Saturday, November 30, 2013

Week 14: Saturday Predictions


 15Arizona St.36
 35Arizona30
 14Arizona St.38
 50Arizona24

 21Auburn22
  1Alabama32
 23Auburn20
  1Alabama35

 26Boise St.39
 97New Mexico26
 32Boise St.55
104New Mexico17

 83Colorado St.32
107Air Force27
 73Colorado St.41
102Air Force27

 98Connecticut25
 81Rutgers28
111Connecticut21
 74Rutgers28

 34Florida18
  2Florida St.33
 21Florida17
  2Florida St.31

117Georgia State26
 89South Alabama33
121Georgia State27
 89South Alabama34

 29Georgia Tech30
 16Georgia34
 35Georgia Tech32
 31Georgia31

104Hawaii30
101Army31
107Hawaii34
 93Army28

 82Illinois27
 65Northwestern30
 75Illinois24
 42Northwestern35

 59Indiana36
114Purdue26
 64Indiana41
 97Purdue24

113Kansas20
 20Kansas St.36
 88Kansas17
 18Kansas St.41

 95Kentucky25
 69Tennessee29
 77Kentucky27
 61Tennessee28

 77LA-Lafayette33
110LA-Monroe28
 68LA-Lafayette41
113LA-Monroe21

 61Memphis28
 92Temple23
 83Memphis28
 82Temple21

 33Michigan27
  5Ohio St.36
 27Michigan24
  8Ohio St.31

  4Michigan St.26
 63Minnesota19
  7Michigan St.31
 54Minnesota13

 74Middle Tenn.35
116UTEP24
105Middle Tenn.38
116UTEP21

 11Missouri35
 14Texas A&M33
 11Missouri34
  9Texas A&M28

 87Nevada23
 17BYU33
 86Nevada21
 20BYU38

120New Mexico St.32
119Idaho35
117New Mexico St.27
120Idaho31

 48North Carolina30
 54Duke29
 51North Carolina31
 55Duke27

 73North Carolina St.28
 91Maryland26
 79North Carolina St.27
 76Maryland24

 60Rice29
 78Tulane26
 65Rice34
101Tulane20

 18South Carolina28
 10Clemson31
 16South Carolina34
 15Clemson24

 27USC28
 30UCLA26
 22USC31
 30UCLA24

 13Stanford27
 25Notre Dame24
 17Stanford31
 33Notre Dame20

 76Syracuse26
 66Boston College27
 63Syracuse31
 67Boston College21

 52TCU26
  6Baylor39
 47TCU27
  5Baylor35

 86Tulsa24
 49North Texas29
 91Tulsa24
 72North Texas28

112UAB36
122Southern Miss.30
114UAB35
122Southern Miss.24

 93UNLV26
 67SDSU31
 96UNLV28
 71SDSU31

 56Utah34
106Colorado25
 57Utah38
100Colorado24

 28Utah St.34
102Wyoming22
 36Utah St.45
 98Wyoming14

 71UTSA30
109LA Tech24
 87UTSA31
 94LA Tech21

 42Vanderbilt27
 94Wake Forest20
 38Vanderbilt35
 85Wake Forest13

103Virginia20
 38Virginia Tech29
 95Virginia20
 49Virginia Tech28

 75West Virginia31
 79Iowa St.29
 58West Virginia28
 53Iowa St.27

 80Western Kentucky28
 85Arkansas St.26
 90Western Kentucky28
 81Arkansas St.27

  3Wisconsin31
 55Penn State20
  3Wisconsin38
 48Penn State14


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 14: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Dec 1 03:34:06 2013

Southern Miss.62UAB27Final
Arizona21Arizona St.58Final
Alabama28Auburn34Final
New Mexico17Boise St.45Final
Air Force13Colorado St.58Final
Rutgers17Connecticut28Final
Florida St.37Florida7Final
South Alabama38Georgia State17Final
Georgia41Georgia Tech34Final
Army42Hawaii49Final
Northwestern37Illinois34Final
Purdue36Indiana56Final
Kansas St.31Kansas10Final
Tennessee27Kentucky14Final
Temple41Memphis21Final
Minnesota3Michigan St.14Final
Ohio St.42Michigan41Final
UTEP17Middle Tenn.48Final
Texas A&M21Missouri28Final
Duke27North Carolina25Final
SDSU19UNLV45Final
BYU28Nevada23Final
Idaho16New Mexico St.24Final
Maryland41North Carolina St.21Final
Tulane13Rice17Final
Clemson17South Carolina31Final
UCLA35USC14Final
LA-Monroe31LA-Lafayette28Final
Notre Dame20Stanford27Final
Boston College31Syracuse34Final
Baylor41TCU38Final
LA Tech10UTSA30Final
North Texas42Tulsa10Final
Wyoming7Utah St.35Final
Colorado17Utah24Final
Wake Forest21Vanderbilt23Final
Virginia Tech16Virginia6Final
Iowa St.52West Virginia44Final
Arkansas St.31Western Kentucky34Final
Penn State31Wisconsin24Final

