Thursday, October 24, 2013

Week 9: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG


Odds as of games through 2013-10-20




Legitimate Title Contenders

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.983 1 0.490 58 28.3 6 6.2 1 147.1 124

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/08/31  45 Virginia Tech 10 vs   1 Alabama 35 157 96.7%
2013/09/14   1 Alabama 49 at   7 Texas A&M 42 167 72.9%
2013/09/21 108 Colorado St. 6 at   1 Alabama 31 138 99.5%
2013/09/28  31 Mississippi 0 at   1 Alabama 25 152 94.0%
2013/10/05  NA Georgia State 3 at   1 Alabama 45 134 99.9%
2013/10/12   1 Alabama 48 at  76 Kentucky 7 158 97.2%
2013/10/19  66 Arkansas 0 at   1 Alabama 52 142 98.7%
2013/10/26  51 Tennessee 18 at   1 Alabama 37 159 98.6%
2013/11/09   7 LSU 23 at   1 Alabama 32 155 92.2%
2013/11/16   1 Alabama 32 at  46 Mississippi St. 17 151 97.4%
2013/11/30   1 Alabama 32 at  40 Auburn 18 157 96.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.2
Most difficult game left: November 9, vs LSU Tigers, 92.2%



Florida State Seminoles
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.954 2 0.552 44 30.5 3 9.7 4 161.0 92

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/09/02   6 Florida St. 41 at  30 Pittsburgh 13 140 62.7%
2013/09/14  84 Nevada 7 at   5 Florida St. 62 154 97.1%
2013/09/28   3 Florida St. 48 at  90 Boston College 34 163 96.2%
2013/10/05  52 Maryland 0 at   3 Florida St. 63 170 88.8%
2013/10/19   2 Florida St. 51 at   6 Clemson 14 188 57.6%
2013/10/26  65 North Carolina St. 19 at   2 Florida St. 39 166 97.4%
2013/11/02  25 Miami-FL 26 at   2 Florida St. 38 165 89.0%
2013/11/09   2 Florida St. 37 at  81 Wake Forest 18 164 97.1%
2013/11/16  74 Syracuse 20 at   2 Florida St. 39 165 96.7%
2013/11/23 120 Idaho 15 at   2 Florida St. 46 166 99.6%
2013/11/30   2 Florida St. 31 at  15 Florida 20 156 83.5%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.5
Most difficult game left: November 30, at Florida Gators, 83.5%



Second-Tier Hopefuls

Northern Illinois Huskies
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.559 52 0.216 124 19.3 36 17.7 72 184.7 6

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/08/31  28 Northern Ill. 30 at  68 Iowa 27 198 75.2%
2013/09/14  48 Northern Ill. 45 at 123 Idaho 35 200 94.9%
2013/09/28  68 Northern Ill. 55 at  88 Purdue 24 175 55.6%
2013/10/05  54 Northern Ill. 38 at  95 Kent St. 24 187 74.5%
2013/10/12 117 Akron 20 at  52 Northern Ill. 27 202 94.9%
2013/10/19  56 Northern Ill. 38 at 115 Central Michigan 17 170 82.5%
2013/10/26 117 Eastern Michigan 24 at  52 Northern Ill. 43 169 95.6%
2013/11/02  52 Northern Ill. 34 at 124 Massachusetts 20 172 97.5%
2013/11/13  69 Ball St. 31 at  52 Northern Ill. 34 181 64.7%
2013/11/20  52 Northern Ill. 34 at  73 Toledo 31 176 63.9%
2013/11/26 118 Western Michigan 24 at  52 Northern Ill. 37 176 92.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-2.8
Most difficult game left: November 20, at Toledo Rockets, 63.9%



Baylor Bears
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.904 3 0.543 47 34.0 1 14.6 33 185.2 4

