Biggest jumps: LA Tech (+14, 82 to 68); Northern Illinois (+14, 66 to 52); Stanford (+12, 44 to 32); BYU (+12, 30 to 18).
Biggest drops: Virginia (-11, 42 to 53); Missouri (-11, 32 to 43); California (-10, 39 to 49); Temple (-10, 68 to 78).
Full rankings after the jump.
Monday, November 9, 2009
Week 11: Top 25
One more week in the books, one more week of TFG rankings.
New entries: BYU, Oregon State
Dropped out: Georgia Tech, Wisconson
At the top Texas leapfrogs TCU to settle into second behind Florida. The Ohio State/Penn State game was good for a total of four points of movement: OSU jumps two and PSU drops two. Oklahoma loses but still manages to rise, but that's deceptive; Oklahoma's week-over-week winning percentage is on a steady decline as the loss of Sam Bradford is reflected in their plummeting offensive efficiency -- down 2.7 points in three weeks, with more to come -- and only their defensive efficiency keeping them near the top. (For everyone who sees this as 'Exhibit A' for my system being horribly broken, I direct you to Jeff Sagarin's Predictor algorithm, which ranks the Sooners at 8th in the nation.)
Boise State's weak strength of schedule is slowly catching up with them, as they slowly sink with every point their opponents score. When your ranking depends on not just winning but demolishing your opponents thanks to a weak SoS, you can't afford to let LA-Tech hang 35 on you. Had Boise State allowed one less touchdown or had Penn State scored one more TD, Oklahoma would have held steady or even dropped.
And, in a weird case of symmetry, neither LSU nor Alabama budge in the rankings. Hopefully Mike Slive won't fine me for pointing that out.
| Rank | +/- | Team | WinPct | SoS | Off Pts | Def Pts | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | -- | Florida | 0.9634 | 0.6304 | 30.7 | 9.1 | 77.4 |
| 002 | +1 | Texas | 0.9581 | 0.5499 | 29.4 | 9.2 | 85.3 |
| 003 | -1 | TCU | 0.9541 | 0.4668 | 23.8 | 7.7 | 83.1 |
| 004 | +2 | Ohio St. | 0.9439 | 0.5177 | 22.4 | 7.9 | 82.4 |
| 005 | -- | Alabama | 0.9384 | 0.5899 | 24.4 | 8.9 | 81.1 |
| 006 | +2 | Oklahoma | 0.9174 | 0.7151 | 22.3 | 9.1 | 90.0 |
| 007 | -3 | Boise St. | 0.9062 | 0.3978 | 26.7 | 11.5 | 84.0 |
| 008 | +1 | USC | 0.9023 | 0.5835 | 22.8 | 10.0 | 85.1 |
| 009 | -2 | Penn State | 0.8982 | 0.5238 | 20.9 | 9.3 | 81.8 |
| 010 | +1 | Virginia Tech | 0.8760 | 0.6439 | 24.4 | 11.8 | 81.4 |
| 011 | -1 | Oregon | 0.8631 | 0.6093 | 24.1 | 12.2 | 91.5 |
| 012 | -- | LSU | 0.8480 | 0.5704 | 20.8 | 11.0 | 80.5 |
| 013 | +2 | Nebraska | 0.8412 | 0.5372 | 19.4 | 10.5 | 82.2 |
| 014 | +2 | Clemson | 0.8372 | 0.6336 | 20.3 | 11.1 | 84.6 |
| 015 | +2 | Texas Tech | 0.8306 | 0.5697 | 28.0 | 15.5 | 89.3 |
| 016 | -3 | Cincinnati | 0.8055 | 0.4831 | 22.3 | 13.2 | 85.6 |
| 017 | -3 | Iowa | 0.7963 | 0.5344 | 19.7 | 11.9 | 81.7 |
| 018 | NA | BYU | 0.7834 | 0.4008 | 23.9 | 14.9 | 83.1 |
| 019 | +1 | Pittsburgh | 0.7814 | 0.5001 | 22.8 | 14.2 | 81.9 |
| 020 | -2 | Utah | 0.7657 | 0.3546 | 20.7 | 13.3 | 84.4 |
| 021 | +1 | Oklahoma St. | 0.7639 | 0.5792 | 24.6 | 15.9 | 82.6 |
| 022 | -3 | Tennessee | 0.7492 | 0.5629 | 21.2 | 14.2 | 82.7 |
| 023 | +2 | Miami-FL | 0.7454 | 0.6893 | 23.1 | 15.5 | 82.6 |
| 024 | NA | Oregon St. | 0.7419 | 0.6327 | 21.5 | 14.5 | 87.5 |
| 025 | -1 | Mississippi | 0.7279 | 0.5665 | 19.1 | 13.3 | 82.7 |
New entries: BYU, Oregon State
Dropped out: Georgia Tech, Wisconson
At the top Texas leapfrogs TCU to settle into second behind Florida. The Ohio State/Penn State game was good for a total of four points of movement: OSU jumps two and PSU drops two. Oklahoma loses but still manages to rise, but that's deceptive; Oklahoma's week-over-week winning percentage is on a steady decline as the loss of Sam Bradford is reflected in their plummeting offensive efficiency -- down 2.7 points in three weeks, with more to come -- and only their defensive efficiency keeping them near the top. (For everyone who sees this as 'Exhibit A' for my system being horribly broken, I direct you to Jeff Sagarin's Predictor algorithm, which ranks the Sooners at 8th in the nation.)
Boise State's weak strength of schedule is slowly catching up with them, as they slowly sink with every point their opponents score. When your ranking depends on not just winning but demolishing your opponents thanks to a weak SoS, you can't afford to let LA-Tech hang 35 on you. Had Boise State allowed one less touchdown or had Penn State scored one more TD, Oklahoma would have held steady or even dropped.
