Friday, March 3, 2017

2017 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Hello from the 2017 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

Another year has passed and there's been some major strides in college football analytics. Behind the scenes there's been good work at Football Study Hall, and I really wish I had more time to do the kind of analysis and data collection they're doing over there.

Given that it's the college football offseason, there's not too much happening football-wise on an ongoing basis right now. During the regular season you can expect to find weekly posts showcasing
We invite you to look at some of the "best of" we've produced, as other posts of interest, including
This is all on top of predictions for each and every game between two FBS teams.

We just finished our first full season of new Formula One coverage. (I've been a huge fan of F1 my whole life, so this is an exciting moment for me.) We've created an Elo rating system for F1 drivers going back to 1980. Want the definitive answer on Prost versus Senna? Senna versus Schumacher? The most dominant F1 season in the last 36 years? The drivers with the best peak career ratings? We're working on that, plus up-to-date ratings for the current season.

All-in-all it's grown into a pretty complicated system backed by a lot of code we've written over the last few years. If you have any questions or feedback for us, don't hesitate to leave a comment here or hit us up on Twitter.

Enjoy the conference, and we hope to see you there.

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Monday, January 16, 2017

Final Standings: Top 25 — TFG

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page
Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama  ( 13 - 1 ) 0.977 0.739 1 28.2 1 6.9 1 166.7 93
2 -- Ohio St.  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.940 0.646 9 23.9 10 8.5 2 169.1 79
3 +1 Clemson  ( 13 - 1 ) 0.937 0.723 2 26.4 3 9.5 4 180.1 19
4 -1 Michigan  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.933 0.576 41 24.8 5 9.2 3 162.7 108
5 -- Washington  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.880 0.583 36 24.1 9 11.4 9 165.1 100
6 -- Wisconsin  ( 11 - 3 ) 0.871 0.586 35 20.2 28 9.9 7 158.3 116
7 -- LSU  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.868 0.716 3 19.9 34 9.8 6 155.3 125
8 -- Florida St.  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.863 0.692 6 24.5 6 12.3 12 167.1 91
9 -- Auburn  ( 7 - 5 ) 0.837 0.704 5 19.1 40 10.3 8 168.1 84
10 -- Oklahoma  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.836 0.576 43 27.0 2 14.6 35 173.1 54
11 +1 Penn State  ( 11 - 3 ) 0.817 0.576 42 24.3 7 13.8 24 171.2 63
12 -1 Florida  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.810 0.634 11 16.8 62 9.7 5 156.2 124
13 -- Western Kentucky  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.807 0.411 93 24.1 8 14.1 29 171.8 57
14 -- USC  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.796 0.626 12 21.8 19 13.1 19 171.4 59
15 -- Virginia Tech  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.791 0.579 38 20.3 27 12.3 14 174.6 45
16 -- Louisville  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.789 0.554 50 23.4 12 14.2 31 170.9 67
17 -- Miami-FL  ( 8 - 4 ) 0.782 0.602 24 18.9 41 11.7 10 169.6 76
18 -- Western Michigan  ( 12 - 1 ) 0.771 0.391 100 23.6 11 15.0 41 156.3 122
19 -- SDSU  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.758 0.381 103 20.3 26 13.3 20 157.0 120
20 -- Appalachian St.  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.734 0.350 118 17.6 53 12.0 11 162.2 109
21 +1 Temple  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.726 0.404 95 18.5 43 12.8 18 156.2 123
22 -1 Texas A&M  ( 7 - 5 ) 0.725 0.635 10 19.6 36 13.6 23 181.0 17
23 -- Memphis  ( 7 - 5 ) 0.723 0.510 67 19.9 31 13.9 27 180.1 20
24 -- Stanford  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.720 0.552 52 17.6 54 12.3 15 159.2 114
25 -- Oklahoma St.  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.719 0.557 48 21.5 21 15.1 44 176.0 35
Rankings through games of 2017-01-15

New entries: none.

Dropped out: none.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Final Standings: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: Clemson (0.006); South Carolina (0.001)

Biggest drops: Mississippi (-0.011); Arkansas (-0.010); Florida (-0.007); Texas A&M (-0.005); Alabama (-0.005)

Full rankings after the jump.

