This lead to a memorable start.
|Pictured: A whole lotta oops.|
In the end Rosberg had a clear path to victory, while Vettel, Daniil Kvyat, and Ricciardo worked their way back up to the front of the pack. Hamilton was saddled with a damaged underbody and limped home to seventh place.
|10||--||Sainz Jr.||Toro Rosso||1129||+58|
Between his last-place start due to technical failures and his seventh-place finish due to a damaged car, Hamilton has a disastrous weekend in our ratings. Grosjean saw his luck finally run out, as his 19th place finish dropped him six places in our ratings. On the flip side, Kvyat finally jumped back into the top ten, with teammate Ricciardo nipping at the heels of the Ferrari teammates.
Rosberg continues his climb back up the ratings, achieving his highest score since the end of the 2015 season: a 1723 at Abu Dhabi. He's been aided by some mistakes by Hamilton -- poor starts at Bahrain and Australia -- and some rough luck for Hamilton -- getting shoved wide by Rosberg in Australia, and getting slammed into by Bottas in Bahrain and Nasr in China -- but has parlayed some great racing and that luck into his largest championship lead ever, at 36 points.
Rosberg's lead of 244 points in the Elo ratings is the largest gap between first and second since Hamilton held a 252 point advantage over Vettel after last year's Japanese Grand Prix, 1746 to 1493. While it's unlikely that Hamilton's luck will continue to be as bad as it has these last few races, he's currently six 1-2 finished behind Rosberg in the standings.
Further down the field, it'll be interesting to see if the championship points will eventually start to reflect the Elo standings. Right now the constructors standings is Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull, Williams, Haas, Toro Rosso, Force India, and then McLaren. With the exception of an oddly out-of-place Hamilton -- the ratings currently can't distinguish between a mechanical failure and a performance failure in qualifying -- Elo has a slightly different picture of the teams at this point: Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull, Williams, Toro Rosso, Force India, McLaren, and then Haas. Sauber, Renault, and Manor are all at or below rookie-level quality.
Will Haas continue to overperform in the points standings? Can Williams continue to stay ahead of Toro Rosso? How long will it take for Hamilton to climb back into the top two of the Elo ratings? We'll find out more this weekend in Russia.