And, in a weird case of symmetry, neither LSU nor Alabama budge in the rankings. Hopefully Mike Slive won't fine me for pointing that out.
Under the Hood: Updates
Over the last few weeks I've been getting feedback on my system and kicking around some new ideas with a colleague of mine. He's off creating his own system -- and hopefully will start posting here soon, too -- and while I'm not adopting his methodology wholesale there are some tweaks I'm making in response to some of his comments.
For a quick refresher of how my system works, check out Pomeroy's primer on tempo-free statistics and my translation of those principles to college football.
The first change I'm making is reducing the exponent in the Pythagorean expectation formula from 3.0 to 2.7. This may seem like a small change but it has the effect of flattening out the winning percentage distribution. In the Week 10 rankings the team in the dead center of our distribution was Minnesota with a 0.5001 winning percentage, meaning they are our example of a perfectly average college football team. All winning percentages and odds can be expressed in terms of "games against Minnesota".
For example, in the Week 10 rankings using the previous formula Florida (0.972 winning percentage) would have a 97.2% chance of defeating Minnesota. The Golden Gophers would have to play 25 games against Florida in order to have better than 50-50 odds of winning at least one game. That's two whole seasons of futile college ball against a single team. Changing the exponent to 2.7 means that Florida's winning percentage drops from 0.972 to 0.963, a modest slip. However, this brings a small glimmer of hope to Minnesota. Now they would "only" have to play 18 games against Florida to have 50-50 odds of winning at least one game.
To be clear: this change will not affect the favorite in a matchup, simply the odds that the the favorite will win. It reflects that there is more uncertainty in college ball than predicted under the old system.
The second tweak is an adjusting of the home field advantage factors. The previous values were under-estimating the abilities of teams to win at home early in the season, and over-estimating their ability to win at home in November and December (odd side note: home teams actually have a losing record starting in mid-November, going 276-316). This change actually will affect which team is predicted to win a certain game since it adjusts the offensive and defensive efficiencies.
Over the next week I also plan to explore the predictive effect (if any) of strength of schedule. Namely, if two teams with similar winning percentages but vastly different strengths of schedule play, are there any statistically significant trends that emerge? Is there actually an advantage to being "battle-tested"? Is it possible to play too rigorous of a schedule and get worn down?
Further out I hope to explore the effect of two teams playing each other several times (e.g., conference foes). Does repeated exposure to an opponent level the playing field? Or do we only notice these upsets -- such as Stanford-Oregon -- more often because of the hype the press puts on these matchups? More to come, hopefully with pretty charts and graphs.
For a quick refresher of how my system works, check out Pomeroy's primer on tempo-free statistics and my translation of those principles to college football.
The first change I'm making is reducing the exponent in the Pythagorean expectation formula from 3.0 to 2.7. This may seem like a small change but it has the effect of flattening out the winning percentage distribution. In the Week 10 rankings the team in the dead center of our distribution was Minnesota with a 0.5001 winning percentage, meaning they are our example of a perfectly average college football team. All winning percentages and odds can be expressed in terms of "games against Minnesota".
For example, in the Week 10 rankings using the previous formula Florida (0.972 winning percentage) would have a 97.2% chance of defeating Minnesota. The Golden Gophers would have to play 25 games against Florida in order to have better than 50-50 odds of winning at least one game. That's two whole seasons of futile college ball against a single team. Changing the exponent to 2.7 means that Florida's winning percentage drops from 0.972 to 0.963, a modest slip. However, this brings a small glimmer of hope to Minnesota. Now they would "only" have to play 18 games against Florida to have 50-50 odds of winning at least one game.
To be clear: this change will not affect the favorite in a matchup, simply the odds that the the favorite will win. It reflects that there is more uncertainty in college ball than predicted under the old system.
The second tweak is an adjusting of the home field advantage factors. The previous values were under-estimating the abilities of teams to win at home early in the season, and over-estimating their ability to win at home in November and December (odd side note: home teams actually have a losing record starting in mid-November, going 276-316). This change actually will affect which team is predicted to win a certain game since it adjusts the offensive and defensive efficiencies.
Over the next week I also plan to explore the predictive effect (if any) of strength of schedule. Namely, if two teams with similar winning percentages but vastly different strengths of schedule play, are there any statistically significant trends that emerge? Is there actually an advantage to being "battle-tested"? Is it possible to play too rigorous of a schedule and get worn down?
Further out I hope to explore the effect of two teams playing each other several times (e.g., conference foes). Does repeated exposure to an opponent level the playing field? Or do we only notice these upsets -- such as Stanford-Oregon -- more often because of the hype the press puts on these matchups? More to come, hopefully with pretty charts and graphs.
Week 10: Summary
Overall it was a brutal week for predictions. Of the 11 games where the favorite had between a 50% and 60% chance to win, I got two correct (Hawaii and LA-Monroe). Throw in Notre Dame-Navy (with the 60.2% chance of getting it right) and I went 2-for-12 in predicting close games. Those are a lot of bad bounces. Overall my record for this week was 36-17, bringing the total for the last three weeks to 122-41 for an accuracy of 74.8%. In my next post I'll examine some changes I'm making to my system in response to observations and feedback. But first, the Week 10 recap ....
Games To Watch
(25) Oregon State at (39) California.
I said: Vegas -- and my numbers -- say Cal is the favorite, but look for Oregon State to pull off the upset.
Result: Correct. OSU took control of this game early on and didn't let go.
(33) Navy at (35) Notre Dame.
I said: I predict that Notre Dame will pull off the victory, but only at the end and only if they can keep Navy from getting some quick points.
