A New Look

As you can see, we've done a slight redesign of the site this week. This redesign is the first step in a larger effort to provide better and more extensive analysis in a way that's a treat for your brain while being a joy for your eyes. The 2011-2012 season at TFG will include

• a Tuesday trivia segment;
• ongoing projections for all 120 FBS teams;
• in-depth analysis of championship contenders;
• in-depth analysis of previous champions;
• break-downs of all 36 (yes, 36) bowl games; PLUS
• all the usual goodies you've come to expect (weekly rankings, predictions, and commentary).

Watch this space for more updates, and enjoy the off-season!

2010 - 2011: Final Rankings -- RBA

Full rankings after the jump.

2010 - 2011: Final Top 25 -- RBA

Better late than never, right?  Presenting the final top 25 for Regression-Based Analysis:

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS	Off Pts	Def Pts	Pace
001	--	Stanford	1.0000	0.5491	26.4	9.9	83.8
001	--	TCU	1.0000	0.4654	25.5	7.8	84.2
003	--	Alabama	0.9915	0.5507	26.1	7.0	78.8
004	--	Boise St.	0.9829	0.4608	26.6	8.6	84.6
005	--	Oregon	0.9746	0.5314	26.5	9.8	87.9
006	--	Ohio St.	0.9580	0.5291	26.1	8.1	79.8
007	--	Auburn	0.9492	0.5474	26.6	12.7	79.5
007	--	Oklahoma	0.9492	0.5439	24.5	8.2	85.3
009	--	Virginia Tech	0.9316	0.5301	24.9	8.4	79.1
010	--	LSU	0.9286	0.5459	22.5	8.9	80.3
010	--	Nebraska	0.9286	0.5285	21.5	9.4	83.5
012	--	Wisconsin	0.9204	0.5348	26.6	13.8	81.1
012	--	Iowa	0.9204	0.5218	18.2	9.8	81.9
014	--	Florida	0.9196	0.5562	23.2	9.3	80.9
015	--	Oklahoma St.	0.9189	0.5481	24.4	12.7	85.9
016	--	Arkansas	0.9035	0.5638	26.2	12.4	82.6
017	--	Florida St.	0.9018	0.5532	17.9	10.6	83.2
018	--	West Virginia	0.8673	0.5372	17.5	9.5	82.8
019	--	South Carolina	0.8571	0.5463	24.1	12.4	78.9
020	--	Georgia	0.8522	0.5502	26.4	10.4	79.7
021	--	Missouri	0.8496	0.5206	18.4	9.2	87.0
022	--	Mississippi St.	0.8257	0.5592	20.5	10.9	81.1
023	--	Nevada	0.8230	0.4673	23.3	14.5	85.1
024	--	Arizona	0.8198	0.5570	19.0	9.7	83.5
025	--	Arizona St.	0.8142	0.5260	20.0	9.2	87.0

RBA agrees with Justin that Auburn is not a particularly memorable national champion, placing them 7th overall.  The same reasons apply:  close games and flaky defense.  RBA declares a split title between Stanford and TCU.  The two teams would likely play to a tie on a neutral field.

The "conference title" is effectively wrapped up by the SEC, placing a ridiculous eight teams in the top 25.  The biggest WTF comes from Georgia's inclusion.  This is a direct result of their flakiness.  When the Bulldogs show up, they are a powerful team.  When they don't, well... you saw what happened against UCF.

2010 - 2011: Final Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Tulsa (+9, 57 to 48); North Carolina State (+7, 33 to 26); Mississippi State (+7, 39 to 32); Syracuse (+7, 83 to 76).

Biggest drops: Michigan State (-8, 35 to 43); Navy (-6, 38 to 44); Connecticut (-6, 49 to 55); Hawaii (-6, 52 to 58).

Full rankings after the jump

2010 - 2011: Final Top 25 -- TFG

The season is over, the bowl games have been played, Auburn defeated Oregon 22-19, and your TFG National Champion is ...

