Saturday, September 29, 2012

Week 5: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Sep 30 08:31:40 2012

Miami-OH56Akron49Final
Mississippi14Alabama33Final
Tulsa49UAB42Final
Oregon St.38Arizona35Final
Western Kentucky26Arkansas St.13Final
Clemson45Boston College31Final
SDSU40Fresno St.52Final
Arizona St.27California17Final
Missouri21UCF16Final
Virginia Tech24Cincinnati27Final
UCLA42Colorado14Final
Buffalo17Connecticut24Final
UTEP18East Carolina28Final
North Texas20FL-Atlantic14Final
Middle Tenn.49Georgia Tech28Final
Tennessee44Georgia51Final
Rice14Houston35Final
Penn State35Illinois7Final
Texas Tech24Iowa St.13Final
Minnesota13Iowa31Final
Ball St.43Kent St.45Final
South Carolina38Kentucky17Final
Ohio37Massachusetts34Final
North Carolina St.37Miami-FL44Final
Ohio St.17Michigan St.16Final
Idaho0North Carolina66Final
Wisconsin27Nebraska30Final
UTSA35New Mexico St.14Final
Boise St.32New Mexico29Final
Central Michigan24Northern Ill.55Final
Indiana29Northwestern44Final
Texas41Oklahoma St.36Final
Washington St.26Oregon51Final
Marshall41Purdue51Final
Troy31South Alabama10Final
Florida St.30South Florida17Final
TCU24SMU16Final
Louisville21Southern Miss.17Final
Nevada34Texas State21Final
FIU20LA-Lafayette48Final
Arkansas10Texas A&M58Final
LA-Monroe63Tulane10Final
Colorado St.21Air Force42Final
SJSU12Navy0Final
UNLV13Utah St.35Final
LA Tech44Virginia38Final
Duke34Wake Forest27Final
Baylor63West Virginia70Final
Toledo37Western Michigan17Final

