2009 - 2010: Final Top 25 -- TFG

The dust has settled, the title game has been played, your champions crowned, and we have our final TFG Top 25 for the 2009 - 2010 season.  You final #1 team this year is .....

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS	Off Pts	Def Pts	Pace
001	--	Florida	0.9523	0.6368	29.3	9.7	78.6
002	--	TCU	0.9470	0.5019	24.3	8.4	84.9
003	--	Alabama	0.9466	0.6488	25.2	8.7	80.5
004	--	Texas	0.9308	0.5410	28.0	10.7	86.5
005	--	Ohio St.	0.9291	0.5645	21.3	8.2	83.6
006	+2	Virginia Tech	0.9042	0.5929	25.3	11.0	81.1
007	-1	Oklahoma	0.9001	0.6799	20.8	9.2	91.1
008	+1	Boise St.	0.8956	0.3860	25.3	11.4	85.5
009	-2	Penn State	0.8887	0.5537	20.7	9.6	82.3
010	+4	Nebraska	0.8684	0.5555	19.3	9.6	82.3
011	+2	Iowa	0.8392	0.5800	19.7	10.7	81.9
012	-1	USC	0.8326	0.5635	19.7	10.8	85.4
013	-3	Texas Tech	0.8263	0.5739	25.5	14.3	90.3
014	-2	Oregon	0.8256	0.6321	22.7	12.8	92.7
015	--	LSU	0.8253	0.6216	19.7	11.1	82.9
016	+3	BYU	0.7935	0.4673	23.0	14.0	85.5
017	-1	Utah	0.7791	0.4587	20.5	12.9	87.0
018	--	Pittsburgh	0.7741	0.5675	22.2	14.1	83.3
019	-2	Cincinnati	0.7589	0.5733	22.7	14.8	87.8
020	+3	Mississippi	0.7503	0.6132	20.6	13.7	83.2
021	NA	Air Force	0.7418	0.4672	18.2	12.3	84.6
022	--	Clemson	0.7412	0.6032	20.3	13.8	84.1
023	-3	Miami-FL	0.7386	0.6430	20.6	14.0	83.9
024	-3	Georgia Tech	0.7264	0.6472	25.9	18.0	80.0
025	--	Arkansas	0.7230	0.6376	24.3	17.0	85.2

the Florida Gators??

New entries: Air Force.

Dropped out: Oregon State.

So after getting hammered by Alabama by a score of 32-13 in the SEC title game, how does Florida remain atop the Tempo-Free Gridiron rankings?  On top of that, how does TCU -- a team that lost their bowl game -- end up ranked ahead of Alabama?  The short answer?  Brian Kelly and six of TCU's regular-season opponents.

The computer had no idea that the Bearcats head coach took the Notre Dame job and left Cincinnati adrift.  I stand by original statement that Florida would dismantle Cincinnati, just not deliver the 51-24 pounding that we saw.  The computer assumed a normal, prepared, and motivated opponent for Florida, one that was top 25 material at the end of the season.  Clearly that team didn't show up, although even if a more disciplined Cincinnati team had taken the field TFG has doubts that they would have done any better.

I discussed a few weeks ago why TFG still had the Gators at #1 going into the bowl season, even after their loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship game.  It boiled down to a single game against the Crimson Tide not being able to undo a season's worth of total domination by the Gators and solid but occasionally rocky play by Alabama (see: Tennessee).  Unfortunately for Alabama, Florida drew a weak Bearcat team in the Sugar Bowl and then saw their opponent fall apart when their coach left.  Had the Gators actually pummeled a fully-prepared Cincy squad -- which TFG predicted as being within the realm of possibility -- then I'd feel more comfortable in my choice of Florida as the 2009-2010 TFG Champions.  Unfortunately we'll never know what would have happened, just what did happen in that car-accident-of-a-Sugar-Bowl.

So Florida trounces their opponent in order to stay ahead of Alabama.  TCU loses to Boise State and .. stays ahead of Alabama?  How does that work?

In short, TCU lost, but the teams they played earlier in the season went 6-0 in their bowl games.  Utah, Clemson, Air Force, BYU, Wyoming, and Southern Methodist all won, making TCU's victories over those teams -- especially their wins over Wyoming, Utah, and BYU -- all the more impressive.  Not to mention that in the Fiesta Bowl the Horned Frogs actually held high-flying Boise State to 17 points, their lowest score of the year.  It was just an unfortunate coincidence that TCU decided to have their most anemic offensive showing of the year on the same night, putting up only 10 points in 170 possessions for a raw offensive efficiency of 5.9 PPH.  Their previous low for the season was 8.5 PPH back in September against Clemson.

