Week 3: Top 25 -- TFG

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	0.981	0.638	12	39.4	1	8.1	1	147.7	119
2	--	LSU	0.947	0.648	7	32.7	5	10.3	2	155.6	110
3	+1	Boise St.	0.889	0.503	68	32.1	6	14.0	7	161.2	75
4	+1	Oklahoma	0.867	0.567	33	24.9	24	11.8	3	177.3	12
5	-2	Wisconsin	0.862	0.550	48	36.5	2	17.5	30	152.1	118
6	+2	Stanford	0.854	0.505	66	33.8	3	16.7	22	157.2	104
7	--	TCU	0.850	0.424	88	33.3	4	16.7	23	157.5	101
8	-2	Oregon	0.839	0.571	32	30.5	9	15.7	16	182.2	5
9	+2	Michigan St.	0.826	0.585	25	25.8	20	13.8	5	160.8	77
10	+6	South Carolina	0.811	0.566	34	27.1	19	15.1	12	155.0	112
11	+3	Florida St.	0.810	0.558	41	27.3	17	15.3	14	154.1	115
12	+11	Texas	0.805	0.441	80	24.0	31	13.6	4	159.3	91
13	+2	Ohio St.	0.799	0.511	62	27.4	16	15.8	18	158.5	95
14	-2	USC	0.794	0.531	54	29.1	12	16.9	26	163.3	60
15	-6	Oklahoma St.	0.789	0.636	13	29.6	10	17.4	29	183.0	4
16	-3	Notre Dame	0.785	0.555	44	24.4	26	14.6	9	163.0	63
17	-7	Arkansas	0.781	0.629	15	30.5	8	18.3	36	172.4	19
18	-1	Michigan	0.780	0.688	3	31.9	7	19.2	46	157.7	100
19	+2	Florida	0.769	0.643	9	24.2	28	15.0	11	157.3	103
20	+5	Georgia	0.765	0.579	30	28.7	15	17.9	31	164.7	51
21	-2	Texas A&M	0.753	0.647	8	22.9	41	14.6	8	180.3	7
22	-2	Virginia Tech	0.735	0.514	59	22.8	42	15.2	13	157.0	106
23	+1	West Virginia	0.735	0.517	58	29.0	13	19.3	47	173.0	17
24	-6	Nebraska	0.727	0.585	27	24.9	25	16.8	24	167.3	38
25	NA	Kansas St.	0.723	0.602	19	29.5	11	20.1	56	158.2	97

Rankings through games of 2012-09-09

New entries: Kansas St..

Dropped out: Missouri.

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Week 2: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Sep 9 04:58:03 2012

