Rankings through games of 2012-11-18
New entries: Oregon St..
Dropped out: Cincinnati.
In the eyes of TFG, most of the top SEC teams had a bye week since we ignore games against FCS teams. Oregon and KSU weren't as lucky, and stumbled down the home stretch. Baylor over Kansas State was actually the bigger upset, since (a) Oregon wasn't quite as good as most people believed, and (b) Stanford's decline from last year wasn't as big as most people believed. It really was going to be a toss-up between two top teams, and once again Stanford took a national championship contender to overtime. This time, though, Oregon botched their OT score and Stanford took advantage.
TFG still has the Crimson Tide as the clear top team, but there's a huge gap to a very muddled picture after that. LSU and Notre Dame are effectively tied for second, while a reasonably strong Florida State team takes fourth; the Seminoles are a 17-16 NC State upset from being in the national title picture. Florida, Oregon, and Texas A&M are tied for fifth, Stanford and Oklahoma fight for eighth, and Wisconsin and Boise State are one one-thousandths of a point apart for tenth.
Kansas State drops four spots from 11th to 15th, as their suspect defense finally caught up with them. Ohio State -- the lone other undefeated team -- has failed to impress all year and remains mired down in 19th.
As it stands, the road to a Notre Dame-Alabama national title game rests in the hands of USC, Auburn, and Georgia. Look for an update tomorrow about the specific odds of various scenarios.
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