Final Standings: Top 25 — RBA

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page
Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama  ( 13 - 1 ) 0.963 0.555 8 25.7 5 5.2 1 158.0 128
2 -- Ohio St.  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.922 0.532 52 25.1 7 7.1 2 162.3 115
3 -- Michigan  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.877 0.548 20 24.3 10 8.8 4 164.9 99
4 -- USC  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.868 0.536 44 25.7 4 9.3 6 167.9 67
5 -- LSU  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.858 0.555 9 27.3 1 10.4 9 160.1 124
6 -- Washington  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.848 0.546 26 27.0 2 11.1 13 169.0 55
7 -- Clemson  ( 13 - 1 ) 0.835 0.537 39 22.5 15 9.7 7 170.3 41
8 -- Auburn  ( 7 - 5 ) 0.822 0.559 4 21.3 25 10.0 8 161.5 119
9 -- Wisconsin  ( 11 - 3 ) 0.817 0.536 43 20.7 31 9.3 5 160.9 120
10 -- Oklahoma  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.794 0.547 24 26.6 3 12.9 23 172.9 19
11 -- Miami-FL  ( 8 - 4 ) 0.781 0.551 16 20.7 30 10.9 10 164.1 111
12 -- Florida  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.781 0.560 3 16.4 68 7.4 3 160.8 121
13 -- Washington St.  ( 8 - 4 ) 0.772 0.540 34 23.0 14 12.6 21 174.6 10
14 -- Florida St.  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.772 0.543 31 20.7 32 11.1 12 166.0 83
15 -- Louisville  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.769 0.490 73 23.7 11 13.0 24 165.6 86
16 -- Texas A&M  ( 7 - 5 ) 0.762 0.547 23 19.4 43 11.0 11 174.6 11
17 -- Colorado  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.753 0.553 13 19.2 46 11.3 15 171.0 36
18 -- Stanford  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.752 0.541 33 19.6 39 11.5 16 165.1 95
19 -- Western Michigan  ( 12 - 1 ) 0.745 0.465 89 23.1 13 14.4 41 168.8 57
20 -- Penn State  ( 11 - 3 ) 0.741 0.534 48 21.6 23 13.1 26 165.3 92
21 -- BYU  ( 8 - 4 ) 0.734 0.499 65 18.0 51 11.2 14 172.0 25
22 -- West Virginia  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.724 0.537 40 19.4 42 11.6 17 171.9 26
23 -- Virginia Tech  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.721 0.522 58 19.4 41 12.2 19 162.1 117
24 -- Temple  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.720 0.481 78 19.3 44 13.2 27 162.2 116
25 -- Houston  ( 8 - 4 ) 0.715 0.469 86 19.3 45 14.1 34 177.5 5
Rankings through games of 2017-01-15

New entries: none.

Dropped out: none.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Final Standings: Full Rankings — RBA

Biggest jumps: Clemson (0.006); Alabama (0.001)

Biggest drops: (none)

Full rankings after the jump.

Saturday, December 10, 2016

Week 15: Saturday Predictions

 99Army24
 42Navy32
 87Army21
 39Navy35


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Monday, December 5, 2016

Week 15: Top 25 — TFG

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page
Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama  ( 12 - 0 ) 0.980 0.682 4 29.0 1 6.7 1 163.7 102
2 -- Ohio St.  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.962 0.611 21 27.0 2 8.0 2 170.8 65
3 -- Michigan  ( 10 - 2 ) 0.953 0.570 42 25.7 5 8.3 3 161.9 107
4 -- Clemson  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.902 0.607 23 24.6 8 10.7 8 179.2 25
5 +1 Washington  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.898 0.532 59 26.0 4 11.5 11 165.6 97
6 -1 Wisconsin  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.873 0.591 30 20.4 26 9.9 5 160.4 112
7 -- Auburn  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.866 0.685 3 19.8 34 9.8 4 167.5 87
8 -- LSU  ( 6 - 4 ) 0.846 0.710 2 19.9 31 10.5 7 154.6 124
9 +1 Penn State  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.841 0.585 34 24.0 10 12.8 20 169.1 78
10 -1 Florida St.  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.830 0.621 18 22.4 16 12.3 18 166.2 94
11 +1 Oklahoma  ( 10 - 2 ) 0.821 0.543 53 26.5 3 14.9 42 172.6 55
12 -1 Louisville  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.817 0.495 71 24.9 7 14.2 34 170.6 66
13 +1 USC  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.803 0.626 13 20.7 24 12.2 17 170.1 72
14 -1 Western Kentucky  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.802 0.391 98 23.8 11 14.0 30 171.6 58
15 +5 Temple  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.793 0.424 85 18.7 44 11.3 10 154.2 125
16 -1 Western Michigan  ( 12 - 0 ) 0.790 0.349 114 24.1 9 14.7 38 158.2 119
17 +1 Iowa  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.782 0.532 58 18.3 50 11.3 9 163.8 101
18 +1 Virginia Tech  ( 8 - 4 ) 0.782 0.559 47 20.2 30 12.5 19 173.6 51
19 -2 Florida  ( 8 - 4 ) 0.756 0.624 16 16.0 70 10.5 6 157.2 122
20 +1 Memphis  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.755 0.495 70 20.4 29 13.3 24 179.4 22
21 +1 Miami-FL  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.753 0.577 38 18.4 49 12.1 14 170.6 67
22 +1 Texas A&M  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.747 0.637 11 19.7 35 13.1 22 181.6 17
23 -7 Colorado  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.747 0.638 10 17.4 57 11.6 12 183.8 11
24 +1 Stanford  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.742 0.568 43 18.0 53 12.1 15 158.8 118
25 -1 Washington St.  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.742 0.562 44 21.7 19 14.6 37 176.9 35
Rankings through games of 2016-12-04

