Week 2: Top 25 -- RBA

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	1.000	0.552	11	26.9	2	5.4	1	156.7	121
2	--	LSU	0.992	0.549	16	24.1	5	8.1	3	160.0	113
3	--	Oregon	0.984	0.530	50	26.0	4	12.5	28	176.3	3
4	--	Oklahoma St.	0.984	0.551	13	26.9	3	13.9	44	173.3	7
5	+3	Stanford	0.959	0.542	30	23.4	11	12.6	32	166.9	58
6	+1	Oklahoma	0.959	0.543	25	19.7	27	9.5	4	171.7	14
7	-1	Wisconsin	0.959	0.535	38	28.7	1	11.9	23	161.5	109
8	+14	Houston	0.958	0.474	86	22.3	14	14.0	45	175.5	4
9	-4	Boise St.	0.934	0.462	96	23.9	7	10.5	10	168.8	36
10	-1	Arkansas	0.933	0.567	2	23.5	10	11.2	16	165.5	81
11	--	Florida St.	0.932	0.549	15	18.9	32	9.6	6	165.7	77
12	-2	South Carolina	0.925	0.543	27	20.8	21	9.6	5	157.7	120
13	--	USC	0.925	0.533	44	24.0	6	9.8	7	166.8	61
14	--	Georgia	0.900	0.549	17	21.4	18	13.3	41	159.8	114
15	+3	Michigan St.	0.893	0.545	23	20.3	23	10.3	9	167.2	53
16	--	Florida	0.883	0.559	7	16.8	55	10.1	8	161.4	110
17	-2	TCU	0.876	0.464	95	23.5	9	13.3	39	167.8	46
18	NA	Nebraska	0.873	0.533	43	21.1	20	12.2	27	166.8	63
19	--	Texas A&M	0.860	0.556	10	22.2	15	12.1	25	172.7	11
20	--	Notre Dame	0.856	0.565	3	21.6	17	10.7	12	164.8	89
21	-4	Michigan	0.851	0.544	24	22.4	13	12.0	24	167.5	50
22	-1	Texas	0.831	0.522	61	19.3	29	11.6	20	168.1	43
23	--	Ohio St.	0.831	0.532	45	20.1	25	11.3	18	159.2	116
24	+1	Missouri	0.824	0.528	56	17.6	40	11.5	19	174.2	5
25	-1	Virginia Tech	0.821	0.527	58	17.5	42	11.1	13	158.2	119

Rankings through games of 2012-09-02

New entries: Nebraska.

Dropped out: Southern Miss.

LOL WUT?  I'm sure you're asking yourself why Houston and Stanford went up in the polls after weak performances against Texas State and San Jose State, respectively.  There's a perfectly rational reason, which is why the BCS computers wait until week 8 before releasing their statistics.  In linear regression, there's a concept called "leverage."  Basically, this means that some outliers have sufficient weight that they throw off the entire curve fit.  When a team has a terrible start to a season, the new point has significant weight.  However, the old data showing them as a successful team remains in the predictor.  Therefore, this creates an odd effect where the team appears to do better against strong competition than weak competition.



The plot above illustrates this effect.  The horizontal axis represents the strength of Houston's opponents.  The vertical axis represents its offensive efficiency in PPH.  The size of the bubble indicates the relative weight of the game.  Since Texas State sits at the far bottom left of the plot and has significant weight relative to other games, it exhibits high leverage.  This creates a plot with a positive slope, rather than a negative slope, which confuses the algorithm.  This will sort itself out, so don't sweat it.  In the meantime, I'm looking into other approaches.

Unsurprisingly, Alabama is the top team in this week's poll.  Drubbing Michigan only proves the point.

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Week 2: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Connecticut (0.099); Iowa St. (0.089); Duke (0.072); Nebraska (0.070); Ohio St. (0.069)

Biggest drops: Navy (-0.094); Southern Miss. (-0.088); Tulsa (-0.087); Miami-OH (-0.085); Rice (-0.062)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 2: Top 25 -- TFG

