Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Week 9: Undefeated ... but for how long? — TFG

Odds as of games through 2015-10-25

Legitimate Title Contenders

Clemson Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.934 2 0.675 13 25.8 3 9.6 4 176.7 32
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  85 Appalachian St. 10 at   6 Clemson 41 184 95.9%
2015/09/17   5 Clemson 20 at  30 Louisville 17 161 64.6%
2015/10/03  23 Notre Dame 22 at   6 Clemson 24 162 80.0%
2015/10/10  28 Georgia Tech 24 at   7 Clemson 43 158 78.7%
2015/10/17  63 Boston College 17 at   4 Clemson 34 171 92.6%
2015/10/24   6 Clemson 58 at  47 Miami-FL 0 179 71.8%
2015/10/31   2 Clemson 34 at  50 North Carolina St. 25 169 85.9%
2015/11/07  16 Florida St. 25 at   2 Clemson 32 169 80.4%
2015/11/14   2 Clemson 38 at  84 Syracuse 22 173 95.1%
2015/11/21 103 Wake Forest 16 at   2 Clemson 35 171 97.9%
2015/11/28   2 Clemson 37 at  72 South Carolina 22 168 94.2%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 60.6%
Most difficult game left: November 7, vs Florida State Seminoles, 80.4%


Iowa Hawkeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.793 18 0.527 56 20.8 27 12.6 21 167.4 87
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  43 Iowa 31 at 100 Iowa St. 17 159 74.0%
2015/09/19  42 Pittsburgh 24 at  44 Iowa 27 150 60.4%
2015/09/26 112 North Texas 16 at  40 Iowa 62 185 94.1%
2015/10/03  29 Iowa 10 at   3 Wisconsin 6 157 11.8%
2015/10/10  59 Illinois 20 at  29 Iowa 29 178 76.7%
2015/10/17  35 Iowa 40 at  42 Northwestern 10 177 41.1%
2015/10/31  74 Maryland 23 at  18 Iowa 35 172 89.0%
2015/11/07  18 Iowa 35 at  75 Indiana 27 178 80.7%
2015/11/14  77 Minnesota 22 at  18 Iowa 31 165 86.6%
2015/11/21  96 Purdue 23 at  18 Iowa 35 169 90.7%
2015/11/27  18 Iowa 31 at  35 Nebraska 29 171 63.0%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 35.5%
Most difficult game left: November 27, at Nebraska Cornhuskers, 63.0%


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.921 4 0.499 64 26.4 2 10.5 5 165.8 91
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/07   3 Ohio St. 42 at  34 Virginia Tech 24 154 74.2%
2015/09/12  93 Hawaii 0 at   3 Ohio St. 38 171 97.2%
2015/09/19  76 Northern Ill. 13 at   2 Ohio St. 20 170 97.3%
2015/09/26  86 Western Michigan 12 at   2 Ohio St. 38 177 97.6%
2015/10/03   2 Ohio St. 34 at  69 Indiana 27 190 90.5%
2015/10/10  97 Maryland 28 at   4 Ohio St. 49 176 97.5%
2015/10/17  36 Penn State 10 at   6 Ohio St. 38 147 83.1%
2015/10/24   3 Ohio St. 49 at  80 Rutgers 7 149 90.0%
2015/11/07  77 Minnesota 20 at   4 Ohio St. 36 164 95.2%
2015/11/14   4 Ohio St. 34 at  63 Illinois 22 170 89.6%
2015/11/21  14 Michigan St. 27 at   4 Ohio St. 32 164 72.1%
2015/11/28   4 Ohio St. 24 at   3 Michigan 27 161 46.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 28.7%
Most difficult game left: November 28, at Michigan Wolverines, 46.7%


Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.766 25 0.307 120 20.3 33 13.0 24 176.7 32
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  55 Houston 34 at  23 Louisville 31 193 16.5%
2015/09/26 101 Texas State 14 at  55 Houston 59 188 87.3%
2015/10/03  40 Houston 38 at  89 Tulsa 24 213 71.8%
2015/10/08 100 SMU 28 at  38 Houston 49 167 91.8%
2015/10/16  43 Houston 42 at 119 Tulane 7 174 91.6%
2015/10/24  31 Houston 59 at 104 UCF 10 167 85.7%
2015/10/31  80 Vanderbilt 19 at  25 Houston 29 173 89.2%
2015/11/07  51 Cincinnati 28 at  25 Houston 34 177 73.7%
2015/11/14  33 Memphis 30 at  25 Houston 33 181 62.7%
2015/11/21  25 Houston 31 at  98 Connecticut 20 169 90.6%
2015/11/27  37 Navy 27 at  25 Houston 29 167 60.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 22.7%
Most difficult game left: November 27, vs Navy Midshipmen, 60.7%


