Monday, December 31, 2012

Week 19: Monday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Mon Dec 31 20:58:04 2012

LSU24Clemson25Final
USC7Georgia Tech21Final
Tulsa31Iowa St.17Final
Vanderbilt38North Carolina St.24Final

Saturday, December 29, 2012

Week 18: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sat Dec 29 23:44:04 2012

Navy28Arizona St.62Final
TCU16Michigan St.17Final
Texas31Oregon St.27Final
Air Force14Rice33Final
West Virginia14Syracuse38Final

2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part VI


Today is Part VI of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl
    Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Northwestern Wildcats
  • Chick-fil-A Bowl
    Clemson Tigers vs LSU Tigers
  • Capital One Bowl
    Georgia Bulldogs vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
  • Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
    Michigan State Spartans vs TCU Horned Frogs
  • Valero Alamo Bowl
    Oregon State Beavers vs Texas Longhorns
Full previews after the jump ....

Friday, December 28, 2012

Week 18: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Fri Dec 28 22:28:05 2012

Texas Tech34Minnesota31Final
Ohio45LA-Monroe14Final
Virginia Tech13Rutgers10Final

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Week 18: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Thu Dec 27 23:14:05 2012

UCLA26Baylor49Final
SJSU29Bowling Green20Final
Duke34Cincinnati48Final

2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part V


Today is Part V of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • New Era Pinstripe Bowl
    Syracuse Orange vs West Virginia Mountaineers
  • AutoZone Liberty Bowl
    Iowa State Cyclones vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane
  • Russell Athletic Bowl
    Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Virginia Tech Hokies
  • BBVA Compass Bowl
    Mississippi Rebels vs Pittsburgh Panthers
  • Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
    Baylor Bears vs UCLA Bruins
Full previews after the jump ....

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Week 18: Wednesday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Wed Dec 26 20:58:04 2012

Western Kentucky21Central Michigan24Final

2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part IV


Today is Part IV of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
    Rice Owls vs Air Force Falcons
  • Hyundai Sun Bowl
    Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs USC Trojans
  • GoDaddy.com Bowl
    Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Kent State Golden Flashes
  • Discover Orange Bowl
    Florida State Seminoles vs Northern Illinois Huskies
  • Allstate Sugar Bowl
    Florida Gators vs Louisville Cardinals
Full previews after the jump ....

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Week 17: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Thu Dec 20 21:28:04 2012

SDSU6BYU23Final

2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part III


Today is Part III of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
    Fresno State Bulldogs vs SMU Mustangs
  • Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
    North Carolina State Wolfpack vs Vanderbilt Commodores
  • R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
    East Carolina Pirates vs Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
  • MAACO Las Vegas Bowl
    Boise State Broncos vs Washington Huskies
  • San Diego Country Credit Union Poinettia Bowl
    BYU Cougars vs San Diego State Aztecs
Full previews after the jump ....

Monday, December 17, 2012

2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part II


Today is Part II of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • Belk Bowl
    Cincinnati Bearcats vs Duke Blue Devils
  • Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
    Bowling Green Falcons vs San Jose State Spartans
  • Heart of Dallas Bowl
    Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Purdue Boilermakers
  • AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
    Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Ohio Bobcats
  • Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl
    Ball State Cardinals vs UCF Knights
Full previews after the jump ....

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Friday, December 14, 2012

2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part I


Today is Part I of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • Little Caesar's Bowl
    Central Michigan Chippewas vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
  • Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl
    Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
  • Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
    Arizona State Sun Devils vs Navy Midshipmen
  • Gildan New Mexico Bowl
    Arizona Wildcats vs Nevada Wolf Pack
  • Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
    Toledo Rockets vs Utah State Aggies
Full previews after the jump ....

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Week 15: Saturday Predictions


102Army34
 71Navy42
114Army28
 84Navy31


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Monday, December 3, 2012

Week 15: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Texas State (0.115); Louisville (0.107); Pittsburgh (0.105); West Virginia (0.052); Wisconsin (0.049)

Biggest drops: Kansas (-0.071); South Florida (-0.054); Rutgers (-0.053); Georgia Tech (-0.038); Nebraska (-0.033)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 15: Top 25 -- TFG