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	0.974	0.690	2	39.0	2	9.1	1	149.8	119
2	--	LSU	0.932	0.657	7	32.8	5	11.5	3	153.9	115
3	+1	Wisconsin	0.882	0.576	37	42.0	1	18.8	42	150.8	118
4	-1	Boise St.	0.878	0.484	71	31.1	9	14.1	6	161.4	79
5	+2	Oklahoma	0.859	0.563	41	23.8	33	11.5	2	177.8	10
6	--	Oregon	0.852	0.606	19	31.8	8	15.8	17	181.3	3
7	+1	TCU	0.850	0.418	91	32.8	4	16.4	24	158.8	97
8	-3	Stanford	0.845	0.537	49	33.6	3	17.1	28	156.7	106
9	--	Oklahoma St.	0.837	0.602	23	29.6	10	15.4	13	180.6	4
10	--	Arkansas	0.817	0.639	10	31.8	7	17.5	29	167.9	33
11	+2	Michigan St.	0.813	0.672	4	25.0	25	13.9	4	161.9	72
12	+3	USC	0.812	0.539	48	29.0	11	16.2	22	162.8	60
13	+3	Notre Dame	0.807	0.584	31	25.4	24	14.4	8	163.2	58
14	-2	Florida St.	0.806	0.554	43	26.9	16	15.2	11	154.2	114
15	+7	Ohio St.	0.796	0.531	53	27.4	15	15.9	19	157.5	104
16	-5	South Carolina	0.791	0.617	13	26.6	18	15.6	16	154.5	112
17	-3	Michigan	0.790	0.710	1	32.3	6	19.1	45	156.1	108
18	+6	Nebraska	0.779	0.606	20	26.2	20	15.8	18	162.7	63
19	--	Texas A&M	0.759	0.603	22	22.8	39	14.4	7	184.1	1
20	-3	Virginia Tech	0.754	0.525	57	24.3	29	15.5	14	155.0	111
21	-3	Florida	0.746	0.609	17	23.6	34	15.3	12	158.5	99
22	+1	Missouri	0.725	0.577	36	22.1	45	15.0	10	169.8	26
23	NA	Texas	0.720	0.531	54	22.6	41	15.5	15	161.4	77
24	NA	West Virginia	0.718	0.505	66	28.4	12	19.5	48	172.8	16
25	-5	Georgia	0.718	0.536	50	27.8	13	19.2	46	162.2	69

Rankings through games of 2012-09-01

It's been almost eight months since Alabama and LSU were clearly the two best teams in FBS and not much has changed. The Crimson Tide continue their reign of dominance in that they're currently better than the best team in last year's champions countdown, the 2005 Texas Longhorns. LSU is no slouch either, as they're on par with the 2004 USC Trojans team that clocked in at third on our countdown. In most years a team with a 0.932 expected winning percentage would be a solid #1, but Alabama has just been on an other-wordly streak of success.

So who can challenge them? Obviously it's too early to make any solid projections, but based on what we saw in the first week we know it won't be any of these teams:

• Boise State. They lost too many starters and couldn't even defeat Michigan State;
• Wisconsin. Their offensive efficiency is probably the best we've ever seen, but having the 42nd-best defense is no way to win a title;
• Stanford. [insert obligatory "out of Luck" tripe]; or
• Michigan. Ouch. Just ... ouch.

Oregon is looking competitive, and we'll have to see how USC does against serious competition. Oklahoma is looking both strong and shaky, an art form they've perfected over the last few years.

Currently, though, we're pretty much where we left off last year: Alabama, LSU, and everyone else.

New entries: Texas, West Virginia.

Dropped out: Houston, Temple.

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Week 1: Saturday Recap

[ Note: These stats are only through Saturday's games. They do not include the two from Sunday or last night's Tech-vs-Tech. ]

Week 1
System	Expected		Actual
	W - L	Win %	W - L	Win %
TFG	27.1 -   9.9	73.4	29 -   8	78.4
RBA	27.0 -  10.0	72.9	28 -   9	75.7

Game of the Week

Nebraska Cornhuskers 49, Southern Miss Golden Eagles 20; 169 plays

Justin

(24) Nebraska 36, (28) Southern Miss. 31 (68.6%); 170 plays

This was actually a reasonable game until about halfway through the second quarter. From there, though, Nebraska really took off. They posted a final efficiency of about 29.0 points/100 plays (PPH) while only allowing 11.8 PPH. This is a good exhibit that (a) the computer models aren't very good the first few weeks of the season, but (b) "big-name" teams don't change too much from year-to-year.

Eddie

(26) Nebraska 29, (12) Southern Miss. 28 (52.7%); 167 plays

Southern Miss kept it close for a little while, and then the Cornhuskers wore down the Golden Eagles.  USM's Chris Campbell only threw for 69 yards, which probably didn't help.

Shootout of the Week

Arizona Wildcats 24, Toledo Rockets 17; 213 plays

Eddie

(58) Arizona 35, (50) Toledo 31 (54.2%); 168 plays

This one wasn't quite the shootout we expected.  Arizona had 624 yards of total offense but had two touchdowns called back, three turnovers, and two missed field goals.