Result: Somewhat near the target but ultimately wrong. Navy scored on their first two drives to go up 14-0 at the start of the second quarter. Notre Dame missed two FGs -- including one from the Navy 12 -- gave up a safety, and just couldn't pull it together. In every category except the one that mattered, Notre Dame one-upped Navy: yards, first downs, punts, etc. With two minutes left, Notre Dame still had a shot to win, they just couldn't get it done.
(47) Houston at (56) Tulsa.
I said: The main question is whether or not Tulsa will be able to keep up with Houston's frantic pace, averaging an NCAA-high 185 plays per game. The numbers give Tulsa a 51% nod in what will be a fast-and-furious high-scoring game.
Result: I'm pretty disappointed I didn't get this one right. I looked at the boxscore and saw Tulsa up 8 with 2:30 minutes to go and Houston at midfield. Here I thought the worse that would happen would be overtime. And up 2 with 0:25 left? Surely this one was in the bag. But no. These are the kinds of games that drive me crazy because you're left wondering if there was anything you could have done differently to predict a Houston win. Sometimes ... it just doesn't work out.
Coin Toss Game of the Week
(90) Utah State at (101) Hawaii. Not nearly as close as the numbers predicted. This appears to be a growing trend.
Games To Watch
(25) Oregon State at (39) California.
I said: Vegas -- and my numbers -- say Cal is the favorite, but look for Oregon State to pull off the upset.
Result: Correct. OSU took control of this game early on and didn't let go.
(33) Navy at (35) Notre Dame.
I said: I predict that Notre Dame will pull off the victory, but only at the end and only if they can keep Navy from getting some quick points.
Result: Somewhat near the target but ultimately wrong. Navy scored on their first two drives to go up 14-0 at the start of the second quarter. Notre Dame missed two FGs -- including one from the Navy 12 -- gave up a safety, and just couldn't pull it together. In every category except the one that mattered, Notre Dame one-upped Navy: yards, first downs, punts, etc. With two minutes left, Notre Dame still had a shot to win, they just couldn't get it done.
(47) Houston at (56) Tulsa.
I said: The main question is whether or not Tulsa will be able to keep up with Houston's frantic pace, averaging an NCAA-high 185 plays per game. The numbers give Tulsa a 51% nod in what will be a fast-and-furious high-scoring game.
Result: I'm pretty disappointed I didn't get this one right. I looked at the boxscore and saw Tulsa up 8 with 2:30 minutes to go and Houston at midfield. Here I thought the worse that would happen would be overtime. And up 2 with 0:25 left? Surely this one was in the bag. But no. These are the kinds of games that drive me crazy because you're left wondering if there was anything you could have done differently to predict a Houston win. Sometimes ... it just doesn't work out.
Coin Toss Game of the Week
(90) Utah State at (101) Hawaii. Not nearly as close as the numbers predicted. This appears to be a growing trend.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Week 10: BCS Picture, Part II
And now, the thrilling conclusion of our BCS championship overview.
Alabama (8-0, #3 BCS, #5 TFG, 0.953 WPct, 0.572 SoS)
Alabama has had a solid season against good opponents, including (11) Virginia Tech and (23) Mississippi. After that the quality of opponent drops off a bit, including (41) Arkansas, (50) South Carolina, and (51) Kentucky. After last week's break, Alabama won't have to worry too much about strength of schedule the rest of the way.
Even with games against (12) LSU and (29) Auburn, Alabama has a 62% chance of finishing the year undefeated. However the odds say that Alabama also has the potential to trip up in games against LSU or Auburn (Mississippi State should be less of an issue). Their prize for finishing up undefeated? All signs point to an SEC championship game against Florida. More on that later.
Texas (#2 BCS, #3 TFG, 0.965 WPct, 0.583 SoS)
Texas has been impressive all season long, putting up double-digit wins on all opponents except for (8) Oklahoma. That streak looks to continue for the rest of the season as Texas isn't going to face an opponent in the top 35 for the rest of the year, with their biggest challenge likely to be when (40) Kansas comes to visit.
Even with four games remaining, Texas has an 85% chance of going undefeated going into the Big 12 championship game. Right now their opponent is likely to be (54) Kansas State, who don't exactly pose a big threat to an undefeated pre-bowl season for the Longhorns. Of all the teams in college football today, Texas looks to be the most likely to secure a BCS National Championship invitation. Which brings us to ...
Florida (#1 BCS, #1 TFG, 0.972 WPct, 0.680 SoS)
Florida is currently the #1 team in the country across the polls -- including the TFG rankings -- and there doesn't seem to be a viable obstacle in Florida's path to the National Championship game until the SEC Championship. A likely matchup with Alabama would give the Gators a run for their money, but with that exception Florida isn't likely to be challenged by anyone on their remaining schedule except Florida State. And I use the word "challenged" very loosely.
Florida has a 90% chance of entering the SEC Championship game undefeated. That's where it gets tricky for both Florida and Alabama, assuming that's the matchup (currently that's a 55% probable outcome of this season). Assuming their winning percentages don't change and we consider Atlanta to be a neutral field, Florida is 63% likely to emerge as the winner. Obviously should Alabama lose and end up not going to the SEC title game, it's likely that Florida's odds of making it to the National Championship game increase as they would have a weaker opponent in the SEC title game. In fact the team Florida would be most likely to see in that game other than Alabama would be an LSU squad they've already defeated this year.
So there you have it. As it stands the most likely National Championship game would pit undefeated Florida against undefeated Texas. Although even this likely scenario has only roughly a 1-in-4 shot of happening. This weekend will see crucial games for the SEC contenders, and next weekend we'll see if Iowa is for real or not. Expect the championship picture to be much clearer on the evening of November 14th.