Week 2: Saturday Predictions

1 Alabama 51  86 Western Kentucky 19

1 Alabama 49  97 Western Kentucky 3

60 Arizona 33   9 Oklahoma St. 40

63 Arizona 27   5 Oklahoma St. 38

38 Arizona St. 35  43 Illinois 30

33 Arizona St. 31  58 Illinois 21

10 Arkansas 44  89 LA-Monroe 28

12 Arkansas 48  98 LA-Monroe 7

61 Arkansas St. 46 118 Memphis 24

72 Arkansas St. 41 118 Memphis 10

96 Bowling Green 39 110 Idaho 31

107 Bowling Green 31 111 Idaho 24

106 Central Michigan 27  11 Michigan St. 42

112 Central Michigan 20  15 Michigan St. 41

33 Clemson 43 102 Ball St. 27

34 Clemson 41 100 Ball St. 17

39 Connecticut 35  67 North Carolina St. 28

48 Connecticut 31  56 North Carolina St. 21

79 FIU 47 119 Akron 25

84 FIU 41 123 Akron 14

26 Houston 40  45 LA Tech 31

32 Houston 35  59 LA Tech 21

36 Iowa 34  64 Iowa St. 27

43 Iowa 31  70 Iowa St. 20

107 Kansas 37 104 Rice 34

89 Kansas 34 101 Rice 21

31 Kansas St. 39  37 Miami-FL 34

28 Kansas St. 31  44 Miami-FL 24

88 Kentucky 30 100 Kent St. 26

64 Kentucky 38 109 Kent St. 7

2 LSU 46  57 Washington 27

3 LSU 45  49 Washington 14

NA Massachusetts 23 105 Indiana 43

124 Massachusetts 14 106 Indiana 34

17 Michigan 45  49 Air Force 32

21 Michigan 41  55 Air Force 21

111 Middle Tenn. 39 117 FL-Atlantic 29

116 Middle Tenn. 31 122 FL-Atlantic 24

101 Mississippi 34  91 UTEP 33

93 Mississippi 28  96 UTEP 21

30 Mississippi St. 34  40 Auburn 31

29 Mississippi St. 27  41 Auburn 21

22 Missouri 36  25 Georgia 33

24 Missouri 28  14 Georgia 27

35 Nevada 35  46 South Florida 29

51 Nevada 28  52 South Florida 24

66 Northwestern 34  58 Vanderbilt 33

65 Northwestern 24  27 Vanderbilt 31

13 Notre Dame 40  71 Purdue 25

20 Notre Dame 41  73 Purdue 17

62 Ohio 47 114 New Mexico St. 29

61 Ohio 38 110 New Mexico St. 20

15 Ohio St. 38  47 UCF 28

23 Ohio St. 34  66 UCF 13

6 Oregon 56  85 Fresno St. 31

4 Oregon 52  88 Fresno St. 14

68 Oregon St. 31   3 Wisconsin 46

69 Oregon St. 24   8 Wisconsin 38

65 SDSU 39  94 Army 29

67 SDSU 34  95 Army 20

16 South Carolina 44  84 East Carolina 26

11 South Carolina 45  87 East Carolina 17

12 USC 42  74 Syracuse 29

10 USC 41  86 Syracuse 14

8 Stanford 49  78 Duke 28

6 Stanford 42  75 Duke 13

27 Temple 41  81 Maryland 27

30 Temple 35 114 Maryland 17

23 Texas 46 120 New Mexico 18

22 Texas 59 119 New Mexico 3

19 Texas A&M 34  21 Florida 30

19 Texas A&M 28  16 Florida 24

NA Texas State 43  70 Texas Tech 22

2 Texas State 41  71 Texas Tech 14

99 Troy 39  83 LA-Lafayette 36

105 Troy 28  90 LA-Lafayette 31

50 Tulsa 46 116 Tulane 26

62 Tulsa 42 121 Tulane 14

69 UCLA 31  18 Nebraska 37

68 UCLA 24  18 Nebraska 34

80 Virginia 26  42 Penn State 29

79 Virginia 21  54 Penn State 22

77 Wake Forest 34  53 North Carolina 35

76 Wake Forest 24  53 North Carolina 28

95 Wyoming 35  59 Toledo 38

91 Wyoming 28  57 Toledo 31

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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Week 2: Saturday Matchups

With Justin temporarily absent, I'll present my picks and leave the placeholders for his picks.

Game of the Week

Florida Gators at Texas A&M Aggies

GUGS Score: 58.8

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
19	Texas A&M	0.759	0.603	22	22.8	39	14.4	7	184.1	1
21	Florida	0.746	0.609	17	23.6	34	15.3	12	158.5	99

Texas A&M 34, Florida 30 (64.9%); 171 plays

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
19	Texas A&M	0.860	0.556	10	22.2	15	12.1	25	172.7	11
16	Florida	0.883	0.559	7	16.8	55	10.1	8	161.4	110

People act like (19) Texas A&M was the flop of the 2011 season and undeserving of an invite to the SEC.  Those same people clearly don't pay attention to their schedule, which included Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Baylor, Kansas State, and Oklahoma.  The Aggies weren't terribly consistent, but they were certainly above average with a 32.8 +/- 21.3 PPH offense and 1.5 +/- 21.2 PPH defense.  (16) Florida has looked terrible offensively with a 24.8 +/- 15.9 PPH.  Their 0.1 +/- 20.0 PPH defense is the only thing keeping them in the top 25.  The game should be relatively close, but home field advantage inducts the Aggies into the SEC with a 28-24 win with 68.5% confidence.

