Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Week 19: Tuesday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Wed Jan 1 00:24:05 2014

Arizona42Boston College19Final
Virginia Tech10UCLA44Final
Rice7Mississippi St.44Final
Duke48Texas A&M52Final

Monday, December 30, 2013

Week 19: Monday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Tue Dec 31 02:24:04 2013

Mississippi25Georgia Tech17Final
Arizona St.23Texas Tech37Final
Oregon30Texas7Final
Middle Tenn.6Navy24Final

2013 - 2014 Bowl Previews: Part VII


Today is Part VII of our 2013 - 2014 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
    Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Mississippi Rebels
  • Rose Bowl Game presented by Visio
    Michigan State Spartans vs Stanford Cardinal
  • AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic
    Missouri Tigers vs Oklahoma State Cowboys
  • Discover Orange Bowl
    Ohio State Buckeyes vs Clemson Tigers
  • Capital One Bowl
    South Carolina Gamecocks vs Wisconsin Badgers
Full previews after the jump ....

Saturday, December 28, 2013

Week 18: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Dec 29 02:24:05 2013

Michigan14Kansas St.31Final
Miami-FL9Louisville36Final
Cincinnati17North Carolina39Final
Rutgers16Notre Dame29Final

2013 - 2014 Bowl Previews: Part VI


Today is Part VI of our 2013 - 2014 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • Allstate Sugar Bowl
    Alabama Crimson Tide vs Oklahoma Sooners
  • Outback Bowl
    LSU Tigers vs Iowa Hawkeyes
  • Discover BCS National Championship Game
    Auburn Tigers vs Florida State Seminoles
  • Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
    Baylor Bears vs UCF Knights
  • Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
    Kansas State Wildcats vs Michigan Wolverines
Full previews after the jump ....

Friday, December 27, 2013

Week 18: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sat Dec 28 01:24:04 2013

Marshall31Maryland20Final
Syracuse21Minnesota17Final
BYU16Washington31Final

2013 - 2014 Bowl Previews: Part V


Today is Part V of our 2013 - 2014 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • Hyundai Sun Bowl
    UCLA Bruins vs Virginia Tech Hokies
  • BBVA Compass Bowl
    Houston Cougars vs Vanderbilt Commodores
  • Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl
    Georgia Bulldogs vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
  • Valero Alamo Bowl
    Texas Longhorns vs Oregon Ducks
  • Fight Hunger Bowl
    Washington Huskies vs BYU Cougars
Full previews after the jump ....

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Week 18: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Fri Dec 27 01:24:04 2013

Pittsburgh30Bowling Green27Final
Utah St.21Northern Ill.14Final

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Week 18: Tuesday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Tue Dec 24 23:54:03 2013

Boise St.23Oregon St.38Final

Monday, December 23, 2013

2013 - 2014 Bowl Previews: Part IV


Today is Part IV of our 2013 - 2014 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • AutoZone Liberty Bowl
    Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Rice Owls
  • National University Holiday Bowl
    Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Arizona State Sun Devils
  • Belk Bowl
    North Carolina Tar Heels vs Cincinnati Bearcats
  • Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
    Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos
  • San Diego Country Credit Union Poinettia Bowl
    Northern Illinois Huskies vs Utah State Aggies
Full previews after the jump ....

Saturday, December 21, 2013

2013 - 2014 Bowl Previews: Part III


Today is Part III of our 2013 - 2014 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
    Texas A&M Aggies vs Duke Blue Devils
  • Texas Bowl
    Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Syracuse Orange
  • Gildan New Mexico Bowl
    Colorado State Rams vs Washington State Cougars
  • Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
    San Diego State Aztecs vs Buffalo Bulls
  • Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl
    USC Trojans vs Fresno State Bulldogs
Full previews after the jump ....