Alabama (8-0, #3 BCS, #5 TFG, 0.953 WPct, 0.572 SoS)
Alabama has had a solid season against good opponents, including (11) Virginia Tech and (23) Mississippi. After that the quality of opponent drops off a bit, including (41) Arkansas, (50) South Carolina, and (51) Kentucky. After last week's break, Alabama won't have to worry too much about strength of schedule the rest of the way.
| Home | Visitors | Odds | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (5) Alabama | 17 | (12) LSU | 7 | 81.7 |
| (49) Mississippi St. | 17 | (5) Alabama | 24 | 89.4 |
| (29) Auburn | 17 | (5) Alabama | 24 | 84.8 |
Even with games against (12) LSU and (29) Auburn, Alabama has a 62% chance of finishing the year undefeated. However the odds say that Alabama also has the potential to trip up in games against LSU or Auburn (Mississippi State should be less of an issue). Their prize for finishing up undefeated? All signs point to an SEC championship game against Florida. More on that later.
Texas (#2 BCS, #3 TFG, 0.965 WPct, 0.583 SoS)
Texas has been impressive all season long, putting up double-digit wins on all opponents except for (8) Oklahoma. That streak looks to continue for the rest of the season as Texas isn't going to face an opponent in the top 35 for the rest of the year, with their biggest challenge likely to be when (40) Kansas comes to visit.
| Home | Visitors | Odds | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (3) Texas | 31 | (67) UCF | 14 | 98.0 |
| (80) Baylor | 17 | (3) Texas | 31 | 97.3 |
| (3) Texas | 38 | (40) Kansas | 24 | 95.7 |
| (53) Texas A&M | 17 | (3) Texas | 31 | 93.3 |
Even with four games remaining, Texas has an 85% chance of going undefeated going into the Big 12 championship game. Right now their opponent is likely to be (54) Kansas State, who don't exactly pose a big threat to an undefeated pre-bowl season for the Longhorns. Of all the teams in college football today, Texas looks to be the most likely to secure a BCS National Championship invitation. Which brings us to ...
Florida (#1 BCS, #1 TFG, 0.972 WPct, 0.680 SoS)
Florida is currently the #1 team in the country across the polls -- including the TFG rankings -- and there doesn't seem to be a viable obstacle in Florida's path to the National Championship game until the SEC Championship. A likely matchup with Alabama would give the Gators a run for their money, but with that exception Florida isn't likely to be challenged by anyone on their remaining schedule except Florida State. And I use the word "challenged" very loosely.
| Home | Visitors | Odds | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) Florida | 40 | (89) Vanderbilt | 16 | 99.3 |
| (50) South Carolina | 17 | (1) Florida | 24 | 93.9 |
| (1) Florida | 46 | (106) FIU | 17 | 99.6 |
| (1) Florida | 38 | (38) Florida St. | 24 | 96.4 |
Florida has a 90% chance of entering the SEC Championship game undefeated. That's where it gets tricky for both Florida and Alabama, assuming that's the matchup (currently that's a 55% probable outcome of this season). Assuming their winning percentages don't change and we consider Atlanta to be a neutral field, Florida is 63% likely to emerge as the winner. Obviously should Alabama lose and end up not going to the SEC title game, it's likely that Florida's odds of making it to the National Championship game increase as they would have a weaker opponent in the SEC title game. In fact the team Florida would be most likely to see in that game other than Alabama would be an LSU squad they've already defeated this year.
So there you have it. As it stands the most likely National Championship game would pit undefeated Florida against undefeated Texas. Although even this likely scenario has only roughly a 1-in-4 shot of happening. This weekend will see crucial games for the SEC contenders, and next weekend we'll see if Iowa is for real or not. Expect the championship picture to be much clearer on the evening of November 14th.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Week 10: BCS Picture, Part I
As of today there are seven undefeated teams in contention for the BCS Championship. We'll take a look at each team, the opponents they face the remainder of the season, and what record they're likely to carry into the bowl picture.
Boise State (8-0, #7 BCS, #4 Tempo-Free Gridiron, 0.956 WPct, 0.391 SoS)
Boise State has played the least challenging schedule of any undefeated team and has one of the smoothest roads to the end of the season. As of today their most difficult opponent for the remainder of the year will be LA Tech, whom they play this weekend, in which they are "only" 97% favorites.
There is only a 1-in-12 chance that Boise State will not end the season undefeated. However, historically teams from outside the "Big Six" aren't invited to the National Championship game, especially if there are two undefeated teams from within the BCS conferences. Things could get very interesting if Oregon wins out the remainder of their games -- a distinct possibility -- and starts getting serious National Championship talk themselves. Shades of OU/Texas from last year, anyone?
TCU (8-0, #6 BCS, #2 TFG, 0.968 WPct, 0.486 SoS)
TCU is in a similar position as Boise State. Currently undefeated, likely to win out the rest of their games, but clearly considered a second-tier team. Their key wins this year are against Virginia, Clemson, Air Force, and BYU. Not exactly a stunning resume, especially since Virginia has been in free-fall last the few weeks (losing at home to Duke will do that to your reputation) and Clemson is good on paper but can't seem to pull it together for the big games. The rest of the year looks to be downhill for TCU, though.
Other than the home game against Utah, TCU should be able to put it on cruise control for the rest of the season and still come out undefeated. They have nearly a 90% chance of finishing the year with an unblemished record. How the BCS will respond to two undefeated non-BCS teams remains to be seen.
Cincinnati (#5 BCS, #13 TFG, 0.858 WPct, 0.456 SoS)
Cincinnati is a team that the voters love, the BCS computers love, yet tempo-free stats remain unsure. Their defensive rating (11.7) is respectable, yet their offensive efficiency (21.3) is keeping them out of the top 10. It sounds odd to pick on a team that averages 39.1 PPG (6th in the NCAA), but the adjusted stats say that Cincinnati's less-than-average strength-of-schedule is hurting them here. Sagarin agrees, pegging the Bearcats' SoS at 75th in the nation. Cincinnati has a somewhat downhill schedule from here with three of their last four at home. However, getting past West Virginia and Pittsburgh will be difficult.