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.968 0.627 17 38.0 1 9.7 1 148.8 124
2 -- Notre Dame 0.888 0.606 20 25.8 24 11.2 2 157.8 103
3 -- LSU 0.878 0.665 7 26.9 16 12.2 3 162.3 83
4 -- Florida 0.873 0.673 4 26.7 18 12.3 4 156.7 109
5 -- Oregon 0.867 0.551 45 31.8 3 15.0 11 180.8 8
6 -- Texas A&M 0.854 0.666 6 27.7 12 13.7 6 185.4 4
7 -- Florida St. 0.840 0.518 59 29.6 7 15.2 12 156.6 110
8 -- Stanford 0.829 0.560 41 26.8 17 14.3 10 160.7 90
9 -- Oklahoma 0.828 0.638 13 25.9 23 13.8 7 175.6 13
10 +2 Wisconsin 0.828 0.567 36 32.6 2 17.4 30 156.3 111
11 +3 Georgia 0.819 0.588 30 29.6 6 16.2 20 162.9 76
12 -2 Boise St. 0.811 0.394 95 27.6 13 15.4 14 156.1 112
13 -2 South Carolina 0.807 0.603 23 28.0 10 15.8 17 156.9 107
14 -1 Oklahoma St. 0.789 0.630 15 26.2 21 15.5 15 184.0 6
15 -- Kansas St. 0.788 0.606 21 31.7 4 18.8 41 154.8 117
16 -- Michigan 0.777 0.567 37 29.7 5 18.1 36 151.9 123
17 +1 USC 0.763 0.565 38 29.0 8 18.2 37 162.3 82
18 +1 Ohio St. 0.758 0.533 52 28.5 9 18.0 34 162.0 86
19 -2 Nebraska 0.740 0.642 10 26.4 20 17.3 28 168.4 43
20 -- Michigan St. 0.735 0.605 22 19.9 70 13.3 5 163.0 75
21 +1 BYU 0.730 0.443 72 21.1 57 14.2 9 162.9 78
22 +2 Cincinnati 0.722 0.503 62 23.0 43 15.7 16 166.8 52
23 -- TCU 0.721 0.581 32 23.0 41 15.8 18 163.3 70
24 -3 Texas 0.718 0.592 27 26.4 19 18.2 38 159.5 95
25 -- Penn State 0.712 0.537 51 19.9 69 13.9 8 169.8 35
Rankings through games of 2012-12-02

New entries: none.

Dropped out: none.

Well, here we are: the Alabama/Notre Dame matchup we predicted back in week eight. The SEC title game was a bit closer than we projected, but weird plays like a FG blocked and returned for a touchdown -- along with the ensuing 10-point swing -- can do that. While previous years have been the Year of Non-BCS Teams, this was clearly the Year of the SEC. The SEC holds four of the top six spots in the TFG rankings, and two more in the top 15. The numbers point pretty heavily to yet another Alabama championship, so let's look at some of the other teams.

Notre Dame improved 2.1 PPH on offense, but 3.9 PPH on defense. Even small improvements on defense can yield big results in your win-loss record, and 3.9 PPH is big. Even if Notre Dame hadn't improved their offense at all from last year, they'd be ranked fifth in our top 25 right now.

This year's Oregon team is a slight improvement over last year's model; their offensive efficiency went up 1.9 PPH, and their defense only slipped by 0.3 PPH. Another year of progress along those lines, and they'll be the clear #2 team in the country.

Florida State is good, but ... well, still in the ACC.

Stanford experienced a huge drop-off on offense -- a full 7.7 PPH -- but actually picked it up on defense by 2.4 PPH. That was enough to offset the loss of Andrew Luck, and resulted in only a 0.026 drop in expected win percentage.

Wisconsin has been erratic, winning big against "meh" teams, and losing by a field goal to good teams. Seriously, four of their five losses have been by three points (the fifth was by a touchdown to Ohio State). They're another team that had a big drop-off on offense (6.6 PPH) but clawed some of it back on defense (1.0 PPH).

Boise State entered a rebuilding year, and managed to do pretty well for themselves. They had two losses -- one on the road at Michigan State, and a freak loss to SDSU where the Aztecs got 14 of their 21 points off a kickoff return for a TD and an 8-yard drive off a turnover -- and blew through the rest of their schedule. The Broncos will be moving to the Big East next year, and considering the top Big East team in the TFG rankings is (22) Cincinnati, look for Boise to establish themselves as early favorites.

As for the coming bowl season, watch for our annual bowl previews starting in a few weeks.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 15: Top 25 -- RBA


