UTSA 31

80 Marshall 35  87 UTSA 27

77 Memphis 21  18 UCF 29

116 Memphis 13  24 UCF 38

17 Miami-FL 33  48 Georgia Tech 25

11 Miami-FL 28  35 Georgia Tech 21

121 Miami-OH 28 113 Central Michigan 30

120 Miami-OH 27 107 Central Michigan 38

33 Michigan 33  71 Minnesota 24

15 Michigan 38  57 Minnesota 17

80 Middle Tenn. 25  47 East Carolina 30

95 Middle Tenn. 24  64 East Carolina 34

38 Mississippi St. 24  12 LSU 28

50 Mississippi St. 20   6 LSU 34

88 Navy 31  92 Air Force 27

88 Navy 34  97 Air Force 21

32 Nebraska 34  55 Illinois 28

33 Nebraska 38  85 Illinois 20

110 New Mexico 35 120 New Mexico St. 28

108 New Mexico 38 121 New Mexico St. 24

30 Northwestern 31  15 Ohio St. 33

31 Northwestern 28  13 Ohio St. 31

7 Oklahoma 31  28 TCU 24

4 Oklahoma 38  38 TCU 17

25 Oklahoma St. 35  34 Kansas St. 32

16 Oklahoma St. 34  18 Kansas St. 27

73 SMU 25  49 Rutgers 28

70 SMU 24  44 Rutgers 28

19 South Carolina 32  85 Kentucky 19

5 South Carolina 42  81 Kentucky 6

74 South Florida 19  41 Cincinnati 23

82 South Florida 20  28 Cincinnati 31

118 Southern Miss. 29 122 FIU 24

115 Southern Miss. 27 119 FIU 28

9 Stanford 30  16 Washington 25

10 Stanford 31  37 Washington 21

43 Syracuse 28   5 Clemson 33

56 Syracuse 24  17 Clemson 31

102 Temple 19  11 Louisville 33

86 Temple 17  30 Louisville 38

63 Tennessee 31  14 Georgia 39

46 Tennessee 27  12 Georgia 38

86 Toledo 33 116 Western Michigan 25

78 Toledo 38 110 Western Michigan 24

114 Troy 34 107 South Alabama 35

112 Troy 34  96 South Alabama 27

100 Tulane 27  82 North Texas 30

117 Tulane 24  91 North Texas 28

72 Tulsa 27  60 Rice 28

77 Tulsa 28  73 Rice 27

106 UAB 32 124 FL-Atlantic 19

106 UAB 41 124 FL-Atlantic 17

105 UTEP 32  93 LA Tech 34

101 UTEP 31  75 LA Tech 28

54 Vanderbilt 29  45 Missouri 28

43 Vanderbilt 31  34 Missouri 27

83 Virginia 28  69 Ball St. 27

74 Virginia 27  67 Ball St. 24

37 Virginia Tech 29  52 North Carolina 26

52 Virginia Tech 27  48 North Carolina 24

108 Wake Forest 20  40 North Carolina St. 29

98 Wake Forest 17  47 North Carolina St. 35

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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Week 6: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Oct 6 03:59:05 2013

Ohio	43	Akron	3	Final
Georgia State	3	Alabama	45	Final
FL-Atlantic	37	UAB	23	Final
Notre Dame	37	Arizona St.	34	Final
Mississippi	22	Auburn	30	Final
West Virginia	42	Baylor	73	Final
Army	27	Boston College	48	Final
Massachusetts	7	Bowling Green	28	Final
Eastern Michigan	14	Buffalo	42	Final
Washington St.	44	California	22	Final
Oregon	57	Colorado	16	Final
Maryland	0	Florida St.	63	Final
Arkansas	10	Florida	30	Final
SJSU	37	Hawaii	27	Final
Fresno St.	61	Idaho	14	Final
Penn State	24	Indiana	44	Final
Michigan St.	26	Iowa	14	Final
Texas Tech	54	Kansas	16	Final
Northern Ill.	38	Kent St.	24	Final
UTSA	10	Marshall	34	Final
UCF	24	Memphis	17	Final
Central Michigan	21	Miami-OH	9	Final
Georgia Tech	30	Miami-FL	45	Final
Minnesota	13	Michigan	42	Final
East Carolina	24	Middle Tenn.	17	Final
LSU	59	Mississippi St.	26	Final
Illinois	19	Nebraska	39	Final
New Mexico St.	17	New Mexico	66	Final
Ohio St.	40	Northwestern	30	Final
Kansas St.	29	Oklahoma St.	33	Final
TCU	17	Oklahoma	20	Final
Kentucky	28	South Carolina	35	Final
Cincinnati	20	South Florida	26	Final
Rutgers	55	SMU	52	Final
FIU	24	Southern Miss.	23	Final
Texas State	24	LA-Lafayette	48	Final
Washington	28	Stanford	31	Final
Clemson	49	Syracuse	14	Final
Louisville	30	Temple	7	Final
Georgia	34	Tennessee	31	Final
LA Tech	38	UTEP	35	Final
Western Michigan	20	Toledo	47	Final
South Alabama	33	Troy	34	Final
North Texas	21	Tulane	24	Final
Rice	30	Tulsa	27	Final
Air Force	10	Navy	28	Final
Missouri	51	Vanderbilt	28	Final
North Carolina	17	Virginia Tech	27	Final
Ball St.	48	Virginia	27	Final
North Carolina St.	13	Wake Forest	28	Final