All together the Bearcats have a 41% chance of finishing the year undefeated, and are just as likely to finish the year with one loss. Cincinnati is a good team but are even more overrated by the BCS than Boise State and TCU.
Iowa (#4 BCS, #14 TFG, 0.855 WPct, 0.559 SoS)
The Hawkeyes have been on the knife's edge all season and have come out ahead each time. They've defeated (48) Michigan State, (65) Michigan, and (83) Arkansas State by a combined margin of seven points. Yet this is the same team that defeated Penn State on the road by 11. As time passes, though, you have to wonder if the true Iowa team is the one that defeated Penn State on the road or the one that struggled to put away Indiana at home.
The entire Hawkeye season will come down to how they do on November 14th at Ohio State. Right now the odds don't look good, with OSU pegged as 5-to-1 favorites. Iowa has roughly a 1-in-6 shot of finishing the year undefeated, but a win over OSU bumps those odds up to nearly 5-in-6. In short: we'll wait and see.
Tomorrow ... the thrilling conclusion of the Week 10 BCS picture.
Boise State (8-0, #7 BCS, #4 Tempo-Free Gridiron, 0.956 WPct, 0.391 SoS)
Boise State has played the least challenging schedule of any undefeated team and has one of the smoothest roads to the end of the season. As of today their most difficult opponent for the remainder of the year will be LA Tech, whom they play this weekend, in which they are "only" 97% favorites.
| Home | Visitors | Odds | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (82) LA Tech | 14 | (4) Boise St. | 24 | 97.0 |
| (4) Boise St. | 47 | (96) Idaho | 22 | 99.1 |
| (90) Utah St. | 17 | (4) Boise St. | 31 | 97.8 |
| (4) Boise St. | 38 | (70) Nevada | 24 | 97.7 |
| (4) Boise St. | 45 | (118) New Mexico St. | 14 | 99.8 |
There is only a 1-in-12 chance that Boise State will not end the season undefeated. However, historically teams from outside the "Big Six" aren't invited to the National Championship game, especially if there are two undefeated teams from within the BCS conferences. Things could get very interesting if Oregon wins out the remainder of their games -- a distinct possibility -- and starts getting serious National Championship talk themselves. Shades of OU/Texas from last year, anyone?
TCU (8-0, #6 BCS, #2 TFG, 0.968 WPct, 0.486 SoS)
TCU is in a similar position as Boise State. Currently undefeated, likely to win out the rest of their games, but clearly considered a second-tier team. Their key wins this year are against Virginia, Clemson, Air Force, and BYU. Not exactly a stunning resume, especially since Virginia has been in free-fall last the few weeks (losing at home to Duke will do that to your reputation) and Clemson is good on paper but can't seem to pull it together for the big games. The rest of the year looks to be downhill for TCU, though.
| Home | Visitors | Odds | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (104) SDSU | 14 | (2) TCU | 24 | 99.0 |
| (2) TCU | 24 | (18) Utah | 17 | 92.0 |
| (100) Wyoming | 15 | (2) TCU | 32 | 98.9 |
| (2) TCU | 42 | (114) New Mexico | 15 | 99.8 |
Other than the home game against Utah, TCU should be able to put it on cruise control for the rest of the season and still come out undefeated. They have nearly a 90% chance of finishing the year with an unblemished record. How the BCS will respond to two undefeated non-BCS teams remains to be seen.
Cincinnati (#5 BCS, #13 TFG, 0.858 WPct, 0.456 SoS)
Cincinnati is a team that the voters love, the BCS computers love, yet tempo-free stats remain unsure. Their defensive rating (11.7) is respectable, yet their offensive efficiency (21.3) is keeping them out of the top 10. It sounds odd to pick on a team that averages 39.1 PPG (6th in the NCAA), but the adjusted stats say that Cincinnati's less-than-average strength-of-schedule is hurting them here. Sagarin agrees, pegging the Bearcats' SoS at 75th in the nation. Cincinnati has a somewhat downhill schedule from here with three of their last four at home. However, getting past West Virginia and Pittsburgh will be difficult.
| Home | Visitors | Odds | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (13) Cincinnati | 24 | (52) Connecticut | 17 | 87.5 |
| (13) Cincinnati | 24 | (27) West Virginia | 17 | 78.4 |
| (13) Cincinnati | 24 | (78) Illinois | 17 | 94.5 |
| (20) Pittsburgh | 17 | (13) Cincinnati | 24 | 63.0 |
All together the Bearcats have a 41% chance of finishing the year undefeated, and are just as likely to finish the year with one loss. Cincinnati is a good team but are even more overrated by the BCS than Boise State and TCU.
Iowa (#4 BCS, #14 TFG, 0.855 WPct, 0.559 SoS)
The Hawkeyes have been on the knife's edge all season and have come out ahead each time. They've defeated (48) Michigan State, (65) Michigan, and (83) Arkansas State by a combined margin of seven points. Yet this is the same team that defeated Penn State on the road by 11. As time passes, though, you have to wonder if the true Iowa team is the one that defeated Penn State on the road or the one that struggled to put away Indiana at home.
| Home | Visitors | Odds | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (14) Iowa | 24 | (75) Northwestern | 17 | 94.2 |
| (6) Ohio St. | 17 | (14) Iowa | 7 | 82.3 |
| (14) Iowa | 24 | (58) Minnesota | 17 | 89.9 |
The entire Hawkeye season will come down to how they do on November 14th at Ohio State. Right now the odds don't look good, with OSU pegged as 5-to-1 favorites. Iowa has roughly a 1-in-6 shot of finishing the year undefeated, but a win over OSU bumps those odds up to nearly 5-in-6. In short: we'll wait and see.
