Monday, October 14, 2013

Week 8: Top 25 -- TFG


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Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.976 0.502 59 27.4 6 6.8 1 147.7 124
2 -- Florida St. 0.945 0.505 57 30.0 3 10.3 6 158.0 107
3 -- Oregon 0.922 0.499 62 28.9 4 11.4 10 176.7 23
4 +5 Wisconsin 0.908 0.554 42 22.2 20 9.4 3 156.3 112
5 +1 Louisville 0.896 0.327 106 23.5 13 10.4 8 151.0 121
6 -1 Clemson 0.885 0.590 37 23.5 12 10.9 9 175.1 28
7 -- LSU 0.884 0.613 27 26.6 9 12.4 16 162.6 84
8 -4 Florida 0.866 0.651 14 16.3 68 8.1 2 152.8 119
9 +4 Baylor 0.863 0.547 44 32.4 1 16.2 53 186.9 4
10 +2 Ohio St. 0.849 0.571 39 26.8 8 14.0 29 164.8 72
11 -3 Texas A&M 0.844 0.658 13 31.2 2 16.5 56 180.0 14
12 -2 Stanford 0.836 0.598 34 22.6 17 12.2 13 158.2 104
13 +3 Georgia 0.832 0.736 4 26.9 7 14.8 32 167.6 62
14 -3 Oklahoma 0.811 0.601 32 20.8 28 12.0 12 164.0 76
15 +10 South Carolina 0.810 0.614 26 23.1 14 13.4 24 157.4 109
16 +5 UCLA 0.795 0.501 61 20.7 29 12.4 15 176.4 26
17 +1 BYU 0.790 0.516 53 17.0 56 10.3 5 179.2 16
18 NA Nebraska 0.782 0.463 69 22.1 21 13.6 26 170.3 50
19 +1 UCF 0.781 0.373 96 21.3 25 13.2 21 157.0 111
20 NA Missouri 0.781 0.615 25 21.2 26 13.2 20 172.4 37
21 -6 Washington 0.776 0.747 3 20.0 35 12.6 17 171.3 46
22 -- Arizona St. 0.776 0.679 9 27.5 5 17.2 68 176.5 25
23 -6 Michigan St. 0.775 0.528 50 15.8 71 9.9 4 167.8 59
24 NA Boise St. 0.772 0.401 89 20.9 27 13.2 22 164.8 73
25 -1 Penn State 0.762 0.528 49 18.1 46 11.7 11 177.6 18
Rankings through games of 2013-10-13
Data from CFBStats

New entries: Nebraska, Missouri, Boise St..

Dropped out: Miami-FL, Notre Dame, TCU.

Oh Oregon. What am I going to do with you? I think you're better than your current ranking suggests, but then you go and give up 24 points to Washington. I feel like I should rank you higher, given that so many of the points you give up are in garbage time, but then you have a weekend like this.

In the big picture, there three teams which have clearly separated themselves from the rest of the pack: Alabama, Oregon, and Florida State. It's possible that FSU is actually better than Oregon on both sides of the ball, but I'm skeptical. As it stands, I'm willing to say that the Seminoles and the Ducks are co-number-two teams, which could get interesting near the end of the year.

Conventional wisdom has Ohio State and Clemson as filling out the rest of the top five, but neither team has really put in the kind of performance as the three other teams. Boston College is the one common opponent for FSU and Clemson, but their losses to those teams have very different flavors. BC played both teams relatively even, but FSU eventually dominated the Eagles in a way that Clemson didn't. BC went up 17-3 over the Seminoles, but over a 22-minute stretch FSU outscored them 35-3 and were never really threatened again. Clemson got two quick scores in the 4th quarter to make the final margin 24-14, but the second score was a fumble-six, and the teams traded a series of go-nowhere drives until the clock ran out.

Ohio State continues to skate by on the narrowest of margins, eeking out narrow wins over Northwestern and Wisconsin. The Buckeyes are climbing in the TFG rankings, but doing so by getting just slightly more offense than they did last year (+3.3 PPH); their defense has improved slightly (-1.7 PPH), but isn't even top-25 at this point. Combine (1) Alabama's offense with (36) TCU's defense, and that's about where Ohio State is right now. It's entirely possible that they'll skate through the rest of the season undefeated, but things won't bode well for them in a bowl game against an FSU or a Clemson.

On a side note, we've recently switched data providers from NCAA.org to CFBStats. Go check out their site; it's a great resource.


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