Week 6: Friday Predictions

70 SDSU 30  81 Nevada 26

60 SDSU 38  84 Nevada 24

36 Utah St. 25  26 BYU 24

27 Utah St. 24  25 BYU 17

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 6: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sat Oct 5 00:54:04 2013

Nevada	44	SDSU	44	Final
BYU	31	Utah St.	14	Final

Week 6: Thursday Predictions

59 Iowa St. 31  46 Texas 29

63 Iowa St. 24  39 Texas 31

115 LA-Monroe 28  99 Western Kentucky 29

100 LA-Monroe 27  94 Western Kentucky 28

29 Utah 32  20 UCLA 31

51 Utah 27  26 UCLA 31

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 6: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Fri Oct 4 01:59:03 2013

Texas	31	Iowa St.	30	Final
Western Kentucky	31	LA-Monroe	10	Final
UCLA	34	Utah	27	Final

Week 6: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Iowa (0.171); Washington St. (0.114); South Alabama (0.103); Minnesota (0.076); Colorado (0.056)

Biggest drops: Troy (-0.162); Western Michigan (-0.112); West Virginia (-0.102); Bowling Green (-0.100); LA-Monroe (-0.070)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 6: Top 25 -- RBA

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	+2	Florida St.	0.922	0.548	21	26.4	3	11.0	15	165.4	84
2	-1	Alabama	0.903	0.550	17	24.1	8	6.6	1	156.2	125
3	-1	Oregon	0.901	0.532	50	28.8	1	9.3	7	177.2	3
4	+1	Oklahoma	0.866	0.549	19	22.7	13	8.3	3	171.9	16
5	+1	South Carolina	0.850	0.545	27	22.7	12	8.9	5	158.1	124
6	-2	LSU	0.841	0.551	15	26.2	4	11.8	20	160.5	117
7	+5	Texas A&M	0.814	0.556	8	25.6	5	12.5	28	173.8	10
8	+2	Florida	0.794	0.560	5	17.8	48	8.3	2	160.8	116
9	--	Wisconsin	0.793	0.535	48	22.2	17	10.8	12	161.5	113
10	+1	Stanford	0.778	0.540	34	22.5	15	11.0	14	166.9	65
11	+8	Miami-FL	0.778	0.554	10	23.5	10	12.5	29	162.7	107
12	-4	Georgia	0.772	0.547	23	24.5	7	13.6	41	160.3	118
13	--	Ohio St.	0.768	0.528	54	22.8	11	12.6	30	160.1	119
14	+1	Notre Dame	0.765	0.568	2	17.5	54	9.7	9	164.2	99
15	-1	Michigan	0.756	0.544	28	21.6	19	13.0	34	166.3	73
16	-9	Oklahoma St.	0.749	0.553	12	21.2	20	13.7	42	174.8	6
17	+3	Clemson	0.749	0.530	53	23.5	9	11.3	16	168.3	45
18	-2	Kansas St.	0.744	0.535	45	22.6	14	13.9	45	165.6	82
19	NA	Mississippi	0.736	0.535	47	20.8	22	12.1	21	163.8	101
20	+1	Penn State	0.732	0.535	46	18.2	40	9.6	8	164.6	96
21	+1	Baylor	0.722	0.561	4	27.9	2	14.5	50	174.7	8
22	-4	Arizona St.	0.720	0.539	37	24.9	6	14.7	51	174.7	7
23	--	Michigan St.	0.713	0.546	25	13.6	91	8.5	4	167.0	64
24	NA	UCF	0.711	0.460	97	21.0	21	12.7	31	163.3	104
25	-8	BYU	0.710	0.483	77	14.9	81	9.1	6	169.6	27

Rankings through games of 2013-09-29

New entries: Mississippi, UCF.