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS	Off Pts	Def Pts	Pace
001	--	TCU	0.9342	0.4520	28.0	9.1	80.7
002	--	Boise St.	0.9333	0.4287	28.6	9.3	82.8
003	+1	Alabama	0.9251	0.6464	27.8	9.5	77.7
004	-1	Ohio St.	0.9103	0.5275	25.4	9.5	80.5
005	+1	Oregon	0.8690	0.5691	26.0	11.8	92.3
006	+2	Stanford	0.8616	0.5987	29.6	13.7	80.9
007	--	Oklahoma	0.8530	0.6022	23.4	11.2	91.8
008	-3	Virginia Tech	0.8484	0.5858	27.7	13.3	78.7
009	--	LSU	0.8368	0.6407	24.4	12.2	78.3
010	--	Auburn	0.8330	0.6619	29.1	14.9	83.4
011	+2	Florida	0.8075	0.6583	23.9	13.2	81.7
012	+3	Arkansas	0.7995	0.6583	27.2	15.2	84.2
013	-2	Iowa	0.7977	0.5639	21.1	11.7	80.8
014	--	Wisconsin	0.7844	0.5468	28.8	16.7	78.9
015	-3	Nebraska	0.7802	0.5073	22.2	13.0	80.1
016	+2	Florida St.	0.7670	0.6519	25.0	15.2	81.4
017	+4	Oklahoma St.	0.7668	0.5335	24.4	14.8	89.6
018	-1	Missouri	0.7592	0.5450	20.2	12.3	85.2
019	--	South Carolina	0.7554	0.6837	24.1	15.0	79.2
020	-4	West Virginia	0.7500	0.5367	18.9	11.9	81.4
021	+3	Notre Dame	0.7326	0.5989	19.6	12.8	84.7
022	-2	Utah	0.7299	0.4878	21.9	14.5	81.0
023	--	Georgia	0.7162	0.6161	25.0	16.9	77.2
024	+1	USC	0.7101	0.5908	21.9	15.1	84.0
025	-3	Miami-FL	0.7045	0.6326	19.3	13.4	85.8

the TCU Horned Frogs?

New entries: none.

Dropped out: none.

Not only is TCU at the top of the TFG heap, but BCS champion Auburn is barely in the top 10 and behind three teams it defeated (Alabama, Oregon, and LSU).  How can that be?

Simple: TFG only looks at points, it doesn't actually look at victories. There's a disconnect between offense and defense, and given that Auburn's offense only averaged 24.7 PPG against the three teams ahead of it -- and gave up 21.0 PPG in those games -- it's not hard to see why the Tigers didn't overwhelm the computers. On top of that, the Tigers needed freak play after freak play to even get where they were, including

• a dropped TD pass by Clemson in OT;
• a last-minute field goal to beat Kentucky;
• three Alabama turnovers inside the Auburn 5;
• four failed attempts by the Ducks to punch it in from the 1 (yet they went 2-for-2 in 2pt conversions);
• a failure of the Ducks to get the easy 3 on a 4th-and-goal from the 1; and
• a tackle that was (correctly) called not-a-tackle in the closing minute of the title game.

I'm not pointing these out because I'm anti-Auburn or anti-SEC. The SEC was the best conference this year, but not for the main reason the pundits claimed ("Five titles in five years!!!!!!!!"). The SEC placed five teams in the top 12 and seven in the top 25. Auburn was the last team standing because (a) they were very good, and (b) they were amazingly lucky, in part thanks to some of the reasons listed above. But their defense remained suspect -- 7th-worst in the top 25 -- even as their offense placed just behind Stanford at 29.1 PPH.

So in the end it was entirely fitting that it was not Cam Newton punching through for the winning touchdown on a QB sneak (a play that would have sent the ESPN university into a rabid frenzy), but rather a freak failed tackle and a last-second field goal that gave Auburn the title. To the bitter end, they did it their way.

TCU, on the other hand, only had a close call against Wisconsin. Otherwise the Horned Frogs basically did what they needed to do to by winning and winning convincingly. The Wisconsin offense had been prolific -- albeit against inferior opposition -- and the TCU defense stopped it cold.

What would happen if 14-0 TCU played 14-0 Auburn? TFG says that (1) TCU would defeat (10) Auburn, 35-31, with 74% likelihood. That might be the debate of the offseason, but with TCU going to the Big East that will blunt some of the arguments over how non-AQ teams will get access to BCS bowls and the national championship game.

Let the debates continue, and we'll see you next year.

What's up with the ACC?

Part II in our trivia series examines the crazy world that is ACC football. Unpredictable and frustrating, even ESPN has given up on providing anything but head-scratching bewilderment at what's going on there. But is there any actual data to support the gut feeling that the ACC is an anything-goes-who-knows-who'll-win-this-one collection of teams? That is the question we examine today.