Which brings us to your BCS National Champions, the (3) Alabama Crimson Tide.  They finish the season more or less as they started it: with a top-10 offense but one of the most impressive defenses in the land, allowing a mere 8.7 PPH.  There may be something to the saying that defense wins championships (or at least bowl games), but that's a post for another day.  Instead I'll just leave you with the final 2009 - 2010 Tempo-Free Gridiron rankings.

2009 - 2010: Final Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: South Florida (+16, 71 to 55); Air Force (+11, 32 to 21); Middle Tennessee State (+11, 76 to 65); SMU (+11, 91 to 80).

Biggest drops: Arizona (-14, 26 to 40); Northern Illinois (-13, 59 to 72); Nevada (-8, 45 to 53); Fresno State (-8, 58 to 66).

Full rankings after the jump.

2009 - 2010: Final Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps:  SMU (+19, 67 to 48); Air Force (+15, 42 to 27); Florida State (+13, 65 to 52)

Biggest drops:  Houston (-12, 28 to 40); North Carolina (-11, 26 to 37); Nevada (-11, 30 to 41)

Full rankings after the jump.

2009 - 2010: Final Top 25 -- RBA

Presenting your final RBA top 25 for the 2009-2010 college football season and RBA National Champion Alabama Crimson Tide.

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS	Off Pts	Def Pts	Pace
001	+2	Alabama	1.0000	0.5813	20.5	7.0	80.5
002	--	Boise St.	0.9957	0.4487	25.0	10.7	82.6
003	-2	TCU	0.9915	0.5208	22.5	7.2	82.4
004	+3	Florida	0.9830	0.5633	22.3	7.1	77.6
005	+1	Iowa	0.9703	0.5594	15.3	9.8	79.4
006	+2	Ohio St.	0.9617	0.5321	18.2	7.3	81.1
007	-3	Texas	0.9576	0.5385	23.6	9.0	87.9
008	+1	Virginia Tech	0.9407	0.5548	20.9	9.3	79.9
009	-4	Cincinnati	0.9359	0.5143	21.8	14.0	83.7
010	--	Penn State	0.9353	0.4965	16.7	8.1	79.5
011	+1	Pittsburgh	0.9270	0.5329	20.3	12.8	79.3
012	-1	Oregon	0.9145	0.5776	22.3	12.7	88.0
013	--	Nebraska	0.9048	0.5151	16.0	6.4	81.6
014	+5	BYU	0.9021	0.4540	20.7	13.4	83.0
015	+2	LSU	0.8836	0.5461	16.3	9.3	80.4
016	-1	Texas Tech	0.8821	0.4931	20.2	12.4	92.1
017	-3	Georgia Tech	0.8717	0.5197	22.3	16.0	77.9
018	+3	Clemson	0.8667	0.5520	18.4	12.9	82.5
019	NA	Wisconsin	0.8540	0.5315	20.0	13.6	80.7
020	NA	Utah	0.8489	0.4540	17.2	12.5	84.9
021	+1	Oklahoma	0.8458	0.5959	18.4	8.4	90.5
022	+2	Arkansas	0.8438	0.5946	24.7	15.5	84.4
023	-7	Stanford	0.8326	0.4744	22.0	16.4	81.1
024	-6	West Virginia	0.8310	0.5390	16.0	12.7	82.2
025	-5	Miami-FL	0.8206	0.5674	19.4	12.9	81.8

New entries:  Wisconsin, Utah
Dropped out:  Arizona, Oregon State

Going into the Fiesta Bowl, RBA had (3) TCU and (2) Boise State listed as its top two teams in the country, so what caused the algorithm to change its mind and side with BCS big boy Bama?  It actually has more to do with how their common opponents played than how they played themselves.  Alabama was boosted by (4) Florida crushing (9) Cincinnati, whereas (2) Boise State was dragged down by (12) Oregon losing to (6) Ohio State.

Alabama and Boise State are separated by only 0.0043 points, so it's effectively a split championship.  However, in college football, there can be only one, and today, that one is Alabama.

2009 Bowl Summaries

The 2009-2010 bowl season is complete and so is our first Tempo-Free Gridiron bowl preview series.  I was very pleased with my algorithm's performance this year as it went 24-10 and placed in the 99.3rd percentile of the ESPN Bowl Pick'em challenge with 414 out of 595 possible points.  Eddie's Regression-Based Analysis approach also did well by going 20-14, good for the 95th percentile with 375 points.  Already we've started to discuss improvements for next year, ranging from parameter tweaks for existing formulas to large-scale rewrites of calculating efficiencies.

