Week 15: Top 25 -- TFG

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Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama  ( 10 - 1 )	0.969	0.590	36	27.3	4	7.5	1	147.6	125
2	--	Florida St.  ( 11 - 0 )	0.968	0.449	75	31.4	1	8.8	3	159.5	99
3	+1	Michigan St.  ( 10 - 1 )	0.900	0.491	69	17.2	57	7.5	2	159.4	100
4	-1	Wisconsin  ( 8 - 3 )	0.890	0.551	54	22.5	15	10.2	4	157.7	109
5	+2	Oklahoma St.  ( 9 - 1 )	0.875	0.589	37	24.9	9	12.0	13	183.2	7
6	-1	Ohio St.  ( 11 - 0 )	0.870	0.507	64	27.5	3	13.4	21	165.5	78
7	-1	Baylor  ( 9 - 1 )	0.863	0.581	43	29.9	2	15.0	42	188.7	2
8	+1	Louisville  ( 9 - 1 )	0.857	0.372	100	21.0	25	10.7	6	153.0	122
9	+4	Stanford  ( 10 - 2 )	0.837	0.593	33	21.3	23	11.5	10	155.4	118
10	+1	Missouri  ( 10 - 1 )	0.837	0.619	25	20.9	26	11.3	8	172.7	37
11	+10	Auburn  ( 10 - 1 )	0.837	0.682	6	24.8	10	13.4	23	168.4	61
12	+3	Arizona St.  ( 9 - 2 )	0.835	0.626	22	27.0	6	14.7	37	173.4	34
13	-3	Clemson  ( 8 - 2 )	0.826	0.615	26	22.4	16	12.5	15	179.9	15
14	-6	LSU  ( 8 - 3 )	0.826	0.668	9	24.3	11	13.6	27	159.3	102
15	-3	Oregon  ( 9 - 2 )	0.820	0.538	55	24.9	8	14.1	30	177.5	20
16	-2	Texas A&M  ( 7 - 4 )	0.810	0.648	14	27.1	5	15.7	49	178.6	18
17	+1	South Carolina  ( 9 - 2 )	0.801	0.634	18	21.8	20	12.9	16	159.2	103
18	-2	Georgia  ( 7 - 4 )	0.787	0.683	5	26.3	7	16.1	53	170.6	47
19	+1	Kansas St.  ( 7 - 4 )	0.781	0.558	52	24.1	12	14.9	38	157.6	110
20	+4	Bowling Green  ( 8 - 3 )	0.779	0.258	123	17.9	50	11.1	7	156.1	116
21	+1	Oklahoma  ( 9 - 2 )	0.776	0.580	44	22.6	14	14.1	32	161.4	93
22	-5	BYU  ( 7 - 4 )	0.769	0.610	28	18.2	48	11.6	12	184.2	5
23	NA	Utah St.  ( 7 - 4 )	0.760	0.389	90	16.0	69	10.3	5	169.2	57
24	-1	Washington  ( 7 - 4 )	0.760	0.579	45	21.0	24	13.6	26	173.7	33
25	-6	UCF  ( 10 - 1 )	0.758	0.424	78	23.1	13	15.0	40	159.2	104

Rankings through games of 2013-12-01
Data from CFBStats

New entries: Utah St..

Dropped out: Notre Dame.

Well, that happened.

As of today, only Duke and Michigan State stand between a Florida State/Ohio State BCS title game. The catch, though, is that TFG has Michigan State as the favorites against the Buckeyes; a team that's a real threat to win the national title rarely gives up 41 points, even if it is on the road against a rival team. Ohio State -- much like Urban Meyer's Florida teams -- has been solid on offense but iffy on defense at times. They've been able to blow out really bad competition (see: Indiana) but have struggled against mid-to-top-tier talent (see: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Northwestern). The Spartans aren't an offensive powerhouse, but they are tied with Alabama for having the top defense in FBS at 7.5 PPH. The best defense the Buckeyes have seen so far this year has been Wisconsin's, at 10.2 PPH; in that game Ohio State scored a season-low 31 points, and needed some serious luck just before halftime just to get to that total.

FSU should have a much easier path. Duke's 10-2 record is an aberration, given that they're basically (6-5) Boston College's offense combined with (4-7) Tennessee's defense. The average score in Duke's ACC games is 32.3 - 28.0, and they've wrangled a 6-2 record out of that. The odds of them beating FSU are amazingly slim, but hey, did you see that Iron Bowl?

Speaking of Auburn, the Tigers are in the process of (a) replicating the rather improbable and skin-of-their-teeth 2010 title run, and (b) blowing the doors off the record for biggest one-season turnaround. The previous record was held by Ole Miss for leaping from 0.400 to 0.774 between 2007 and 2008; the 2012 Auburn squad finished at 0.297, but currently sits at 0.837. That's a turnaround of 0.540, and they've done it against the 6th-most-difficult schedule in FBS. A win against Missouri, combined with a loss by either FSU (unlikely) or Ohio State (probable) and the Tigers will be back in the title game.

Speaking of the title games, let's break down the likely scenarios.

1. FSU and Ohio State win out. They're both in.
2. FSU wins, Ohio State loses. SEC champion (either Mizzou or Auburn) are in.
3. FSU loses, Ohio State loses. SEC champion plus Alabama are in.

It's possible that Oklahoma State might leap Alabama if the human element of the BCS doesn't want to see an Iron Bowl II, but I'm not sure the Cowboys can overcome the current gap (image taken from SBNation).

Scenario	Odds
FSU/Ohio State	40.9%
FSU/Missouri	27.5%
FSU/Auburn	27.4%
Iron Bowl II	1.2%
Missouri/Alabama	1.2%
Ohio State/Missouri	0.9%
Ohio State/Auburn	0.9%

Also, I rest my case regarding Kansas State.


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