Tomorrow ... the thrilling conclusion of the Week 10 BCS picture.
Week 10: Predictions
Last week saw several exciting games, and Week 10 is already off to an equally exciting start. Last night Bowling Green beat Buffalo on an 18-yard TD with 0:39 remaining. The numbers had Buffalo winning 31-24, but only with 50.2% odds. Barring a touchdown from the 7 on 4th down as time expires, games generally don't come much closer than that. With that, I bring you ...
Games To Watch
(25) Oregon State at (39) California. This has the potential to be a fast game (around 174 plays) with OK but not excellent defenses. Oregon State has a similar offensive efficiency as Iowa, they just need to step it up on the defensive side. California will have the home-field advantage, pushing their defense into West Virginia territory and essentially equivalent to Oregon State. They'll need to step it up on offense to keep up with Oregon State. Vegas -- and my numbers -- say Cal is the favorite, but look for Oregon State to pull off the upset.
(33) Navy at (35) Notre Dame. These are two teams headed in opposite directions in the rankings. Two weeks ago Notre Dame was in the top 25 and Navy was struggling to stay in the top 40. Now Notre Dame is only the favorite by virtue of being the home team, hanging their hats on their defensive rating of 15.6. Navy has a solid offense, though, with an efficiency similar to that of Alabama (24.2). Notre Dame are 11-point favorites, but I see this game being much closer, with the Fighting Irish having only a 60.2% chance of pulling off the victory. I predict that Notre Dame will pull off the victory, but only at the end and only if they can keep Navy from getting some quick points.
(47) Houston at (56) Tulsa. Houston currently sits at #15 in the BCS polls, but I don't believe that and neither do the oddsmakers; they're currently split on this game, and for good reason. Houston has all the defensive abilities of Michigan and the offensive firepower of Nevada. If that doesn't sound like a top 15 BCS team then ... well, it shouldn't. Houston has racked up some impressive wins against less-than-impressive opposition. Tulsa has done more of the same, playing an even weaker slate than Houston. They don't have the offensive weapons that Houston does, but has a reasonable defense. The main question is whether or not Tulsa will be able to keep up with Houston's frantic pace, averaging an NCAA-high 185 plays per game. The numbers give Tulsa a 51% nod in what will be a fast-and-furious high-scoring game.
Coin Toss Game of the Week
(90) Utah State at (101) Hawaii. Not exactly Penn State/Ohio State, but this one should be much closer. Hawaii is the 50.9-49.1 favorite in this one. The numbers say Hawaii, but your guess is as good as mine.
The Bottom Line
The numbers say they should get 40 of the 52 games this week correct for a 76.9% accuracy rate. They've started out 1-for-2, getting UCF over Marshall but missing Buffalo-Bowling Green. Full predictions after the jump.
Games To Watch
(25) Oregon State at (39) California. This has the potential to be a fast game (around 174 plays) with OK but not excellent defenses. Oregon State has a similar offensive efficiency as Iowa, they just need to step it up on the defensive side. California will have the home-field advantage, pushing their defense into West Virginia territory and essentially equivalent to Oregon State. They'll need to step it up on offense to keep up with Oregon State. Vegas -- and my numbers -- say Cal is the favorite, but look for Oregon State to pull off the upset.
(33) Navy at (35) Notre Dame. These are two teams headed in opposite directions in the rankings. Two weeks ago Notre Dame was in the top 25 and Navy was struggling to stay in the top 40. Now Notre Dame is only the favorite by virtue of being the home team, hanging their hats on their defensive rating of 15.6. Navy has a solid offense, though, with an efficiency similar to that of Alabama (24.2). Notre Dame are 11-point favorites, but I see this game being much closer, with the Fighting Irish having only a 60.2% chance of pulling off the victory. I predict that Notre Dame will pull off the victory, but only at the end and only if they can keep Navy from getting some quick points.
(47) Houston at (56) Tulsa. Houston currently sits at #15 in the BCS polls, but I don't believe that and neither do the oddsmakers; they're currently split on this game, and for good reason. Houston has all the defensive abilities of Michigan and the offensive firepower of Nevada. If that doesn't sound like a top 15 BCS team then ... well, it shouldn't. Houston has racked up some impressive wins against less-than-impressive opposition. Tulsa has done more of the same, playing an even weaker slate than Houston. They don't have the offensive weapons that Houston does, but has a reasonable defense. The main question is whether or not Tulsa will be able to keep up with Houston's frantic pace, averaging an NCAA-high 185 plays per game. The numbers give Tulsa a 51% nod in what will be a fast-and-furious high-scoring game.
Coin Toss Game of the Week
(90) Utah State at (101) Hawaii. Not exactly Penn State/Ohio State, but this one should be much closer. Hawaii is the 50.9-49.1 favorite in this one. The numbers say Hawaii, but your guess is as good as mine.
The Bottom Line
The numbers say they should get 40 of the 52 games this week correct for a 76.9% accuracy rate. They've started out 1-for-2, getting UCF over Marshall but missing Buffalo-Bowling Green. Full predictions after the jump.
Monday, November 2, 2009
Week 10: Full Rankings
Full rankings going into Week 10 after the jump.
Biggest jumps: Wisconsin (+22, 46 to 24); Boston College (+14, 48 to 34); Auburn (+13, 42 to 29).
Biggest drops: Michigan (-14, 51 to 65); South Carolina (-11, 39 to 50); Kansas (-10, 30 to 40).
