Monday, November 26, 2012

Week 14: Top 25 -- TFG


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.973 0.612 19 38.3 1 9.1 1 147.8 124
2 -- Notre Dame 0.887 0.606 21 25.7 24 11.3 2 157.6 103
3 -- LSU 0.880 0.669 7 27.1 14 12.2 3 162.5 80
4 +1 Florida 0.874 0.674 5 26.7 18 12.3 4 156.7 109
5 +1 Oregon 0.865 0.548 44 31.8 2 15.1 11 180.5 8
6 +1 Texas A&M 0.857 0.671 6 27.9 12 13.6 6 185.5 4
7 -3 Florida St. 0.846 0.520 57 30.6 4 15.5 16 157.1 105
8 -- Stanford 0.840 0.557 41 26.9 16 13.9 7 161.1 88
9 -- Oklahoma 0.832 0.636 12 26.4 21 13.9 8 176.1 13
10 +1 Boise St. 0.817 0.379 100 27.5 13 15.1 12 157.0 107
11 +2 South Carolina 0.808 0.602 23 28.0 11 15.8 17 157.0 106
12 -2 Wisconsin 0.806 0.553 42 30.1 5 17.1 27 156.0 114
13 -1 Oklahoma St. 0.803 0.633 14 27.1 15 15.4 14 183.1 7
14 +2 Georgia 0.800 0.534 50 28.4 10 16.3 21 161.6 87
15 -- Kansas St. 0.782 0.601 24 31.2 3 18.7 42 154.7 118
16 -2 Michigan 0.781 0.571 34 30.0 6 18.0 35 152.0 123
17 -- Nebraska 0.770 0.616 18 26.1 22 16.1 20 168.0 47
18 -- USC 0.763 0.563 36 29.0 7 18.2 38 162.2 81
19 -- Ohio St. 0.762 0.530 52 28.8 8 18.1 37 162.1 83
20 +3 Michigan St. 0.734 0.603 22 20.1 68 13.4 5 163.1 74
21 -1 Texas 0.733 0.576 33 26.7 19 17.8 33 159.3 96
22 -- BYU 0.726 0.442 73 21.1 58 14.3 10 162.7 79
23 +2 TCU 0.726 0.559 38 23.3 36 15.8 18 163.7 68
24 NA Cincinnati 0.716 0.507 61 22.3 48 15.5 15 166.3 56
25 NA Penn State 0.713 0.535 49 20.1 66 14.0 9 169.9 34
Rankings through games of 2012-11-25

New entries: Cincinnati, Penn State.

Dropped out: Clemson, Oregon St..

Well it appears that will finally happen. As far back as week 8 we were predicting an Alabama/Notre Dame championship game. Of course we expected Alabama to be the undefeated one, with Notre Dame as more likely to lose. Granted, Alabama still has to beat Georgia in the SEC title game. TFG doesn't think too much of Georgia, but a lot of that skepticism comes from early-season games against Florida-Atlantic (gave up 20 points), Tennessee (44 points), and Kentucky (24 points). More recently, though, Georgia has clamped down on defense and only allowed a combined 29 points against Florida, Mississippi, Auburn, and Georgia Tech.

On a side note, while it would be interesting to see an Ohio State/Notre Dame championship game -- there are only two undefeated teams left, after all -- it's probably better for the Buckeyes that they're going to have to sit this one out. Currently TFG places them in the neighborhood of the 2006 Boise State team that went undefeated and beat Alabama in the Fiesta Bowl. In other words: they're good, but nowhere near as good as Notre Dame. A Notre Dame/Ohio State championship game would be about on the same level as a Notre Dame/USC game. Urban Meyer definitely got the offense clicking this year to the tune of 28.8 PPH, but their defense still needs work (18.1 PPH).

Previously we've shown that most BCS champions end up in the top 3 on either offense or defense, and in the top ten on the other side of the ball. Right now the only teams that meets those criteria is Alabama, although Oregon is close (2nd-best offense, 11th-best defense). The Irish have an amazing defense -- second-best in FBS, at 11.3 PPH -- but their offense barely eeks into the top 25 at 25.7 PPH; that's on par with (17) Nebraska.

The most the Irish can hope for right now is that Georgia upsets Alabama in the SEC title game. The Irish have an 18% chance against the Crimson Tide, but a 66% chance against Georgia. So for all those Notre Dame fans and Alabama haters: Go Dawgs.


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