Friday, March 3, 2017

2017 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Hello from the 2017 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

Another year has passed and there's been some major strides in college football analytics. Behind the scenes there's been good work at Football Study Hall, and I really wish I had more time to do the kind of analysis and data collection they're doing over there.

Given that it's the college football offseason, there's not too much happening football-wise on an ongoing basis right now. During the regular season you can expect to find weekly posts showcasing
We invite you to look at some of the "best of" we've produced, as other posts of interest, including
This is all on top of predictions for each and every game between two FBS teams.

We just finished our first full season of new Formula One coverage. (I've been a huge fan of F1 my whole life, so this is an exciting moment for me.) We've created an Elo rating system for F1 drivers going back to 1980. Want the definitive answer on Prost versus Senna? Senna versus Schumacher? The most dominant F1 season in the last 36 years? The drivers with the best peak career ratings? We're working on that, plus up-to-date ratings for the current season.

All-in-all it's grown into a pretty complicated system backed by a lot of code we've written over the last few years. If you have any questions or feedback for us, don't hesitate to leave a comment here or hit us up on Twitter.

Enjoy the conference, and we hope to see you there.

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Monday, January 16, 2017

Final Standings: Top 25 — TFG

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page
Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama  ( 13 - 1 ) 0.977 0.739 1 28.2 1 6.9 1 166.7 93
2 -- Ohio St.  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.940 0.646 9 23.9 10 8.5 2 169.1 79
3 +1 Clemson  ( 13 - 1 ) 0.937 0.723 2 26.4 3 9.5 4 180.1 19
4 -1 Michigan  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.933 0.576 41 24.8 5 9.2 3 162.7 108
5 -- Washington  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.880 0.583 36 24.1 9 11.4 9 165.1 100
6 -- Wisconsin  ( 11 - 3 ) 0.871 0.586 35 20.2 28 9.9 7 158.3 116
7 -- LSU  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.868 0.716 3 19.9 34 9.8 6 155.3 125
8 -- Florida St.  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.863 0.692 6 24.5 6 12.3 12 167.1 91
9 -- Auburn  ( 7 - 5 ) 0.837 0.704 5 19.1 40 10.3 8 168.1 84
10 -- Oklahoma  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.836 0.576 43 27.0 2 14.6 35 173.1 54
11 +1 Penn State  ( 11 - 3 ) 0.817 0.576 42 24.3 7 13.8 24 171.2 63
12 -1 Florida  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.810 0.634 11 16.8 62 9.7 5 156.2 124
13 -- Western Kentucky  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.807 0.411 93 24.1 8 14.1 29 171.8 57
14 -- USC  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.796 0.626 12 21.8 19 13.1 19 171.4 59
15 -- Virginia Tech  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.791 0.579 38 20.3 27 12.3 14 174.6 45
16 -- Louisville  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.789 0.554 50 23.4 12 14.2 31 170.9 67
17 -- Miami-FL  ( 8 - 4 ) 0.782 0.602 24 18.9 41 11.7 10 169.6 76
18 -- Western Michigan  ( 12 - 1 ) 0.771 0.391 100 23.6 11 15.0 41 156.3 122
19 -- SDSU  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.758 0.381 103 20.3 26 13.3 20 157.0 120
20 -- Appalachian St.  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.734 0.350 118 17.6 53 12.0 11 162.2 109
21 +1 Temple  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.726 0.404 95 18.5 43 12.8 18 156.2 123
22 -1 Texas A&M  ( 7 - 5 ) 0.725 0.635 10 19.6 36 13.6 23 181.0 17
23 -- Memphis  ( 7 - 5 ) 0.723 0.510 67 19.9 31 13.9 27 180.1 20
24 -- Stanford  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.720 0.552 52 17.6 54 12.3 15 159.2 114
25 -- Oklahoma St.  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.719 0.557 48 21.5 21 15.1 44 176.0 35
Rankings through games of 2017-01-15

New entries: none.

Dropped out: none.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Final Standings: Full Rankings — TFG

Biggest jumps: Clemson (0.006); South Carolina (0.001)

Biggest drops: Mississippi (-0.011); Arkansas (-0.010); Florida (-0.007); Texas A&M (-0.005); Alabama (-0.005)

Full rankings after the jump.

Final Standings: Top 25 — RBA

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page
Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama  ( 13 - 1 ) 0.963 0.555 8 25.7 5 5.2 1 158.0 128
2 -- Ohio St.  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.922 0.532 52 25.1 7 7.1 2 162.3 115
3 -- Michigan  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.877 0.548 20 24.3 10 8.8 4 164.9 99
4 -- USC  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.868 0.536 44 25.7 4 9.3 6 167.9 67
5 -- LSU  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.858 0.555 9 27.3 1 10.4 9 160.1 124
6 -- Washington  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.848 0.546 26 27.0 2 11.1 13 169.0 55
7 -- Clemson  ( 13 - 1 ) 0.835 0.537 39 22.5 15 9.7 7 170.3 41
8 -- Auburn  ( 7 - 5 ) 0.822 0.559 4 21.3 25 10.0 8 161.5 119
9 -- Wisconsin  ( 11 - 3 ) 0.817 0.536 43 20.7 31 9.3 5 160.9 120
10 -- Oklahoma  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.794 0.547 24 26.6 3 12.9 23 172.9 19
11 -- Miami-FL  ( 8 - 4 ) 0.781 0.551 16 20.7 30 10.9 10 164.1 111
12 -- Florida  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.781 0.560 3 16.4 68 7.4 3 160.8 121
13 -- Washington St.  ( 8 - 4 ) 0.772 0.540 34 23.0 14 12.6 21 174.6 10
14 -- Florida St.  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.772 0.543 31 20.7 32 11.1 12 166.0 83
15 -- Louisville  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.769 0.490 73 23.7 11 13.0 24 165.6 86
16 -- Texas A&M  ( 7 - 5 ) 0.762 0.547 23 19.4 43 11.0 11 174.6 11
17 -- Colorado  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.753 0.553 13 19.2 46 11.3 15 171.0 36
18 -- Stanford  ( 10 - 3 ) 0.752 0.541 33 19.6 39 11.5 16 165.1 95
19 -- Western Michigan  ( 12 - 1 ) 0.745 0.465 89 23.1 13 14.4 41 168.8 57
20 -- Penn State  ( 11 - 3 ) 0.741 0.534 48 21.6 23 13.1 26 165.3 92
21 -- BYU  ( 8 - 4 ) 0.734 0.499 65 18.0 51 11.2 14 172.0 25
22 -- West Virginia  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.724 0.537 40 19.4 42 11.6 17 171.9 26
23 -- Virginia Tech  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.721 0.522 58 19.4 41 12.2 19 162.1 117
24 -- Temple  ( 9 - 4 ) 0.720 0.481 78 19.3 44 13.2 27 162.2 116
25 -- Houston  ( 8 - 4 ) 0.715 0.469 86 19.3 45 14.1 34 177.5 5
Rankings through games of 2017-01-15

New entries: none.

Dropped out: none.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Final Standings: Full Rankings — RBA

Biggest jumps: Clemson (0.006); Alabama (0.001)

Biggest drops: (none)

Full rankings after the jump.