Week 4: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Sep 22 02:59:04 2013

LA-Lafayette	35	Akron	30	Final
Colorado St.	6	Alabama	31	Final
LA-Monroe	7	Baylor	70	Final
Utah	20	BYU	13	Final
New Mexico St.	13	UCLA	59	Final
Toledo	38	Central Michigan	17	Final
Michigan	24	Connecticut	21	Final
Pittsburgh	58	Duke	55	Final
Ball St.	51	Eastern Michigan	20	Final
Middle Tenn.	48	FL-Atlantic	35	Final
Tennessee	17	Florida	31	Final
North Carolina	20	Georgia Tech	28	Final
North Texas	21	Georgia	45	Final
Missouri	45	Indiana	28	Final
Western Michigan	3	Iowa	59	Final
LA Tech	10	Kansas	13	Final
Auburn	21	LSU	35	Final
FIU	0	Louisville	72	Final
West Virginia	0	Maryland	37	Final
Vanderbilt	24	Massachusetts	7	Final
Arkansas St.	7	Memphis	31	Final
Cincinnati	14	Miami-OH	0	Final
SJSU	24	Minnesota	43	Final
Troy	7	Mississippi St.	62	Final
Hawaii	9	Nevada	31	Final
Michigan St.	13	Notre Dame	17	Final
Kent St.	0	Penn State	34	Final
Houston	31	Rice	26	Final
Arkansas	24	Rutgers	28	Final
Oregon St.	34	SDSU	30	Final
Utah St.	14	USC	17	Final
Arizona St.	28	Stanford	42	Final
Tulane	17	Syracuse	52	Final
SMU	13	Texas A&M	42	Final
Texas State	7	Texas Tech	33	Final
Kansas St.	21	Texas	31	Final
UTSA	32	UTEP	13	Final
Wyoming	56	Air Force	23	Final
Wake Forest	25	Army	11	Final
Marshall	21	Virginia Tech	29	Final
Idaho	0	Washington St.	42	Final
Purdue	10	Wisconsin	41	Final

Week 4: Friday Predictions

52 Fresno St. 33  47 Boise St. 30

54 Fresno St. 31  44 Boise St. 27

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 4: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sat Sep 21 00:54:03 2013

Boise St.

40

Fresno St.

41

Final

Week 4: Thursday Predictions

38 North Carolina St. 29  13 Clemson 32

59 North Carolina St. 28  20 Clemson 31

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 4: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Thu Sep 19 23:29:12 2013

Clemson

26

North Carolina St.

14

Final

Week 4: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Maryland (0.120); Auburn (0.114); Louisville (0.097); Illinois (0.095); UTSA (0.090)

Biggest drops: Arkansas St. (-0.127); Boise St. (-0.117); Kent St. (-0.094); LA Tech (-0.093); Nevada (-0.089)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 4: Top 25 -- RBA

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	0.950	0.552	12	26.5	3	6.9	1	156.3	125
2	+1	Florida St.	0.875	0.547	22	26.9	2	7.6	2	165.4	85
3	+2	Oregon	0.875	0.532	50	29.5	1	9.5	8	177.0	3
4	-2	South Carolina	0.855	0.544	27	22.9	13	8.9	6	158.1	124
5	+1	Oklahoma	0.851	0.548	21	22.5	16	8.4	3	172.0	16
6	+1	LSU	0.839	0.549	18	26.4	5	10.7	11	160.4	117
7	+3	Michigan	0.833	0.544	28	23.0	12	12.6	26	166.4	72
8	+1	Stanford	0.830	0.542	33	20.4	25	10.7	10	166.8	67
9	-5	Notre Dame	0.822	0.567	3	18.0	43	10.0	9	164.3	98
10	+2	Oklahoma St.	0.806	0.552	13	23.4	10	13.7	41	174.5	8
11	--	Florida	0.805	0.561	5	16.9	50	8.8	5	161.1	116
12	+2	Wisconsin	0.798	0.533	47	21.9	18	10.7	12	161.6	114
13	-5	Texas A&M	0.798	0.557	8	26.0	6	13.6	36	173.7	10
14	-1	Georgia	0.796	0.547	23	24.6	7	12.5	25	160.2	118
15	+1	Ohio St.	0.786	0.528	56	22.7	14	12.4	23	160.1	119
16	+1	Cincinnati	0.760	0.504	65	18.2	39	12.2	20	168.9	32
17	-2	Kansas St.	0.757	0.532	48	24.2	8	13.7	40	165.5	82
18	+3	Penn State	0.749	0.537	40	18.3	38	10.9	13	164.5	94
19	--	Miami-FL	0.730	0.554	10	23.0	11	11.8	17	162.7	108
20	--	Clemson	0.726	0.530	52	23.5	9	13.9	42	168.2	45
21	NA	Louisville	0.706	0.487	74	20.0	29	12.7	30	165.5	83
22	+2	Arizona St.	0.706	0.536	41	22.6	15	13.6	37	174.7	6
23	NA	Michigan St.	0.693	0.546	24	13.8	88	8.7	4	167.0	65
24	NA	BYU	0.689	0.482	77	16.0	63	9.4	7	169.4	29
25	-3	Vanderbilt	0.688	0.550	17	19.9	31	12.7	28	162.2	110

Rankings through games of 2013-09-15

New entries: Louisville, Michigan St., BYU.