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 1.000 0.549 14 26.4 2 5.9 1 156.3 124
2 -- Oregon 0.992 0.530 50 27.9 1 11.4 20 177.1 3
3 -- Notre Dame 0.992 0.567 1 18.7 38 7.2 2 164.4 98
4 -- Florida 0.983 0.559 5 18.1 43 8.9 3 161.2 114
5 -- LSU 0.975 0.548 16 22.9 9 9.0 4 160.4 116
6 +1 Texas A&M 0.967 0.555 7 25.9 3 11.3 19 173.7 10
7 -1 Georgia 0.967 0.545 24 23.6 6 11.1 14 160.0 117
8 +1 South Carolina 0.950 0.545 26 23.2 7 9.7 6 158.0 123
9 -1 Kansas St. 0.941 0.532 48 25.6 4 14.2 41 165.6 80
10 +4 Stanford 0.932 0.543 29 20.5 23 10.0 8 167.2 60
11 -- Oklahoma 0.932 0.547 19 22.8 10 11.5 24 172.0 15
12 -2 Oklahoma St. 0.932 0.552 11 22.8 11 14.0 39 174.4 7
13 +3 Wisconsin 0.932 0.532 47 22.2 16 11.2 17 161.7 112
14 -1 Ohio St. 0.924 0.530 49 21.5 20 13.0 30 159.8 118
15 -3 Boise St. 0.915 0.466 93 19.0 31 10.1 10 167.9 52
16 -1 Florida St. 0.878 0.547 17 22.0 17 9.3 5 165.6 82
17 -- USC 0.876 0.535 39 22.7 12 11.5 23 167.0 68
18 -- Clemson 0.875 0.527 56 23.2 8 13.9 38 168.1 48
19 +2 Oregon St. 0.851 0.547 18 17.7 49 10.7 13 170.9 21
20 +2 Michigan 0.851 0.545 23 22.5 15 11.2 18 166.4 73
21 +2 Penn State 0.845 0.539 32 16.6 60 9.8 7 164.5 93
22 +2 Utah St. 0.839 0.494 70 17.5 53 11.5 22 169.0 33
23 -4 Nebraska 0.831 0.534 43 18.8 35 12.1 25 167.1 65
24 NA BYU 0.822 0.482 77 16.7 59 10.2 11 168.9 35
25 -- Michigan St. 0.821 0.545 22 15.4 74 10.0 9 166.9 69
Rankings through games of 2012-12-02


New entries: BYU.

Dropped out: Rutgers.

We arrive at the "end" of the regular season (only Army-Navy remaining) with few surprises.  Alabama finishes the regular season in the top spot thanks to the #1 defense and #2 offense.  Oregon and Notre Dame finish tied for second thanks to the #1 offense and #2 defense, respectively.  Looking forward to the national championship game, RBA will favor the Crimson Tide; the only question is how much.

SEC runner-up Georgia finishes tied with Texas A&M for #6 behind #4 Florida and #5 LSU.  Georgia fans should thank their lucky stars that SEC schedule makers continue to push the easy button for the Bulldogs.  They cakewalked through Auburn and Ole Miss from the west as the Gators played LSU and Texas A&M and the Gamecocks played LSU and Arkansas without a healthy Marcus Lattimore.  You have to wonder if the Bulldogs were really the best team in the SEC East.

Personally, I'm most surprised by Stanford finishing the regular season in the top 10.  There's no way I would have expected a team to lose Andrew Luck, beat Oregon, nearly beat Notre Dame on the road, and find their way into the Rose Bowl.  Much like Texas A&M beating Alabama, that's why they play the games.

Our mid-major of the year remains Boise State, but kudos to Utah State finishing the season at #22.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Sunday, December 2, 2012

Week 15: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Arkansas St. (0.065); Pittsburgh (0.038); Texas State (0.034); West Virginia (0.028); Hawaii (0.023)

Biggest drops: Middle Tenn. (-0.060); South Florida (-0.043); Kansas (-0.035); Nebraska (-0.029); South Alabama (-0.019)

Full rankings after the jump.

Saturday, December 1, 2012

Week 14: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Dec 2 00:28:03 2012

Georgia28Alabama32Final
Middle Tenn.0Arkansas St.45Final
Oklahoma St.34Baylor41Final
Cincinnati34Connecticut17Final
LA-Lafayette35FL-Atlantic21Final
Georgia Tech15Florida St.21Final
South Alabama7Hawaii23Final
Texas24Kansas St.42Final
Wisconsin70Nebraska31Final
Boise St.27Nevada21Final
Pittsburgh27South Florida3Final
New Mexico St.28Texas State66Final
Oklahoma24TCU17Final
UCF27Tulsa33Final
Kansas10West Virginia59Final