Biggest jumps: Wisconsin (+22, 46 to 24); Boston College (+14, 48 to 34); Auburn (+13, 42 to 29).
Biggest drops: Michigan (-14, 51 to 65); South Carolina (-11, 39 to 50); Kansas (-10, 30 to 40).
Week 10: Top 25
With another week of college ball in the books, here are the rankings as of the morning of November 1st.
New entries: Wisconsin
Dropped out: West Virginia
You can't see it in the condensed Top 25 rankings, but Wisconsin leapt an astounding 22 places to make their debut in the Top 25. Their domination of Purdue was so complete that their defensive efficiency dropped nearly 3 points in one game alone. By comparison, Oregon's convincing win against USC improved their efficiency by 0.3. The message here is simple: if you want to make noise in these rankings, utterly stomp your opponents into the ground by keeping them more than 40 yards away from the end zone.
I know some readers will point to Oregon still being one spot behind USC as a sign that something is amiss in Tempo-Free-Ville and that any rating system worth a bucket of warm spit would have the decency to rate Oregon above USC, especially after the historic thrashing we witnessed on Saturday. Further fanning the flames, they'd point out that placing TCU above Texas is just another example of how the system gets it wrong. However, I wonder how many of those people would also place Boise State ahead of Oregon? After all, if Oregon doubles-up USC at Oregon, then surely Boise State doubling up Oregon at BSU would be worth similar consideration?
My answer to these criticisms is the same as it has been: do you want a system that simply rewards winning, or predicts future games? I'm more interested in the latter. At this point Boise State has put up some amazing numbers against the competition and continues to do well. However the quality of their opponent is going to hurt them as the season goes on and the game against Oregon carries less and less weight. We've seen that over the last week, as Boise State wins big and still drops in the rankings. Oklahoma wins and drops three spots. Iowa wins and drops two spots. These teams are winning, yes, but not in particularly convincing ways. Iowa needed some luck and some hotly-debated officiating to put away #88 Indiana. Oklahoma gave up 30 points to #61 Kansas State.
Later this week I'll take a look at each of the top teams according to the BCS rankings and lay out how their seasons will likely play out. I'll also take a look at some teams that have a chance to either sneak into the BCS picture or become that 7-4 team that no one wants to play.
| Rank | +/- | Team | WinPct | SoS | Off Pts | Def Pts | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | -- | Florida | 0.9716 | 0.6795 | 31.7 | 9.8 | 77.7 |
| 002 | +4 | TCU | 0.9677 | 0.4859 | 23.6 | 7.6 | 82.3 |
| 003 | -1 | Texas | 0.9646 | 0.5825 | 29.7 | 9.9 | 85.8 |
| 004 | -1 | Boise St. | 0.9557 | 0.3911 | 27.2 | 9.8 | 83.4 |
| 005 | -1 | Alabama | 0.9531 | 0.5719 | 24.2 | 8.9 | 80.6 |
| 006 | +3 | Ohio St. | 0.9459 | 0.4711 | 22.0 | 8.5 | 81.7 |
| 007 | +1 | Penn State | 0.9406 | 0.4682 | 22.5 | 9.0 | 81.4 |
| 008 | -3 | Oklahoma | 0.9378 | 0.7047 | 24.8 | 10.0 | 88.9 |
| 009 | -2 | USC | 0.9283 | 0.6133 | 24.9 | 10.6 | 84.3 |
| 010 | +1 | Oregon | 0.9135 | 0.6350 | 25.0 | 11.4 | 90.7 |
| 011 | -1 | Virginia Tech | 0.8918 | 0.6784 | 25.8 | 12.8 | 80.7 |
| 012 | +4 | LSU | 0.8776 | 0.5013 | 20.6 | 10.7 | 80.1 |
| 013 | +1 | Cincinnati | 0.8581 | 0.4564 | 21.3 | 11.7 | 84.6 |
| 014 | -2 | Iowa | 0.8554 | 0.5588 | 21.9 | 12.1 | 80.9 |
| 015 | -2 | Nebraska | 0.8501 | 0.4985 | 20.8 | 11.6 | 81.3 |
| 016 | -1 | Clemson | 0.8488 | 0.6352 | 20.5 | 11.5 | 84.4 |
| 017 | -- | Texas Tech | 0.8410 | 0.5791 | 27.5 | 15.8 | 88.6 |
| 018 | -- | Utah | 0.8041 | 0.3926 | 21.1 | 13.2 | 83.3 |
| 019 | +2 | Tennessee | 0.7982 | 0.6236 | 20.5 | 13.0 | 82.1 |
| 020 | +3 | Pittsburgh | 0.7807 | 0.5318 | 23.6 | 15.4 | 80.8 |
| 021 | -1 | Georgia Tech | 0.7641 | 0.6859 | 28.7 | 19.4 | 78.2 |
| 022 | +2 | Oklahoma St. | 0.7547 | 0.6168 | 25.0 | 17.2 | 82.6 |
| 023 | -4 | Mississippi | 0.7463 | 0.5639 | 19.7 | 13.7 | 82.1 |
| 024 | NA | Wisconsin | 0.7441 | 0.6522 | 20.7 | 14.5 | 85.1 |
| 025 | -- | Oregon St. | 0.7293 | 0.6399 | 21.6 | 15.5 | 87.5 |
New entries: Wisconsin
Dropped out: West Virginia
You can't see it in the condensed Top 25 rankings, but Wisconsin leapt an astounding 22 places to make their debut in the Top 25. Their domination of Purdue was so complete that their defensive efficiency dropped nearly 3 points in one game alone. By comparison, Oregon's convincing win against USC improved their efficiency by 0.3. The message here is simple: if you want to make noise in these rankings, utterly stomp your opponents into the ground by keeping them more than 40 yards away from the end zone.