Week 5: Saturday Predictions


 66Air Force43
111Colorado St.30
 49Air Force38
108Colorado St.20

118Akron33
106Miami-OH39
123Akron20
 99Miami-OH31

  1Alabama49
 70Mississippi20
  1Alabama55
 78Mississippi10

 60Arizona33
 55Oregon St.31
 48Arizona31
 69Oregon St.24

 72Arkansas St.36
 79Western Kentucky31
 79Arkansas St.28
 80Western Kentucky24

 83Boston College30
 27Clemson36
 77Boston College24
 33Clemson31

 41California33
 25Arizona St.35
 50California24
 21Arizona St.31

 26Cincinnati31
 21Virginia Tech33
 24Cincinnati31
 37Virginia Tech20

109Colorado30
 53UCLA40
116Colorado21
 39UCLA38

 43Connecticut39
112Buffalo24
 68Connecticut35
113Buffalo14

 95East Carolina36
 96UTEP32
 84East Carolina31
 94UTEP24

116FL-Atlantic31
 86North Texas37
119FL-Atlantic20
 96North Texas28

 62Fresno St.38
 57SDSU35
 54Fresno St.31
 57SDSU28

 18Georgia43
 54Tennessee31
  5Georgia34
 38Tennessee17

 38Georgia Tech47
107Middle Tenn.31
 30Georgia Tech56
105Middle Tenn.13

 51Houston45
100Rice34
 32Houston45
101Rice24

 69Illinois28
 34Penn State29
 72Illinois20
 36Penn State27

 52Iowa35
 80Minnesota28
 60Iowa31
 90Minnesota21

 59Iowa St.34
 45Texas Tech32
 47Iowa St.31
 56Texas Tech24

108Kent St.35
 98Ball St.33
107Kent St.24
 97Ball St.27

 82Kentucky26
  8South Carolina38
 75Kentucky10
  7South Carolina38

 81LA-Lafayette38
 85FIU34
 82LA-Lafayette31
 98FIU24

121Massachusetts24
 64Ohio44
122Massachusetts20
 40Ohio42

 42Miami-FL34
 47North Carolina St.31
 59Miami-FL27
 52North Carolina St.24

 16Michigan St.32
 19Ohio St.30
 15Michigan St.27
 19Ohio St.21

 89Navy39
 78SJSU37
 83Navy31
 76SJSU28

 20Nebraska38
 12Wisconsin37
 20Nebraska28
  8Wisconsin29

120New Mexico18
  3Boise St.46
111New Mexico7
 11Boise St.59

115New Mexico St.46
NAUTSA53
114New Mexico St.31
109UTSA27

 44North Carolina44
104Idaho29
 51North Carolina38
104Idaho7

 65Northern Ill.45
101Central Michigan33
 53Northern Ill.41
110Central Michigan24

 61Northwestern42
 97Indiana31
 45Northwestern38
 91Indiana21

 17Oklahoma St.40
 13Texas37
 10Oklahoma St.35
 23Texas27

  4Oregon50
 99Washington St.27
  3Oregon42
 89Washington St.14

 56Purdue40
 94Marshall30
 62Purdue38
 88Marshall21

 90SMU25
  9TCU39
 81SMU17
 17TCU35

NASouth Alabama29
 91Troy34
120South Alabama24
 95Troy28

 58South Florida28
  6Florida St.38
 55South Florida20
  6Florida St.28

 77Southern Miss.34
 40Louisville36
 74Southern Miss.28
 34Louisville31

 14Texas A&M39
 30Arkansas33
 16Texas A&M38
 43Arkansas20

NATexas State30
 31Nevada41
124Texas State20
 41Nevada45

119Tulane27
 74LA-Monroe40
121Tulane21
 73LA-Monroe31

113UAB30
 46Tulsa42
115UAB20
 67Tulsa38

 50UCF31
 28Missouri33
 58UCF21
 31Missouri27

 68Utah St.44
110UNLV30
 65Utah St.38
112UNLV21

 87Virginia31
 35LA Tech36
 85Virginia24
 35LA Tech31

 88Wake Forest36
 84Duke34
 70Wake Forest34
 71Duke28

 24West Virginia46
 33Baylor40
 25West Virginia38
 27Baylor31

 76Western Michigan38
 63Toledo36
 87Western Michigan27
 63Toledo31



Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 5: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week
Wisconsin Badgers at Nebraska Cornhuskers

Justin

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
20 Nebraska 0.759 0.555 39 26.3 21 16.6 23 165.5 53
12 Wisconsin 0.822 0.523 46 34.0 2 18.5 34 152.8 118

By the end of last year, Wisconsin had the best offense in FBS. At 39.2 PPH, they were a full 2.0 PPH ahead of the second-best offense, Alabama. Given that it's no wonder that TFG is still positive on Wisconsin, even though their efficiency has plummeted. Oddly, though, their defensive efficiency hasn't budged an inch from that ranking, which is giving them a little leeway to be anemic on the offensive end. The Cornhuskers, though, have gained as much on offense as Wisconsin has lost (+4.3 PPH on the year) while only slipping 0.6 PPH on defense. TFG gives this coin toss to Nebraska, but if Wisconsin's offense further proves that it's not anywhere near as potent as last year, this could get out of hand quickly. Nebraska 38, Wisconsin 37 (50.8%); 159 plays.

Eddie

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
20 Nebraska 0.873 0.532 44 20.8 21 12.5 27 167.0 60
8 Wisconsin 0.950 0.533 41 20.9 20 12.2 26 161.5 110

The Badgers haven't looked very good this season, squeaking past FCS Northern Iowa and Utah State and losing to Oregon State. However, they were so good last year that it's taking a while to bring them back down to earth. The Badger offense has dropped from 37.9 +/- 18.3 PPH under Russell Wilson to 23.3 +/- 4.9 PPH under Danny O'Brien, but at least it's consistent, right? Wisconsin's defense is still playing tolerably well at 5.1 +/- 14.2 PPH to compensate for the offensive malaise. Nebraska has put up a bunch of points at 28.1 +/- 14.6 PPH but lost their only game against BCS competition. Unfortunately, this isn't quite as good as the Badgers.  RBA thinks that this game is going to be really good, but the Badgers should escape Lincoln with a 29-28 victory at 66.1% confidence.



Coin Toss Game of the Week
Virginia Tech Hokies vs Cincinnati Bearcats
GUGS Score: 67.0

Eddie

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
24 Cincinnati 0.817 0.509 64 18.5 35 11.2 22 169.1 32
37 Virginia Tech 0.718 0.527 59 16.2 54 11.0 18 158.4 121

RBA has never been a fan of the Hokies. Although they win quite a few games, they just can't seem to perform defensively against strong competition. The Hokie defensive efficiency is only 0.0 +/- 26.9 PPH, meaning that they faceplant against good teams. The Bearcats aren't the best team on the planet, but they're solid on both sides of the ball, averaging 26.0 +/- 15.1 PPH on offense and 5.6 +/- 11.1 PPH on defense.  Virginia Tech simply won't be able to keep up with a 23.1 +/- 13.7 PPH offense.  RBA picks Cincinnati, 31-20, with 55.8% confidence.