Week 17: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Dec 22 01:04:05 2013

Washington St.45Colorado St.48Final
Buffalo24SDSU49Final
Fresno St.20USC45Final
Tulane21LA-Lafayette24Final

Friday, December 20, 2013

2013 - 2014 Bowl Previews: Part II


Today is Part II of our 2013 - 2014 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
    Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs Tulane Green Wave
  • GoDaddy.com Bowl
    Ball State Cardinals vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
  • AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
    Boston College Eagles vs Arizona Wildcats
  • Little Caesar's Bowl
    Bowling Green Falcons vs Pittsburgh Panthers
  • Russell Athletic Bowl
    Louisville Cardinals vs Miami Hurricanes
Full previews after the jump ....

2013 - 2014 Bowl Previews: Part I


Today is Part I of our 2013 - 2014 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl
    Ohio Bobcats vs East Carolina Pirates
  • Heart of Dallas Bowl
    North Texas Mean Green vs UNLV Rebels
  • New Era Pinstripe Bowl
    Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights
  • Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
    Navy Midshipmen vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
  • Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
    Maryland Terrapins vs Marshall Thundering Herd
Full previews after the jump ....

2013 - 2014 Bowl Previews

In just a few minutes we'll start posting our 2013-2014 bowl previews, stretching between today and December 30th. Unfortunately these pesky "day jobs" got in the way and prevented us from writing up actual full previews about the games, the matchups, and what to expect. Our previews will still contain

  • rating the bowl games from best to worst according to GUGS;
  • side-by-side comparisons of team profiles;
  • game-by-game season summaries for each team; and
  • predictions from both the RBA and TFG systems.

We'd love to do more, but sadly time won't allow this year. Our apologies, but please enjoy the statistical previews, and don't be surprised if we decide to automate the text previews for next year ....

Saturday, December 14, 2013

Week 16: Saturday Predictions


 60Navy34
104Army26
 67Navy34
 93Army24


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 16: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sat Dec 14 20:34:04 2013

Army7Navy34Final

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Week 16: Top 25 -- TFG


Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page

Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 +1 Florida St.  ( 12 - 0 ) 0.970 0.453 75 30.9 1 8.4 3 160.3 95
2 -1 Alabama  ( 10 - 1 ) 0.969 0.592 36 27.2 4 7.5 1 147.5 125
3 -- Michigan St.  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.902 0.535 59 17.9 51 7.8 2 159.3 101
4 -- Wisconsin  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.887 0.544 55 22.4 15 10.3 5 157.9 107
5 +2 Baylor  ( 10 - 1 ) 0.870 0.587 38 28.9 2 14.1 33 189.0 2
6 -- Ohio St.  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.864 0.541 57 28.1 3 14.1 32 165.6 77
7 -2 Oklahoma St.  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.858 0.608 30 24.5 10 12.5 15 183.2 7
8 +1 Stanford  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.856 0.612 26 21.8 18 11.2 7 154.9 119
9 -1 Louisville  ( 10 - 1 ) 0.851 0.398 88 21.0 28 10.9 6 155.4 118
10 +1 Auburn  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.848 0.694 4 26.5 6 13.9 26 169.5 54
11 +3 LSU  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.826 0.668 8 24.3 11 13.5 24 159.2 102
12 +1 Clemson  ( 8 - 2 ) 0.825 0.612 27 22.4 14 12.5 14 179.8 15
13 +2 Oregon  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.821 0.539 58 24.9 9 14.0 27 177.6 20
14 -4 Missouri  ( 10 - 2 ) 0.814 0.643 17 21.3 23 12.3 13 174.0 32
15 +1 Texas A&M  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.808 0.653 11 26.8 5 15.6 48 178.5 18
16 -4 Arizona St.  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.805 0.650 12 25.8 8 15.2 43 172.5 38
17 -- South Carolina  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.796 0.628 20 21.6 20 13.0 16 159.1 103
18 +2 Bowling Green  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.793 0.292 117 18.8 44 11.4 9 156.7 115
19 +2 Oklahoma  ( 10 - 2 ) 0.791 0.609 28 23.2 13 14.0 29 161.5 92
20 -2 Georgia  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.783 0.682 6 26.0 7 16.0 52 170.3 47
21 -2 Kansas St.  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.776 0.551 54 24.1 12 15.1 42 157.7 109
22 -- BYU  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.766 0.603 31 18.2 48 11.7 11 184.2 5
23 +1 Washington  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.759 0.574 46 21.0 27 13.7 25 174.0 33
24 +1 UCF  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.748 0.416 78 22.0 16 14.6 36 157.5 110
25 -2 Utah St.  ( 7 - 5 ) 0.744 0.413 81 15.4 79 10.3 4 169.0 60
Rankings through games of 2013-12-08
Data from CFBStats