I know some readers will point to Oregon still being one spot behind USC as a sign that something is amiss in Tempo-Free-Ville and that any rating system worth a bucket of warm spit would have the decency to rate Oregon above USC, especially after the historic thrashing we witnessed on Saturday. Further fanning the flames, they'd point out that placing TCU above Texas is just another example of how the system gets it wrong. However, I wonder how many of those people would also place Boise State ahead of Oregon? After all, if Oregon doubles-up USC at Oregon, then surely Boise State doubling up Oregon at BSU would be worth similar consideration?
My answer to these criticisms is the same as it has been: do you want a system that simply rewards winning, or predicts future games? I'm more interested in the latter. At this point Boise State has put up some amazing numbers against the competition and continues to do well. However the quality of their opponent is going to hurt them as the season goes on and the game against Oregon carries less and less weight. We've seen that over the last week, as Boise State wins big and still drops in the rankings. Oklahoma wins and drops three spots. Iowa wins and drops two spots. These teams are winning, yes, but not in particularly convincing ways. Iowa needed some luck and some hotly-debated officiating to put away #88 Indiana. Oklahoma gave up 30 points to #61 Kansas State.
Later this week I'll take a look at each of the top teams according to the BCS rankings and lay out how their seasons will likely play out. I'll also take a look at some teams that have a chance to either sneak into the BCS picture or become that 7-4 team that no one wants to play.
Week 9: Summary
As expected, predictions regressed to the mean this week as the system correctly predicted only 37 of 52 games for a 71% accuracy rate. We'll examine the games I highlighted as ones to watch and then examine where the system went wrong.
Games To Watch
West Virginia at South Florida. I said that USF would have to find some extra offense or really bring WVU down to their level. USF did an amazing job shutting down the West Virginia offense, limiting them to 19 points in 163 plays for a defensive efficiency of 11.7. Against a team like WVU that's a rating more in line with a Penn State or Ohio State.
USC at Oregon. What started as a close game turned into an absolutely ugly romp. USC gave up 47 points in 184 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 25.5; that's not USC defense, that's SMU defense. On the flip side, USC only scored 20 points, giving them an offensive efficiency of 10.9; that's not even SMU offense, that's Miami-OH offense. This was a lightning-fast game that threw USC out of their element and it showed.
Kansas at Texas Tech. The good news for Kansas is they slowed down the potent TTU offense, limiting them to an offensive efficiency of 22.8. The bad news for Kansas is that the TTU did them one better, limiting Kansas to a rating of 11.4. The TTU defense needed to dig down and get some stops, and that's just what they did.
Coin Toss Game of the Week
Middle Tennessee State at Florida-Atlantic. Florida-Atlantic dominated this game everywhere but where it mattered: the scoreboard. First downs, total yardage, time of possession, all left MTSU on the short end. But a blocked punt returned for a touchdown and a 74-yard touchdown put MTSU up by 7.
Just Plain Getting It Wrong
#93 SMU at #55 Tulsa (88.2%). SMU finally put together a solid performance on the defensive end, holding Tulsa to an offensive rating of 7.5. Not exactly the class of titans, but an impressive showing from SMU nonetheless.
#69 Duke at #33 Virginia (82.9%). Combine a reinvigorated Duke team that seems determined to no longer be the conference doormat with a Virginia team that's in free-fall after a good start to the season. What do you get? A 28-17 upset.
#67 Temple at #35 Navy (82.2%). Temple returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown and rang up a 41-yard touchdown pass with less than three minutes left. Last year Temple visited Navy and lost 33-27 in 158 plays. This year they won 27-24 in 150 plays. The offense was the same, but the Temple defense got the stops they needed.
Games To Watch
West Virginia at South Florida. I said that USF would have to find some extra offense or really bring WVU down to their level. USF did an amazing job shutting down the West Virginia offense, limiting them to 19 points in 163 plays for a defensive efficiency of 11.7. Against a team like WVU that's a rating more in line with a Penn State or Ohio State.
USC at Oregon. What started as a close game turned into an absolutely ugly romp. USC gave up 47 points in 184 possessions for a defensive efficiency of 25.5; that's not USC defense, that's SMU defense. On the flip side, USC only scored 20 points, giving them an offensive efficiency of 10.9; that's not even SMU offense, that's Miami-OH offense. This was a lightning-fast game that threw USC out of their element and it showed.
Kansas at Texas Tech. The good news for Kansas is they slowed down the potent TTU offense, limiting them to an offensive efficiency of 22.8. The bad news for Kansas is that the TTU did them one better, limiting Kansas to a rating of 11.4. The TTU defense needed to dig down and get some stops, and that's just what they did.
Coin Toss Game of the Week
Middle Tennessee State at Florida-Atlantic. Florida-Atlantic dominated this game everywhere but where it mattered: the scoreboard. First downs, total yardage, time of possession, all left MTSU on the short end. But a blocked punt returned for a touchdown and a 74-yard touchdown put MTSU up by 7.
Just Plain Getting It Wrong
#93 SMU at #55 Tulsa (88.2%). SMU finally put together a solid performance on the defensive end, holding Tulsa to an offensive rating of 7.5. Not exactly the class of titans, but an impressive showing from SMU nonetheless.
#69 Duke at #33 Virginia (82.9%). Combine a reinvigorated Duke team that seems determined to no longer be the conference doormat with a Virginia team that's in free-fall after a good start to the season. What do you get? A 28-17 upset.
#67 Temple at #35 Navy (82.2%). Temple returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown and rang up a 41-yard touchdown pass with less than three minutes left. Last year Temple visited Navy and lost 33-27 in 158 plays. This year they won 27-24 in 150 plays. The offense was the same, but the Temple defense got the stops they needed.
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