Greatest Hits

Justin: Normally this is where I'd say that my system identified (1) Florida against (17) Cincinnati as the biggest mismatch with the Gators as big favorites.  However this isn't entirely fair since the Bearcats lost their coach right after the regular season and who knows what Brian Kelly could have come up with to stop Tim Tebow's final farewell.  At the time I said "Florida are 5-to-1 favorites to win by 11 in the least competitive game this bowl season."  Instead I'll have to go with my pick of (32) Air Force over (39) Houston.  At one point the Cougars were ranked in the top 15 of the BCS and were darlings of the pollsters due to their high PPG.  However once you adjusted for tempo and quality of opponent, Houston's vaunted offense really wasn't even as powerful as that of (44) Florida State; they just quickly steamrolled over inferior competition.  This didn't fool TFG, though, as it saw through the frantic pace of Houston and the deliberate pace of Air Force and predicted an Air Force victory.
Eddie: I consider my crowning achievement to be (5) Iowa over (17) Georgia Tech.  It seemed like everybody -- save Justin and myself -- had Georgia Tech in this game that never really looked that close.  Iowa's offense may not be much, but their defense was rock solid, yet again.  I'd also like to put (26) Ole Miss over (35) Oklahoma State in this space because, although I missed the pick, everything followed suit except the score.  In a previous post, I said that "Mississippi commits turnovers in droves, averaging 2.3 per game, and supplements a consistently strong defense with a wildly erratic offense, depending on whether they decide to give Dexter McCluster the ball or not."  That's exactly what happened:  Ole Miss committed seven turnovers and outsmarted themselves by giving the ball to Jerrell Powe near the goal line instead of Dexter McCluster.  However, their defense saved their butts in the end by holding Oklahoma State on their own goal line stand and returning a fumble for a touchdown.
Justin: In addition to Iowa over Georgia Tech, there were six other games in which both Eddie and I chose against conventional wisdom.

• BYU over Oregon State
• Utah over Cal
• Navy over Missouri
• Ohio State over Oregon
• Northern Illinois over USF
• UConn over South Carolina

In all but one -- Northern Illinois was throttled by South Florida -- we correctly identified the winner.

Worst Misses

Eddie: Given that Justin picked it as his biggest victory, it makes sense to mention my biggest miss as (27) Air Force over (40) Houston.  I doubt Justin would claim that he saw Case Keenum's six interceptions in advance, but RBA still should have seen that Air Force sported a good defense that should neutralize Houston's passing attack.  Honorable mentions are SMU over Nevada and Wyoming over Fresno State.
Justin: My (45) Nevada against (91) SMU write-up in Part I contained the rather unfortunately line "[SMU's] adjusted efficiency margin of -7.5 PPH -- thanks to a weak defense that allows 24.2 PPH -- does not spell "competitive opponent"."  It's true that this game was a slaughter in which one team did not deserve to be on the field.  Unfortunately it was Nevada that appeared to be totally outclassed, losing 45-10 in a game where TFG said they were 4-to-1 favorites.

The Bowl Idiot

Justin: There were six games in which TFG and RBA disagreed about the outcome of the game.  I'm willing to call the Florida/Cincinnati game a mulligan for Eddie since the coaching turnover threw the statistics out the window.  That leaves five games for us to disagree, leading to the 2009 Bowl edition of "No, You're An Idiot".

New Orleans Bowl
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders vs Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
What Eddie said: "Although Southern Miss has an advantage in turnovers, it is offset my a more opportunistic Middle Tennessee defense."
What Justin said: "Both teams play at a frantic pace, but Southern Miss has the superior offense and hasn't played the creampuff schedule of Middle Tennessee, which ranks dead-last in their division."
Winner: MTSU.
Correct: Eddie.

EagleBank Bowl
UCLA Bruins vs Temple Owls
What Justin said: "This looks to be one of the closer bowl games, with Cal expected to prevail 27-24 in a 52.4% coin toss."
What Eddie said: "We expect Temple to put up 17.2 PPH as opposed to UCLA's 10.9 PPH and win impressively 28-17."
Winner: UCLA.
Correct: Justin.

Armed Forces Bowl
Houston Cougars vs Air Force Falcons
What Justin said: "The Falcon's 15th-ranked defense will be the toughest challenge for Houston to date, and TFG thinks it'll be enough to slow down their high-octane pace[.]"
What Eddie said: "When adjusted for opponent strength, we expect Houston to outpace Air Force with 16.6 PPH compared to 13.9 PPH."
Winner: Air Force.
Correct: Justin.

Cotton Bowl
Mississippi Rebels vs Oklahoma State Cowboys
What Justin said: "Both teams played tough schedules and should be ready come January 2nd.  I know Eddie isn't a big Houston Nutt fan, but this game looks to be close with the Rebels as 55.3% favorites to pull off the 4-point victory."
What Eddie said: "Expect Jevan Snead to get stupid and throw a strike to Oklahoma State on a two-receiver route to seal this one.  RBA says Oklahoma State over Ole Miss, 24-21, with 60.2% confidence."Winner: Ole Miss.
Correct: Justin.

BCS Championship
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Texas Longhorns
What Justin said: "Expect Texas to try and make this an up-tempo, offense-oriented game.  Expect Alabama to shut down those hopes and take home the BCS title, 31-27."
What Eddie said:Winner: Alabama.
Correct: Justin.