New entries: none.

Dropped out: none.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 15: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: LA-Lafayette (0.071); Idaho (0.059); Kansas St. (0.053); Ohio (0.037); Georgia Southern (0.030)

Biggest drops: TCU (-0.060); Colorado (-0.050); Navy (-0.040); Georgia State (-0.037); Florida (-0.031)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 15: Top 25 — RBA

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page
Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama  ( 12 - 0 ) 0.960 0.555 9 26.0 5 5.1 1 157.8 128
2 -- Ohio St.  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.922 0.531 52 25.3 7 7.0 2 162.2 116
3 -- Michigan  ( 10 - 2 ) 0.877 0.548 20 23.9 13 8.3 4 164.9 99
4 +1 LSU  ( 6 - 4 ) 0.859 0.555 8 27.2 1 10.6 9 160.1 124
5 -1 USC  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.854 0.535 44 25.5 6 9.1 5 167.8 67
6 +1 Washington  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.839 0.545 28 27.0 2 11.1 15 169.1 56
7 +3 Clemson  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.830 0.535 47 22.5 15 10.0 8 170.1 42
8 -2 Wisconsin  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.826 0.536 39 20.5 34 9.3 6 161.1 120
9 -1 Auburn  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.822 0.557 6 21.5 23 9.7 7 161.5 119
10 +3 Oklahoma  ( 10 - 2 ) 0.790 0.546 25 26.6 3 13.2 28 172.9 19
11 -- Louisville  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.783 0.489 74 24.1 12 13.1 25 165.7 86
12 -- Stanford  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.779 0.542 32 19.7 40 11.6 18 165.1 94
13 -4 Florida  ( 8 - 4 ) 0.779 0.560 3 16.0 72 8.2 3 160.9 121
14 -- Washington St.  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.774 0.540 34 24.4 10 13.0 24 174.7 10
15 +1 Miami-FL  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.771 0.550 16 20.6 32 10.9 13 164.1 109
16 -1 Colorado  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.768 0.552 13 19.9 38 10.7 11 171.0 35
17 +2 Texas A&M  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.758 0.547 24 19.4 45 10.7 10 174.6 11
18 -1 Western Michigan  ( 12 - 0 ) 0.757 0.465 90 24.5 8 14.5 43 169.0 58
19 -1 Florida St.  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.755 0.541 33 20.7 30 11.1 14 166.0 83
20 -- Houston  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.738 0.469 87 20.4 37 13.3 30 177.7 5
21 -- BYU  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.737 0.500 65 18.4 52 10.8 12 172.1 25
22 +3 West Virginia  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.729 0.536 41 19.6 42 11.5 17 171.9 26
23 NA Penn State  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.725 0.533 49 21.2 25 12.8 23 165.2 93
24 NA Virginia Tech  ( 8 - 4 ) 0.718 0.521 58 19.4 46 12.3 21 162.0 117
25 -2 Arkansas  ( 6 - 5 ) 0.717 0.574 1 22.3 16 15.1 46 164.0 111
Rankings through games of 2016-12-04

New entries: Penn State, Virginia Tech.

Dropped out: Kansas St., North Carolina.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 15: Full Rankings — RBA

Biggest jumps: Western Kentucky (0.044); Virginia Tech (0.043); Temple (0.038); Penn State (0.033); Clemson (0.027)

Biggest drops: SDSU (-0.092); Kansas St. (-0.075); Florida (-0.033); Baylor (-0.033); LA Tech (-0.032)

Full rankings after the jump.