Friday, November 29, 2013

Week 14: Friday Predictions


115Akron23
 50Toledo34
110Akron24
 66Toledo35

 64Ball St.36
124Miami-OH22
 62Ball St.42
124Miami-OH13

 46Buffalo23
 24Bowling Green25
 84Buffalo21
 46Bowling Green38

105Central Michigan34
121Eastern Michigan26
112Central Michigan41
118Eastern Michigan21

 72FL-Atlantic32
125FIU18
108FL-Atlantic41
125FIU13

 32Houston34
 70SMU28
 43Houston35
 70SMU24

  8LSU34
 90Arkansas20
  6LSU42
 44Arkansas17

 58Marshall32
 44East Carolina35
 78Marshall27
 52East Carolina34

 39Nebraska25
 31Iowa27
 37Nebraska27
 25Iowa24

 96Ohio30
123Massachusetts22
119Ohio35
123Massachusetts14

 12Oregon35
 53Oregon St.27
  4Oregon42
 39Oregon St.21

 57Pittsburgh28
 51Miami-FL29
 59Pittsburgh31
 56Miami-FL27

 84SJSU29
 37Fresno St.36
 80SJSU27
 45Fresno St.38

100Troy32
111Texas State31
103Troy34
 92Texas State27

 19UCF31
 99South Florida19
 26UCF41
109South Florida13

 23Washington33
 68Washington St.26
 24Washington41
 60Washington St.21


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 14: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sat Nov 30 00:24:05 2013

Toledo29Akron31Final
Miami-OH14Ball St.55Final
Bowling Green24Buffalo7Final
South Florida20UCF23Final
Eastern Michigan10Central Michigan42Final
FIU6FL-Atlantic21Final
SMU0Houston34Final
Arkansas27LSU31Final
East Carolina28Marshall59Final
Iowa38Nebraska17Final
Massachusetts23Ohio51Final
Oregon St.35Oregon36Final
Miami-FL41Pittsburgh31Final
Fresno St.52SJSU62Final
Texas State28Troy42Final
Washington St.17Washington27Final

Thursday, November 28, 2013

Week 14: Thursday Predictions


 47Mississippi St.26
 36Mississippi27
 34Mississippi St.27
 28Mississippi28

 40Texas34
 45Texas Tech32
 29Texas35
 41Texas Tech27



Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Week 14 TFG Projections: SEC,Pac-12,Mountain West,Sun Belt

Projected conference champions
  • Mountain West: Utah St.
  • Pac-12: Stanford
  • SEC: Alabama
  • Sun Belt: LA-Lafayette
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 RBA Projections: SEC,Pac-12,Mountain West,Sun Belt

Projected conference champions
  • Mountain West: Utah St.
  • Pac-12: Arizona St.
  • SEC: Alabama
  • Sun Belt: LA-Lafayette
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 TFG Projections: Big Ten,Big XII,Mid-American,Independents

Projected conference champions
  • Big Ten: Michigan St.
  • Big XII: Baylor
  • Independents: Notre Dame
  • Mid-American: Bowling Green
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 RBA Projections: Big Ten,Big XII,Mid-American,Independents

Projected conference champions
  • Big Ten: Michigan St.
  • Big XII: Baylor
  • Independents: Notre Dame
  • Mid-American: Northern Ill.
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Week 14: Tuesday Predictions


 43Northern Ill.41
118Western Michigan24
 40Northern Ill.45
115Western Michigan14


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 14 TFG Projections: ACC,American Athletic,Conference-USA

Projected conference champions
  • ACC: Florida St.
  • American Athletic: UCF
  • Conference-USA: East Carolina
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 RBA Projections: ACC,American Athletic,Conference-USA

Projected conference champions
  • ACC: Florida St.
  • American Athletic: UCF
  • Conference-USA: East Carolina
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG


Odds as of games through 2013-11-24

Week 14: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA


Odds as of games through 2013-11-24

Week 14: Tuesday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Tue Nov 26 22:54:04 2013