The clear winner of the 2009 Bowl edition of "No, You're An Idiot" is Justin.

Even though that does it for the 2009-2010 football season we'll still be around in the offseason, especially now that we've got time to do some more interesting data mining.  Look for musings on the effects of home field advantage, number of days or weeks since the last game, whether or not strength of schedule actually matters, and anything else that catches our attention.  After all, we got some predictions wrong this year; clearly there's still work to do.

2009 Bowl Previews: Part XII

Today is the final installment in our 2009-2010 Bowl Preview series.  This game scores high on both competition and quality metric.  Not only is it the only bowl to score above 80, but it pegs the CQR meter into the mid-90s.  By comparison, the SEC title game would have scored a 90.6 on the CQR meter thanks to TFG's low estimation (at the time) of Alabama and its 2-to-1 favoring of the Gators over the Crimson Tide.

#1: BCS Championship
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Texas Longhorns (95.2 CQR)
Eddie:  In the RBA consolation game, we present the BCS #1 and BCS #2 teams.  (3) Alabama beat Florida to clinch the SEC and knocked off Virginia Tech along the way in non-conference action, both of which are impressive wins.  However, they also needed two blocked kicks against Tennessee and a last-minute comeback to beat Auburn.  (4) Texas hails from the Big XII, which is still living off last year's credibility, and has had trouble dispatching Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Nebraska.  In fact, they're really lucky to have even won their conference.  In this game, we match two of the best defenses in the country.  RBA pegs Texas's opponent-adjusted defense at 7.3 PPH versus Alabama's 10.3 PPH.  Although Texas is considered to be the more offensively-minded team, Alabama is actually more efficient, posting a methodical 11.6 PPH against Texas's 9.3 PPH.  This statistic, coupled with Alabama's 0.94 turnover per game advantage swings the game in favor of the Crimson Tide, 18-17, with 52.9% confidence.
Justin: In an odd moment you "You're-right-but-you're-wrong", both Eddie and I agree that Alabama and Texas are, respectively, the third- and forth-best teams in college football this year but disagree on who will win.  It's only my lower estimation of Boise State that prevents the Fiesta Bowl from taking the top spot in our bowl preview.  Both teams are good on both sides of the ball, but (3) Alabama has made it here thanks to their 2nd-ranked defense (8.6 PPH) whereas Texas is here thanks to their up-tempo offense (28.4 PPH).  From here on out it's bad news for Texas, though.  The Longhorns are tied atop the offensive efficiency standings, but their companions are the (1) Florida Gators who had no answer for the Crimson Tide defense.  Texas just barely snuck past (14) Nebraska in the Big XII title game, and the Crimson Tide's defense is a full 1.8 PPH better than the Cornhusker unit that held Texas to 13 points.  The only other team to hold the Longhorns below 35 points this year?  (6) Oklahoma, who lost a narrow 16-13 game to Texas at the start of the year.  The Sooners have also been doing it with defense, rating a defensive efficiency of 9.2 PPH.  Expect Texas to try and make this an up-tempo, offense-oriented game.  Expect Alabama to shut down those hopes and take home the BCS title, 31-27.

Summary:

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(3)	Alabama	31	(4)	Texas	27	55.9	(3)	Alabama	17	(4)	Texas	18	52.9

2009 Bowl Previews: Part XI

Today we present the next-to-last installment in our 2009 Bowl Preview series.

#4: Champs Sports Bowl
Miami Hurricanes vs Wisconsin Badgers (77.2 CQR)
Justin: Statistically speaking, the (20) Miami Hurricanes were the second-best team in the ACC, just a slight step ahead of ACC championship contenders (21) Georgia Tech and (22) Clemson.  The Hurricanes played the 13th-toughest schedule in FBS and the 3rd-most difficult behind (63) Virginia and (44) Florida State.  They fared well, racking up a respectable 21.5 PPH on offense and 14.2 PPH on defense.  The (31) Badgers are about 1.0 PPH adrift on both counts, but against much more average competition.  The gap between 20th and 31st, however, is a slim 0.050 in expected winning percentage, so this should be a close game.  Good but not great defense matched up against stronger offenses on both sides means this should be an uptempo scoring parade, with the Hurricanes prevailing 31-28.  TFG expects this to be closer than the score predicts, with the Hurricanes only having a 56.8% change of winning.
Eddie: Although they've lost only three games, (27) Wisconsin sits behind a bevy of four and five loss teams because they have an absolutely absurd drop-off against good teams.  The Badgers' offense has a slope of 47.7 PPH (!) across all opponent strengths. Their defense is pretty good, but it's hard to overcome that type of offensive inconsistency.  What this means is that Wisconsin beats the teams that it is supposed to beat and loses to quality opponents.  Unfortunately for the Badgers, (20) Miami is actually pretty good, overachieving in a year when many thought Randy Shannon would be canned mid-season.  Miami should score 15.6 PPH versus Wisconsin's 13.9 PPH, and Wisconsin's 0.45 takeaways per game advantage just isn't enough to overcome that deficit.  RBA has this one as a Miami victory at 24-21 with 50.4% confidence.