New entries: none.

Dropped out: none.

For the first time since September 7, 2011, we have a new team atop the TFG rankings. That week, Ohio State blew out Arkon, 42-0, and took a slight lead over Alabama. The next week, however, the Buckeyes would win a close game against Toledo, while the Crimson Tide would defeat a solid Penn State squad. Alabama wouldn't look back, ran off a string of two BCS titles and complete domination. Even now the 2013 Crimson Tide squad would be better than any of the non-Alabama BCS champions of the last decade.

Florida State put an exclamation point on their season with a blowout of an overachieving Duke team. No one really expected Duke to win, but the Blue Devils managed to hang with the Seminoles for a quarter. The closest the Blue Devils got to FSU was with about 3 minutes left in the first quarter: the game was still tied at 0 and Duke started a drive from their own 27. It was all downhill from there. Duke's reward for getting beat by the likely 2013 BCS Champions and 2013 Heisman Award winner? Playing the 2012 Heisman Award winner in the Chik-fil-A Bowl. Sometimes life isn't fair, and sometimes life is Duke Blue Devil football unfair.

On paper the BCS title game isn't going to be much of a contest; Florida State's defense is almost as good as Alabama's (8.3 PPH vs 7.5), but their offense is currently the best in FBS. The same was said about the Iron Bowl, though, and Auburn found a way to win that in historic fashion.

The other BCS games are a mixed bag. (6) Ohio State's consolation prize is (12) Clemson, a team TFG thinks they should beat. (1) Alabama's consolation prize is to beat up on (19) Oklahoma; I imagine that one won't be pretty. Speaking of not pretty, (24) UCF is going to be fed to (5) Baylor; the Knights like to play slow to protect their second-tier defense, so look to Baylor to make a meal of them. I'm curious to see what happens when (3) Michigan State faces (8) Stanford. Both teams play a grind-it-out, defense-first style, so don't look for much glitz or style there. The Spartans are slight favorites, but Stanford will have plenty of time to prepare.

Once the full bowl schedules are released we'll get started on our previews, but until then enjoy Army-Navy.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 16: Top 25 -- RBA


Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page
Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama  ( 10 - 1 ) 0.948 0.548 19 26.3 5 6.6 1 155.7 125
2 -- Florida St.  ( 12 - 0 ) 0.936 0.540 33 30.6 1 7.3 3 165.5 81
3 -- Wisconsin  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.871 0.533 47 23.4 10 9.1 4 161.6 115
4 +1 Michigan St.  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.840 0.542 28 16.9 57 6.9 2 166.6 70
5 -1 LSU  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.840 0.550 14 26.4 4 11.6 15 160.3 119
6 +1 Oregon  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.827 0.530 53 25.9 7 11.9 18 177.5 3
7 -1 Ohio St.  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.813 0.525 58 26.0 6 12.1 21 160.5 118
8 -- Baylor  ( 10 - 1 ) 0.808 0.563 4 27.8 2 12.1 23 175.8 5
9 -- Stanford  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.803 0.544 26 23.3 11 10.9 11 166.5 71
10 +1 Missouri  ( 10 - 2 ) 0.799 0.527 55 22.7 12 11.3 12 174.4 9
11 +1 Oklahoma  ( 10 - 2 ) 0.797 0.550 16 22.2 18 10.6 9 171.6 17
12 -2 Texas A&M  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.795 0.554 9 27.6 3 13.0 35 173.9 10
13 +2 Arizona St.  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.793 0.537 38 25.4 8 12.5 29 174.7 8
14 -1 Oklahoma St.  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.786 0.555 7 22.3 15 11.7 17 175.3 6
15 -1 Clemson  ( 8 - 2 ) 0.777 0.531 51 22.3 13 11.7 16 169.0 35
16 +1 South Carolina  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.764 0.541 32 22.2 17 12.3 24 158.2 124
17 -1 Louisville  ( 10 - 1 ) 0.760 0.481 76 20.8 23 10.6 10 164.8 95
18 -- Kansas St.  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.759 0.538 37 22.3 14 12.9 34 165.4 82
19 +1 Washington  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.748 0.551 12 21.4 21 12.0 20 168.9 39
20 +2 Georgia  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.732 0.546 23 24.8 9 14.7 50 160.8 116
21 -2 Cincinnati  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.729 0.496 66 17.8 45 12.3 25 169.0 36
22 -1 Auburn  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.729 0.552 11 22.3 16 13.1 38 159.8 120
23 +2 BYU  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.724 0.485 74 16.2 68 10.6 8 170.7 26
24 -1 Iowa  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.723 0.528 54 19.0 35 10.6 6 163.8 102
25 -1 Florida  ( 4 - 7 ) 0.723 0.563 3 17.1 53 9.2 5 160.5 117
Rankings through games of 2013-12-08
Data from CFBStats

New entries: none.

Dropped out: none.

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

TFG at 1,000

It's hard to believe, but this is the 1000th post on this blog. It's been 1,509 days since I decided I needed a hobby and set virtual pen to virtual paper. In many ways I still feel like an imitation of a real sports statistician, mainly because I only do this part-time. Much has changed in the four-plus years I've been doing this, as the outside world has gotten much more sophisticated in their understanding of and analysis of college football. In particular I have a lot of respect for the crew over at Football Study Hall (helmed by Bill Connelly), Football Outsiders, and the small but awesome team of sports stats geeks at ESPN, lead by Dean Oliver. If you ever attend the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference or have a chance to meet any of these people, go do it.

This blog has been my hobby, my outlet, and my permission to find time for myself to play around with and learn new things: CSS, Javascript, some chart APIs, and OAuth. You can probably tell I'm a much better under-the-hood coder than I am a UI guy, and for that I'd like to apologize for the design here. Send me your therapy bill. But in order to get as much content online as we do, most of the posts here are created using some form of automation. This has resulted in a large codebase that is awe-inspiring, a gift, and a frustration.

I almost walked away from the blog at the beginning of the 2012 season because it had gotten too complex and there was too much happening in my life to really find time for it. I'm glad that I didn't, but it was close.

The other important thing I've learned -- in a visceral way -- is that it's really really hard to be a good writer. There's an amazing amount of time, effort, and editing that goes into creating good content; at least that's what I've been told, because I'm not sure what I write here can really be considered "good". Back in his Salon.com days, King Kaufman said that writing an article is like having to hand in an English essay: come up with a topic or idea, craft your argument or angle, go through a few drafts, and then hand it in. Now do that every (week)day for as long as you have that job. It's maddening, and the drop-off in actual human-created content is the canary in the coal mine for when my real job or life gets in the way. In that respect I'm glad that I have a day job, because there's no way I'd be able to support myself doing this by itself.

Looking back on the past few years, though, there are a few articles of which I'm pretty proud. I've gotten a lot of mileage with my off-the-cuff study of the ACC and hinting that it -- statistically -- is less predictable than the other BCS conferences.

I enjoyed exploring why all undefeated teams are not created equal, and there's a big difference between 2007 Hawaii (who got rocked in the Sugar Bowl by Georgia) and 2010 TCU (who finished the 2010-2011 season at the top of my rankings after beating Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl).

