Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Week 12: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG


Odds as of games through 2012-11-11

In last week's post we discussed how it looked like we were on a collision course with four undefeated teams come mid-December. Obviously Texas A&M had other ideas, and for now Alabama's national title hopes are on hold. For the Crimson Tide to be back in the game, at most one of Oregon, Notre Dame, and Kansas State can remain undefeated. Let's look at each team, keeping in mind the A&M game proves that even a 90% favorite is not a 100% lock to win a game.

Notre Dame is the second-strongest undefeated team remaining, but also the most likely to win out. They only have one difficult game remaining: a trip to USC, where the Irish are "only" 2-to-1 favorites. Assuming they can win both games -- a 60.3% likelihood -- they can then sit back and wait for the title game to come to them.

Kansas State is the weakest of the three legitimate title teams left, thanks to a suspect defense. They've currently got a 46.1% chance of beating both Baylor and Texas; they'll be favorites in both games, but not by much. The Big XII doesn't have a title game, so KSU can also take a breather if they get to December 2nd with no losses.

Oregon is a more interesting case study, mainly due to the computer's uncertainty about their actual strength. TFG only uses the final score and number of plays to determine a team's efficiency (after adjusting for strength of opponent). The Ducks have had games where they've blown out their opponent from the start and only allowed a few garbage TDs at the end (e.g., ASU and Washington), but they've also had games where they haven't been able to pull away until the second half (e.g., Washington State and Cal). And then there's the USC game; surrendering 51 points isn't the best way to make a statement against the only TFG-top-25 team you've played all year. TFG says the Ducks have a 43.9% chance of finishing out the regular season undefeated, but throw in a Pac-12 title game against USC and those odds drop to 28.4%. At this point Oregon should hope that UCLA beats USC, thereby putting the Bruins in the Pac-12 title game. That alone will push the Ducks' odds up to 36.5%.

Ohio State? Oh, the cruel fate of being postseason-ineligible while cruising towards a perfect season.

As it stands right now, here are the odds of a few scenarios, sorted by likelihood:

ScenarioOdds

Only ND winning out (likely ND-Alabama title game)23.2%
Only ND and KSU winning out19.9%
None of them winning out (Alabama-someone title game)15.3%
Only KSU winning out (KSU-Alabama title game)13.7%
Only ND and Oregon winning out9.3%
ND, KSU, and Oregon all winning out7.9%
Only Oregon winning out (Oregon-Alabama title game)6.1%
Only Oregon and KSU winning out5.2%

Alabama in title game58.3%
Notre Dame in title game52.4%
KSU in title game38.8%
BCS confusion29.9%
Oregon in title game20.6%


I'll update these odds at the season winds down.

Full schedules and odds after the jump.


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.866 5 0.616 23 25.0 27 11.8 3 160.5 90

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  59 Navy 10 vs  16 Notre Dame 50 150 74.7%
2012/09/08  71 Purdue 17 at  13 Notre Dame 20 172 90.6%
2012/09/15  16 Notre Dame 20 at   9 Michigan St. 3 165 30.7%
2012/09/22  24 Michigan 6 at  11 Notre Dame 13 133 74.3%
2012/10/06  11 Notre Dame 41 vs  44 Miami-FL 3 154 78.0%
2012/10/13  10 Stanford 13 at   4 Notre Dame 20 165 65.5%
2012/10/20  32 BYU 14 at   4 Notre Dame 17 145 84.8%
2012/10/27   6 Notre Dame 30 at   3 Oklahoma 13 166 32.0%
2012/11/03  36 Pittsburgh 26 at   3 Notre Dame 29 199 83.9%
2012/11/10   4 Notre Dame 21 at  97 Boston College 6 150 93.5%
2012/11/17  94 Wake Forest 22 at   5 Notre Dame 39 164 94.0%
2012/11/24   5 Notre Dame 34 at  16 USC 33 161 64.2%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.7
Most difficult game left: November 24, at USC Trojans, 64.2%



Kansas State Wildcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.820 11 0.606 25 33.9 2 18.5 40 153.2 120

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/08  36 Miami-FL 13 at  30 Kansas St. 52 150 65.6%
2012/09/15  86 North Texas 21 at  25 Kansas St. 35 135 90.1%
2012/09/22  23 Kansas St. 24 at   5 Oklahoma 19 156 19.0%
2012/10/06 101 Kansas 16 at  22 Kansas St. 56 151 92.9%
2012/10/13  20 Kansas St. 27 at  47 Iowa St. 21 164 60.4%
2012/10/20  18 Kansas St. 55 at  30 West Virginia 14 147 50.4%
2012/10/27  22 Texas Tech 24 at  14 Kansas St. 55 166 70.4%
2012/11/03  12 Oklahoma St. 30 at  11 Kansas St. 44 169 54.4%
2012/11/10  11 Kansas St. 23 at  21 TCU 10 146 57.1%
2012/11/17  11 Kansas St. 47 at  44 Baylor 37 170 75.4%
2012/12/01  20 Texas 36 at  11 Kansas St. 40 156 61.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-2.2
Most difficult game left: December 1, vs Texas Longhorns, 61.1%



Oregon Ducks
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.870 3 0.512 56 33.3 3 15.5 15 179.8 8

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  64 Arkansas St. 34 at   6 Oregon 57 208 91.2%
2012/09/08  85 Fresno St. 25 at   6 Oregon 42 199 95.1%
2012/09/22  38 Arizona 0 at   8 Oregon 49 200 84.0%
2012/09/29  99 Washington St. 26 vs   4 Oregon 51 194 95.1%
2012/10/06  65 Washington 21 at   4 Oregon 52 182 90.1%
2012/10/18   7 Oregon 43 at  26 Arizona St. 21 194 62.0%
2012/10/27 116 Colorado 14 at   5 Oregon 70 165 98.4%
2012/11/03   7 Oregon 62 at  16 USC 51 191 61.6%
2012/11/10   7 Oregon 59 at  63 California 17 177 84.0%
2012/11/17   9 Stanford 36 at   3 Oregon 40 170 57.6%
2012/11/24   3 Oregon 42 at  28 Oregon St. 32 171 76.2%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-2.3
Most difficult game left: November 17, vs Stanford Cardinal, 57.6%



Absolute Phonies

Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.750 19 0.485 66 29.5 7 19.0 43 162.3 78

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  80 Miami-OH 10 at  22 Ohio St. 56 193 89.0%
2012/09/08  52 UCF 16 at  15 Ohio St. 31 161 83.7%
2012/09/15  47 California 28 at  13 Ohio St. 35 176 84.0%
2012/09/22 114 UAB 15 at  16 Ohio St. 29 165 97.4%
2012/09/29  19 Ohio St. 17 at  16 Michigan St. 16 156 35.5%
2012/10/06  18 Nebraska 38 at  20 Ohio St. 63 166 58.2%
2012/10/13  14 Ohio St. 52 at  86 Indiana 49 195 83.5%
2012/10/20  68 Purdue 22 at  19 Ohio St. 29 164 84.5%
2012/10/27  19 Ohio St. 35 at  23 Penn State 23 175 41.6%
2012/11/03  98 Illinois 22 at  17 Ohio St. 52 175 90.4%
2012/11/17  19 Ohio St. 37 at  10 Wisconsin 40 157 38.7%
2012/11/24  17 Michigan 38 at  19 Ohio St. 36 157 47.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-5.5
Most difficult game left: November 17, at Wisconsin Badgers, 38.7%


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