Shootout of the Week

Air Force Falcons at Michigan Wolverines

GUGS Score: 41.6

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
21	Michigan	0.851	0.544	24	22.4	13	12.0	24	167.5	50
52	Air Force	0.596	0.472	87	19.3	28	17.3	73	164.2	93

Still stinging from their Alabama beatdown, (21) Michigan hosts (52) Air Force.  The triple option is surprisingly effective against unprepared defenses, and Michigan plays like an unprepared defense with 0.0 +/- 27.7 PPH efficiency.  The problem is that Air Force is no better at 7.0 +/- 20.6 PPH.  The real difference is offensive efficiency.  Denard Robinson should run free in the Air Force secondary, leading a 34.2 +/- 23.6 PPH offense against a comparatively weak 26.4 +/- 14.2 PPH Falcon offense.  Expect lots of scoring and a 41-21 Michigan victory with 77.4% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
17	Michigan	0.790	0.710	1	32.3	6	19.1	45	156.1	108
49	Air Force	0.572	0.412	94	24.3	28	21.6	68	162.4	68

Michigan 45, Air Force 32 (82.9%); 159 plays

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Vanderbilt Commodores at Northwestern Wildcats

GUGS Score: 45.4

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
66	Northwestern	0.475	0.510	63	21.9	50	22.8	76	171.5	22
58	Vanderbilt	0.542	0.648	8	19.4	73	18.1	36	160.2	85

Northwestern 34, Vanderbilt 33 (57.0%); 165 plays

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
63	Northwestern	0.500	0.511	63	17.3	46	17.4	75	176.7	2
27	Vanderbilt	0.807	0.550	14	18.8	33	11.1	14	161.5	107

RBA loves (27) Vanderbilt.  They nearly beat Arkansas last year and South Carolina this year.  The Commodores are tough on defense to the tune of 2.9 +/- 16.6 PPH.  Offensive inconsistency keeps them out of the top 25, but 33.0 +/- 28.4 PPH is comparable to Michigan.  (63) Northwestern isn't that bad, but their 10.0 +/- 14.8 PPH defense is going to have their hands full.  RBA says Vandy wins, 31-24, with 74.2% confidence.

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	33.66 -  9.34	78.28%
TFG	34.11 -  8.89	79.32%

Week 2: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Fri Sep 7 22:18:03 2012

Week 2: Friday Predictions

75 Utah St. 33  29 Utah 36

77 Utah St. 27  36 Utah 28

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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Week 2: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Thu Sep 6 21:08:03 2012

Week 2: Thursday Predictions

34 Cincinnati 35  41 Pittsburgh 31

35 Cincinnati 27  39 Pittsburgh 24

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter @TFGridiron

TFG is dead, long live RBA!

For the last two years I've poured a lot of hard work and love into this blog, and I'm proud of what Eddie and I have been able to build here. From the kernel of an idea four years ago to a regular destination for stats and insight about college football, it's been a fun trip.

Unfortunately that trip is going to have to be put on hold for a little while. Due to various circumstances I'm going to have to indefinitely suspend my half of the blog (the blue TFG portions).

What does this mean? All the automated updates described in the "Behind the Scenes" post will continue to work as advertised, and Eddie is free to continue bringing you his insight and discussions on the Regression-Based Analysis portions. Game predictions, conference projections, in-game win probabilities, our Twitter feeds, and even my rankings and top 25 will continue to post. I won't, however, be writing up my thoughts on the college game or running the pick'ems (contrary to what some may say, this is not because our picks did poorly in week one).

So while you might not see any more of my write-ups, please keep coming back for Eddie's insights and our tempo-free statistics. I'll still be following the season, even if I'm not writing about it. And with luck I'll be back before the season's over. If not, here's my prediction: Alabama will not win it all.

Book it, done.

Thanks, and hope to be back soon.

Week 2: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Houston (0.124); Illinois (0.111); Ohio (0.104); Duke (0.093); Iowa St. (0.072)

Biggest drops: Massachusetts (-0.500); South Alabama (-0.458); UTSA (-0.423); Southern Miss. (-0.207); Texas State (-0.198)

Full rankings after the jump.