#3: Fiesta Bowl
Boise State Broncos vs TCU Horned Frogs (78.0 CQR)
Eddie:  Here's your RBA national championship game, folks.  Before picking this game, allow me to state my biases.  I saw Boise State in person in 2002 during one of their 12-1 seasons.  My Razorbacks absolutely flattened the Broncos in Fayetteville, 41-14, with all their points in garbage time, to give them their lone loss.  Thanks to the epic butt-whooping Boise received that night, I have never really believed that mid-majors deserved a place at the table... until now.  I truly believe these two teams are the best in the country.  Offensively, (1) TCU and (2) Boise State are consistently effective, losing only 16.6 PPH and 10.9 PPH across all opponent strengths.  That sounds like a lot, but compared to Alabama's 25.2 PPH, Texas's 39.0 PPH, Florida's 26.1 PPH, and Oregon's 32.0 PPH, that's pretty consistent.  The big difference between these two teams is TCU's defense, expecting only 10.3 PPH compared to Boise's 17.1 PPH.  Neither team's defense is going to dominate simply because their offenses are so good.  However, TCU's defense gives them an overall 17.5 PPH to 16.6 PPH advantage over Boise State.  TCU turns the ball over 0.64 more times per game, so Boise has a decent shot in this one.  However, if both teams play up to their own standards, TCU wins this one, 31-28, with only 51.6% confidence.  People will say that TCU's and Boise's defenses are frauds and that Alabama or Texas would shut either team down.  Neither RBA or I believe that would really happen, and neither should you.
Justin: This has widely been hailed as the Plessey v. Ferguson Bowl, in which the Fiesta Bowl organizers bit the bullet and hosted both (2) TCU and (9) Boise State in an attempt to prevent non-BCS conference members from going 5-1 in BCS bowls.  TFG thinks it was more likely that the (1) Florida Gators would have defeated likely opponent Boise State in the Sugar Bowl, while (2) TCU would have destroyed (21) Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl.  TCU has been a monster on the field, combining the 6th-ranked offense (25.7 PPH) with the 3rd-ranked defense (8.7 PPH).  They've had to do it against sub-par competition, but has dominated (32) Air Force, (22) Clemson, (19) BYU, and (16) Utah.  For those keeping track at home, that's three bowl winners who have fallen to TCU with Air Force scheduled to play on December 31st.  Boise State has been good, with a +0.2 PPH margin on offense over TCU, but an unfortunate +3.3 PPH on defense.  This will be a good game, but expect TCU to continue their domination with a 31-27 win and finish the season 13-0 and a legitimate argument for an AP National Title.

#2: Orange Bowl
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Iowa Hawkeyes (79.6 CQR)
Justin: TFG isn't quite as bullish on either (13) Iowa or (21) Georgia Tech as Eddie's RBA, but this expects to be a good game.  I admit that TFG has, to an extent, underestimated the ability of defenses to stop Georgia Tech's offense.  That says a lot considering that they possess the 3rd-ranked offense in FBS with 26.5 PPH.  Iowa, however, is a much better defensive matchup for the Yellow Jackets, limiting opponents to a stingy 10.9 PPH.  The issue with the Hawkeyes, though, is the same as it has been all season: offense.  They're one of only two teams in the TFG top 25 with an offensive efficiency in the teens (the other being Nebraska) at 19.7 PPH.  Fortunately for the Hawkeyes, Georgia Tech sees their defense as an impediment to their offense getting on the field to score touchdowns, so the normally-anemic Iowa offense has a chance to put up some big points.  Enough points, in fact, for TFG to label them as the favorites in the Orange Bowl.  Iowa's defense comes up with some big stops and brings home the 31-27 victory.
Eddie: I find this game particularly intriguing because it matches (6) Iowa's excellent defense against (14) Georgia Tech's flexbone.  Iowa averages 2.55 takeaways per game and should expect a defensive efficiency of 8.7 PPH against the Yellow Jackets.  On the other side of the coin, you have the Georgia Tech running game that should put up 14.2 PPH against Iowa.  While the matchup between Iowa's defense and Georgia Tech's offense is the glamourous matchup, the more relevant matchup is on the opposite side of the ball because Iowa's offense and Georgia Tech's defense have both been spotty at times.  Iowa gets Ricky Stanzi back for the bowl game, so expect a little more consistency from Iowa.  RBA doesn't know about that, but it knows that Iowa managed enough offense against its good opponents (Penn State and Ohio State) that they should be able to beat the Yellow Jackets 24-21 with 50.9% confidence in a very run-dominated game.