Week 14: Saturday Predictions


  1Alabama42
 14Georgia29
  1Alabama31
  6Georgia17

 58Arkansas St.37
 88Middle Tenn.32
 63Arkansas St.34
 91Middle Tenn.24

 36Baylor37
 13Oklahoma St.43
 34Baylor35
 10Oklahoma St.41

 69Connecticut25
 24Cincinnati32
 76Connecticut17
 32Cincinnati31

113FL-Atlantic32
 65LA-Lafayette41
112FL-Atlantic24
 69LA-Lafayette35

  7Florida St.45
 56Georgia Tech34
 15Florida St.38
 47Georgia Tech21

114Hawaii35
117South Alabama34
110Hawaii35
116South Alabama24

 15Kansas St.38
 21Texas35
  8Kansas St.41
 30Texas24

 17Nebraska34
 12Wisconsin37
 19Nebraska28
 16Wisconsin24

 64Nevada31
 10Boise St.42
 64Nevada24
 12Boise St.34

 70South Florida28
 29Pittsburgh34
 79South Florida24
 49Pittsburgh25

 23TCU31
  9Oklahoma35
 33TCU28
 11Oklahoma31

106Texas State40
123New Mexico St.32
111Texas State34
124New Mexico St.21

 44Tulsa33
 33UCF35
 50Tulsa27
 36UCF24

 38West Virginia42
102Kansas30
 46West Virginia42
100Kansas17


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 14: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week
Wisconsin Badgers vs Nebraska Cornhuskers

Justin

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
17 Nebraska 0.770 0.616 18 26.1 22 16.1 20 168.0 47
12 Wisconsin 0.806 0.553 42 30.1 5 17.1 27 156.0 114

Where's the SEC title game? GUGS shades towards close games, and TFG thinks the Dawgs are going to get blown out (no offense, Georgia fans). This, however, should be closer. The last time they played this year it was at Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers eeked out a 3-point victory; that kind of loss seems to be Wisconsin's MO this year, with four losses by exactly a field goal (their other loss was to Ohio State by a touchdown). Wisconsin's lost a lot of offense from last year, but has still been (opponent-and-pace-adjusted) very efficient. Nebraska hasn't been a slouch, either, and with both defenses in the "good" but not "outstanding" category, this looks to be a close, relatively high-scoring affair between two top-20 teams. The Badgers will try and slow things down, while the Huskers will pick up the pace a bit. It'll be a good game with no clear favorite, but since Nebraska doesn't have home field advantage this time, look for the Badgers to eek out a close win in the end. The predicted margin is, fittingly, a field goal. Wisconsin 37, Nebraska 34 (55.5%); 161 plays.

Eddie

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
19 Nebraska 0.863 0.533 45 18.7 35 11.5 23 167.1 65
16 Wisconsin 0.882 0.531 47 20.8 22 11.0 16 161.6 112

What?  No Alabama-Georgia?  If you must know, it's because RBA doesn't think that game is going to be very competitive (31-17, Alabama).  On the other hand, Nebraska-Wisconsin should be a pretty good game, even if not matching two teams in the BCS top three.  The formerly unstoppable Badger offense has proven itself inconsistent in 2012, notching a 32.6 +/- 23.6 PPH performance.  Their defense isn't Alabama or Notre Dame, but a 4.8 +/- 12.4 PPH very respectable.  The Huskers sport a similarly effective defense at 3.6 +/- 16.0 PPH.  The key in this game is the Nebraska offensive consistency.  They haven't always been flashy, but the Cornhuskers 21.9 +/- 6.3 PPH demonstrates a predictability that RBA likes.  RBA says that Nebraska wins the Big Ten, 28-24, with 58.8% confidence.



Coin Toss Game of the Week
UCF Knights at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
GUGS Score: 58.5

Eddie

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
50 Tulsa 0.609 0.466 92 16.1 66 14.1 43 171.9 16
36 UCF 0.713 0.461 97 18.4 38 14.1 40 163.5 104

For what it's worth, history is on my side.  Tulsa beat UCF three weeks ago, 23-21.  UCF's offense simply isn't consistent.  A 30.7 +/- 24.6 PPH performance will only look good because Tulsa isn't very good on defense at 11.2 +/- 5.8 PPH.  The only reason why Tulsa will win this game is because UCF's 10.0 +/- 8.3 PPH defense is even worse.  It will be ugly, but expect a 27-24 Tulsa victory with 54.4% confidence.


Justin

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
44 Tulsa 0.598 0.421 81 20.0 70 17.1 28 178.3 10
33 UCF 0.636 0.354 114 24.9 27 19.9 50 156.9 108

I'm not sure a two-point victory at home is really having history on your side, but whatever. This game is a tale of two teams with opposing strengths and weaknesses: Tulsa has no offense, but a relatively solid D, while UCF has a good offense, but a middling defense. These teams are also on opposite ends of the tempo spectrum; Tulsa will want to go-go-go, while UCF is a more patient team. This will be close, but TFG thinks the Knights will get revenge for their loss a few weeks ago. UCF 35, Tulsa 33 (54.0%); 167 plays.




SystemExpected
W - L
Expected
% Correct
RBA 10.68 -  4.32 71.17%
TFG 10.65 -  4.35 71.03%