Monday, November 19, 2012

Week 13: Top 25 -- TFG


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.968 0.631 14 38.0 1 9.8 1 148.1 124
2 +3 Notre Dame 0.888 0.596 26 25.8 23 11.3 2 159.1 96
3 -1 LSU 0.886 0.670 3 28.1 11 12.4 4 162.1 81
4 -- Florida St. 0.868 0.496 64 30.7 5 14.4 11 156.6 110
5 +2 Florida 0.859 0.649 9 25.0 25 12.2 3 156.2 113
6 -3 Oregon 0.859 0.533 52 31.4 3 15.3 15 180.4 8
7 -1 Texas A&M 0.858 0.675 2 27.0 19 13.1 5 185.5 4
8 +1 Stanford 0.838 0.554 44 27.1 18 14.0 8 161.0 86
9 -1 Oklahoma 0.836 0.624 18 26.2 22 13.6 7 174.1 19
10 -- Wisconsin 0.818 0.550 46 31.1 4 17.1 29 154.3 119
11 +1 Boise St. 0.817 0.374 101 27.6 15 15.2 14 156.9 105
12 +2 Oklahoma St. 0.810 0.617 20 27.0 20 15.1 13 181.2 7
13 -- South Carolina 0.798 0.585 30 28.0 12 16.2 18 157.2 103
14 +3 Michigan 0.786 0.557 40 30.3 6 18.0 32 152.1 123
15 -4 Kansas St. 0.785 0.604 24 31.6 2 18.8 43 154.8 116
16 -1 Georgia 0.783 0.527 54 28.6 10 17.1 27 161.7 84
17 +1 Nebraska 0.771 0.628 15 27.2 17 16.7 23 168.7 40
18 -2 USC 0.764 0.535 51 29.0 8 18.1 33 163.9 65
19 -- Ohio St. 0.754 0.512 59 28.7 9 18.3 38 163.1 75
20 -- Texas 0.746 0.562 39 27.9 14 18.1 34 159.9 93
21 -- Clemson 0.732 0.498 62 28.0 13 18.8 41 174.9 16
22 +1 BYU 0.728 0.485 65 20.7 60 14.0 9 162.3 80
23 -1 Michigan St. 0.728 0.627 16 19.9 72 13.4 6 163.6 68
24 NA Oregon St. 0.726 0.604 23 24.7 28 16.8 25 163.3 71
25 -1 TCU 0.721 0.542 48 23.9 30 16.3 19 164.4 63
Rankings through games of 2012-11-18

New entries: Oregon St..

Dropped out: Cincinnati.

In the eyes of TFG, most of the top SEC teams had a bye week since we ignore games against FCS teams. Oregon and KSU weren't as lucky, and stumbled down the home stretch. Baylor over Kansas State was actually the bigger upset, since (a) Oregon wasn't quite as good as most people believed, and (b) Stanford's decline from last year wasn't as big as most people believed. It really was going to be a toss-up between two top teams, and once again Stanford took a national championship contender to overtime. This time, though, Oregon botched their OT score and Stanford took advantage.

TFG still has the Crimson Tide as the clear top team, but there's a huge gap to a very muddled picture after that. LSU and Notre Dame are effectively tied for second, while a reasonably strong Florida State team takes fourth; the Seminoles are a 17-16 NC State upset from being in the national title picture. Florida, Oregon, and Texas A&M are tied for fifth, Stanford and Oklahoma fight for eighth, and Wisconsin and Boise State are one one-thousandths of a point apart for tenth.

Kansas State drops four spots from 11th to 15th, as their suspect defense finally caught up with them. Ohio State -- the lone other undefeated team -- has failed to impress all year and remains mired down in 19th.

As it stands, the road to a Notre Dame-Alabama national title game rests in the hands of USC, Auburn, and Georgia. Look for an update tomorrow about the specific odds of various scenarios.


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