Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Week 16: Top 25 -- TFG


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Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 +1 Florida St.  ( 12 - 0 ) 0.970 0.453 75 30.9 1 8.4 3 160.3 95
2 -1 Alabama  ( 10 - 1 ) 0.969 0.592 36 27.2 4 7.5 1 147.5 125
3 -- Michigan St.  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.902 0.535 59 17.9 51 7.8 2 159.3 101
4 -- Wisconsin  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.887 0.544 55 22.4 15 10.3 5 157.9 107
5 +2 Baylor  ( 10 - 1 ) 0.870 0.587 38 28.9 2 14.1 33 189.0 2
6 -- Ohio St.  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.864 0.541 57 28.1 3 14.1 32 165.6 77
7 -2 Oklahoma St.  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.858 0.608 30 24.5 10 12.5 15 183.2 7
8 +1 Stanford  ( 11 - 2 ) 0.856 0.612 26 21.8 18 11.2 7 154.9 119
9 -1 Louisville  ( 10 - 1 ) 0.851 0.398 88 21.0 28 10.9 6 155.4 118
10 +1 Auburn  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.848 0.694 4 26.5 6 13.9 26 169.5 54
11 +3 LSU  ( 8 - 3 ) 0.826 0.668 8 24.3 11 13.5 24 159.2 102
12 +1 Clemson  ( 8 - 2 ) 0.825 0.612 27 22.4 14 12.5 14 179.8 15
13 +2 Oregon  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.821 0.539 58 24.9 9 14.0 27 177.6 20
14 -4 Missouri  ( 10 - 2 ) 0.814 0.643 17 21.3 23 12.3 13 174.0 32
15 +1 Texas A&M  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.808 0.653 11 26.8 5 15.6 48 178.5 18
16 -4 Arizona St.  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.805 0.650 12 25.8 8 15.2 43 172.5 38
17 -- South Carolina  ( 9 - 2 ) 0.796 0.628 20 21.6 20 13.0 16 159.1 103
18 +2 Bowling Green  ( 9 - 3 ) 0.793 0.292 117 18.8 44 11.4 9 156.7 115
19 +2 Oklahoma  ( 10 - 2 ) 0.791 0.609 28 23.2 13 14.0 29 161.5 92
20 -2 Georgia  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.783 0.682 6 26.0 7 16.0 52 170.3 47
21 -2 Kansas St.  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.776 0.551 54 24.1 12 15.1 42 157.7 109
22 -- BYU  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.766 0.603 31 18.2 48 11.7 11 184.2 5
23 +1 Washington  ( 7 - 4 ) 0.759 0.574 46 21.0 27 13.7 25 174.0 33
24 +1 UCF  ( 11 - 1 ) 0.748 0.416 78 22.0 16 14.6 36 157.5 110
25 -2 Utah St.  ( 7 - 5 ) 0.744 0.413 81 15.4 79 10.3 4 169.0 60
Rankings through games of 2013-12-08
Data from CFBStats

New entries: none.

Dropped out: none.

For the first time since September 7, 2011, we have a new team atop the TFG rankings. That week, Ohio State blew out Arkon, 42-0, and took a slight lead over Alabama. The next week, however, the Buckeyes would win a close game against Toledo, while the Crimson Tide would defeat a solid Penn State squad. Alabama wouldn't look back, ran off a string of two BCS titles and complete domination. Even now the 2013 Crimson Tide squad would be better than any of the non-Alabama BCS champions of the last decade.

Florida State put an exclamation point on their season with a blowout of an overachieving Duke team. No one really expected Duke to win, but the Blue Devils managed to hang with the Seminoles for a quarter. The closest the Blue Devils got to FSU was with about 3 minutes left in the first quarter: the game was still tied at 0 and Duke started a drive from their own 27. It was all downhill from there. Duke's reward for getting beat by the likely 2013 BCS Champions and 2013 Heisman Award winner? Playing the 2012 Heisman Award winner in the Chik-fil-A Bowl. Sometimes life isn't fair, and sometimes life is Duke Blue Devil football unfair.

On paper the BCS title game isn't going to be much of a contest; Florida State's defense is almost as good as Alabama's (8.3 PPH vs 7.5), but their offense is currently the best in FBS. The same was said about the Iron Bowl, though, and Auburn found a way to win that in historic fashion.

The other BCS games are a mixed bag. (6) Ohio State's consolation prize is (12) Clemson, a team TFG thinks they should beat. (1) Alabama's consolation prize is to beat up on (19) Oklahoma; I imagine that one won't be pretty. Speaking of not pretty, (24) UCF is going to be fed to (5) Baylor; the Knights like to play slow to protect their second-tier defense, so look to Baylor to make a meal of them. I'm curious to see what happens when (3) Michigan State faces (8) Stanford. Both teams play a grind-it-out, defense-first style, so don't look for much glitz or style there. The Spartans are slight favorites, but Stanford will have plenty of time to prepare.

Once the full bowl schedules are released we'll get started on our previews, but until then enjoy Army-Navy.


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