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/09/07 108 Buffalo 13 at  24 Baylor 70 187 96.1%
2013/09/21  98 LA-Monroe 7 at  17 Baylor 70 190 95.2%
2013/10/05  57 West Virginia 42 at   6 Baylor 73 205 89.8%
2013/10/12  14 Baylor 35 at  35 Kansas St. 25 165 59.6%
2013/10/19  52 Iowa St. 7 at   9 Baylor 71 185 88.5%
2013/10/26   3 Baylor 44 at  99 Kansas 24 175 94.6%
2013/11/07  19 Oklahoma 30 at   3 Baylor 41 174 76.0%
2013/11/16  36 Texas Tech 32 vs   3 Baylor 45 189 80.1%
2013/11/23   3 Baylor 44 at  23 Oklahoma St. 33 186 75.2%
2013/11/30   3 Baylor 40 at  43 TCU 27 172 83.5%
2013/12/07  38 Texas 32 at   3 Baylor 44 179 81.0%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.4
Most difficult game left: November 23, at Oklahoma State Cowboys, 75.2%



Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.836 10 0.581 39 26.6 7 14.4 32 164.1 77

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/08/31 111 Buffalo 20 at  19 Ohio St. 40 163 93.6%
2013/09/07  57 SDSU 7 at  23 Ohio St. 42 164 79.8%
2013/09/14  13 Ohio St. 52 at  69 California 34 206 79.2%
2013/09/28   5 Wisconsin 24 at  19 Ohio St. 31 159 40.9%
2013/10/05  15 Ohio St. 40 at  27 Northwestern 30 172 58.0%
2013/10/19  37 Iowa 24 at  10 Ohio St. 34 156 80.2%
2013/10/26  29 Penn State 25 at  10 Ohio St. 34 170 74.7%
2013/11/02  10 Ohio St. 37 at 111 Purdue 21 162 95.3%
2013/11/16  10 Ohio St. 37 at  62 Illinois 27 163 83.7%
2013/11/23  47 Indiana 33 at  10 Ohio St. 40 174 76.6%
2013/11/30  10 Ohio St. 35 at  22 Michigan 32 163 62.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.5
Most difficult game left: November 30, at Michigan Wolverines, 62.1%



Oregon Ducks
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.895 4 0.477 61 28.8 4 12.8 16 179.5 16

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/09/07   3 Oregon 59 at  64 Virginia 10 186 86.2%
2013/09/14  42 Tennessee 14 at   2 Oregon 59 175 93.6%
2013/09/28  62 California 16 at   2 Oregon 55 206 96.5%
2013/10/05   2 Oregon 57 at  96 Colorado 16 194 97.3%
2013/10/12   3 Oregon 45 at  15 Washington 24 183 65.2%
2013/10/19  68 Washington St. 38 at   3 Oregon 62 210 95.9%
2013/10/26  27 UCLA 27 at   4 Oregon 38 177 82.4%
2013/11/07   4 Oregon 33 at   8 Stanford 29 168 56.1%
2013/11/16  37 Utah 29 at   4 Oregon 38 172 78.9%
2013/11/23   4 Oregon 40 at  42 Arizona 29 181 81.4%
2013/11/29  34 Oregon St. 30 at   4 Oregon 38 172 77.5%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.3
Most difficult game left: November 7, at Stanford Cardinal, 56.1%



Long Shots

Missouri Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.821 12 0.631 24 23.0 17 13.0 18 172.4 37

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/09/07  75 Toledo 23 at  54 Missouri 38 163 79.8%
2013/09/21  46 Missouri 45 at  52 Indiana 28 209 42.6%
2013/09/28  97 Arkansas St. 19 at  37 Missouri 41 173 92.8%
2013/10/05  38 Missouri 51 at  51 Vanderbilt 28 176 49.6%
2013/10/12  28 Missouri 41 at  13 Georgia 26 175 27.0%
2013/10/19   8 Florida 17 at  20 Missouri 36 166 47.5%
2013/10/26  20 South Carolina 26 at  12 Missouri 31 165 68.7%
2013/11/02  51 Tennessee 26 at  12 Missouri 35 171 81.0%
2013/11/09  12 Missouri 34 at  83 Kentucky 23 166 88.5%
2013/11/23  12 Missouri 31 at  41 Mississippi 26 172 69.7%
2013/11/30  13 Texas A&M 35 at  12 Missouri 38 177 50.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-5.8
Most difficult game left: November 30, vs Texas A&M Aggies, 50.6%