Justin

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
26 Cincinnati 0.712 0.517 50 24.7 26 17.2 24 166.9 44
21 Virginia Tech 0.741 0.502 58 22.2 45 14.6 14 159.2 93

Ah yes. The ACC versus the Big East. Two of the least predictable conferences. Technically my computer has a made a prediction -- and a tentative one at that -- but who knows how this will play out. The Hokies have a middle-of-the-pack offense and a just-below-top-tier defense, while Cincinnati is a bit more balanced in their place in the world (26th-best offense, 24th-best defense). The Bearcats tend to play slightly faster than the Hokies, but not by much. Expect this to be a very grind-it-out game between two strong but not impressive programs. And may my pick be correct. Virginia Tech 33, Cincinnati 31 (53.7%); 163 plays.

2012 Coin Toss Record: TIED at 2.



SystemExpected
W - L
Expected
% Correct
RBA 36.94 - 12.06 75.40%
TFG 35.25 - 13.75 71.94%

Friday, September 28, 2012

Week 5: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Fri Sep 28 20:24:02 2012

Hawaii0BYU47Final

Week 5: Friday Predictions


 32BYU42
 93Hawaii28
 29BYU48
 93Hawaii17


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Week 5: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Thu Sep 27 22:32:02 2012

Stanford13Washington17Final

Week 5: Thursday Predictions


 67Washington31
  5Stanford43
 42Washington21
  4Stanford38


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Monday, September 24, 2012

Week 5: Top 25 -- RBA


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 1.000 0.551 13 26.5 2 4.3 1 156.4 123
2 -- LSU 0.992 0.549 18 23.8 6 7.5 2 160.0 116
3 -- Oregon 0.984 0.530 52 24.6 4 11.0 17 176.6 3
4 -- Stanford 0.975 0.543 28 23.1 9 11.0 16 167.0 58
5 +8 Georgia 0.975 0.546 22 24.0 5 11.6 23 160.1 115
6 +3 Florida St. 0.967 0.549 14 23.0 10 9.1 5 165.8 79
7 +1 South Carolina 0.959 0.541 32 22.9 11 7.9 4 157.7 122
8 +2 Wisconsin 0.950 0.533 41 20.9 20 12.2 26 161.5 110
9 -4 Oklahoma 0.949 0.545 25 19.1 30 9.5 7 171.6 14
10 +1 Oklahoma St. 0.941 0.549 15 26.7 1 15.9 57 173.7 7
11 -4 Boise St. 0.941 0.464 95 21.6 16 9.3 6 168.5 42
12 -- USC 0.924 0.533 43 22.0 13 10.5 14 166.9 61
13 -7 Notre Dame 0.922 0.565 2 19.1 31 9.6 10 164.6 90
14 +4 Florida 0.907 0.559 6 19.0 32 7.7 3 161.4 111
15 -- Michigan St. 0.897 0.543 27 17.0 46 9.5 8 167.0 59
16 +1 Texas A&M 0.892 0.556 9 22.0 12 9.6 9 172.8 12
17 -1 TCU 0.890 0.462 96 20.3 23 11.1 20 167.6 51
18 -4 Kansas St. 0.875 0.532 45 23.5 7 14.6 45 165.9 76
19 +1 Ohio St. 0.873 0.531 47 19.3 29 11.8 24 159.3 117
20 -1 Nebraska 0.873 0.532 44 20.8 21 12.5 27 167.0 60
21 +2 Arizona St. 0.851 0.532 46 21.7 15 11.1 21 173.9 6
22 -- Michigan 0.825 0.545 23 21.8 14 12.8 32 167.3 54
23 NA Texas 0.821 0.520 61 21.4 17 12.6 29 168.0 45
24 -- Cincinnati 0.817 0.509 64 18.5 35 11.2 22 169.1 32
25 NA West Virginia 0.815 0.533 42 21.3 19 14.9 51 166.6 67
Rankings through games of 2012-09-23


New entries: Texas, West Virginia.

Dropped out: Mississippi St., Virginia Tech.

I've been sick since Saturday morning, so please excuse the delay on the top 25.

This week's big mover is Georgia thanks to whipping the crap out of Vanderbilt.  This gives the SEC three of the top five spots in the RBA poll.  The other big mover is Notre Dame, but in the negative direction.  Michigan's defense isn't that great, and the Irish managed to score only 13 against them, changing their offensive efficiency to 30.1 +/- 22.0 PPH from 29.1 +/- 19.5 PPH.  This means that RBA expects them to score fewer points against strong competition, causing them to drop in the rankings.