Baylor Bears
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.868 7 0.428 86 27.8 1 13.7 31 186.4 7
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/04   7 Baylor 56 at 127 SMU 21 176 98.0%
2015/09/26  91 Rice 17 at   8 Baylor 70 179 95.5%
2015/10/03  39 Texas Tech 35 vs   5 Baylor 63 200 81.1%
2015/10/10   6 Baylor 66 at 121 Kansas 7 184 97.5%
2015/10/17  21 West Virginia 38 at   3 Baylor 62 199 81.0%
2015/10/24  81 Iowa St. 27 at   4 Baylor 45 201 95.9%
2015/11/05   7 Baylor 38 at  58 Kansas St. 28 174 81.1%
2015/11/14   6 Oklahoma 33 at   7 Baylor 35 179 52.5%
2015/11/21   7 Baylor 38 at  29 Oklahoma St. 32 184 69.9%
2015/11/27   7 Baylor 39 at  22 TCU 35 185 65.5%
2015/12/05  60 Texas 25 at   7 Baylor 37 177 84.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 16.4%
Most difficult game left: November 14, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 52.5%


Toledo Rockets
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.674 38 0.287 122 18.0 54 13.7 32 174.7 45
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  72 Toledo 16 vs  11 Arkansas 12 169 12.1%
2015/09/19  93 Iowa St. 23 at  60 Toledo 30 188 81.6%
2015/09/26  89 Arkansas St. 7 at  66 Toledo 37 186 75.7%
2015/10/03  55 Toledo 24 at  79 Ball St. 10 163 60.0%
2015/10/10 114 Kent St. 7 at  46 Toledo 38 177 93.6%
2015/10/17 120 Eastern Michigan 20 at  39 Toledo 63 177 97.0%
2015/10/24  32 Toledo 51 at 102 Massachusetts 35 215 84.8%
2015/11/03  66 Northern Ill. 27 at  38 Toledo 31 179 69.7%
2015/11/10  38 Toledo 28 at  65 Central Michigan 26 166 61.4%
2015/11/17  38 Toledo 31 at  39 Bowling Green 29 178 50.2%
2015/11/27  64 Western Michigan 28 at  38 Toledo 31 169 64.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 13.9%
Most difficult game left: November 17, at Bowling Green Falcons, 50.2%


Temple Owls
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.718 32 0.314 118 16.1 74 11.3 10 162.9 109
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/05  44 Penn State 10 at  80 Temple 27 147 42.1%
2015/09/12  53 Temple 34 at  41 Cincinnati 26 168 28.5%
2015/09/19  46 Temple 25 at 126 Massachusetts 23 203 93.7%
2015/10/02  52 Temple 37 at  NA Charlotte 3 164 96.5%
2015/10/10 115 Tulane 10 at  41 Temple 49 150 95.1%
2015/10/17 109 UCF 16 at  24 Temple 30 159 95.6%
2015/10/22  33 Temple 24 at  54 East Carolina 14 181 50.6%
2015/10/31  11 Notre Dame 28 at  32 Temple 25 165 45.9%
2015/11/06  32 Temple 30 at 100 SMU 21 164 86.6%
2015/11/14  32 Temple 25 at  78 South Florida 20 163 75.6%
2015/11/21  33 Memphis 27 at  32 Temple 28 174 52.1%
2015/11/28  98 Connecticut 18 at  32 Temple 26 163 88.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 13.8%
Most difficult game left: October 31, vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 45.9%


Long Shots

Michigan State Spartans
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.819 14 0.541 54 23.1 13 13.1 26 163.6 102
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/04   5 Michigan St. 37 at  71 Western Michigan 24 170 84.8%
2015/09/12   4 Oregon 28 at   9 Michigan St. 31 176 57.9%
2015/09/19  68 Air Force 21 at  13 Michigan St. 35 148 91.5%
2015/09/26  79 Central Michigan 10 at  10 Michigan St. 30 144 93.6%
2015/10/03  92 Purdue 21 at  11 Michigan St. 24 153 95.2%
2015/10/10  19 Michigan St. 31 at  90 Rutgers 24 155 86.6%
2015/10/17  25 Michigan St. 27 at   1 Michigan 23 159 8.1%
2015/10/24  72 Indiana 26 at  13 Michigan St. 52 184 89.7%
2015/11/07  14 Michigan St. 32 at  35 Nebraska 30 169 62.5%
2015/11/14  74 Maryland 24 at  14 Michigan St. 35 170 87.4%
2015/11/21  14 Michigan St. 27 at   4 Ohio St. 32 164 27.9%
2015/11/28  45 Penn State 23 at  14 Michigan St. 28 162 71.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 10.9%
Most difficult game left: November 21, at Ohio State Buckeyes, 27.9%