The first part of this is how we define "unpredictable". While it might be difficult to predict a single game correctly, given a large enough sample size and an accurate enough predictor we should be able to know how many we should get right (see: expected value). As a simple example, think of flipping a coin and trying to predict its behavior. If we always guess "heads" then we'll be wrong roughly half the time. But if I tell you I'm going to flip a coin 1,000 times and I want you to tell me how many heads will come up, 500 would be a good guess. If the coin is fair the answer should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 500.

Similarly, if over time our college football predictor is correct 75% of the time and I tell you there are 400 ACC conference games in our set, then we should be able to get roughly 300 correct. There might be stretches of bad luck where the predictor is wrong, and there will be some big upsets. But over time we should get nearly 75% correct.

With that in mind, let's see how our predictor holds up for each of the "Big Six" conferences. For each conference we'll look at the

• total number of games,
• number we expected to get right,
• number we actually got right; and
• ratio of actual to expected.

These results are from the 2003-2004 season until the 2010-2011 season.

Conference	Games Played	Predictions
		# Expected correct	% Expected correct	# Actually correct	% Actually correct	Actual / Expected
ACC	383	274.8	71.8	255	66.6	0.928
Big 10	352	255.8	72.7	262	74.4	1.024
Big XII	392	287.1	73.3	294	75.0	1.024
Big East	195	135.1	69.3	136	69.7	1.007
Pac-10	345	253.7	73.5	253	73.3	0.997
SEC	392	290.2	74.0	288	73.5	0.992

Over the course of eight years the ACC is (a) the second-most-difficult to predict, and (b) even then we don't get close to the expected value. For most conferences the predictions are within 2-3% of what we expect to get correct; even the Big 10 and Big XII are within 10, but for those we're under-estimating the number we should get correct.

Let's put this in perspective: the Big XII has 49 conference games per year (48 regular season plus the championship game) and the predictions miss about 2.4% of the time. That means every 6 years it gets a total of 7 games wrong. The ACC, on the other hand, has the same number of regular season games but hits the 7-wrong-games mark in less than two seasons. This 7-game deficit is compounded by the fact that the computer is already less confident about ACC games to start with. The raw data tells that tale well enough; the computer gets 3 out of every 4 Big XII games correct, while it struggles to get 2 out of every 3 ACC games correct.

Why does this happen? We're not entirely sure. The ACC tends to chew through coaches somewhat regularly, so a lack of consistency may lead to fewer predictable results. Similarly the ACC is offensively challenged, so a favored team falling behind may have difficulty catching up. Small, improbable events such as pick-6s, interceptions, fumbles, and other odd plays could have a greater-than-usual effect on the result.

Until we figure it out, we'll just have to rely on the ACC Wheel of Destiny.

The Biggest Upsets (at the time)

Our bowl previews are over but football season isn't over yet, so I've decided to pass the time posting some random trivia items I've run across digging through the numbers. The most improbable, the most shocking, and the most out-of-the-ordinary are the subject of this series. These questions will span the 2003-2004 to 2010-2011 seasons, and will exclude August and September games. Each year the computer needs a few weeks to really settle in and understand the teams for that year before it can make reasonably accurate predictions. So if you finish any of these articles and say, "What about when Upper Whargabl State upset Eastern Directional State in September of 2004?" then you'll know why it was left out.

With that we'll kick off this trivia bender with a simple question: what have been the five biggest upsets of the last eight years? In this case "upset" is defined as "game in which TFG was very confident in its prediction, but got it wrong". For each game I'll list the:

• matchup
• records of each team at the time of the game
• date of the game
• predicted score and confidence; and
• game result.

followed by some background a brief discussion of the game itself. The countdown is after the jump.

2010 Bowl Previews: Part XII

Part XII (the final part) of our bowl preview. Part XI was yesterday.