Summary:

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(20)	Miami-FL	31	(31)	Wisconsin	28	56.8	(20)	Miami-FL	24	(27)	Wisconsin	21	50.4
(9)	Boise St.	27	(2)	TCU	31	70.0	(2)	Boise St.	28	(1)	TCU	31	51.6
(21)	Georgia Tech	27	(13)	Iowa	31	63.7	(13)	Georgia Tech	17	(6)	Iowa	24	50.9

2009 Bowl Previews: Part X

(We covered the #9 Meineke Bowl in Part VIII of our preview.  We covered the #7 Las Vegas Bowl in Part V of our preview.)

Today's bowls represent a huge jump in both competitiveness and quality of the opponent.  From here on out we expect to see top 25 caliber teams playing close games with no clear favorites.

#8: Holiday Bowl
Arizona Wildcats vs Nebraska Cornhuskers (74.6 CQR)
Eddie:  (13) Nebraska is surprisingly good for a four-loss team because their defense is flat-out dominant.  RBA suggests that they would hold a 1.000 strength team to only 10.1 PPH, a claim backed up by a 13 point outing against (4) Texas, a 16 point outing against (9) Virginia Tech, and only three points against (22) Oklahoma.  Their offense is atrocious, but they don't need much.  (25) Arizona is significantly better offensively but not so much to overcome the Nebraska defense.  This game hinges on Nebraska's offense.  If they do well, Nebraska wins.  If not, Arizona walks away with the win.  RBA picks the former in a close Nebraska win, 21-20, with 51.8% confidence.
Justin: The 14th-ranked Cornhuskers have been one of those teams that is better than their record indicates.  Nebraska has been doing it with defense, thanks to the efforts of Ndamukong Suh.  Suh is largely responsible for the Husker's amazing 10.4 PPH defensive efficiency.  The other side of the ball is an issue, though, as their 18.7 PPH offensive efficiency is the worst in the TFG top 25.  The bad news for (26) Arizona is that while their offensive efficiency is slightly better than Nebraska's, their defense isn't in the same class (+3.4 PPH).  This will be a hard-fought, grind'em-out game with the Cornhuskers ultimately prevailing, 27-24.

#6: Rose Bowl
Ohio State Buckeyes vs Oregon Ducks (75.3 CQR)
Justin: This is the first game in our countdown to feature two teams in the top 15.  (5) Ohio State has made their way to the top with the stingiest defense in college football, allowing a miserly 8.3 PPH and a moderate pace of 83.5 plays per half.  (12) Oregon, on the other hand, has the second-fastest game in FBS competition, combining their 92.9 plays per half with the 13th-most-efficient offense at 23.1 PPH.  It's the unstoppable force versus the immovable object.  TFG rules somewhat sternly in favor of the immovable object as Ohio State takes home the victory, 31-27.
Eddie: RBA reveals some interesting trends in this one.  Although (8) Ohio State is seen as the defensive team in this matchup, they aren't as different as you would expect in terms of efficiencies.  Ohio State has only a 2.9 PPH advantage over (11) Oregon.  The real difference appears when looking at turnovers; Ohio State commits 0.33 fewer turnovers and receives 0.75 more takeaways per game than Oregon.  As an added bonus, Ohio State commits fewer penalties.  In a game where the efficiencies match up fairly well, the turnovers and penalties make the difference, as Ohio State stops the bowl game bleeding in a 27-24 victory.

#5: Capital One Bowl
LSU Tigers vs Penn State Nittany Lions (77.2 CQR)
Eddie: (10) Penn State outmatches (17) LSU in virtually all facets, most notably with one of the best strength-of-opponent adjusted defenses in the country.  Penn State holds a 12.7 PPH to 10.2 PPH advantage in what should be a hard-hitting defensive game.  LSU has done a good job of limiting its mistakes with only 0.92 turnovers per game but is otherwise outclassed in all phases of the game.  If Penn State kicks the ball away from Trindon Holliday, they should win this low-scoring game, 21-17.
Justin: This one features two teams with similar stats in the key categories.  (7) Penn State and (15) LSU differ by only 1.5 PPH on offense, 1.5 PPH on defense, and 0.4 plays per half.  Unfortunately for LSU the offensive and defensive differences fall in Penn State's favor.  LSU is more battle-tested since Penn State has played a thoroughly average schedule and the TFG is impressed with the schedule of the Tigers.  On the whole, though, TFG pegs the Nittany Lions as nearly 2-to-1 favorites to win by a field goal in a deliberate and mostly defense-oriented game.