Dropped out: Boise St., Oregon St., USC.

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 4: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Indiana (0.207); South Florida (0.148); North Texas (0.116); USC (0.095); Purdue (0.093)

Biggest drops: Bowling Green (-0.181); Northern Ill. (-0.149); Kent St. (-0.122); Michigan (-0.104); Tennessee (-0.101)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 4: Top 25 -- TFG

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	0.962	0.749	5	30.9	3	9.2	2	153.8	119
2	--	Oregon	0.951	0.574	34	31.4	2	10.3	6	175.3	25
3	+1	Florida St.	0.933	0.524	50	25.7	6	9.6	4	154.6	118
4	+3	Texas A&M	0.893	0.788	1	33.0	1	14.9	40	183.4	9
5	-2	Wisconsin	0.889	0.510	60	22.4	20	10.3	7	157.2	112
6	--	Oklahoma	0.885	0.547	41	21.2	29	9.8	5	167.8	55
7	+3	Florida	0.875	0.668	16	17.8	52	8.5	1	160.9	92
8	+3	LSU	0.870	0.536	44	24.3	11	11.9	14	158.9	104
9	-4	Stanford	0.855	0.521	54	21.9	22	11.2	9	156.2	115
10	+5	Miami-FL	0.846	0.416	87	23.6	13	12.4	17	160.3	98
11	+5	UCF	0.836	0.318	111	23.3	16	12.7	20	152.6	122
12	--	Georgia	0.823	0.726	7	25.8	5	14.5	33	164.5	69
13	+6	Clemson	0.820	0.697	10	25.5	7	14.4	31	179.3	16
14	-1	South Carolina	0.814	0.703	9	22.0	21	12.6	19	158.5	105
15	NA	Arizona St.	0.811	0.737	6	24.8	9	14.3	29	180.4	13
16	+6	Michigan St.	0.801	0.492	67	15.6	78	9.2	3	168.7	53
17	+1	Oklahoma St.	0.798	0.540	43	24.6	10	14.7	35	184.6	6
18	-4	Ohio St.	0.796	0.443	81	23.5	15	14.1	28	166.7	58
19	+1	Baylor	0.796	0.472	77	29.3	4	17.6	69	185.8	3
20	+1	Penn State	0.793	0.530	47	19.5	37	11.7	12	168.4	54
21	-12	Notre Dame	0.791	0.576	31	19.7	36	12.0	15	163.9	78
22	-14	Michigan	0.778	0.416	86	23.6	14	14.7	36	158.2	108
23	-6	Kansas St.	0.773	0.405	89	25.4	8	16.0	49	156.7	113
24	NA	USC	0.770	0.479	74	18.8	43	11.9	13	155.7	116
25	NA	UCLA	0.768	0.611	27	21.6	25	13.8	26	176.2	20

Rankings through games of 2013-09-15

New entries: Arizona St., USC, UCLA.

Dropped out: Nebraska, Washington, Oregon St..

In last week's top 25 we looked at some of the candidates to catch up with Alabama. A&M had their shot, and hung 42 points on Alabama over 167 plays; that's better than the 29 points in 166 plays the Aggies got in Tuscaloosa last year. Yet it wasn't their offense that let them down; it was their defense. Over a 24 minute stretch spanning the first quarter to the third quarter, Alabama put up 35 unanswered points. Once the score hit 35-14, the in-game odds had Alabama as a 93% lock to win the game. Even after A&M pulled to within a touchdown with eight minutes left in the game, A&M's odds didn't bump above 14%; Alabama was too good, had already scored too many points, and there wasn't enough time left.

Even though the Aggies lost, they still accomplished two things: they proved that they had the best offense in FBS -- currently weighing in at a stunning 33.0 PPH -- and they put enough of a dent in Alabama's defensive rating that the Crimson Tide actually look vulnerable to Oregon.

Oregon had played two middle-of-the-road FBS teams so far, and gone 59-points-versus-two-scores on both of them. Last week we said they needed to get their defensive rating down to 8.4 PPH in order to pull even with Alabama; thanks to Alabama's difficulties with A&M, that target has been adjusted to 9.3 PPH (another -1.0 PPH). If they can continue their good defensive showing against another middle-of-the-road team (#63 California) they have a realistic shot to pull even with Alabama. Unlike previous years, it doesn't look like Stanford or USC will be a serious threat to Oregon, but the Ducks have gotten tripped up before.