Justin

(66) Arizona 40, (45) Toledo 39 (53.3%); 170 plays

This ended up being a better game than the actual Game of the Week, as the Wildcats coughed up the ball enough to keep Toledo in it. The Rockets had two key penalties in OT, though, and found themselves in a 4th-and-20 that they couldn't quite overcome.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Northwestern Wildcats 42, Syracuse Orange 41; 200 plays

Justin

(77) Syracuse 35, (65) Northwestern 34 (53.1%); 165 plays

At the 7:34 mark in the 3rd quarter, Northwestern had scored yet again to go up 35-13; our in-game odds had them at 97.9% likely to win. As time bled off to the 4:17 mark in the 3rd, their odds were up to 98.2%. The Orangemen then proceeded to score 28 points in the next 15 minutes and bring their odds of victory up to 70.0%; yet Northwestern is still Northwestern and managed to pull out the victory in the end. It's games like this one that lend weight to the "Northwestern is the luckiest team in FBS" stat. 

Eddie

(59) Northwestern 28, (89) Syracuse 27 (62.7%); 170 plays

This game was awesome to watch.  It looked like Northwestern was going to run away with it.  Then, Syracuse came roaring back.  Northwestern's backup quarterback sealed it with a nine yard touchdown pass with 44 seconds remaining.

Coin Toss Record: TFG 0, RBA 1.

2012 - 2013 Season
System	Expected		Actual
	W - L	Win %	W - L	Win %
TFG	27.1 -   9.9	73.4	29 -   8	78.4
RBA	27.0 -  10.0	72.9	28 -   9	75.7

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Week 2: Monday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Mon Sep 3 20:44:02 2012

Week 2: Monday Predictions

20 Virginia Tech 39  56 Georgia Tech 30

25 Virginia Tech 31  45 Georgia Tech 21

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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Week 2: Sunday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Sep 2 21:02:02 2012

Week 1: Saturday Predictions

1 Alabama 42  14 Michigan 30

1 Alabama 38  17 Michigan 14

66 Arizona 40  45 Toledo 39

58 Arizona 35  50 Toledo 31

31 Auburn 39  38 Clemson 38

41 Auburn 31  34 Clemson 27

83 Boston College 28  37 Miami-FL 31

84 Boston College 21  27 Miami-FL 27

50 California 33  40 Nevada 31

39 California 31  55 Nevada 24

109 Colorado St. 33 103 Colorado 37

113 Colorado St. 27  95 Colorado 28

95 Duke 34  72 FIU 32

86 Duke 27  74 FIU 24

18 Florida 42  98 Bowling Green 25

16 Florida 48 106 Bowling Green 6

20 Georgia 46 112 Buffalo 23

14 Georgia 49 114 Buffalo 3

21 Houston 17 NA Texas State 10

22 Houston 13  65 Texas State 6

56 Illinois 36  67 Western Michigan 30

69 Illinois 31  82 Western Michigan 24

42 Iowa 36  47 Northern Ill. 35

36 Iowa 35  57 Northern Ill. 24

73 Iowa St. 30  29 Tulsa 33

77 Iowa St. 27  52 Tulsa 28

2 LSU 49  94 North Texas 22

2 LSU 59 104 North Texas 0

24 Nebraska 36  28 Southern Miss. 31

26 Nebraska 29  12 Southern Miss. 28

16 Notre Dame 38  59 Navy 32

20 Notre Dame 38  75 Navy 20

22 Ohio St. 37  80 Miami-OH 24

23 Ohio St. 38  92 Miami-OH 10

6 Oregon 45  64 Arkansas St. 27

3 Oregon 42  72 Arkansas St. 13

32 Penn State 35  68 Ohio 27

43 Penn State 28  71 Ohio 17

15 USC 46  74 Hawaii 30

13 USC 42  85 Hawaii 17

77 Syracuse 35  65 Northwestern 34

89 Syracuse 27  59 Northwestern 28

27 Texas 38  96 Wyoming 24

21 Texas 42  88 Wyoming 13

116 Tulane 27  49 Rutgers 39

120 Tulane 21  48 Rutgers 34

113 UAB 36  99 Troy 39

118 UAB 31 107 Troy 28

84 UTEP 29   7 Oklahoma 40

96 UTEP 17   7 Oklahoma 49

63 Washington 38  57 SDSU 35

47 Washington 38  61 SDSU 27

26 West Virginia 43  92 Marshall 27

29 West Virginia 41  97 Marshall 17

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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Week 1: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Sep 2 00:26:03 2012

Week 1: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Nebraska Cornhuskers

GUGS Score: 61.1

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
24	Nebraska	0.709	0.602	25	22.5	43	15.7	18	164.2	51
28	Southern Miss.	0.659	0.397	93	23.1	36	17.8	32	176.3	11