Summary:

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(26)	Arizona	24	(14)	Nebraska	27	65.8	(25)	Arizona	20	(14)	Nebraska	21	51.7
(5)	Ohio St.	31	(12)	Oregon	27	70.7	(8)	Ohio St.	27	(11)	Oregon	24	52.3
(15)	LSU	21	(7)	Penn State	24	64.7	(17)	LSU	17	(10)	Penn State	21	55.0

2009 Bowl Previews: Part IX

The theme today is "No, You're An Idiot" as Eddie and I disagree on all three games.  Today we finally crack the top 10, examine a potentially-overrated BCS matchup, and disagree over the fall of a former top 15 team.  [Editor's note:  Eddie apologizes for the late post.  He's traveling across the country.  Maybe you've heard how difficult that is these days.]

#12: Armed Forces Bowl
Houston Cougars vs Air Force Falcons (69.3 CQR)
Justin: The 39th-ranked Cougars got a reputation for having a high-flying offense, but a large part of that is due to having the fastest pace in the FBS division at a blazing 94.5 plays per half.  Their offensive efficiency can best be described as "slightly above average" at 21.9 PPH, but their defense allows 17.9 PPH which allows opponents to stay in the game far longer than necessary.  (32) Air Force is the mirror image of the Cougars: average pace, stingy defense, and a slow offense.  The Falcon's 15th-ranked defense will be the toughest challenge for Houston to date, and TFG thinks it'll be enough to slow down their high-octane pace: Air Force by a field goal, but only with 56.5% confidence.
Eddie:  Sure, (28) Houston makes its reputation by playing fast.  However, they are still much better at offense than (41) Air Force.  When adjusted for opponent strength, we expect Houston to outpace Air Force with 16.6 PPH compared to 13.9 PPH.  This game will be pretty close because Air Force holds a 0.58 turnover per game advantage, and they play slow, minimizing the Cougars' advantage.  However, Houston pulls this one out, 28-24 with 62.7% confidence.

#11: Sugar Bowl
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Florida Gators (69.4 CQR)
Eddie: RBA doesn't know that (5) Cincinnati lost its head coach and offensive coordinator, leaving the team emotionally depleted, so I'm ready to write this pick off.  Prior to those events, RBA ranks Cincinnati highly because they (a) are undefeated, elevating their team strength, (b) do not commit turnovers with regularity, and (c) have a consistent and powerful offense.  (7) Florida has a very hefty drop-off on both sides of the ball against better competition; this is the same team blown out by Alabama and taken to the limit by Arkansas and Mississippi State.  TFG says Florida's offensive and defensive efficiencies are 28.4 PPH and 9.4 PPH, respectively.  However, if you adjust them for opponent quality, they degrade to 15.9 PPH and 16.9 PPH against Cincinnati.  I'm not saying that Cincinnati is going to win this one with all their coaching turnover, but if they play like they have all season, they should.
Justin: On BCS paper this seems like quite possibly the second-best matchup.  BCS #4 Cincinnati versus BCS #5 Florida.  TFG, however, isn't big on the 17th-ranked Bearcats and that was before Brian Kelly decided he was leaving.  Even after their manhandling by (3) Alabama, TFG still has Florida as the top team in the land, a ranking I explored in some detail two weeks ago.  Giving up a net of nearly 11 PPH (6.0 on offense, 4.8 on defense) TFG doesn't expect this to be much of a game.  Florida are 5-to-1 favorites to win by 11 in the least competitive game this bowl season.

#10: Cotton Bowl
Mississippi Rebels vs Oklahoma State Cowboys (72.4 CQR)
Justin: In one of the six bowls where TFG and RBA disagree, TFG gives a slight nod to (23) Mississippi over (33) Oklahoma State.  The Cowboys were ranked in the top 10 early in the season but failed to deliver, playing only slightly above-average offense (21.0 PPH) and defense (15.7 PPH).  Mississippi fared slightly better at 21.2 PPH and 14.6 PPH.  Both teams played tough schedules and should be ready come January 2nd.  I know Eddie isn't a big Houston Nutt fan, but this game looks to be close with the Rebels as 55.3% favorites to pull off the 4-point victory.
Eddie:  (37) Mississippi commits turnovers in droves, averaging 2.3 per game, and supplements a consistently strong defense with a wildly erratic offense, depending on whether they decide to give Dexter McCluster the ball or not.  (31) Oklahoma State has been similarly unimpressive, largely due to injuries and retarded NCAA enforcement officers, but their defense is very opportunistic, averaging 2.1 takeaways per game.  In a game where the efficiencies are very close -- OSU has a 1.0 PPH advantage -- the turnovers are going to make a difference.  Expect Jevan Snead to get stupid and throw a strike to Oklahoma State on a two-receiver route to seal this one.  RBA says Oklahoma State over Ole Miss, 24-21, with 60.2% confidence.