Western Michigan14Northern Ill.33Final

Monday, November 25, 2013

Week 14: Top 25 -- TFG


Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page

Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama  ( 10 - 0 ) 0.979 0.556 49 27.5 5 6.5 1 146.8 125
2 -- Florida St.  ( 10 - 0 ) 0.965 0.433 76 31.4 1 9.0 3 160.5 98
3 -- Wisconsin  ( 8 - 2 ) 0.918 0.553 50 23.3 14 9.4 4 157.4 108
4 +3 Michigan St.  ( 9 - 1 ) 0.894 0.483 70 18.1 51 8.1 2 160.2 99
5 -- Ohio St.  ( 10 - 0 ) 0.892 0.490 67 28.1 4 12.7 17 166.1 71
6 -2 Baylor  ( 8 - 1 ) 0.888 0.587 39 30.8 2 14.2 30 186.7 2
7 +6 Oklahoma St.  ( 9 - 1 ) 0.872 0.595 34 24.8 11 12.1 13 184.2 5
8 +3 LSU  ( 7 - 3 ) 0.871 0.709 2 25.4 8 12.4 15 160.1 100
9 -1 Louisville  ( 9 - 1 ) 0.853 0.364 95 21.0 24 10.8 5 152.7 123
10 -- Clemson  ( 8 - 1 ) 0.847 0.590 37 23.3 13 12.3 14 182.2 11
11 +3 Missouri  ( 9 - 1 ) 0.843 0.603 33 21.5 18 11.4 10 174.1 32
12 -6 Oregon  ( 8 - 2 ) 0.840 0.538 60 25.0 10 13.4 20 176.0 24
13 -1 Stanford  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.837 0.582 41 20.9 26 11.3 9 156.1 115
14 -5 Texas A&M  ( 7 - 3 ) 0.830 0.636 16 28.7 3 15.8 51 180.6 14
15 -- Arizona St.  ( 8 - 2 ) 0.820 0.629 19 26.2 7 14.8 43 173.9 34
16 +5 Georgia  ( 6 - 4 ) 0.794 0.687 8 26.7 6 16.1 53 168.5 58
17 -1 BYU  ( 6 - 4 ) 0.788 0.632 18 18.3 48 11.1 7 186.6 3
18 -- South Carolina  ( 8 - 2 ) 0.786 0.618 23 21.4 20 13.1 18 160.8 95
19 -- UCF  ( 9 - 1 ) 0.785 0.422 81 23.7 12 14.6 38 158.6 106
20 -3 Kansas St.  ( 6 - 4 ) 0.784 0.609 26 25.1 9 15.4 45 156.9 111
21 -1 Auburn  ( 9 - 1 ) 0.784 0.626 21 21.9 17 13.5 22 167.6 63
22 -- Oklahoma  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.783 0.589 38 22.6 15 14.0 26 162.0 91
23 NA Washington  ( 6 - 4 ) 0.756 0.591 36 21.5 19 14.1 28 173.8 35
24 NA Bowling Green  ( 7 - 3 ) 0.746 0.234 124 18.0 53 12.0 12 154.8 117
25 NA Notre Dame  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.730 0.604 32 19.3 38 13.3 19 163.5 83
Rankings through games of 2013-11-24
Data from CFBStats

New entries: Washington, Bowling Green, Notre Dame.

Dropped out: USC, Boise St., Houston.

We're coming down the home stretch and Alabama and Florida State seem to be a sea of tranquility surrounded by chaos. Baylor loss? Check. SEC East madness? Check. Boise losing a close game because of kicking issues? Check. The rare Oregon-loss-Stanford-loss-Oregon-loss triple lutz? Check. Year-in and year-out the Pac-12 -- Oregon and Stanford in particular -- seems destined to play out the worst-case scenario of a Mexican standoff. Ohio State is waiting in the wings hoping that eventually the chaos will overtake either the Crimson Tide or the Seminoles, ignoring the fact that they've got a large, green speedbump in front of them.

However even the sea of tranquility doesn't look that calm for the top two. TFG has the Crimson Tide as 93% likely to beat Auburn, but Vegas pins the odds a bit closer to 77%. A quick back-of-the-envelope has the Crimson Tide as about 90% favorites over the eventual SEC East winner, meaning Alabama is somewhere between 69% and 84% likely to win out. FSU are heavy favorites against the Gators, and are waiting for whichever team the ACC Coastal will serve up. Currently there's
  • a 49.4% chance it'll be Virginia Tech;
  • a 43.8% chance it'll be Duke;
  • a 3.5% chance of Miami; and
  • a 3.3% chance of Georgia Tech.
Yes, Duke are actually underdogs to a 6-5 UNC squad. TFG says that FSU shouldn't have any issues dealing with any of those teams. Of course, there's always the legal action hanging over Jameis Winston, and that will and should proceed by the book and at its own pace. Well, it should; whether or not it will is another matter altogether.

