Monday, October 22, 2012

Week 9: Top 25 -- TFG


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.978 0.594 29 39.9 1 8.7 1 148.1 124
2 -- LSU 0.901 0.645 13 27.3 15 11.3 2 158.6 98
3 -- Oklahoma 0.896 0.614 20 26.9 18 11.4 3 173.6 18
4 +4 Florida 0.879 0.656 12 28.1 11 12.7 5 157.8 103
5 +2 Oregon 0.867 0.539 41 31.5 4 14.9 12 181.3 7
6 -2 Notre Dame 0.866 0.629 18 25.8 26 12.2 4 158.1 101
7 -2 Florida St. 0.862 0.526 47 30.0 6 14.4 10 157.4 105
8 +3 Stanford 0.840 0.591 31 29.5 7 15.2 16 162.4 76
9 +1 Boise St. 0.831 0.403 92 26.9 20 14.2 9 158.0 102
10 +2 Texas A&M 0.827 0.664 10 24.2 32 12.9 6 188.4 1
11 -5 South Carolina 0.821 0.595 28 28.0 12 15.2 15 156.7 109
12 -3 Michigan 0.817 0.569 35 30.1 5 16.6 20 153.7 119
13 +1 Wisconsin 0.802 0.510 51 32.3 3 18.5 35 153.8 118
14 +1 Oklahoma St. 0.789 0.594 30 27.2 17 16.1 18 181.7 6
15 +3 Kansas St. 0.789 0.576 34 33.6 2 19.8 49 153.1 120
16 -- USC 0.786 0.485 65 28.5 9 16.9 23 160.4 90
17 -4 TCU 0.784 0.462 76 28.0 13 16.7 21 160.7 87
18 -1 Texas 0.751 0.604 23 29.0 8 18.7 39 163.2 70
19 -- Ohio St. 0.740 0.496 57 28.5 10 18.7 40 160.5 88
20 -- Michigan St. 0.736 0.587 33 19.9 69 13.2 7 162.5 74
21 NA Mississippi St. 0.722 0.462 75 22.1 47 15.1 14 162.0 78
22 +2 Texas Tech 0.716 0.598 25 25.5 28 17.6 28 177.4 10
23 NA Penn State 0.714 0.506 53 19.7 73 13.7 8 166.3 52
24 NA Rutgers 0.706 0.470 71 22.1 46 15.6 17 157.0 108
25 -4 Nebraska 0.702 0.603 24 26.0 25 18.5 36 168.3 40
Rankings through games of 2012-10-21

Another week, another dominating Alabama victory, another Oregon victory where they allow an inferior team to hang a few touchdowns on them, another close Notre Dame victory thanks to defense.

Florida continues to roll, but part of their jump in the rankings is thanks to the illusion of a dominating offensive performance against South Carolina. The Gators got 21 points off 14 yards of offense (drives of 1, 2, and 11 yards) and another 7 points off a 44 yard drive. Turnovers are notoriously unpredictable, and what should have been a close game quickly turned into a blowout. That's not the norm, though, and I suspect another game or two will cause Florida's offensive efficiency ranking to drift back down to the mid-to-lower teens.

TFG also keeps 1-loss LSU and Oklahoma teams ahead of the undefeated trio of Florida, Oregon, and Notre Dame thanks to strong defensive showings by the Tigers and Sooners. Further down the rankings is BCS #4 Kansas State; the Wildcats have climbed up to #2 in the offensive efficiency rankings, so don't doubt that they're for real. The computer isn't quite sold on their defense, though. Yes, holding West Virginia to two touchdowns is an achievement, but TFG was never really sold on the Mountaineers; their offense was a product of fast play and inferior opponents, and their defense was always suspect. There's a reason the Mountaineers were never ranked higher than 20th, and had already dropped to 25th before their first loss. This means the computer will likely remain skeptical about Kansas State's defense until it faces some real offenses (see also: "why isn't Ohio State ranked higher?").

Another week, another lack of big surprises in college football this year. Dammit.

New entries: Mississippi St., Penn State, Rutgers.

Dropped out: Cincinnati, Georgia, Virginia Tech.

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