Just keep telling yourself that it's not actually September 1st, 2012; it's really January 10th, 2012, and nothing has changed since yesterday. Why? Because that's the way the computers see it, and in that world of last year, Nebraska/Southern Miss is going to be a pretty damn good game. The Huskers are moderate-but-not-crazy favorites thanks to their superior defense and respectable offense. But this year? Who knows. TFG still has to predict this one, though, and it gives a healthy edge to Nebraska. Nebraska 36, Southern Miss. 31 (68.6%); 170 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
26	Nebraska	0.826	0.532	43	19.1	32	12.7	35	166.7	63
12	Southern Miss.	0.924	0.484	76	20.4	26	13.8	47	169.1	32

What?  No (17) Michigan versus (1) Alabama?  As far as RBA's concerned, that one isn't going to be close.  On the other hand, this one looks interesting.  RBA still thinks Larry Fedora is on the sideline for the (12) Golden Eagles, and it should be interesting to see if the defensively-minded Ellis Johnson can keep the offense rolling.  The Golden Eagles were a consistent 20.2 +/- 0.04 PPH last season.  In contrast, Taylor Martinez was an inconsistent 29.3 +/- 20.4.   The defenses paint the same picture, with Nebraska presenting an inconsistent 6.2 +/- 12.8 PPH and Southern Miss 10.5 +/- 6.6 PPH.  Personally, I'm a Southern Miss fan, but RBA says home field advantage wins it for the Cornhuskers, 29-28, with 52.7% confidence.

Shootout of the Week

Toledo Rockets at Arizona Wildcats

GUGS Score: 49.8

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
58	Arizona	0.522	0.559	6	19.2	31	18.5	82	167.7	45
50	Toledo	0.609	0.447	104	21.5	19	19.3	93	168.5	39

The computer thinks that Nick Foles and Eric Page are still playing, so this may be an overestimate.  However, Rich Rodriguez will probably have his side ready to score.  (And if his time at Michigan was any indication, the defense will arrive four years from now.)  Assuming everything carries over from last year, the (50) Toledo Rockets offense should score plenty at 28.8 +/- 14.5 PPH but give up 13.3 +/- 12.0 PPH.  (58) Arizona should play a respectable 29.0 +/- 19.8 PPH on offense and surrender a lot of points at 13.0 +/- 11.1 PPH.  Offenses usually take a few games to gel, so I'd probably take the under on this one.  RBA says Arizona, 35-31, with 54.2% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
66	Arizona	0.483	0.610	17	21.0	56	21.6	68	171.8	18
45	Toledo	0.586	0.441	79	26.9	17	23.4	79	170.0	23

What happens when you mix two offenses in the top half of FBS with two defenses in the bottom half of the division? The shootout of the week, that's what. Once again, I really have no idea how this is going to play out, but TFG says it'll be high scoring with a slight edge to the Wildcats. This one is all about pace, and that generally doesn't change too much year-to-year (see: Oregon, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State). In the end, though, TFG gives the slightest of nods to Arizon. Arizona 40, Toledo 39 (53.3%); 170 plays.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Northwestern Wildcats at Syracuse Orange

GUGS Score: 38.3

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
77	Syracuse	0.380	0.528	58	18.9	74	23.0	76	161.7	76
65	Northwestern	0.483	0.527	59	21.5	51	22.1	72	168.6	30

The computers had to find a Saturday game in which we disagreed, and Syracuse/Northwestern it is. As we've mentioned before, Northwestern has a habit of pulling wins out of the hat, so it's probably a risky proposition to pick against them, but TFG is doing just that. Home field advantage means so much more in the beginning of the year that even a superior offense and defense won't be enough to push the need in the Wildcats' direction in the eyes of the computer. This looks to be close, though, and I'll be rooting the way my computer says I should. Go Orangemen. Syracuse 35, Northwestern 34 (53.1%); 165 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
89	Syracuse	0.257	0.545	20	14.0	81	17.1	75	163.5	96
59	Northwestern	0.509	0.511	62	16.7	54	15.9	64	176.5	2

There aren't too many disagreements between RBA and TFG this week, so the toss-up is slim pickings.  (59) Northwestern has had recent success, whereas (89) Syracuse has been lost in the wasteland since Donovan McNabb played for the Orange(men).  The Syracuse defense is a pathetic 15.4 +/- 3.4 PPH.  Northwestern should do relatively well with a 21.8 +/- 10.1 PPH offense.  The Wildcat defense is a historically flaky 6.3 +/- 19.1 PPH, but Syracuse will need an above-average performance from their 17.1 +/- 6.3 PPH offense to pull this one off.  Home field keeps it close, but Northwestern should win, 28-27, with 62.7% confidence.

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	19.90 -  7.10	73.72%
TFG	19.79 -  7.21	73.29%