Fresno State Bulldogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.599 48 0.306 112 20.9 29 18.0 74 183.6 8

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/08/29  42 Rutgers 51 at  44 Fresno St. 52 209 48.5%
2013/09/14  54 Fresno St. 34 at 101 Colorado 28 175 77.0%
2013/09/20  45 Boise St. 40 at  50 Fresno St. 41 212 57.9%
2013/09/28  56 Fresno St. 42 at 116 Hawaii 37 210 87.0%
2013/10/05  58 Fresno St. 61 at 120 Idaho 14 213 92.4%
2013/10/19 110 UNLV 14 at  49 Fresno St. 38 179 91.4%
2013/10/26  48 Fresno St. 31 at  70 SDSU 30 173 53.5%
2013/11/02  78 Nevada 30 at  48 Fresno St. 38 178 76.0%
2013/11/09  48 Fresno St. 37 at  85 Wyoming 31 180 72.9%
2013/11/23 108 New Mexico 28 at  48 Fresno St. 40 168 86.1%
2013/11/29  48 Fresno St. 36 at  82 SJSU 29 176 74.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-6.8
Most difficult game left: October 26, at San Diego State Aztecs, 53.5%



Absolute Phonies

Miami Hurricanes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.755 25 0.552 43 23.1 16 15.1 38 170.5 49

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/08/30 106 FL-Atlantic 6 at  61 Miami-FL 34 173 81.7%
2013/09/07   6 Florida 16 at  33 Miami-FL 21 158 27.7%
2013/09/28  26 Miami-FL 49 at 105 South Florida 21 159 90.2%
2013/10/05  49 Georgia Tech 30 at  36 Miami-FL 45 157 66.5%
2013/10/17  26 Miami-FL 27 at  72 North Carolina 23 188 70.6%
2013/10/26  81 Wake Forest 21 at  25 Miami-FL 34 168 90.7%
2013/11/02  25 Miami-FL 26 at   2 Florida St. 38 165 11.0%
2013/11/09  32 Virginia Tech 24 at  25 Miami-FL 28 166 57.3%
2013/11/16  25 Miami-FL 36 at  61 Duke 29 172 75.1%
2013/11/23  90 Virginia 23 at  25 Miami-FL 34 173 87.8%
2013/11/29  25 Miami-FL 31 at  50 Pittsburgh 26 164 69.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-38.1
Most difficult game left: November 2, at Florida State Seminoles, 11.0%



What are YOU doing here??


Texas Tech Red Raiders
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2013 0.699 36 0.456 68 19.8 32 14.4 31 193.4 1

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2013/08/30  56 Texas Tech 41 at  52 SMU 23 216 44.9%
2013/09/12  31 TCU 10 at  38 Texas Tech 20 187 57.6%
2013/09/21 100 Texas State 7 at  38 Texas Tech 33 192 92.1%
2013/10/05  25 Texas Tech 54 at 100 Kansas 16 211 88.2%
2013/10/12  58 Iowa St. 35 at  31 Texas Tech 42 216 79.1%
2013/10/19  31 Texas Tech 37 at  55 West Virginia 27 190 59.3%
2013/10/26  36 Texas Tech 28 at  19 Oklahoma 33 178 28.2%
2013/11/02  23 Oklahoma St. 33 at  36 Texas Tech 32 190 47.3%
2013/11/09  24 Kansas St. 32 at  36 Texas Tech 31 174 47.5%
2013/11/16  36 Texas Tech 32 vs   3 Baylor 45 189 19.9%
2013/11/28  36 Texas Tech 33 at  38 Texas 31 183 51.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-154.3
Most difficult game left: November 16, vs Baylor Bears, 19.9%


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