#2: BCS Championship (January 10, 2011)
Oregon Ducks (12-0, 9-0 Pac-10) vs. Auburn Tigers (13-0, 8-0 SEC)
GUGS: 72.6

Eddie: This is going to be the most fun title game in a long time.  (3) Oregon's offense should win the track meet with (8) Auburn's offense by a nose, 22.5 PPH to 21.4 PPH.  The fact that either team expects over 20.0 PPH against 0.840+ strength teams is a testament to their offensive fire power.  Although people like to think of the SEC as a defensively oriented conference, Auburn's defense is suspect at 17.4 PPH.  In fact, the Ducks hold a 3.4 PPH defensive advantage over the Tigers.  In the end, the numbers favor the Ducks, 34-31, with 64.7% confidence.
Justin: Based on the pre-bowl projections from each of the last 9 years going back to the Miami/Ohio State game of the 2002/2003 season, this will be the second-closest bowl game in recent history. Granted, the closest one was projected to be last year's Alabama/Texas game, and TFG is notoriously bad about National Championship games. Of the last 8, TFG should have gone around 5-3; the reality is that it's gone 3-5 (big thanks to Ohio State and Oklahoma for being on the wrong side of each of those 5). (6) Oregon has improved from last year and -- like most teams that play fast -- actually has a defense, regardless of what the press might say. It's actually a rather good defense, and only allows 11.7 PPH. With the exception of (4) Alabama, this will be the best defense the (10) Tigers have seen all year. At 185 plays per game, it will also be the fastest team the Tigers have seen all year. Auburn has an excellent offense, but a good-but-not-great defense, and that's what this game is going to come down to: can Auburn stop Oregon? This isn't a novel question, but it will be the deciding factor. TFG says no, and taps the Ducks to win the National Title, 38-36, but only with 57.6% confidence.

#1: Orange Bowl (January 3, 2011)
Stanford Cardinal (11-1, 8-1 Pac-10) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2, 8-0 ACC)
GUGS: 79.5

Justin: Ahh, (5) Virginia Tech. You're so lucky that TFG doesn't look at games against FCS opponents. FCS opponents like, say, James Madison. If TFG were to keep track of those games, the Hokies would undoubtedly be ranked lower thank they are now. That would really be problematic since their opponent is (8) Stanford, a team with a great offense and a solid defense. Fortunately TFG never heard about the JMU game and is convinced that the Hokies have an even better offense and defense than the Cardinal. Tech has a 0.4 PPH advantage on offense (noise) and a 1.6 PPH advantage on defense. This one will be amazingly close, feature top teams, and have a reasonable amount of scoring. There's a reason that GUGS thinks this will be the best game of the season -- even better than the national title game -- with the Hokies defeating the Cardinal, 36-34, but only with 56.9% confidence.
Eddie: RBA has this game as the closest of the bowl season.  Both teams are over 0.900 strength.  Both feature power running games and game-changing quarterbacks.  (2) Stanford has a slight offensive edge of 1.3 PPH and a slight 1.2 PPH defensive advantage.  The overall margin of 1.2 PPH is deceiving because it falls into the statistical noise range.  This game is effectively a toss-up, so either team can win it with a key interception, a long punt return, a blocked kick, or a freak catch in traffic.  Ladies and gentlemen, this is your game of the bowl season, and Stanford should be favored, 31-28, with 51.5% confidence.

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(8)	Stanford	34	(5)	Virginia Tech	36	56.9	(2)	Stanford	31	(5)	Virginia Tech	28	51.5
(10)	Auburn	36	(6)	Oregon	38	57.6	(8)	Auburn	31	(3)	Oregon	34	64.7

2010 Bowl Previews: Part XI

Part XI of our bowl previews. Part X was yesterday.

Today brings us to the top 5 bowl games of the season. Both TFG and RBA agree that all the remaining teams are in the top 26, and the matchups will be relatively even. For being so close, though, both Eddie and I agree on most of the outcomes.

#5: Alamo Bowl (December 29, 2010)
Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-2, 6-2 Big XII) vs. Arizona Wildcats (7-5, 4-5 Pac-10)
GUGS: 66.9