There is, of course, Tebow Tebow Tebow.

Eddie and I learned that we can't kick field goals.

We got to interview Ken Massey and Mike Leach. Coach Leach had a lot to say. But that didn't surprise us.

We were the first site (that I know of) to actually post near-real-time in-game win probabilities for all FBS games.

On a more serious note, other than our weekly ranking updates, the most-read post on this blog is still a goodbye to someone from the Fark.com community. Nasser wasn't a close friend of ours, but a sports enthusiast and a Good Guy. He's still missed, and every time I check the readership stats, his memorial post sits right there at number three.

So thanks for the first 1,000 posts, and here's to the next 1,000. I know there's a small group of dedicated readers, and I thank you for your comments, emails, and tweets. We'll check in again sometime around mid-November of 2017. Hopefully I'll have a new design up by then.

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 16: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Connecticut (0.087); Rutgers (0.069); South Alabama (0.051); Rice (0.048); Fresno St. (0.036)

Biggest drops: Memphis (-0.110); South Florida (-0.059); LA-Lafayette (-0.041); Marshall (-0.036); Arizona St. (-0.030)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 16: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Marshall (0.130); Connecticut (0.029); Arizona St. (0.022); Texas (0.018); Utah St. (0.011)

Biggest drops: Memphis (-0.054); Rutgers (-0.036); Fresno St. (-0.034); SMU (-0.033); Cincinnati (-0.025)

Full rankings after the jump.

Saturday, December 7, 2013

Week 15: Saturday Predictions


 12Arizona St.29
  9Stanford31
 15Arizona St.29
  9Stanford28

 11Auburn29
 10Missouri30
 21Auburn29
 11Missouri28

  7Baylor40
 32Texas32
  8Baylor38
 33Texas27

 96Connecticut23
 70Memphis26
107Connecticut27
 79Memphis24

  2Florida St.40
 55Duke22
  2Florida St.49
 56Duke17

 45Fresno St.27
 23Utah St.29
 44Fresno St.28
 34Utah St.27

  3Michigan St.28
  6Ohio St.24
  5Michigan St.28
  6Ohio St.24

  5Oklahoma St.33
 21Oklahoma29
 13Oklahoma St.35
 12Oklahoma24

 57Rice31
 44Marshall33
 63Rice34
 74Marshall28

 92Rutgers25
 95South Florida23
 76Rutgers28
111South Florida17

 83SMU25
 25UCF35
 69SMU21
 26UCF35

 89South Alabama30
 80LA-Lafayette32
 89South Alabama31
 66LA-Lafayette32


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 15: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Dec 8 02:34:04 2013

Stanford44Arizona St.14Final
Missouri42Auburn59Final
Texas10Baylor30Final
Utah St.17Fresno St.24Final
Memphis10Connecticut45Final
Duke7Florida St.45Final
Ohio St.24Michigan St.34Final
Oklahoma33Oklahoma St.24Final
Marshall24Rice41Final
South Florida6Rutgers31Final
LA-Lafayette8South Alabama30Final
UCF17SMU13Final

Friday, December 6, 2013

Week 15: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Fri Dec 6 23:54:04 2013

Bowling Green47Northern Ill.27Final

Week 15: Friday Predictions


 40Northern Ill.26
 20Bowling Green29
 37Northern Ill.31
 40Bowling Green21


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Thursday, December 5, 2013

Week 15: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Thu Dec 5 23:54:03 2013

Louisville31Cincinnati24Final

Week 15: Thursday Predictions


 37Cincinnati23
  8Louisville28
 19Cincinnati34
 16Louisville20


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Week 15: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG


Odds as of games through 2013-12-01


Legitimate Title Contenders

Florida State Seminoles
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.968 2 0.449 75 31.4 1 8.8 3 159.5 99
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/09/02   6 Florida St. 41 at  30 Pittsburgh 13 140 62.7%
2013/09/14  84 Nevada 7 at   5 Florida St. 62 154 97.1%
2013/09/28   3 Florida St. 48 at  90 Boston College 34 163 96.2%
2013/10/05  52 Maryland 0 at   3 Florida St. 63 170 88.8%
2013/10/19   2 Florida St. 51 at   6 Clemson 14 188 57.6%
2013/10/26  65 North Carolina St. 17 at   2 Florida St. 49 169 97.4%
2013/11/02  33 Miami-FL 14 at   2 Florida St. 41 150 89.4%
2013/11/09   2 Florida St. 59 at  83 Wake Forest 3 173 97.1%
2013/11/16  63 Syracuse 3 at   2 Florida St. 59 146 96.0%
2013/11/23 119 Idaho 14 at   2 Florida St. 80 190 99.7%
2013/11/30   2 Florida St. 37 at  34 Florida 7 137 93.0%
2013/12/07  55 Duke 22 vs   2 Florida St. 40 165 95.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 95.8%
Most difficult game left: December 7, vs Duke Blue Devils, 95.8%


What are YOU doing here??

Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.870 6 0.507 64 27.5 3 13.4 21 165.5 78
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/08/31 111 Buffalo 20 at  19 Ohio St. 40 163 93.6%
2013/09/07  57 SDSU 7 at  23 Ohio St. 42 164 79.8%
2013/09/14  13 Ohio St. 52 at  69 California 34 206 79.2%
2013/09/28   5 Wisconsin 24 at  19 Ohio St. 31 159 40.9%
2013/10/05  15 Ohio St. 40 at  27 Northwestern 30 172 58.0%
2013/10/19  37 Iowa 24 at  10 Ohio St. 34 156 80.2%
2013/10/26  29 Penn State 14 at  10 Ohio St. 63 177 74.7%
2013/11/02   7 Ohio St. 56 at 112 Purdue 0 159 96.4%
2013/11/16   4 Ohio St. 60 at  81 Illinois 35 197 94.8%
2013/11/23  59 Indiana 14 at   5 Ohio St. 42 169 87.1%
2013/11/30   5 Ohio St. 42 at  33 Michigan 41 166 79.4%
2013/12/07   6 Ohio St. 24 vs   3 Michigan St. 28 162 42.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 42.7%
Most difficult game left: December 7, vs Michigan State Spartans, 42.7%


Northern Illinois Huskies
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.643 40 0.237 125 20.8 28 16.6 60 180.7 11
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/08/31  28 Northern Ill. 30 at  68 Iowa 27 198 75.2%
2013/09/14  48 Northern Ill. 45 at 123 Idaho 35 200 94.9%
2013/09/28  68 Northern Ill. 55 at  88 Purdue 24 175 55.6%
2013/10/05  54 Northern Ill. 38 at  95 Kent St. 24 187 74.5%
2013/10/12 117 Akron 20 at  52 Northern Ill. 27 202 94.9%
2013/10/19  56 Northern Ill. 38 at 115 Central Michigan 17 170 82.5%
2013/10/26 117 Eastern Michigan 20 at  52 Northern Ill. 59 179 95.6%
2013/11/02  51 Northern Ill. 63 at 125 Massachusetts 19 163 96.7%
2013/11/13  65 Ball St. 27 at  56 Northern Ill. 48 181 62.2%
2013/11/20  45 Northern Ill. 35 at  48 Toledo 17 173 50.9%
2013/11/26 117 Western Michigan 14 at  45 Northern Ill. 33 164 93.8%
2013/12/06  20 Bowling Green 29 vs  40 Northern Ill. 26 168 33.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 33.8%
Most difficult game left: December 6, vs Bowling Green Falcons, 33.8%