Memphis Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.700 33 0.488 67 21.6 20 15.7 51 185.3 9
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  37 Memphis 55 at 109 Kansas 23 195 80.0%
2015/09/19  33 Memphis 44 at  78 Bowling Green 41 198 70.4%
2015/09/24  62 Cincinnati 46 at  45 Memphis 53 211 72.7%
2015/10/02  53 Memphis 24 at 108 South Florida 17 172 80.9%
2015/10/17  17 Mississippi 24 at  58 Memphis 37 199 37.4%
2015/10/23  43 Memphis 66 at  82 Tulsa 42 219 67.8%
2015/10/31 119 Tulane 21 at  33 Memphis 39 176 96.9%
2015/11/07  37 Navy 30 at  33 Memphis 32 171 57.1%
2015/11/14  33 Memphis 30 at  25 Houston 33 181 37.3%
2015/11/21  33 Memphis 27 at  32 Temple 28 174 47.9%
2015/11/28 100 SMU 26 at  33 Memphis 37 175 87.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-11.5
Most difficult game left: November 14, at Houston Cougars, 37.3%


LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.822 13 0.552 49 24.3 8 13.7 31 158.9 119
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  12 LSU 21 at  19 Mississippi St. 19 174 40.1%
2015/09/19  18 Auburn 21 at  19 LSU 45 146 58.3%
2015/09/26   5 LSU 34 at  75 Syracuse 24 160 85.0%
2015/10/03 124 Eastern Michigan 22 at  14 LSU 44 147 98.5%
2015/10/10  62 South Carolina 24 at  20 LSU 45 157 82.5%
2015/10/17   7 Florida 28 at  20 LSU 35 150 45.1%
2015/10/24  55 Western Kentucky 20 at  16 LSU 48 175 82.3%
2015/11/07  13 LSU 26 at   1 Alabama 32 163 19.3%
2015/11/14  42 Arkansas 24 at  13 LSU 30 157 73.4%
2015/11/21  13 LSU 30 at  17 Mississippi 28 168 53.9%
2015/11/28  31 Texas A&M 29 at  13 LSU 32 166 63.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-20.5
Most difficult game left: November 7, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 19.3%


TCU Horned Frogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.776 22 0.490 66 24.3 8 15.2 45 184.3 10
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/03   2 TCU 23 at  46 Minnesota 17 191 78.0%
2015/09/19 106 SMU 37 at   3 TCU 56 179 98.6%
2015/09/26  16 TCU 55 at  39 Texas Tech 52 220 62.2%
2015/10/03  62 Texas 7 at  19 TCU 50 192 85.5%
2015/10/10  15 TCU 52 at  13 Kansas St. 45 165 39.8%
2015/10/17  10 TCU 45 at  76 Iowa St. 21 175 82.4%
2015/10/29  23 West Virginia 31 at  22 TCU 35 184 62.5%
2015/11/07  22 TCU 35 at  29 Oklahoma St. 33 183 50.3%
2015/11/14 125 Kansas 20 at  22 TCU 40 178 97.8%
2015/11/21  22 TCU 31 at   6 Oklahoma 34 178 32.7%
2015/11/27   7 Baylor 39 at  22 TCU 35 185 34.5%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-28.8
Most difficult game left: November 21, at Oklahoma Sooners, 32.7%


Absolute Phonies

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.740 29 0.485 70 21.3 23 14.4 41 182.0 19
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/03  61 Oklahoma St. 24 at  84 Central Michigan 13 165 48.5%
2015/09/19 103 UTSA 14 at  51 Oklahoma St. 69 179 90.6%
2015/09/26  29 Oklahoma St. 30 at  61 Texas 27 177 63.9%
2015/10/03  13 Kansas St. 34 at  34 Oklahoma St. 36 182 39.1%
2015/10/10  31 Oklahoma St. 33 at  18 West Virginia 26 215 28.7%
2015/10/24 120 Kansas 10 at  36 Oklahoma St. 58 174 97.0%
2015/10/31  29 Oklahoma St. 36 at  55 Texas Tech 35 185 56.1%
2015/11/07  22 TCU 35 at  29 Oklahoma St. 33 183 49.7%
2015/11/14  29 Oklahoma St. 34 at  82 Iowa St. 26 178 79.3%
2015/11/21   7 Baylor 38 at  29 Oklahoma St. 32 184 30.1%
2015/11/28   6 Oklahoma 33 at  29 Oklahoma St. 29 177 28.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-52.9
Most difficult game left: November 28, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 28.4%


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