Justin: This game is going to be a slight contrast in styles. The (21) Cowboys have been solid most of the year, with their only losses coming to (7) Oklahoma and (12) Nebraska. Oklahoma State hasn't had any problems finding offense -- they tally an impressive 24.4 PPH -- but have struggled to slow down opponents enough, allowing 15.6 PPH. The Cowboys also play blazing-fast, averaging nearly 180 plays per game. The Wildcats have a stout defense that allows a mere 13.3 PPH, comparable to LSU; their offense struggles, though, not breaking the 20 PPH barrier. Arizona will be the underdog, but not as badly as conventional wisdom expects. TFG says that Cowboys are 3-point favorites, but only 54.6% likely to win. If Arizona finds some extra offense and can put their defense to good use, they'll have a shot at the victory.
Eddie: Both (18) Oklahoma State and (22) Arizona are known for their offenses, so conventional wisdom suggests this one should turn into a shootout.  However, RBA isn't so sure of that because both teams have drop-offs in performance against strong competition.  The Cowboys have a 2.6 PPH offensive advantage, but the Wildcats have a 0.9 PPH defensive advantage.  This game likely falls in the realm of statistical error, so it should take only one big play to decide this game.  RBA favors Oklahoma State, 28-27, with 56.8% confidence.

#4: Insight Bowl (December 28, 2010)
Missouri Tigers (10-2, 6-2 Big XII) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-5, 4-4 Big Ten)
GUGS: 69.2

Eddie:  Given the number of players that (12) Iowa has lost since their last game due to suspension and arrest, I'm tempted to call for a mulligan on this one.  Barring those losses, Iowa matches up well against the (20) Tigers.  The Hawkeyes hold a 2.1 PPH offensive advantage and a 2.2 PPH defensive advantage over Missouri, so they should manage a 27-21 victory with 54.5% confidence.
Justin: For those of you who aren't familiar with the back-story to Eddie's comment, (11) Iowa lost their leading receiver and running back to drug issues, and a few other players transferred. The one saving grace is that Iowa does it more with defense (11.2 PPH) than they do with offense (20.8 PPH). The (17) Tigers are somewhat lacking in offense, too (20.1 PPH), but have a similarly excellent defense (12.0 PPH). This is really going to come down to how much Iowa was hurt by the suspensions; while Iowa's defense won't need to get them much offense to win, they'll still need some offense. Pre-scandal, TFG said Iowa squeaks by Missouri, 28-27, but only with 56.6% confidence. This will truly be anyone's guess.

#3: Chick-fil-A Bowl (December 31, 2010)
South Carolina Gamecocks (9-4, 5-3 SEC) vs. Florida State Seminoles (9-4, 6-2 ACC)
GUGS: 69.6

Justin: This game will be about as close as it gets. The (18) Seminoles have the 13th-best offense in FBS (25.5 PPH) and a respectable defense (15.5 PPH). The (19) Gamecocks have the 14th-best offense (24.7 PPH) and a slightly better defense (15.0 PPH). Complicating things will be the fact that both teams play slow, so expect only about 160 plays in this game. A low play count means a freak interception, fumble, or long run could have a tremendous effect on the game's outcome. Even TFG's circuits are scratching their head over this one, as this will come down to a late drive or possibly even OT. For now TFG says the Seminoles by 2, but only with 50.1% confidence.
Eddie: This one should be very close.  (17) Florida State has been somewhat underrated this year because of their record, but they've had some freak losses over the course of the year, fumbling it away against NC State, missing two 4th quarter field goals, and losing their starter in a close loss to Virginia Tech.  (19) South Carolina has had the misfortune of playing Auburn twice and Arkansas and a brain fart against Kentucky.  Both are very good teams, so this should be a great matchup.  The Gamecocks and the Seminoles are dead even defensively, but Florida State holds a 1.0 PPH offensive advantage.  That's statistical noise, as far as I'm concerned.  RBA favors the Seminoles, 28-27, with 59.6% confidence.

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(26)	Arizona	32	(21)	Oklahoma St.	35	54.9	(22)	Arizona	27	(18)	Oklahoma St.	28	56.7
(11)	Iowa	28	(17)	Missouri	27	56.6	(12)	Iowa	27	(20)	Missouri	21	54.4
(18)	Florida St.	35	(19)	South Carolina	33	50.1	(17)	Florida St.	28	(19)	South Carolina	27	59.2

2010 Bowl Previews: Part X

Part X of our bowl previews. Part IX was two days ago (we were off for Christmas).

Today's themes are "the ACC" and "consensus."