Next up is Florida State. The Seminoles easily defeated Nevada, and realistically won't get challenged again until October 19th when they have to visit #13 Clemson. After that they have a visit from a rejuvenated #10 Miami-Florida, and a trip to #7 Florida in what could end up being an interesting twist in the national title race.

Further down the top 25, we have what could be one of the most bipolar teams in FBS right now: Michigan State. The Spartans have a truly elite defense -- effectively tied with Alabama for the second-best in FBS -- but an offense that's one spot below Troy (Troy?!) in the rankings. If Michigan State could improve their offense to just a shade above average, they could be a top-10 team.

As always, keep watching this space for more info about the pick'em, improved in-game odds, improved models, and new features. And find us on Twitter:


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 3: Saturday Predictions

35 Arizona 40  78 UTSA 28

58 Arizona 49 106 UTSA 21

26 Arizona St. 27   3 Wisconsin 29

24 Arizona St. 27  14 Wisconsin 28

47 Arkansas 34 108 Southern Miss. 20

36 Arkansas 45 104 Southern Miss. 13

112 Army 19   5 Stanford 37

101 Army 17   9 Stanford 35

59 Auburn 24  57 Mississippi St. 22

79 Auburn 21  39 Mississippi St. 28

69 California 26  14 Ohio St. 33

69 California 21  16 Ohio St. 34

101 Colorado 31  55 Fresno St. 37

114 Colorado 24  53 Fresno St. 41

80 Connecticut 25  65 Maryland 24

75 Connecticut 24  83 Maryland 21

71 Duke 31  41 Georgia Tech 33

68 Duke 31  54 Georgia Tech 35

32 East Carolina 27  45 Virginia Tech 22

85 East Carolina 24  50 Virginia Tech 31

4 Florida St. 42  83 Nevada 22

3 Florida St. 45  64 Nevada 14

122 Idaho 22  50 Northern Ill. 36

123 Idaho 17  47 Northern Ill. 45

58 Illinois 24  24 Washington 28

109 Illinois 24  42 Washington 31

81 Indiana 28  42 Bowling Green 31

88 Indiana 24  38 Bowling Green 34

66 Iowa St. 26  61 Iowa 24

49 Iowa St. 31  67 Iowa 20

17 Kansas St. 45 124 Massachusetts 15

15 Kansas St. 62 125 Massachusetts 10

92 Kentucky 23  27 Louisville 30

94 Kentucky 20  44 Louisville 34

11 LSU 37  68 Kent St. 23

7 LSU 41  63 Kent St. 14

8 Michigan 47 119 Akron 17

10 Michigan 56 118 Akron 7

106 Middle Tenn. 29 102 Memphis 28

100 Middle Tenn. 34 117 Memphis 24

23 Nebraska 35  28 UCLA 30

45 Nebraska 34  41 UCLA 28

121 New Mexico St. 30  94 UTEP 36

122 New Mexico St. 31  97 UTEP 35

95 North Texas 27  72 Ball St. 29

96 North Texas 27  70 Ball St. 31

29 Northwestern 40  88 Western Michigan 25

31 Northwestern 38  92 Western Michigan 17

89 Ohio 32  70 Marshall 34

108 Ohio 27  86 Marshall 35

6 Oklahoma 32  64 Tulsa 19

6 Oklahoma 35  65 Tulsa 13

2 Oregon 46  46 Tennessee 28

5 Oregon 48  57 Tennessee 20

21 Penn State 24  16 UCF 23

21 Penn State 31  37 UCF 17

56 Pittsburgh 32 105 New Mexico 20

48 Pittsburgh 38 113 New Mexico 10

99 Purdue 20   9 Notre Dame 32

76 Purdue 13   4 Notre Dame 35

63 Rice 34 103 Kansas 24

72 Rice 38 102 Kansas 21

51 Rutgers 37 117 Eastern Michigan 18

33 Rutgers 38 115 Eastern Michigan 14

115 South Alabama 30  90 Western Kentucky 33

116 South Alabama 24  80 Western Kentucky 31

13 South Carolina 31  40 Vanderbilt 23

2 South Carolina 34  22 Vanderbilt 17

91 South Florida 30 123 FL-Atlantic 15

89 South Florida 41 121 FL-Atlantic 17

37 USC 27  85 Boston College 19

25 USC 34  95 Boston College 10

33 Texas 34  43 Mississippi 29

28 Texas 34  32 Mississippi 28

7 Texas A&M 32   1 Alabama 33

8 Texas A&M 24   1 Alabama 27

116 UNLV 32 111 Central Michigan 31

111 UNLV 28  99 Central Michigan 34

36 Utah 28  25 Oregon St. 27

61 Utah 24  23 Oregon St. 28

113 Wake Forest 27 104 LA-Monroe 25

98 Wake Forest 27  78 LA-Monroe 28

44 West Virginia 17 NA Georgia State 10

40 West Virginia 17 124 Georgia State 3

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.