Also, what Justin says about my office is true.  I've stood by my Razorbacks for the past 13 years.  I remained a fan when they got thumped by USC 70-17 en route to a 4-7 season.  I stood by them when nut-job fans filed Freedom of Information Act requests against Houston Nutt as rogue boosters harassed players.  I stood by the program when they fired Bobby Petrino for violating employment law.  I supported them when they lost to Louisiana-Monroe earlier this year.  I can tolerate losing 52-0 to Alabama, but I can't tolerate my team giving up.  I'm taking a hiatus from my Razorbacks until they decide to stop being self-destructive.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 5: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Penn State (0.190); Fresno St. (0.133); Utah St. (0.096); Western Kentucky (0.092); Oregon St. (0.067)

Biggest drops: Temple (-0.181); Vanderbilt (-0.133); Iowa (-0.130); Illinois (-0.113); Syracuse (-0.111)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 5: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Virginia Tech (0.092); Western Kentucky (0.091); Mississippi (0.087); North Carolina (0.063); Central Michigan (0.061)

Biggest drops: Vanderbilt (-0.099); Arizona (-0.092); Southern Miss. (-0.086); Utah (-0.081); Air Force (-0.069)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 5: Top 25 -- TFG


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.984 0.564 35 39.3 1 7.6 1 147.3 121
2 -- LSU 0.934 0.594 20 31.7 4 11.0 2 155.1 111
3 -- Boise St. 0.882 0.480 68 30.6 8 13.6 7 157.2 101
4 +4 Oregon 0.879 0.573 28 31.5 5 14.2 10 181.1 6
5 +1 Stanford 0.872 0.564 34 33.7 3 15.7 19 157.3 100
6 -2 Florida St. 0.869 0.552 41 30.7 7 14.4 13 156.8 105
7 -2 Oklahoma 0.853 0.613 10 23.9 30 11.8 3 175.1 14
8 +1 South Carolina 0.849 0.500 59 28.8 12 14.4 11 153.8 115
9 +1 TCU 0.848 0.375 106 28.6 14 14.4 12 156.9 102
10 +5 Florida 0.833 0.605 16 26.4 19 13.9 9 156.8 103
11 -- Notre Dame 0.828 0.596 19 23.7 31 12.7 4 160.3 87
12 -5 Wisconsin 0.822 0.523 46 34.0 2 18.5 34 152.8 118
13 +1 Texas 0.814 0.456 81 27.5 18 15.3 15 160.6 86
14 -2 Texas A&M 0.812 0.608 13 23.1 35 12.9 5 182.7 4
15 +2 USC 0.802 0.581 26 27.7 17 15.9 21 163.8 63
16 +2 Michigan St. 0.791 0.555 38 22.6 41 13.2 6 161.6 81
17 -4 Oklahoma St. 0.789 0.587 23 30.2 10 17.8 28 183.2 3
18 +3 Georgia 0.789 0.482 64 30.0 11 17.7 27 165.5 51
19 -3 Ohio St. 0.760 0.457 80 25.9 24 16.3 22 160.8 85
20 -1 Nebraska 0.759 0.555 39 26.3 21 16.6 23 165.5 53
21 NA Virginia Tech 0.741 0.502 58 22.2 45 14.6 14 159.2 93
22 +1 Kansas St. 0.735 0.605 15 31.5 6 20.9 60 153.9 114
23 +1 Michigan 0.723 0.590 22 30.4 9 20.7 58 155.1 112
24 -4 West Virginia 0.722 0.502 57 28.2 16 19.2 40 169.4 33
25 NA Arizona St. 0.719 0.586 24 26.2 22 18.0 30 168.5 37
Rankings through games of 2012-09-23

New entries: Virginia Tech, Arizona St..

Dropped out: Cincinnati, Missouri.


Despite last week's plea for Alabama to stumble, it appears that didn't happen. What did happen, though, is that Oregon stepped up and thumped then-(38) Arizona in a major way. Florida State struggled against (32) Clemson, but finally put them away in the 4th quarter; allowing your opponent to score 37 points, though, isn't exactly the path to the BCS title game.

The story of the rankings right now, though, is change from last year. There are definitely fundamental changes from last year -- Andrew Luck isn't at Stanford, Kellen Moore isn't at Boise, Wisconsin can't seem to run the ball, and Arkansas is in free-fall to the point that Eddie has renounced his Hawgs and purged his office of Razorback paraphernalia -- but since the four games played this year only account for just less than half of the weight of the rankings so far, TFG is still figuring that out. And while some teams are managing to hold on to some appearance of previous glory (see: Stanford), others have fallen off the cliff (see: Arkansas and Houston).

There's still a lot of football left to play, but at the risk of sounding like an Alabama homer I'd like to leave you with these few statistics:

  • Alabama has had 252 plays from scrimmage;
  • They have scored on 28 of these (11.1%);
  • In the 224 plays where they haven't scored, they got first downs on 84 of them (37.5%); meaning
  • Alabama has either scored or picked up a first down on 44.4% of their plays.

And while it's likely that Alabama won't win the title, it's difficult to imagine someone being able to stand up to them right now.

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Saturday, September 22, 2012