One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2013-12-01

Week 15: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA


Odds as of games through 2013-12-01


Legitimate Title Contenders

Florida State Seminoles
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.931 2 0.542 28 30.9 1 7.6 3 165.4 83
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/09/02   4 Florida St. 41 at  48 Pittsburgh 13 140 21.5%
2013/09/14  73 Nevada 7 at   2 Florida St. 62 154 87.7%
2013/09/28   1 Florida St. 48 at  91 Boston College 34 163 94.8%
2013/10/05  40 Maryland 0 at   5 Florida St. 63 170 94.2%
2013/10/19   2 Florida St. 51 at   9 Clemson 14 188 52.7%
2013/10/26  57 North Carolina St. 17 at   2 Florida St. 49 169 89.5%
2013/11/02  40 Miami-FL 14 at   2 Florida St. 41 150 83.6%
2013/11/09   2 Florida St. 59 at  82 Wake Forest 3 173 94.5%
2013/11/16  60 Syracuse 3 at   2 Florida St. 59 146 92.7%
2013/11/23 120 Idaho 14 at   2 Florida St. 80 190 99.4%
2013/11/30   2 Florida St. 37 at  24 Florida 7 137 87.2%
2013/12/07  56 Duke 17 vs   2 Florida St. 49 166 94.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 94.7%
Most difficult game left: December 7, vs Duke Blue Devils, 94.7%


Absolute Phonies

Northern Illinois Huskies
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.661 37 0.435 118 19.6 31 13.7 43 166.8 66
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/08/31  46 Northern Ill. 30 at  69 Iowa 27 198 65.2%
2013/09/14  52 Northern Ill. 45 at 123 Idaho 35 200 95.7%
2013/09/28  52 Northern Ill. 55 at  82 Purdue 24 175 69.3%
2013/10/05  49 Northern Ill. 38 at  87 Kent St. 24 187 74.7%
2013/10/12 117 Akron 20 at  45 Northern Ill. 27 202 88.2%
2013/10/19  46 Northern Ill. 38 at 114 Central Michigan 17 170 91.3%
2013/10/26 118 Eastern Michigan 20 at  48 Northern Ill. 59 179 93.3%
2013/11/02  49 Northern Ill. 63 at 124 Massachusetts 19 163 97.4%
2013/11/13  63 Ball St. 27 at  48 Northern Ill. 48 181 62.5%
2013/11/20  36 Northern Ill. 35 at  66 Toledo 17 173 62.6%
2013/11/26 115 Western Michigan 14 at  36 Northern Ill. 33 164 91.4%
2013/12/06  40 Bowling Green 21 vs  37 Northern Ill. 31 167 53.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 53.4%
Most difficult game left: December 6, vs Bowling Green Falcons, 53.4%


What are YOU doing here??

Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.822 6 0.525 58 26.2 6 12.0 22 160.5 118
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/08/31 111 Buffalo 20 at  17 Ohio St. 40 163 91.9%
2013/09/07  51 SDSU 7 at  16 Ohio St. 42 164 65.0%
2013/09/14  15 Ohio St. 52 at  68 California 34 206 78.9%
2013/09/28   8 Wisconsin 24 at  11 Ohio St. 31 159 53.6%
2013/10/05  14 Ohio St. 40 at  33 Northwestern 30 172 61.9%
2013/10/19  23 Iowa 24 at  15 Ohio St. 34 156 53.4%
2013/10/26  31 Penn State 14 at  15 Ohio St. 63 177 57.5%
2013/11/02  10 Ohio St. 56 at  94 Purdue 0 159 90.0%
2013/11/16   6 Ohio St. 60 at  74 Illinois 35 197 83.6%
2013/11/23  64 Indiana 14 at   8 Ohio St. 42 169 87.3%
2013/11/30   6 Ohio St. 42 at  27 Michigan 41 166 67.9%
2013/12/07   6 Ohio St. 24 vs   5 Michigan St. 28 163 47.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 47.8%
Most difficult game left: December 7, vs Michigan State Spartans, 47.8%


One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2013-12-01