Summary:

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(39)	Houston	28	(32)	Air Force	31	56.5	(28)	Houston	28	(42)	Air Force	24	62.7
(17)	Cincinnati	24	(1)	Florida	35	85.4	(5)	Cincinnati	27	(7)	Florida	24	56.1
(23)	Mississippi	31	(33)	Oklahoma St.	27	55.3	(37)	Mississippi	21	(31)	Oklahoma St.	24	60.2

2009 Bowl Previews: Part VIII

[NOTE: This should have posted yesterday at 4:30 ET.  There were some technical difficulties that ate some of the post.]

The bowls are getting more competitive and have some real choice matchups.  Today's post looks at two mid-majors and one of the closest bowls we'll see this winter.

#14: Liberty Bowl
Arkansas Razorbacks vs East Carolina Pirates (63.6 CQR)
Eddie:  You might expect (40) East Carolina to be prepared for (24) Arkansas after beating pass-happy Houston in the Conference USA championship game.  Unlike Houston, however, Arkansas can play something resembling defense at 16.1 PPH.  Arkansas is extremely good for a five-loss team, losing to Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss, and LSU with four of those games on the road, so don't let the record fool you.  Neither team has a problem with penalties or turnovers, so expect a clean game with Arkansas prevailing 28-24.
Justin: (49) East Carolina got here by squeaking past (39) Houston in the CUSA title game, but unlike Houston, (25) Arkansas has an actual offense. Houston might rack up the points, but they did it by playing a blistering pace -- nearly 200 plays per game on average -- and against sub-par defenses.  The Razorbacks have the 9th-best adjusted offense which hums along at 25.2 PPH (+3.3 PPH over Houston), a full 8.4 PPH better than ECU.  The Pirates will need to rely on their defense in order to slow down Arkansas's attack.  TFG gives them 1-in-3 odds of doing so, but favors Arkansas to prevail.

#13: Texas Bowl
Missouri Tigers vs Navy Midshipmen (64.9 CQR)
Justin: By all accounts this should be a close game.  TFG ranks it as the second-closest prediction of the 34 bowls, with (37) Navy having only a 52.1% chance of prevailing over (40) Missouri.  Beore the Army game these teams were even closer in the rankings than UConn/South Carolina, so this has the potential to go down to the wire.  Both have similar offenses and similar defenses; the only big difference is that Missouri plays a much faster game than Navy.  If the Tigers can get the Midshipmen out of their game then that might tip the balance their way.  As it is, the edge goes to Navy, 31-28.
Eddie:  (39) Navy plays one of the cleanest games in town, averaging only 0.92 turnovers and 3.67 penalties per game.  Part of that is due to their offensive style, averaging only 154 plays per game with the flexbone rushing attack.  The other part is that they are simply well-disciplined.  (45) Missouri plays a contrasting style, utilizing a fast-paced spread attack with 176 plays per game.  Navy has a slight edge with 15.4 PPH, opposed to Missouri's 14.2 PPH.  The slow pace means that Navy's advantage is reduced, producing an exciting 25-24 conclusion at 50.2% confidence.

#9: Meineke Bowl
North Carolina Tar Heels vs Pittsburgh Panthers (73.7 CQR)
(NOTE: This bowl is scheduled for December 26nd so we needed to publish our preview today.  This should be the last out-of-order preview.)
Eddie:  It was just a few weeks ago that I was talking about (12) Pittsburgh in the national championship game.  Pitt has still put in a very solid season with a combination of solid offense and defense.  (26) North Carolina has been very consistent but at a slightly lower level than Pittsburgh.  The Panthers should put up 15.2 PPH against the Tar Heels' 14.5 PPH.  Pitt is also less turnover prone than UNC, giving them the additional edge necessary to pull out a 24-21 victory.
Justin: (29) North Carolina went on a late-season tear, upending (8) Virginia Tech in Blacksburg and (20) Miami.  It was only a season-ending loss to (78) North Carolina State that dropped them out of the top 25 and stopped their meteoric rise.  Their success is thanks to their stingy defense -- giving up only 12.3 PPH -- because they're not getting much from their sputtering offense (16.9 PPH).  The 18th-ranked Panthers are slightly worse on the defensive end, but their 22.4 PPH-rated offense has propelled them into the top 20.  Both teams play at a similar pace, so expect this to be a pretty standard grind-em-out game with neither team gaining a significant upper hand.  In the end, though, TFG has the Panthers as 3-to-5 favorites to pick up the victory by 3.

Summary:

Home			Visitors			Odds	Home			Visitors			Odds
(25)	Arkansas	35	(49)	East Carolina	31	65.8	(24)	Arkansas	28	(40)	East Carolina	24	55.9
(40)	Missouri	28	(37)	Navy	31	52.1	(44)	Missouri	24	(39)	Navy	25	50.4
(29)	North Carolina	24	(18)	Pittsburgh	27	59.2	(26)	North Carolina	21	(12)	Pittsburgh	24	58.1