#8: Music City Bowl (December 30, 2010)
North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5, 4-4 ACC) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (6-6, 3-5 SEC)
GUGS: 56.9

Eddie:  I know that it was awarded to Gene Chizik with good reason, but my vote for SEC Coach of the Year would have to be for Derek Dooley.  By all accounts, (36) Tennessee has absolutely no business playing in a bowl game.  For that matter, neither does (29) North Carolina after they lost a ton of starters to NCAA rules violations.  Although UNC holds advantages both offensively (1.2 PPH) and defensively (2.6 PPH), this game should be surprisingly close because it is effectively a home game for the Volunteers.  The Tar Heels should pull out the victory with a game winning field goal, 27-24, with 55.9% confidence.
Justin: The (36) Tar Heels and the (47) Volunteers are slightly different variations on the same theme: weak offense, respectable defense, and methodical pace. Both teams are south of 20 PPH on offense and around 16 PPH on defense, but UNC has a 1.1 PPH advantage on offense and a 0.9 PPH advantage on defense. Those numbers add up to a profile that's going to make for a close game. Both teams are going to have to bring their best game and avoid mistakes if they want to have a shot at winning this game. TFG gives a slight nod to the Tar Heels, 30-28, but only with 56.7% confidence.

#7: Champs Sports Bowl (December 28, 2010)
West Virginia Mountaineers (9-3, 5-2 Big East) vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack (8-4, 5-3 ACC)
GUGS: 63.5

Justin: We see a huge jump in the GUGS ratings between the previous game and this one. Close losses to (83) Syracuse and (49) UConn -- the latter aided by seven fumbles -- deprived (16) West Virginia of the Big East title. The (33) Wolfpack had similar close losses to (29) Clemson and (59) Maryland -- the latter was particularly painful as the Wolfpack outplayed the Terrapins most of the game -- depriving them of a shot at the ACC title. This game features two teams that really deserve more respect than they've gotten this year, and should be good. Both teams have offenses in the neighborhood of 20.0 PPH, but the West Virginia defense is a beast, allowing a mere 11.9 PPH (8th in FBS). The Wolfpack will need to find offense if they want to have a shot, but TFG currently taps the Mountaineers to win this, 31-29 (63.0% confidence).
Eddie: Once known for its powerful offense under Rich Rodriguez, (14) West Virginia has reinvented itself as a defense-first team, yielding 7.7 +/- 3.5 PPH.  (31) NC State is an offense-first team at 29.1 +/- 17.0 PPH. As expected, the Wolfpack hold an offensive advantage, but it isn't as big as you would think at 0.7 PPH.  Meanwhile, the Mountaineers hold a 6.7 PPH defensive advantage that should lead them to a 27-21 victory with 56.6% confidence.

#6: Sun Bowl (December 31, 2010)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-5, 0-0 Ind) vs. Miami Hurricanes (7-5, 5-3 ACC)
GUGS: 64.5

Eddie: It's Catholics versus Convicts Redux!  I must express my extreme shock that (23) Miami's offense is the second most consistent in the country at 16.6 +/- 1.4 PPH.  I guess Jacory Harris throws picks with high consistency, resulting in a 2.0 PPH offensive advantage for the Hurricanes.  (33) Notre Dame has a slight 0.9 PPH disadvantage on defense, but that can fall into the statistical noise category.  RBA says Miami wins this one by a field goal, 24-21, at 54.3% confidence. Bonus points will be awarded if the kicker wields his helmet as a weapon after hitting the game winner.
Justin: TFG thinks this one will be good, featuring two evenly-matched teams in the top 25. I'd like to remind everyone once again that this is a computer and has no allegiance or sense of tradition. The (24) Fighting Irish are only in the top 25 because of the raw numbers, and the raw numbers say that Notre Dame has a decent offense and a great defense. The (22) Hurricanes have an identical defense, a slightly better offense (+0.7 PPH), and play at a nearly identical pace (+2.2 plays per game) as Notre Dame. This will be a reasonably fast-paced but low-ish-scoring game, where the Hurricanes win the coin flip for a 29-28 victory. There's only a 51.9% chance of them winning, though, which means calling this a "coin flip" isn't too much of a hyperbole.

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(36)	North Carolina	30	(47)	Tennessee	28	56.9	(29)	North Carolina	27	(36)	Tennessee	24	55.9
(33)	North Carolina St.	29	(16)	West Virginia	31	63.0	(31)	North Carolina St.	21	(14)	West Virginia	27	56.5
(22)	Miami-FL	29	(24)	Notre Dame	28	51.9	(23)	Miami-FL	24	(33)	Notre Dame	21	54.3