| Rank | +/- | Team | WinPct | SoS | Adjusted | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||||||
| 1 | -- | Alabama | 0.977 | 0.619 | 21 | 40.4 | 1 | 9.0 | 1 | 149.3 | 124 |
| 2 | -- | LSU | 0.907 | 0.694 | 2 | 27.6 | 15 | 11.1 | 2 | 160.3 | 91 |
| 3 | +1 | Florida St. | 0.881 | 0.508 | 58 | 30.9 | 5 | 13.9 | 9 | 157.1 | 106 |
| 4 | -1 | Notre Dame | 0.873 | 0.653 | 11 | 26.0 | 23 | 12.0 | 4 | 161.5 | 82 |
| 5 | +1 | Florida | 0.872 | 0.669 | 8 | 25.5 | 25 | 11.8 | 3 | 157.7 | 103 |
| 6 | -1 | Oklahoma | 0.866 | 0.635 | 16 | 26.6 | 19 | 12.6 | 5 | 173.4 | 21 |
| 7 | -- | Oregon | 0.854 | 0.507 | 59 | 32.7 | 3 | 16.1 | 17 | 180.0 | 9 |
| 8 | +1 | Texas A&M | 0.850 | 0.638 | 15 | 26.6 | 18 | 13.3 | 7 | 186.3 | 5 |
| 9 | +1 | Stanford | 0.832 | 0.499 | 60 | 28.0 | 12 | 14.8 | 11 | 159.7 | 95 |
| 10 | -2 | Boise St. | 0.819 | 0.410 | 87 | 27.3 | 16 | 15.0 | 13 | 156.1 | 111 |
| 11 | -- | Kansas St. | 0.816 | 0.599 | 27 | 35.3 | 2 | 19.4 | 47 | 153.9 | 118 |
| 12 | +1 | South Carolina | 0.805 | 0.594 | 28 | 28.4 | 8 | 16.1 | 16 | 157.6 | 104 |
| 13 | +1 | Wisconsin | 0.798 | 0.532 | 47 | 31.3 | 4 | 18.0 | 31 | 153.3 | 119 |
| 14 | -2 | Oklahoma St. | 0.785 | 0.630 | 18 | 26.1 | 22 | 15.5 | 15 | 182.3 | 6 |
| 15 | -- | Michigan | 0.777 | 0.549 | 43 | 28.1 | 11 | 17.1 | 25 | 152.5 | 120 |
| 16 | -- | USC | 0.763 | 0.528 | 48 | 29.4 | 7 | 18.4 | 36 | 162.7 | 74 |
| 17 | -- | Ohio St. | 0.757 | 0.489 | 63 | 30.0 | 6 | 19.0 | 43 | 162.1 | 77 |
| 18 | +2 | Nebraska | 0.748 | 0.641 | 14 | 26.5 | 20 | 17.2 | 26 | 168.4 | 44 |
| 19 | +4 | Georgia | 0.747 | 0.538 | 46 | 28.4 | 9 | 18.4 | 35 | 164.3 | 64 |
| 20 | -1 | Michigan St. | 0.738 | 0.619 | 20 | 20.0 | 69 | 13.2 | 6 | 163.0 | 71 |
| 21 | -3 | TCU | 0.738 | 0.510 | 57 | 25.5 | 24 | 16.9 | 21 | 164.5 | 63 |
| 22 | -- | BYU | 0.729 | 0.515 | 54 | 21.0 | 58 | 14.1 | 10 | 160.5 | 89 |
| 23 | +1 | Clemson | 0.722 | 0.521 | 51 | 27.0 | 17 | 18.4 | 34 | 174.0 | 18 |
| 24 | -3 | Texas | 0.716 | 0.567 | 36 | 27.9 | 14 | 19.3 | 46 | 160.7 | 87 |
| 25 | NA | Penn State | 0.714 | 0.515 | 53 | 19.5 | 74 | 13.5 | 8 | 167.8 | 48 |
Rankings through games of 2012-11-04
New entries: Penn State.
Dropped out: Cincinnati.
It might have taken a crazy last-minute drive for Alabama to hold on to their perfect season, but the Crimson Tide keep rolling. Behind them the situation is as muddled as ever. Notre Dame needed two overtimes to put away 29th-ranked Pitt, while Oregon surrendered over 26.7 PPH to 16th-ranked USC. The Ducks have really only needed to really try during the first half of their games this year, so this was their first real top-25 test all year; even though they won, it wasn't particularly encouraging.
Kansas State continues to poll well among people and the BCS computers, but is still not a darling of TFG thanks to their lackluster defensive rating. The Wildcats have only won two games by less than two touchdowns (by six a Iowa State and by five at Oklahoma), but they haven't put in truly dominating defensive performances along the lines of Alabama, Oregon, and (yes) even Notre Dame.
The last several years have shown that to win a national title, you need to have either an offense or a defense that ranks in the top five nationally, and be in the top ten on the other side of the ball. For Kansas State, they satisfy the first by having the second-most-efficient offense in FBS at 35.3 PPH, but only the 47th-best defense at 19.4 PPH; they'd need to improve down to better than 14.1 PPH over the course of three games, and that's highly unlikely to say the least.
Notre Dame has the opposite problem; they currently have the fourth-best defense in FBS at 12.0 PPH, but struggle to score with their 26.0 PPH offense. They'd need to improve by about 2.5 PPH over their last three games to crack the top ten. That's a much more reasonable goal, but they'll need to put up big points against Wake and BC, and then really run it up against USC in their season finale.
Oregon scores in spades, and unlike their BCS Championship contender team from the 2010-11 season, this team is both fast and efficient (32.7 PPH this year versus 26.0 PPH two years ago). Their statistical weak spot -- as always -- is defense, and as always it's hard to tell how much is actual defensive issues and how much is allowing a few touchdowns in garbage time. That's why this week's game against USC was so important, and why it should worry Duck fans that their team gave up so many points to the Trojans.
Finally, we get to Alabama. They may have struggled against LSU by only racking up 13.0 PPH against the Tigers, but that's the most anyone's hung on the Tigers this year. Even South Carolina required more plays to score 21 against LSU. The Crimson Tide scored on 3 of their 52 plays from the line (5.8%) and got first downs on 18 of their non-scoring plays (36.7%). By comparison, SC scored on 3 out of 60 (5.0%) and got 14 first downs on the remaining plays (24.6%). There were similar final scores, but under the hood we can see that Alabama performed better against LSU.
And once again it's worth pointing out that Alabama has both the most efficient offense (40.4 PPH) and most efficient defense (9.0 PPH) in FBS right now. Statistically speaking, LSU was the toughest team that Alabama will face all year, and they escaped Baton Rouge with a win. We play the games for a reason, but there's also a reason the Crimson Tide are the head-and-shoulders favorite to repeat.
Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.