Ohio State is just two wins away from its second undefeated season, but they've got Michigan State waiting for them in the B1G title game. The Spartans will be the second-best team the Buckeyes have faced this year, and this time Ohio State won't have home field advantage.

For all the Buckeye fans who complain about TFG putting them behind Wisconsin -- a team they beat 31-24 -- answer me this:

Which is the best Pac-12 team: Stanford, Oregon, or Utah?
  1. If you said Oregon, clearly you're wrong because Stanford beat Oregon.
  2. If you said Stanford, clearly you're wrong because Utah beat Stanford.
  3. If you said Utah, clearly you're wrong because Oregon beat Utah.
Sometimes the better team loses, and in this case my computer argues that the better team lost in late September. As it stands, though, Ohio State has about a 40% chance of finishing the season undefeated. Combined with Alabama and FSU's remaining schedule, we have the following odds for title game matchups:
  • 67% chance of Alabama-FSU;
  • 8.6% chance of FSU-Ohio State;
  • 3.5% chance of Alabama-Ohio State;
  • 1.7% chance that Alabama, FSU, and Ohio State all lose before the end of the season; and
  • 19.2% chance of [other].
As to what [other] is, I'm not sure, but Football Study Hall has a pretty good breakdown of the possibilities. Check back in with us next week for updated odds.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 14: Top 25 -- RBA


Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page
Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama  ( 10 - 0 ) 0.948 0.547 21 26.7 4 5.8 1 155.7 125
2 -- Florida St.  ( 10 - 0 ) 0.930 0.542 30 30.8 1 7.9 3 165.6 81
3 +2 Wisconsin  ( 8 - 2 ) 0.862 0.532 47 23.9 10 8.5 4 161.6 115
4 -1 Oregon  ( 8 - 2 ) 0.845 0.530 52 26.1 6 11.6 18 177.4 3
5 -1 Baylor  ( 8 - 1 ) 0.831 0.561 3 28.7 2 12.6 27 175.5 5
6 +2 LSU  ( 7 - 3 ) 0.827 0.551 14 26.6 5 11.1 13 160.4 119
7 -- Michigan St.  ( 9 - 1 ) 0.816 0.542 31 17.3 50 7.3 2 166.7 69
8 -2 Ohio St.  ( 10 - 0 ) 0.816 0.525 60 26.1 7 11.4 15 160.5 118
9 -- Texas A&M  ( 7 - 3 ) 0.793 0.555 8 27.7 3 13.2 36 173.9 10
10 +8 Oklahoma  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.790 0.550 15 22.1 18 10.7 8 171.5 17
11 -- Missouri  ( 9 - 1 ) 0.785 0.526 56 22.5 14 10.7 7 174.3 9
12 +3 Oklahoma St.  ( 9 - 1 ) 0.779 0.554 9 22.5 15 11.4 16 175.3 6
13 +3 Louisville  ( 9 - 1 ) 0.775 0.481 77 20.6 25 11.0 12 164.7 96
14 -- Arizona St.  ( 8 - 2 ) 0.774 0.538 38 24.7 9 12.7 28 174.8 8
15 -5 Clemson  ( 8 - 1 ) 0.764 0.530 51 22.7 13 11.6 17 169.0 35
16 +1 South Carolina  ( 8 - 2 ) 0.758 0.540 33 22.2 16 12.3 24 158.2 124
17 -4 Stanford  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.758 0.544 25 23.0 12 10.9 11 166.7 68
18 -6 Kansas St.  ( 6 - 4 ) 0.758 0.539 35 23.4 11 13.1 34 165.4 83
19 NA Cincinnati  ( 8 - 2 ) 0.754 0.495 65 18.8 38 11.3 14 168.9 37
20 -1 BYU  ( 6 - 4 ) 0.737 0.485 74 16.5 64 10.1 6 170.6 26
21 +1 Florida  ( 4 - 6 ) 0.729 0.561 4 16.9 56 10.0 5 160.7 116
22 +2 USC  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.727 0.535 44 19.5 31 12.2 22 166.6 72
23 -- Auburn  ( 9 - 1 ) 0.726 0.551 12 21.7 20 13.0 32 159.7 120
24 +1 Washington  ( 6 - 4 ) 0.716 0.552 10 22.2 17 12.3 25 168.8 41
25 -4 Iowa  ( 6 - 4 ) 0.714 0.527 54 18.3 41 10.8 9 163.8 102
Rankings through games of 2013-11-24
Data from CFBStats

New entries: Cincinnati.

Dropped out: UCF.

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.