Dropped out: Utah St., UCLA.

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 6: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Buffalo (0.139); Northern Ill. (0.125); Boise St. (0.116); Houston (0.112); Boston College (0.111)

Biggest drops: Connecticut (-0.197); Washington St. (-0.130); SMU (-0.109); Navy (-0.097); Middle Tenn. (-0.094)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 6: Top 25 -- TFG

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	0.969	0.653	15	27.6	7	7.5	1	149.2	123
2	--	Oregon	0.943	0.554	40	30.3	3	10.5	6	176.5	24
3	--	Florida St.	0.894	0.511	55	27.8	6	12.5	19	157.4	109
4	--	Texas A&M	0.893	0.727	5	34.4	1	15.5	50	185.0	7
5	+8	Clemson	0.889	0.620	18	25.2	9	11.5	12	174.0	29
6	+3	Baylor	0.884	0.421	88	31.7	2	14.8	43	184.8	8
7	+1	Oklahoma	0.880	0.566	35	22.9	18	10.8	10	165.7	67
8	-3	Wisconsin	0.880	0.554	41	21.8	24	10.3	5	156.1	112
9	+5	Stanford	0.877	0.567	34	24.8	12	11.8	14	159.2	103
10	-3	Florida	0.877	0.596	27	17.7	54	8.5	2	152.2	122
11	-5	Louisville	0.867	0.282	119	24.0	13	11.9	15	155.3	117
12	-2	LSU	0.863	0.605	24	25.1	11	12.6	20	162.5	85
13	-2	Penn State	0.856	0.489	67	19.1	42	9.8	4	170.8	40
14	+3	Georgia	0.848	0.723	7	29.5	4	15.5	51	167.6	57
15	+6	Ohio St.	0.848	0.565	36	25.4	8	13.3	26	167.2	59
16	+8	Washington	0.845	0.678	13	20.2	35	10.7	9	170.6	42
17	-1	Miami-FL	0.822	0.377	97	25.1	10	14.1	33	166.8	62
18	-6	UCF	0.818	0.383	95	23.0	17	13.1	24	155.6	114
19	-1	South Carolina	0.817	0.726	6	21.7	25	12.4	18	162.1	91
20	+2	UCLA	0.799	0.498	62	22.0	22	13.1	25	178.3	19
21	+2	Arizona St.	0.793	0.773	2	29.2	5	17.6	70	179.4	16
22	NA	Iowa	0.789	0.450	78	17.9	51	10.9	11	159.8	99
23	-4	Notre Dame	0.774	0.610	23	20.4	32	12.8	23	162.5	86
24	-4	USC	0.759	0.614	19	19.7	39	12.8	22	154.0	120
25	-10	Oklahoma St.	0.755	0.562	37	22.6	20	14.8	41	192.2	2

Rankings through games of 2013-09-29

New entries: Iowa.

Dropped out: Michigan.

Alabama and Oregon continue to separate themselves from the pack, while everyone from Florida State to Washington are in a pretty tight cluster. The gap between Oregon and Florida State is as large as the gap from Florida State to Washington.

One thing to note is that during our countdown of the BCS champions a few years ago, we noted that pretty much all of the champions had a top-3 offense or defense, and a top-10 squad on the other side of the ball. The two teams that currently meet that criteria? Alabama and Oregon.

Further down the list, Penn State is Penn State again, as they have a top-5 defense but a barely-above-average offense. The Nittany Lions are what Michigan State could be, if the Spartans got their act together. South Carolina continues their plunge from the top 10, while Iowa makes their first appearance in the top 25 for a long time.

Ohio State continues their slow climb up the top 25. In many ways they got lucky against Wisconsin: if the Badgers hadn't missed a chip shot field goal and had managed to snag that interception before halftime -- one play before the Buckeyes got a touchdown -- that would have represented a 10-point swing. It's still certainly possible that Ohio State would've won, but there was a huge amount of luck involved. We're not even counting the muffed punt that got called back for an inexplicable formation penalty against Wisconsin -- the Badgers shot themselves in the foot a lot this game -- but right now Ohio State just isn't on the same level as the Crimson Tide or Ducks just yet. They've improved by 2.6 PPH on offense and 1.7 PPH on defense so far this year, but as of this week they're still walking a tightrope.

Full conference play is starting up, so we'll start to get the full picture of each team over the next two weeks. Next week is the start of our annual conference projections, while we'll also take a look at the remaining undefeated teams.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.